Friday , July 19 2019
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Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir is an online journalist with background in computer science and work experience in pension funds. He contributes news reports, fundamental analysis and sentiment forecasts to TopForexNews.com and CommodityBlog.com. His main specialization is the currencies of emerging economies and inter-market correlations with commodity and bond trading.

Articles by Vladimir Vyun

Video: Gold as of July 16, 2019

1 day ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of July 16, 2019. The video starts with recounting of gold’s performance last week. It continues then with an explanation of possible moves of the commodity and advice to traders on how to react to them. The video also talks about fundamental factors that will be affecting bullion. While the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting at the end of the month should have a huge impact on the market, this week trading will likely be range-bound. The video concludes with answers to questions of the viewers, such as when it is better to buy and sell gold.

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Symmetrical Triangle on Daily Chart of Gold as of 2019-07-14

4 days ago

A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart of gold. Being a continuation pattern, it suggests that after a period of consolidation prices will go in the previous direction, up in this instance. It is important to remember that patterns do not predict performance with a 100% guarantee as was demonstrated when a similar pattern formed two weeks ago, but prices broke to the downside before rebounding.
On the present chart, the yellow lines show the symmetrical triangle pattern itself. The cyan line is drawn 10% of the pattern’s width above the upper side of the triangle and offers an entry point in case of an upside breakout. The green line is drawn at the pattern’s width above the upper side of the triangle provides a profit-taking objective for long positions.
You can

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Crude Oil Gets Support from Falling Oil Rigs Count, Gulf of Mexico Production

6 days ago

Futures for West Texas Intermediate crude oil were almost flat while Brent crude ended Friday with gains.
The major positive factor for the commodity was the drop in output from the Gulf of Mexico. Companies were shutting down platforms and rigs and evacuating workers due to the threat from Tropical Storm Barry, which is expected to turn into a hurricane by the weekend.
Another positive factor was the oil rig count released by Baker Hughes. US drillers reduced the number of oil rigs by 4 to 784 this week. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 to 172.
As for negative factors, the report from the International Energy Agency was weighing on crude, predicting oversupply on the market, mainly due to an increase of US output. The report said:
The main message of this Report is that in 1H19 oil supply

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Fundamentals Continue to Support Crude Oil

8 days ago

Futures for crude oil jumped 4% today as fundamental factors remained supportive of the commodity.
The Energy Information Administration reported that US inventories of crude declined by 9.5 million barrels last week, whereas experts had predicted a much smaller decrease by 1.9 million barrels. The official data was in line with the report from the American Petroleum Institute, which also showed a huge draw.
US producers cut almost third of Gulf of Mexico oil production, shutting down operations in preparations to the storm that is expected to turn into a hurricane.
Comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Open Market Committee today solidified the outlook for an interest rate cut this month

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Video: Crude Oil as of July 10, 2019

9 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about crude oil as of July 10, 2019. He starts by discussing the fact that hedge funds and money managers increased their long positions on the commodity. Phil then proceeds with explaining what he expects from crude and what factors can affect it.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Supportive Factors Bolster Prices for Crude Oil

9 days ago

Crude oil rose today with the help of a range of supportive factors. Among them were production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, most notably Russia, and geopolitical tensions in Middle East. Russia’s oil production fell to almost a three-year low after Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft limited intake from the country’s biggest producer Rosneft. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Egypt seized Ukrainian tanker that was carrying presumably Iranian oil when it was passing the Suez Canal ten days ago. Adding to positive factors for crude, the American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 8.129 million barrels last week versus the decline by 3.081 million barrels predicted by analysts.
Not all factors were positive

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Video: Gold as of July 9, 2019

9 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of July 9, 2019. He starts with mentioning the impact nonfarm payrolls had on the commodity and the fact that hedge funds and money managers increased their net long positions last week. Phil next talks about the potential trading range for bullion and various scenarios of price movement. He also briefly mentions platinum and gives bits of advice to traders. The video wraps up with answers to several questions of viewers.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Platinum, Silver, Crude Oil for 8 – 12 July 2019

11 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club provides outlook for gold, platinum, silver, and crude oil for the week of July 8–12, 2019. He starts with discussing factors that were affecting commodity markets last week, specifically better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, which led to significant losses for gold and other precious metals. Phil continues then with discussing charts of the commodities, pointing out support and resistance levels and suggests what actions traders should take this trading week.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Gets Support from Range of Positive Factors

