PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, JUNE 2017 ANNUAL UPDATE: 2014 THROUGH MAY 2017 Personal income decreased .5 billion (less than -0.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased .2 billion (less than -0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased .1 billion (0.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in June and Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. 2017 Feb. Mar. Apr. May
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PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, JUNE 2017
ANNUAL UPDATE: 2014 THROUGH MAY 2017
Personal income decreased $3.5 billion (less than -0.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $4.2 billion (less than -0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $8.1 billion (0.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in June and Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. 2017 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Percent change from preceding month Personal income: Current dollars 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 Disposable personal income: Current dollars 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 Chained (2009) dollars 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 -0.1 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE): Current dollars 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 Chained (2009) dollars 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 Price indexes: PCE 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago PCE 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 PCE, excluding food and energy 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 The decrease in personal income in June primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income and personal interest income that were partially offset by an increase in compensation of employees (table 3). The June decrease in personal dividend income reflected a return to prior levels after a notable increase in May. The $4.5 billion increase in real PCE in June primarily reflected a $10.0 billion increase in spending for services that was partially offset by a decline of $4.4 billion in spending for nondurable goods and a decline of $2.3 billion in spending for durable goods (table 7). Within services, the primary contributor to the increase was spending for health care. Within goods, gasoline was the leading contributor to the decline. Detailed information on real PCE spending can be found on NIPA Table 2.3.6. Personal outlays increased $14.1 billion in June (table 3). Personal saving was $546.4 billion in June and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.8 percent (table 1). BOX.______________________ Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual update of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with preliminary estimates for June 2017. The update covers the most recent 3 years and the first 5 months of 2017. For more information, see information on the “2017 Annual Update” on BEA’s website. Additionally, the August Survey of Current Business will contain an article that describes the results in detail. __________________________ Updates Revisions to the personal income and outlays estimates reflect the results of the recent annual update of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). These updates, usually made each July, incorporate newly available and more comprehensive source data, as well as improved estimation methodologies. This year’s update covers the period January 2014 through May 2017. Revisions to annual estimates of personal income and outlays for 2014 through 2016 are shown in table 12. Revised and previously published monthly estimates of personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI, and real PCE are shown in table 13. Revised and previously published annual and quarterly estimates are shown in table 14. Personal income was revised up $8.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, in 2014; $94.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, in 2015; and revised down $58.0 billion, or -0.4 percent, in 2016. * For 2014, revisions to personal income and its components were generally small, and primarily reflected a $21.6 billion downward revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income that was partly offset by a $15.8 billion upward revision to personal dividend income. * For 2015, the revision to personal income primarily reflected upward revisions of $68.7 billion to personal dividend income and $64.5 billion to personal interest income that were partially offset by a downward revision of $71.7 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income. * For 2016, the revision to personal income primarily reflected an upward revision of $100.8 billion to personal interest income that was more than offset by downward revisions of $94.3 billion to compensation of employees and $91.0 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income. DPI was revised up $9.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, in 2014; $95.2 billion, or 0.7 percent, in 2015; and revised down $57.2 billion, or -0.4 percent, in 2016. The percent change from the preceding year in real DPI was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 3.6 percent in 2014, revised up 0.7 percentage point to 4.2 percent in 2015, and revised down 1.2 percentage points to 1.4 percent in 2016. Personal outlays was revised down $2.9 billion, or less than -0.1 percent, in 2014; revised up $50.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, in 2015; and revised up $60.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, in 2016. Revisions to personal outlays primarily reflect revisions to PCE. The personal saving rate was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 5.7 percent in 2014, revised up 0.3 percentage point to 6.1 percent in 2015, and revised down 0.8 percentage point to 4.9 percent in 2016. BOX.______________________ QCEW Data Included in the First Quarter of 2017 BEA’s data on wages and salaries for the first quarter of 2017 were based on expedited information from state employment offices across the country. BEA acknowledges the special efforts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the assistance of these state employment offices in providing preliminary data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). __________________________ Next release: August 31, 2017 at 8:30 A.M. EDT Personal Income and Outlays: July 2017 Additional Information Resources Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov: • Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. • Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application. • Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). • For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. • BEA's news release schedule • NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Definitions Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses. Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States. Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments. Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes. The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts. Statistical conventions Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?” Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized. Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year.