Monday , September 16 2019
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Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir Vyun

Vladimir is an online journalist with background in computer science and work experience in pension funds. He contributes news reports, fundamental analysis and sentiment forecasts to TopForexNews.com and CommodityBlog.com. His main specialization is the currencies of emerging economies and inter-market correlations with commodity and bond trading.

Articles by Vladimir Vyun

Metals Rally Ahead of ECB

4 days ago

Gold rose today, and other precious metals joined the rally. Market experts speculated that the rally was just a result of short-covering ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting later today. Market participants expect the ECB to make its policy more accommodative, a move that will likely boost the US dollar. And that is not a good outlook for metals priced in the greenback. At the same time, economists expect today’s data to show a slowdown of US consumer inflation from 0.3% in July to 0.1% in August, which may limit an advance of the dollar.
Gains of bullion were limited by the positive market sentiment caused by signs of improving relations between the United States and China. The same optimistic sentiment boosted copper.
Futures for delivery of gold in December

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Crude Oil Rises as US-China Relations Show Signs of Improvement, Erases Gains Later

4 days ago

Futures for crude oil rallied today as the market sentiment was positive. By now, though, the commodity retreated, erasing its earlier gains.
Traders felt more confident and willing to risk after reports that China decided to exempt 16 US goods from tariffs, while the United States will postpone implementation of new tariffs on Chinese goods till October 15. Markets considered the gestures as a sign that both countries want to maintain good relations and avoid a trade war.
Adding to the bullish momentum of crude was yesterday’s report from the Energy Information Administration. It showed that US crude oil inventories shrank by 6.9 million barrels last week — much more than was expected.
The main risk for oil prices is today’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. Experts

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Oil Drops on Tuesday, Bounces After Wednesday’s Session Opens

6 days ago

Futures for crude oil declined during Tuesday’s session, though they bounced a bit after the next session started. Analysts speculated that the decline was a reaction to the news about the resignation of John Bolton from the post of a national security advisor. Bolton is known for his hawkish stance against Iran. It is possible that without him the United States will soften the stance on the Middle Eastern country, which may result in a return of Iranian oil to the market.
Crude oil also declined after the US Energy Information Administration downgraded its price forecast. Now, the agency predicts that the average price for WTI crude oil in 2019 will be at $56.31 per barrel, down from $57.87 in the August report. Brent crude is expected to average at $63.39 per barrel, down from $65.15

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Video: Gold as of September 10, 2019

6 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of September 10, 2019, also mentioning silver. He provides his opinion about where prices may go in the near future, warning about being too bearish on the metal. Phil also reminds that monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will likely have a huge impact on the metal market.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Rallies After Saudi Arabia Replaces Energy Minister

7 days ago

Crude oil rallied today after Saudi Arabia replaced Khalid al-Falih with prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on a post of energy minister. The new minister signaled that he is going to continue to pursue the policy of output cuts to support oil prices. Markets welcomed the appointment as Abdulaziz bin Salman is considered to be good at negotiating production cuts and knowledgeable about markets.
Going forward, traders will watch for reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration about US oil inventories. The monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday is likely to have a strong impact on markets. Most market participants expect a stimulus from the ECB. If that is indeed the case, the US dollar is likely to rally, and that should have

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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Crude Oil for 9–13 September 2019

7 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold, silver, and crude oil for the week of September 9–13, 2019. As usually, he starts the video by discussing moves of the commodities last week and what factors affected them. The video continues then with commodity charts and speculation about possible price moves. Phil warns about being overly bearish on gold, warning against falling into “bear trap”, though admits that it is not impossible for gold prices to go lower. He also mentions important events to watch for, specifically the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting on Thursday and the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some

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Crude Oil Ends Friday Higher on Range of Positive Fundamentals

10 days ago

Crude oil ended Friday’s trading with gains. Market analysts had various theories explaining the commodity’s good performance. Some said that crude profited from risk appetite caused by China’s efforts to stimulate its economy. Other thought that Federal Reserve’s pledge to act “as appropriate” to bolster the US economy. The decline of the US dollar due to the slower-than-expected growth of US employment helped the dollar-denominated commodity as well.
Baker Hughes reported that US drillers reduced the number of oil rigs by 4 to 738 this week. The number of gas rigs slipped by 2 to 160.
The Energy Information Administration reported yesterday that US crude oil inventories shrank by 4.8 million barrels to 423.0 million barrels last week. The actual drop was twice the forecast amount of 2.4