13 days ago

Futures for Brent crude oil logged significant gains today. The West Texas Intermediate grade posted losses but has managed to rebound by now. There were several factors that helped the commodity.
Some analysts speculated that better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls buoyed the commodity. While the report boosted the dollar, hurting commodities priced in the US currency, it sent a positive signal about economic growth, and that was helpful to crude.
Oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped to the lowest level since 2014 as US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela helped to offset rising production in Saudi Arabia.
Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count decrease by 5 to 788 this week. Yet US oil production increased by almost 1.2 million barrels per

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Gold Slumps on NFP, India’s Import Duty

13 days ago

Gold slumped today after the release of US nonfarm payrolls. Most other metals joined the decline, with the exception of palladium. US employers added 224,000 jobs in June versus the consensus forecast of 162,000. The report made the US dollar surge and speculators trim bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch page was showing that markets no longer price in a 50 basis point cut this month and chances for at least some cut were no longer 100%. Yet currently, it looks like bets have returned to about where they were before the report, with a 100% chance for a cut by at least 25 points and about a 6% chance of a 50 point cut.
Another negative factor for the market was the increase of import duties on gold and other precious metals by India today. That was a total

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Gold & Other Metals Rally on Prospects of Monetary Easing

15 days ago

Gold rose and other metals joined the rally today. The key reason for the rally were two nominations from US President Donald Trump for the vacant seats on the Federal Reserve Board. The 
nominees are Christopher Waller, the executive vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Judy Shelton, an economic adviser to the president during his 2016 campaign. It is expected that they will have the same viewpoint as Trump regarding interest rates, specifically that the rates should be lowered.
Meanwhile, the European Council nominated Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, to replace Mario Draghi as the President of the European Central Bank. It is expected that she will preserve Draghi’s dovish stance and ultra loose monetary policy.
Prospects

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Metals Recover After Monday’s Slump

16 days ago

Gold and other metals were recovering after yesterday’s slump today. While the United States and China agreed not escalate the trade conflict further, may market participants are somewhat skeptical about chances of successful resolution of the disagreement between the countries. US President Donald Trump stoked concerns, saying that the trade deal with Beijing “has to be a deal that is somewhat tilted to our advantage”. China was far from being the only country targeted by US tariffs as the Trump administration proposed to put tariffs on $4 billion worth of imports from the European Union. It looks like trade wars are far from being over, and that was helping bullion in its role of a safe haven. The fact that markets have priced in basically a 100% chance of an interest rate cut

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Video: Gold as of July 2, 2019

16 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of July 2, 2019. The video starts with discussion of the recent slump of the metal caused by the US-China trade truce. It continues then with explanation of events that can affect gold in the near future and points out important price levels to watch for.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Natural Gas Crashes on Weather, July 4 Holiday

17 days ago

While crude oil was making attempts to rally, natural gas crashed on Monday. Some market analysts speculated that it is because of relatively cool temperatures at the start of summer. Others argued that the decline was the result of the July 4 holiday in the United States this week. Factories and other big consumers of gas will be closed for the holiday, resulting in lower-than-usual demand for the commodity.
Futures for gas will likely react to the supply report from the Energy Information Administration released later this week. While the report is usually released on Thursday, this week the release was moved to Wednesday due to the holiday. Last week, the data showed a smaller-than-expected growth of US gas inventories, resulting in big gains for the commodity.
Futures for delivery

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Crude Oil Rallies on Monday, Loses Gains Later

17 days ago

Futures for crude oil logged big gains today, rallying more than 2% initially. But later, crude trimmed its gains and by now the Brent grade has lost them completely.
One of the reasons for the initial rally was news about the trade ceasefire between the United States and China. It eased fears about damage that trade wars can deal to the global economy and subsequently to demand for oil.
The factor that was positive specifically for crude was the extension of the oil production cut deal by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The OPEC agreed to extend the deal for 9 months, whereas markets were counting on a 6 month extension. The meeting with the non-OPEC members of the deal will occur tomorrow, but it seems Russia is in favor of the extension. In fact, Russia has already

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Symmetrical Triangle on 4-Hour Chart of Gold as of 2019-06-30

