Thursday , November 15 2018
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Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir is an online journalist with background in computer science and work experience in pension funds. He contributes news reports, fundamental analysis and sentiment forecasts to and His main specialization is the currencies of emerging economies and inter-market correlations with commodity and bond trading.

Articles by Vladimir Vyun

WTI Crude Oil Heads to Longest Stretch of Losses in More than 30 Years

6 days ago

Futures for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil fell today. North American crude was heading to the 10th consecutive daily loss — the longest stretch of losses since July 1984.
One of the possible reason for the decline was the decision of a US judge to halt construction of the Keystone XL pipeline due to potential environmental damage. The pipeline was designed to bring crude oil from Canada to the United States.
Another negative factor for crude was the report from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of US oil rigs increased by 12 to 886 this week. It was the fourth increase in five weeks, and the oil rig count was the highest since March 2015.
December futures for delivery of WTI crude oil dropped 0.66% to $60.24 per barrel as of 20:07 GMT on NYMEX today. Contract

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Gold Declines for Third Day, Still Heads to Monthly Gain

15 days ago

Futures for gold fell for the third consecutive session today, meaning that the precious metal was falling every single day of this week. Nevertheless, the commodity was heading for the first monthly gain after seven straight months of decline.
Gold declined after the US employment report showed an increase that exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Additionally, big gains of stocks around the world reduced demand for the metal as a safe haven. Over the whole month, the stock market was extremely volatile, and that drove investors to the safety of gold, explaining the monthly gains of the commodity.
Futures for delivery of bullion in December declined 0.78% to $1,215.7 per troy ounce as of 18:54 on COMEX today. The most-actively traded contract for gold lost as much as 1.26% of its value to trade

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Crude Oil Rebounds After Declining on Saudi Arabia Supply

24 days ago

Prices for crude oil dipped during the Monday’s trading session but rebounded later. The decline was a reaction to the statement from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih that his country will not implement embargo on Western countries similar to the one that happened in 1973. In fact, Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its oil output.
The rebound of oil prices was probably a result of the statement from Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh that exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia will not be able to replace Iranian supply lost due to the US sanctions. The minister said:
As I have repeatedly said there is no replacement for Iranian oil in the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s output is near their highest level ever and they have no spare capacity to pump more to replace Iran’s

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Symmetrical Triangle Pattern on H4 Chart of Gold

25 days ago

Yet another pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart of gold. Unlike the previous week’s bullish pennant, this week’s symmetrical triangle pattern is not inherently bullish. Yet analysts usually consider it to be a continuation pattern, meaning that prices will likely move in the previous direction after a period of consolidation. Considering that the previous move was up, a breakout to the upside seems more likely than to the downside. Furthermore, the technical indicators also support the bullish case for gold.
The converging yellow lines show the symmetrical triangle itself, which has formed after prices had started moving sideways. The cyan line suggests an entry point for long positions. It is situated 10% of the triangle’s widest part above the top border of the pattern. Above it

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Gold Gains, Other Metals Fare Far Worse After Fed Minutes

28 days ago

The market of metals demonstrated mixed performance today as gold gained, while palladium was flat, silver and platinum fell, and copper showed especially big losses. Bullion managed to carve out gains even as the US dollar rose against most of its major peers following the hawkish policy minutes of the Federal Reserve released on Wednesday. Some analysts explained the good performance of gold by the big losses of US stocks, which increased the attractiveness of the precious metal as a safe haven.
The minutes of the Fed meeting in September, which resulted in an interest rate hike, were hawkish, suggesting more hikes down the road. Specialists were divided over how that will affect gold. While many argued that high interest rates are a traditional enemy of the metal, others insisted that

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Crude Oil Prices Stable as Markets Wait for New Developments in US-Saudi Conflict

October 16, 2018

Crude oil were stable today as markets waited for a resolution of the conflict between the United States and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. While initially the two countries exchanged threats, specialists speculated that the USA may prefer to avoid conflict with its strategic ally. Indeed, US President Donald Trump softened his stance, suggesting that “rogue killers” may be behind the disappearance.
Prices remained support by the outlook for lower supply from Iran, though there are concerns that US supply may take its place. To assess whether it is the case, traders will watch for a supply report from the Energy Information Administration due for release on Wednesday. Experts predicted ahead of the release that it will show an increase of US crude