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Gold & Other Precious Metals Sink on US-China Trade Talks, Copper Rallies

11 days ago

Gold tanked today. Other precious metals joined the decline, showing significant losses as well. Palladium was an exception, managing to carve out reasonable gains. The major piece of news today was the report that the United States and China are going to resume their trade negotiations. While no specific date was set, sources talked about “early October”. That was enough to make traders seek higher-yielding risky assets, eschewing safer ones like bullion.
The same optimism can explain the rally of copper. China is the biggest consumer of the industrial metal, meaning that good news for the Asian country means prospects for higher demand for copper.
Positive US macroeconomic reports also weighed on gold. Automatic Data Processing reported that US employment rose by almost 200,000 last

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Video: Crude Oil as of September 4, 2019

11 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about crude oil as of September 4, 2019. He starts the video by explaining the reasons for the recent decline of crude. Phil continues then with talking about factors that will be affecting oil in the nearest future and speculating where the commodity may go next.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Video: Gold as of September 4, 2019

11 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of September 4, 2019. He starts the video by listing factors that were affecting the metal last week and mentioning the fact that hedge funds and money managers increased their net long positions yet again. Phil then talks about factors that will be affecting the metals in the near future, like nonfarm payrolls released by the end of the week and the Federal Reserve policy meeting later this month. He concludes the video by answering questions of the viewers about silver and the gold-silver ratio.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Metals Rally as Traders Wait for Fed Rate Cut in September

12 days ago

Gold and, to a lesser extent, other precious metals are considered to be safe assets, meaning that traders buy them in times of fear and uncertainty. And with the market sentiment being positive today, one could expect industrial metals, like copper, to rally and precious metals to fall. But while copper did indeed rally, gold managed to hold ground, while other precious metals even logged substantial gains.
Market analysts speculated that the reason for such surprisingly good performance of metals was the weak US dollar, hurt by the outlook for Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The general consensus is that the Fed will cut interest rates later this month. CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability of a cut, with about a 7% likelihood of a cut by 50 basis points. New York Federal Reserve

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Crude Oil Jumps as Market Sentiment Improves on China’s Data

12 days ago

Futures for crude oil demonstrated big gains today. Market analysts pointed at the improving market sentiment as the likely reason for the rally. Traders were more optimistic today after a report showed that China’s services sector accelerated last month. China is the second-largest consumer and the biggest importer of crude oil, meaning that signs of robust growth of the Chinese economy are very positive to the commodity. Economists are doubt, though, that China’s services sector will be able to maintain its robust growth if the US-China trade war continues.
The drop of the US dollar caused by the outlook for monetary easing from the Federal Reserve also contributed to the gains of crude oil.
Futures for delivery of WTI grade of oil in October jumped as much as 4.15% to $56.18 per barrel

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Recession Fears Drive Precious Metals Up

13 days ago

Gold rallied today, and other precious metals joined the rally, with silver being the biggest victor. Market analysts speculated that the reason for the rally was fear of a global economic recession, which prompted investors to seek a safe haven. The dreaded yield curve inversion remained in place after the prolonged weekend in the United States ended. Experts point out that inversions of the yield spread between two- and 10-year Treasury bonds preceded every single recession since 1950. Weak manufacturing data in the United States, eurozone, and other parts of the world added to concerns. And the continuing trade conflict between the USA and China remains a major reason for traders to shun risk and seek safety.
Futures for delivery of gold in December surged 1.68% to $1,555.10 per troy

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Natural Gas Climbs as Hurricane Dorian Expected to Send Heatwave

13 days ago

Futures for natural gas climbed about 3% today. Some market analysts argued that Hurricane Dorian could not be the cause for the jump as it missed US gas rigs, causing no damage. Yet others speculated that the hurricane was indeed a bullish factor for the commodity as it is expected to bring a heatwave on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. That should increase consumption of gas used in air conditioning.
Now, traders wait for a supply report from the US Energy Information Administration. Last week, US stockpiles of natural gas increased by 60 billion cubic feet, exceeding the forecast increase of 55 billion cubic feet. The report will be released on Thursday, as usual. Crude oil inventories data will be released on the same day instead of usual Wednesday, delayed due to the Labor Day

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Crude Oil Sinks on Concerns About Global Economic Growth