18 days ago

Gold experienced a period of consolidation after a rally, resulting in a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart of the commodity. It is a continuation pattern, meaning that it is not inherently bullish or bearish but suggests that prices will continue moving in the same direction as before consolidation. Considering that in this case the previous move was up, it is reasonable to expect the rally to continue.
On the present chart, yellow lines show the triangle pattern itself. The cyan line, which is situated 10% of the pattern’s width above the upper border of the pattern, suggests an entry point for long positions in case of an upward breakout. The green line, situated at the pattern’s width above the upper border of the pattern, offers a profit-target objective for bullish

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Corn & Wheat Decline, Soybean Rally After USDA Acreage

20 days ago

Corn dropped and soybeans rallied after the US Department of Agriculture released its updated acreage estimates. Wheat joined corn in decline.
The USDA estimated that the area planted by corn was at 91.7 million acres in 2019, up 3% from the previous year. That is below the previous estimate of 92.8 million acres but above market expectations of 86.6 million acres.
Soybeans acreage was pegged at 80.0 million, down 10% from 2018. That is compared to 84.6 million acres in the March estimate and 84.4 million acres forecast by experts.
US farmers seeded 45.6 million acres by wheat this year, down 5% from a year ago.
December futures for delivery of corn dropped 4.32% to $4.3150 per bushel as of 19:32 GMT on CBoT today. Wheat for delivery in September declined 3.75% to $5.2725 per bushel.

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Crude Oil Mixed as Traders Wait for G20 Meeting

20 days ago

Crude oil was mixed today, with the West Texas Intermediate grade falling and the Brent grade rising. Markets were generally directionless on Friday and traders were reluctant to open new positions ahead of the conclusion of the Group of Twenty summit and especially the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit during the weekend.
Afterwards, the Organization of Petroleum Countries and its allies will meet to discuss whether they should prolong the production cut deal. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak voiced hope that the G20 summit will bring more clarity on the global supply-demand balance, helping to make the decision:
The market is currently in a very interesting phase. On one hand, it seems to be balanced in terms

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Commodity Markets Act Confused Ahead of G20 Summit

21 days ago

Markets looked confused today, failing to find a clear trend. Crude oil was swinging between gains and losses. Most precious metals demonstrated losses, but palladium posted a sharp rally. Copper was falling initially but now is bouncing.
The reason for such erratic behavior was the lack of clarity about the outcome of the Group of Twenty summit, specifically trade talks between the United States and China. On one hand, traders felt optimistic about the talks. On the other, optimism was evaporating after officials from both countries made comments, demonstrating tough stance, which led to worries that both sides are perhaps not particularly keen on compromise.
Some analysts explained the losses of gold also by profit-taking after the impressive rally. Additionally, comments from Federal

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Metals Under Pressure as Dollar Firms

22 days ago

Metals were under pressure today as the US dollar firmed after comments of Federal Reserve officials. Not all metals logged losses, though, as platinum was flat and palladium managed to etch some gains. Comments from Fed members revealed that US policy makers were not as dovish as was previously thought and they are not planning to ease monetary policy aggressively. Metals, especially gold, tend to move opposite to interest rates, and prospects for a rate cut was the major supporting factor lately. Still, gold was heading to impressive monthly gains despite the pause in the rally.
Futures for delivery of bullion in August declined 0.44% to $1,412.40 per troy ounce as of 21:21 GMT on COMEX today. Over the month, futures rallied 8.4% and spot price 8.8% — both the biggest monthly gains since

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Video: Crude Oil as of June 26, 2019

22 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about crude oil as of June 26, 2019. He starts with discussing the last week’s surge of oil prices and how the conflict between the United States and Iran affected them. Phil stresses the importance of research-driven trading, mentioning that hedge funds and money managers have increased their long positions on the commodity. He then proceeds with discussing major events that can affect crude in the immediate future.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Video: Gold as of June 25, 2019

23 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club discusses gold as of June 25, 2019. Lately, gold was demonstrating an amazing performance. Will the precious metal be able to sustain its impressive rally? Phil discusses factors that can affect gold’s behavior and suggests what approach traders can take depending on how the commodity behaves.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Loses Gains on Supply Concerns

24 days ago

Crude oil rallied earlier today, bolstered by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Yet by now, the commodity has lost its gains, trading firmly below the opening level. Market analysts speculated that the reason for the decline are concerns about weakening demand. Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency predicted that demand will fall this year.
Specialists expect, though, that the OPEC+ production cut deal will continue to support oil prices. Indeed, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said today that “today, more than ever, international cooperation is important”. With that said, he also stated that “it’s too early to say” whether the deal will be extended due to all uncertainties that can affect such decision. Elaborating further, Novak explained that talking