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Crude Oil Gains amid Tensions Between USA & Saudi Arabia

October 15, 2018

Prices for crude oil rose today amid growing tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The USA threatened actions against the Middle Eastern nation if it turns out to be responsible for the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If that happens, Saudi will not be able to replace supply from Iran lost due to US sanctions, creating a very undersupplied market.
Gains of crude were limited by signs of increasing supply in the United States. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of US oil rigs increased by 8 to 861 last week. It was the first weekly increase after three weeks of a decline. Furthermore, it was the biggest increase since the week that ended on August 10.
Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil in November advanced 0.49% to $71.69 per barrel as of 18:35

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Pennant on Chart of Gold Gives Hopes to Bulls

October 14, 2018

A pennant has formed on the four-hour chart of gold. A pennant is formed as prices consolidate after a period of moving in one direction. It is a continuation pattern, suggesting that prices will move in the previous direction after taking a breather. Considering that on the present chart prices were moving upward, it is a bullish pennant. That means a move further up is likely.
On the present chart, yellow lines show the pennant itself. The cyan line is located 10% of the flagpole’s height above the pennant and suggests an entry point for bulls if prices will indeed break to the upside. The green line is at the flagpole’s length above the pattern and offers the target for taking profit.
It is important to be cautious in trading, remembering that patterns do not predict performance with

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Crude Oil Loses Gains on Friday, Heads to Weekly Loss

October 12, 2018

Crude oil fell today and was heading to weekly losses. Earlier, futures for the commodity rallied. Market analysts speculated that the rally was the result of the rise of global stocks, which improved the market sentiment.
But prices fell as traders were concerned that the increase of production from Saudi Arabia and Russia will be more than enough to make up for the loss of Iran’s supply due to the US sanctions, while global demand was stagnating.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in its Monthly Oil Market Report revised the outlook for world oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.54 million barrels per day, down by 80,000 bpd from the previous month’s estimate. The forecast for 2019 got a negative revision by 50,000 bpd to 1.36 million bpd. The report said that Russia’s

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Gold & Other Precious Metals Decline as Dollar Gains, Copper Avoids Losses

October 12, 2018

Gold and other precious metals declined today as the US dollar gained against the basket of six major currencies. The Dollar Index rose 0.25% during the trading session. Stronger greenback often leads to losses for commodities priced in the US currency. Contract for delivery of gold in December declined 0.54% to $1,221 per troy ounce as of 15:12 GMT on COMEX today. Silver went down 0.14% to $14.59 per ounce. Spot price for platinum dropped 0.48% to $836.91 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.25% to $1,077.15 per ounce.
Meanwhile, copper managed to avoid losses. Market analysts explained it by increasing infrastructure spending in China. The world’s biggest consumer of the industrial metal has ambitious construction plans, and that promises increasing demand for copper. Indeed, China increased

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Crude Oil Sinks Despite Shutdown of Production in Gulf of Mexico

October 10, 2018

Crude oil sank more than 2% today despite the increasing threat from Hurricane Michael, which intensified to Category 4 storm. At the same time, natural gas continued to rise to new highs. About 40% of daily oil production and more than one-third of natural gas production was shut down in the US Gulf of Mexico.
Some market analysts explained the drop of oil prices by a delayed reaction to yesterday’s downgrade of the global growth outlook by the International Monetary Fund. Performance of crude is linked to economic growth as better performing economy means higher fuel and energy consumption.
Markets did not receive an official report about US crude oil inventories today. While usually the data comes out on Wednesday, this week many US reports were delayed by one day due to the Columbus

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Crude Oil Jumps More than 1% on Supply Concerns

October 9, 2018

While yesterday positive fundamentals were unable to bolster oil prices, that changed today. Crude jumped more than 1% as US companies shut down almost 20% of Gulf of Mexico oil production due to the threat of Hurricane Michael. Falling supply from Iran due to US sanctions also helped the prices to rise. Crude oil is a risk-sensitive commodity, tending to fall during times of risk aversion, but today the positive fundamentals managed to overcome the generally negative sentiment among traders.
Despite all the positive factors, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned that “the oil markets are entering the red zone.” He argued that expensive energy “is back at a bad time, when the global economy is losing momentum.” Indeed, performance of crude is linked