13 days ago

Futures for crude oil tanked today, with the North American grade falling about 3%. Market analysts speculated that the main reason for the drop was fear of a global economic recession, especially as the US-China trade conflict continued to drag on with no end in sight. It is not yet clear when officials from the world’s two biggest economies will meet for the next round of negotiations and if such meeting will occur in the foreseeable future at all. Manufacturing looks weak in the majority of developed countries, adding to concerns about an economic slowdown. And slower economic growth means limited demand for oil. Reports about rising output in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia added to the bearish momentum of crude.
Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil

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Gold & Silver Rally, Copper & Crude Oil Drop as US & Chines Tariffs Kick In

14 days ago

Gold and silver rallied while copper and crude oil fell amid risk aversion on markets. While markets opened on Monday on a rather positive note, the traders’ mood soured later during the session. The positive Caixin China manufacturing report was responsible for the initial optimism of traders before the sentiment worsened. Analysts argued that the reason for the worsening sentiment was the further escalation of the US-China trade war. US tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s tariffs on US goods kicked in today. And while traders were optimistic last week due to signs of the willingness of both the United States and China to negotiate, with no end of the conflict in sight investors are becoming more and more concerned about the long-term impact of the trade spat on the world economy.

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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Crude Oil for 2–6 September 2019

14 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold, silver, and crude oil for the week of September 2–6, 2019. He starts the video by talking about the performance of the commodities last week and factors that were affecting them. Phil also mentions that hedge funds and money managers increased their net long positions on gold and silver while decreasing them on crude oil. The video then proceeds to show charts of the commodities and discussing them. Phil warns against being overly bearish on gold if it continues to move down, pointing out that the previous pullbacks ended with breakouts to the upside and also that other precious metals surged on Friday, and bullion is likely to follow them.

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Crude Oil Sinks amid Detrimental Fundamentals

17 days ago

Futures for crude oil demonstrated significant losses today, breaking the streak of gains. The commodity still gained over the week, but today’s drop trimmed the gains.
There were plenty of reasons for crude to fall. According to a Reuters survey, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased its oil production in August for the first time this year. Russia reduced its oil output slightly less than was agreed upon in the OPEC+ deal. According to the latest projections, Hurricane Dorian is going to miss the Gulf of Mexico, hitting Florida instead, which means no supply disruptions in the United States.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of US oil rigs declined by 12 to 742 this week. The number of gas rigs remained unchanged at 162.
Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil

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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Crude Oil for 26–30 August 2019

21 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold, silver, and crude oil for the week of August 26–30, 2019. He starts the video by mentioning that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets on gold and silver last week. Phil then discusses charts of the commodities, talking about the past performance and speculating what the future performance may be.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Sinks as US-China Trade War Escalates

24 days ago

Futures for crude oil sank today. Natural gas joined the decline, though its losses were nowhere near as big as the ones demonstrated by crude. The main reason for oil’s slump was an escalation of the Sino-US trade war. China responded to US tariffs by its own levies on US imports, and US President Donald Trump threatened to retaliate. The spat between the two world’s biggest economies can have a tremendous adverse impact on the global economy, and crude oil is very sensitive to that kind of risks.
Some market analysts attributed the weakness of crude also to disappointment in the speech of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He did not confirm an interest rate cut in September, frustrating many traders who were waiting for such confirmation. Still, it looks like markets bet on a cut next

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Gold & Silver Remains Under Pressure from FOMC Minutes

25 days ago

Gold and silver extended yesterday’s decline today. Copper joined the decline but platinum and palladium managed to rally.
Markets continued to digest the monetary policy meeting minutes released by the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday. Traders were hoping to see signs that the FOMC plans aggressive monetary easing. Instead, the minutes showed that the interest rate cut in July was “mid-cycle adjustment”, not the start of a prolonged easing cycle. Furthermore, the notes added that monetary policy is not on “a preset course”, suggesting that a rate cut in September is not guaranteed.
Yet it looks like markets are still betting on monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch page shows more than 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. Furthermore, it shows

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Precious Metals Under Pressure After FOMC Minutes