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Crude Oil Gains as US Plans Sanctions Against Iran

25 days ago

Prices for crude rose today after the United States signaled that it is planning to implement additional sanctions against Iran. While market breathed a sigh of relief because no military actions are planned, it still means potentially much lower supply from the Middle Eastern country. Another supporting factor for the commodity remained the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on the G20 summit this week. Traders hope that the two world’s biggest economies will be able to reach a compromise, avoiding a trade war. And on top of that, markets still expect the OPEC+ production cut deal will be prolonged till at least the end of the year.
Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil in August gained 0.75% to $57.86 per barrel as of 10:29 GMT on NYMEX today. Brent crude edged up 0.15% to $65.30

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Positive Fundamentals Allow Crude Oil Maintain Rally

27 days ago

Prices for crude continued to rally today as fundamentals remained positive for the commodity. Crude had to thank the same factors that were supporting gold: dovishness of the Federal Reserve and, what is more important, the geopolitical tensions in Middle East. And unlike for gold, the potential meeting between leaders of the United States and China is positive for oil, not negative. If the world’s two biggest economies will be able to avoid a trade war that should be very beneficial to the global economy, and that in turn should support demand for oil.
But crude had its negative factor in the form of the US oil rig count from Baker Hughes, which showed an increase of the number of US oil rigs this week. The increase was minimal though, by just 1 rig to the total of 789.
Futures

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Gold Continues to Rise amid Mix of Positive Factors

27 days ago

Gold continued to rise today as fundamentals remained supportive for the metal. The dovishness of the Federal Reserve continued to affect markets, hurting the dollar and bolstering gold. The escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran was fueling demand for bullion as a safe haven. But the commodity has a potential threat in the form of upcoming G20 meeting, and specifically hopes for negotiations between the USA and China. If the two world’s largest economies and big trading partners manage to make progress in trade talks that will remove a big chunk of risk premium from markets, potentially seriously weakening gold.
Futures for delivery of bullion in August advanced 0.44% to $1,403.00 per troy ounce as of 21:23 GMT on COMEX today. Surprisingly, silver did not join the rally

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Video: Gold as of June 21, 2019

27 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club discusses gold as of June 21, 2019. The video starts with discussing the recent surge of prices and explains if it is reasonable to buy gold at such elevated level. It continues then with explanation of factors that will be affecting the commodity in the near future.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Continues to Soar on Middle East Tensions, Dovish Fed Also Helps

28 days ago

Futures for crude oil soared today, with WTI crude rallying more than 5%. The reason for that was the news that Iran shot down a US drone. The United States claims that the drone was shot down over an international territory, while Iran says that it has crossed the Iranian border. Whatever the case, tensions between the two countries will continue to rise, and that can potentially threaten supply from Middle East. And that is bullish for crude.
Another bullish factor for crude were prospects for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, though dovishness of the European Central Bank was helping the commodity as well. Market analysts argued that introduction of more stimulating monetary policy will spur economic growth, and that is positive for oil demand. Additionally, the dovish Fed

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Metals Soar on Dovish Fed, Gold Touches 5-Year High

29 days ago

Precious metals jumped today, with gold for immediate delivery rising to the highest level in more than 5 years. Even copper, which failed to log gains yesterday, managed to join the rally today. The reason for the rally was the same as for yesterday’s gains — the unexpectedly strong dovish stance of the Federal Reserve.
While the Fed did not change its monetary policy yesterday, it signaled that interest rate cuts are possible later this year. Precious metals, and gold especially, tend to suffer from higher borrowing costs as they reduce attractiveness of non-yielding assets. Consequently, lower rates make bullion more appealing to investors. Additionally, more accommodative monetary policy weakens the US dollar, bolstering commodities priced in the greenback.
August futures for delivery

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Oil Rebounds After US Inventories Fall More than Expected

29 days ago

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied today, erasing its previous losses. Curiously, Brent crude failed to join the rally initially, though by now Brent has managed to log gains.
One of the obvious reasons for the rally was the bigger-than-expected drop of US crude oil inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported that the stockpiles shrank by 3.1 million barrels last week, while analysts had predicted a drop by just 1.5 million barrels.
Another possible supporting factor for crude was clarification of date for the next meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, at which extension of oil production cuts will be discussed. The OPEC members will meet at July 1, while the OPEC and non-OPEC members of the production cut deal will meet on July 2. The delay

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