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Oil Retreats Despite Supportive Fundamentals

October 8, 2018

Crude oil fell today, reversing its rally. Oil prices were rising earlier on reports that exports from Iran was falling due to US sanctions. Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said that the claims by Saudi Arabia that it will be able to replace Iranian supply were exaggerated. Additionally oil producers shut down 19% of oil production and 11% of natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the threat from Hurricane Michael. And on top of that, market participants were hoping that stimulating measures from China will increase oil consumption in the world’s second biggest economy.
Yet despite all the supportive fundamentals, crude oil was unable to hold onto gains. Market analysts explained that by the news that the US government considers waivers on sanctions for those

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Crude Oil Retreats on Friday After Earlier Rally, Still Ends Week with Gains

October 5, 2018

Crude oil started Friday strong but ended the session with losses. Nevertheless, the commodity logged gains for the week. While Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled that they are ready to replace supply from Iran lost due to the US sanctions, traders were worried that it will not be enough to make up for the loss. Earlier this week, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that he does not rule out oil prices hitting the $100 mark.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of US oil rigs decreased by 2 to 861 this week. It was the third consecutive weekly decline. That suggests oil drillers were not ramping up production despite rising oil prices. Previously, traders were concerned that rising prices will encourage US producers to ramp up oil supply, mitigating the effect of the OPEC output

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Gold Steady, Other Metals Fall, Dragged Down by US Dollar

October 4, 2018

Gold was steady today, while other metals fell. Market analysts speculated that the weak performance of the metal market was the result of the relatively strong dollar. The currency was getting support from positive macroeconomic data and rising yields for 10-year government bonds. With that said, the Dollar Index rose just a bit by 0.04% to 95.8040.
Experts say that the main headwind for gold going forward will be rising interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday that the Fed may increase rates beyond the neutral levels. Higher borrowing costs reduce attractiveness of non-yield bearing assets, like commodities.
December contract edged down a bit by 0.07% to $1,202.1 per troy ounce as of 17:10 GMT on COMEX today after attempting to rise earlier. Futures

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Brent Oil Climbs Above $84, WTI Crude Joins Rally

October 1, 2018

Today, prices for Brent crude oil climbed to levels last seen in 2014, and West Texas Intermediate crude also joined the rally, reaching the highest level in almost four years. Traders were concerned that the US sanctions against Iran will decrease supply on the oil market, and that led to the rally of prices.
According to Reuters estimates, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased its oil production by 90,000 barrels per day to 32.85 million bpd in September. But those OPEC members bound by the supply-cut agreement actually reduced their output by 70,000 bpd due to lower production in Iran and Venezuela.
Market analysts argued that the news that Canada was invited to the trade agreement with the United States and Mexico after all boosted prices as well. The news reduced

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Gold Falls Below $1,200 After Fed Hikes Interest Rates

September 26, 2018

Gold fell today, breaking the psychologically important $1,200 level, and other metals followed after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. The Fed increased its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2%-2.25% as was widely expected. Furthermore, the central bank’s projections showed that policy makers plan one more hike this year.
The news boosted the US dollar, and that usually hurts metals priced in the US currency. Additionally, higher borrowing costs increase cost of holding non-yield bearing assets.
Futures for delivery of gold in December dropped 0.55% to $1,198.5 per troy ounce as of 21:17 GMT on COMEX today. Silver tumbled as much as 0.95% to $14.36 per ounce. Copper fell 0.19% to $2.818 per pound. Spot prices for platinum and palladium were little changed at $822.87 per

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Different Fundamentals Lead to Disparity in Performance of WTI & Brent Grades

September 21, 2018

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied today, while the Brent grade stayed little changed. The disparity in performance between the two grades of oil can be explained by fundamentals that were different for WTI and Brent.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of US oil rigs fell by one to 866 last week. While US drillers were increasing the number of rigs previously in anticipation of higher prices, currently the growth stalled. The Permian region in western Texas and eastern New Mexico was especially notable for the lack of growth due to insufficient pipeline infrastructure for transporting oil. The Energy Information Administration predicted that the US biggest oilfield will rise by 31,000 — the slowest rate of increase since 2016.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

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Gold Retreats Despite Weaker US Dollar