26 days ago

Precious metals were under pressure today after the monetary policy minutes released by the Federal Open Market Committee today. The US dollar gained after the release. Consequently, dollar-priced commodities came under pressure. Prices for gold, silver, and palladium declined but platinum managed to avoid losses.
The FOMC released minutes of its July policy meeting at which the range for the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points. They revealed that, while there were policymakers who would want to cut the rate even more, there were also others who thought that an interest rate cut is not warranted. Furthermore, the minutes did not show a plan for aggressive monetary easing in the future. The notes stated:
In their discussion of the outlook for monetary policy beyond this

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Crude Oil Mixed After EIA Report, FOMC Minutes

26 days ago

Crude oil traded mixed today despite the bigger-than-expected drawdown from US inventories. Brent crude gained while prices for the WTI grade fell.
The Energy Information Administration reported that US stockpiles of crude fell by 2.7 million barrels to 437.8 million barrels last week. The drop was about two times bigger than the consensus forecast.
Yet the North American grade of oil did not respond to the report in a positive manner. Market analysts had several theories for why that happened. Some pointed at the fact that gasoline and distillate fuel inventories increased. Others thought that markets were disappointed by the lack of hints at aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in today’s minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.
Going forward, traders will focus

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Video: Crude Oil as of August 20, 2019

26 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about crude oil as of August 20, 2019. He starts the video by mentioning that hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net long positions on crude last week. Phil proceeds then with explaining what factors were influencing oil last week and what factors will be driving the commodity this week. He also discusses possible price moves.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Video: Factors Affecting Precious Metals, Important Price Levels

26 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club answers questions of the viewers. He talks about gold and silver both in the short and the longer term. Phil explains what factors were affecting the metals recently and what events will be affecting them in the near future. He also discusses possible price levels the commodities may be hitting in the future. The video mentions that seasonally August tend to be a strong month for gold.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Video: Gold & Silver as of August 21, 2019

26 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club talks about gold as of August 21, 2019. He discusses factors that will be affecting the metal this week and a range in which prices are expected to move. Phil also talks about silver and its performance compared with gold.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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Crude Oil Rises in Tandem with Gold & Silver

27 days ago

Crude oil rose today (though the WTI grade has lost its gains currently) as positive news about the US-China trade conflict improved the traders’ sentiment. Now, market participants wait for supply reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Analysts predicted that the government data will show a decrease of US oil inventories by 1.4 million barrels last week following the increase by 1.6 million barrels the week before. Contract for delivery of WTI crude oil in September was little changed at $56.18 per barrel as of 18:42 GMT on NYMEX today. Futures for delivery of Brent crude in October edged up 0.38% to $59.97 per barrel on ICE.
Usually gold performs inversely to crude as the precious metal is often used as a safe haven, while oil is

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Precious Metals Under Pressure from Positive Market Sentiment

28 days ago

Gold fell about 1% today. Silver and platinum fell as well but palladium managed to gain. Copper rose too.
Today’s market sentiment was favorable to riskier assets, not safer ones. The delay of US tariffs on Chinese imports and sanctions against Huawei made investors bolder and more willing to risk, buying assets with high risk and high return instead of safe ones. Precious metals, especially gold, are often used as a safe haven by traders, therefore they found limited demand today. Conversely, copper, being industrial metal, profited from the risk-on mentality of traders.
Many market analysts think that gold will resume its rally in the longer run. While tensions between the United States and China subsided by now, they by no means have gone away. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

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Crude Rallies After Attack on Saudi Oilfield, Gains Capped by Negative Factors

28 days ago

Futures for crude oil gained today, rallying more than 1% intraday. The gains eased, though, as traders were concerned about negative factors affecting crude.
Risk appetite prevailed on markets due to positive developments in the Sino-US trade war. The United States decided to postpone new tariffs on Chines goods as well as to delay sanctions on Chinese tech giant Huawei by 90 days. Meanwhile, China announced an interest rate reform, which was welcomed by markets.
A positive factor specific for crude was the attack of Saudi Arabia’s oilfield by Yemeni separatists. The initial positive impact of the news dwindled, though, after reports that the attack did not cause supply disruptions.
Turning to negative factors, a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was bearish

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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Crude Oil for 19–23 August 2019

28 days ago

In the present video, Phil Carr from The Gold and Silver Club discusses gold, silver, and crude oil (both WTI and Brent) for the week of August 19–23, 2019. He starts with an explanation of what factors were affecting commodities last week and how markets reacted to them. Phil then talks about factors that will be affecting commodity markets this week. He proceeds next with charts of the commodities, showing the past performance and speculating what the future performance may be.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.

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