September 13, 2018

Gold fell today after attempting to rally earlier on the back of the US dollar’s weakness. The greenback declined after US inflation missed expectations. While usually weaker dollar means higher prices for gold and other precious metals priced in the US currency, today it was not the case.
Analysts speculated that the reason for bullion’s underperformance was uncertainty about whether the United States and China are going to resume trade negotiations. The potential trade wars have mixed impact on gold. On one hand, resulting risk aversion increases demand for safer assets, like bullion. On the other, China is the world’s biggest consumer of the metal, and the possible negative impact from the trade conflict in the Chinese economy may seriously hurt demand for gold.
Contract for delivery

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Oil Rallies As Hurricane Forecasts Result in Shutdown of Two Rigs

September 4, 2018

Prices for crude rallied today after two rigs were closed following the forecasts of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Weather forecasters predicted that the hurricane will hit the Gulf coast tonight. As a result, Anadarko Petroleum Corp evacuated workers from Horn Mountain and Marlin facilities.
The halt of production will reduce supply on the market, which was already tight due to the US sanctions against Iran and other factors. As Michael Dei-Michei, head of research at Vienna consultancy JBC Energy, explained to Reuters:
With ship-tracking data now pointing at a reduction in Iranian exports, renewed strife in Libya, and Venezuelan export availability hobbled by an accident at the key Jose terminal, the list of bullish headlines is getting longer.
Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil

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Gold & Other Precious Metals Rally on Returning Trade War Fears, Copper Unhappy

August 31, 2018

Gold gained and other precious metals rallied as well today amid returning fears of trade wars. The United States were planning additional $200 billion tariffs on China’s goods, a move that will likely prompt the Asian nation to retaliate in a similar fashion. There were also talks that the USA will likely reject the offer from the European Union to drop tariffs on automobiles in return for the same move from the USA.
Unsurprisingly, copper was not thrilled by the news. China is the biggest consumer of the industrial metal. And the potential negative impact on the nation’s economy from the trade dispute with its biggest trading partner will certainly affect demand for the metal very negatively.
Gold for delivery in December advanced 0.28% to $1,208.4 per troy ounce as of 13:11 GMT on COMEX

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Crude Oil Rallies on Weak Dollar, OPEC Production Cuts

August 27, 2018

Crude oil rallied today, joining precious metals, as the weakness of the dollar boosted commodities priced in the US currency. The greenback got hit by last week’s comments from US President Donald Trump, who was criticizing the idea of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Later, the currency also suffered after the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which was considered by markets to be dovish.
Crude also gained on reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies participating in the production cut deal reduced their output more than was agreed upon. Reuters reported, citing anonymous sources, that the oil producers cut output by 9% more than the agreement demanded.
October futures for delivery of WTI crude oil gained 0.2% to $68.86 per barrel

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Crude Oil Gains on Friday, Still Logs Weekly Losses

August 17, 2018

Crude oil rose on Friday but still posted losses for the third week in a row. One of the biggest problems for the commodity lately were fears of trade wars between the United States and their trading partners, China in particular. Disruption of trade between the world’s two biggest economies can seriously damage global economic growth, hurting demand for oil as a result. Therefore, traders welcomed the news that the USA and China are going to resume trade negotiations, though it will be low level exploratory talks for now. Additional bullish factor for crude were US sanctions against Iran.
According to the report from Baker Hughes, US drillers did not add new oil rigs this week. This is to be expected as US oil companies were opening new rigs when prices were rising, and there is little

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Metals Rally as Dollar Weakens, Gold Doesn’t Join

August 16, 2018

Futures for metals priced in the US dollar gained today as the greenback weakened. Yet gold did not join the rally, still hanging near the lowest level since January 2017.
The US currency declined during the Thursday session due to the improving market sentiment. Traders felt less need to buy safer assets after the news about Qatar investing in Turkey and renewal of trade talks between the United States and China.
Over the recent months, it looked like gold has lost its appeal as a safe haven, and investors preferred to use the dollar and US Treasuries as a hedge against risks. Yet it seems that bullion is unable to find demand even as risk aversion subsides.
Futures for delivery of gold in December fell 0.12% to $1,183.6 per troy ounce as of 17:36 GMT on COMEX today. At the same time,

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Clashing Fundamentals Keep Crude Oil from Rebounding

August 14, 2018

Futures for crude oil traded almost flat today amid clashing fundamentals, though just recently they have went down. On the positive side, the market sentiment improved after fears about the Turkish financial crisis eased, allowing the stock market to recover. Crude followed stocks, halting its fear-induced decline. Additional positive factor for the commodity were the reports about the oil production cut by Saudi Arabia.
Yet the Turkish crisis was not over. As a result, the US dollar touched the highest level in more than a year against the basket of major currencies. That put pressure on commodities priced in the US currency, including crude oil.
Futures for delivery of WTI oil declined 0.22% to $67.05 per barrel as of 18:41 GMT on NYMEX today. October contract for Brent grade of crude

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Crude Oil Declines amid Turkish Crisis Concerns, Other Negative Fundamentals

August 13, 2018

Futures for crude oil attempted to hold ground today but failed and are now trading far below the opening levels. The reason for that was concerns about potential spillover of the Turkish financial crisis to other economies and resulting risk aversion. Oil is a risk-sensitive commodity, tending to lose value in times of fear and uncertainty.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries released its Monthly Oil Market Report today, predicting an increase of global oil demand to 1.64 million barrels per day — 20,000 barrels per day less than in the previous month’s forecast.
On Friday, Baker Hughes reported that the number of US oil rigs increased by 10 last week.
Contract for delivery of WTI crude oil in September dropped as much as 2.1% to $66.21 per barrel as of 18:53 GMT on NYMEX

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Crude Oil Rallies on US Sanctions Against Iran, Still Heads to Weekly Losses

August 10, 2018

Futures for crude oil logged big gains today amid concerns that US sanctions against Iran can hurt global supply of crude. In fact, the International Energy Agency voiced worries that it may be hard to maintain adequate world’s supply with the sanctions, saying:
As oil sanctions against Iran take effect, perhaps in combination with production problems elsewhere, maintaining global supply might be very challenging and would come at the expense of maintaining an adequate spare capacity cushion
For the week, though, crude was still heading for losses. Market participants were worried that trade wars and geopolitical tensions may hurt global growth. And that bodes ill for oil consumption.
Later today, Baker Hughes will release its US oil rig count. Last week, the agency reported about

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Crude Oil & Gold Decline During Thursday’s Trading

August 9, 2018

Crude oil fell today as concerns about the US-China trade war intensified. China announced additional 25% on $16 billion of US goods in response to the announcement from Washington about tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods. Traders tend to hurt economic growth, and as a result are harmful to growth-dependent commodities, like crude. Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil in September dropped 0.13% to $66.85 per barrel on NYMEX. October contract for Brent grade of oil declined 0.26% to $72.09 per barrel on ICE.
Prices for gold declined as well due to the broad-based strength of the US dollar. Bullion failed to profit from fundamentals that looked supportive to the commodity like the trade wars and stagnating producer inflation in the United States. Contract for delivery of gold

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Gold, Silver, Crude Oil Rise As US Dollar Weakens

August 8, 2018

Commodities priced in the US dollar traded generally higher today thanks to the weakness of the greenback. Among them were gold, silver, and crude oil. Dollar-denominated assets become more attractive when the US currency weakens as that allows to buy them cheaper.
Crude oil also gained as markets were waiting for official supply data, anticipating it to show a drawdown from US crude oil inventories. Analysts predicted that today’s report from the Energy Information Administration will show a decrease of US oil reserves by 2.8 million barrels. Data released earlier by the American Petroleum Institute revealed that stockpiles shrank by as much as 6.02 million. If the official report matches that number, crude should rally even higher. The outlook for smaller US reserves allowed oil

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Crude Oil Logs Gains on Report of Falling US Inventories

August 2, 2018

Crude oil logged impressive gains today, despite the rising US dollar that was weighing on commodities priced in the US currency. Crude rallied on signs that US crude oil inventories may start to decline after the previous build. Industry data provider Genscape reported that stockpiles at the delivery hub for US oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 1.1 million barrels last week. The report followed yesterday’s official data that showed an unexpected increase of US reserves by 3.8 million barrels.
Previously, prices for oil were falling on news that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and several other countries increased output to compensate for lower supply from Iran in case the United States introduce sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation. ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson said

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