The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last. This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018. It is …

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation. This represents a kind of endgame for the Fed. Since the early ‘80s, the Fed has been actively understating inflation via a variety …

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate …

As we keep emphasizing, the world is in an Everything Bubble. In truth, it is a bubble in sovereign bonds, created by Central Banks attempting to corner these markets via ZIRP and QE. However, because sovereign bonds are the bedrock for the current fiat financial system, if they go into a bubble, EVERYTHING goes into …

What do formerly successful hedge funds going out of business, wacky economic data points, and the election of populists like Donald Trump all have in common? All of them are the product of The Everything Bubble. In the aftermath of the 2008 Crisis, Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via low interest …

The Fed claims it’s “confused” as to why inflation remains so low. The Fed isn’t confused at all. It intentionally measures inflation in ridiculous ways to guarantee that the “official number” remains nowhere near reality. On top of this, we have factual evidence that Fed is in fact well aware that inflation is clocking in …

Let’s talk about inflation. There are two types of inflation in the world… the “inflation” that you and I experience in the form of a rising cost of living induced by Central Banks devaluing our currencies… …and the inflation that Central Banks are “targeting” in the bizarre claim that somehow hitting said targets will unleash …

The world is careening towards an inflationary shock. As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what's happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what's about to take place. Below is a chart you have to see. This chart shows the Producer Prices Index for the four …

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds. Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back). Why would anyone want to lend these companies money? Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of …

Something truly massive happened in early 2017. That “something” was the market shifted from deflation towards an inflationary outlook. If you don’t believe me, you can see for yourself. Inflation expectations broke out of a multi-year downtrend. Not only that, but  they have since continued higher, bouncing of support. Investing in the markets is like …

I am beyond thrilled to announce that my book The Everything Bubble is now available to purchase at Amazon. You can purchase it by CLICKING HERE. This book is a distillation of over a decade of work. It is divided into two sections (How We Got Here and What's to Come). How We Got Here …

The world’s Central Banks have finally succeeded in unleashing an inflationary storm. The first pickup has only just begun to be felt. But this time next year, when inflation is well north of 4% globally and the big price moves have already occurred, everyone will be screaming “INFLATION!” How did this happen? Globally, Central Banks …

Central Banks have FINALLY created inflation. Starting in late 2016, Central Banks began actively rigging the stock market via a number of gimmicks. They are: 1)   Slamming the VIX lower to force risk-parity funds to buy stocks. 2)   Selling the Japanese Yen and buying $USD to force stocks higher via the Yen carry trade. 3)   …

Let the farce begin. The Fed meets today to discuss whether or not to begin shrinking its balance sheet.  The financial media informs us that this is the single most important Fed meeting in years and that its coming announcement is a game-changer. Give me a break. The Fed will NEVER let its balance sheet …

Back in January 2017, we predicted that this year would be a year of a $USD collapse. At that time it was obvious to us, plain as day, that the Trump administration would want a weak $USD in order to implement its economic policies. Since then, the $USD has collapsed against every major world currency: …

The $USD continues to drop like a brick, having taken out critical support in the near-term. This is just the beginning. It's only going to get worse from here. Here’s the $USD’s chart running back 40 years. I call this the “single most important chart in the world,” because how the $USD moves has a …

The market bubble has become so massive that even Wall Street is nervous. To be clear, investment banks do best when stocks are in a bull market. And they love bubbles because it means more M&A, IPOs, dead offerings, stock issuance and other deals from which they derive their revenues. So for Wall Street CEOs …

The next leg up for Gold is officially here. Gold has broken out of the mother of all triangle patterns established by the long-term bull market trendline established in 2006 and its seven-year descending line from the 2010 peak. Of course, things won’t be moving in a straight line from here. But the upside target …

Yesterday we talked about the US Dollar ($USD) dropping below critical support. By quick way of review, here’s the key chart. As you can see, the $USD staged a large bull market run in 2014 as the Fed wound down its QE program. The greenback was then range bound for three years until this month …

While everyone continues to focus on stocks, a much larger, far more important situation is brewing in the single most important asset class in the world. That situation involves the US Dollar ($USD). While CNBC and the financial media love to talk about stocks, the reality is that stocks are actually one of the smallest …

The Fed July FOMC minutes, that were released last week, were nothing short of extraordinary. However, to fully appreciate just what the Fed admitted, we first need a little background. From November 2016 until June 2017, the Fed was pushing a hawkish agenda. The running mantra at this time was that the Fed would raise …

The Fed confirmed yesterday that stocks are in a bubble. Lost amidst the usual Fed-speak about inflation and other items were the following nuggets. 1)   “Equities” (read: stocks) were the primary reason the Fed discussed financial stability risks. 2)   The Fed raised its assessment of financial stability from “notable” to “elevated.” 3)   The Fed discussed …

The market should bounce this morning, but after that we’re heading down. The technical damage from last week was severe with the bull market trendline that has supported stocks since early November being violated on the S&P 500. Moreover, stocks finished down during August options expiration week in six of the last seven years. So …

Whoever is rigging the market is getting increasingly desperate. The daily VIX slams are getting more and more ridiculous. It’s getting to the point that the VIX is getting slammed 5%-6% every single day at 9:50AM  just to pin the S&P 500 (they’re not even trying to get a gain anymore). Here’s the VIX. Here’s …

Over 99% of investors continue to live in delusion. That delusion is that stocks are NOT in a bubble. They are. In fact, it’s arguably about to become the biggest stock bubble in history. According to John Hussman, stocks have been more expensive based on median valuations only ONCE before in history. That was the …

Do you know Seth Klarman? Klarman is founder of Baupost Group and is widely considered to be one of the greatest value investors in history. In 30+ years from 1982 to 2015, he only had three losing years, and is believed to have averaged returns of 16%. Bear in mind, he did this while keeping …

Janet Yellen has confirmed that the ($USD) is going to collapse. I don’t mean a systemic, going to zero, collapse (though one day the $USD, like all fiat currencies will fail). I mean that the $USD is going to drop hard in the coming 18+ months. How hard? I believe we’ll see the $USD in …

Very few investors caught on to it, but a few weeks ago the Fed made its single largest announcement in eight years. First let me provide some context. For eight years now, the Fed has propped up the stock market. In terms of formal monetary policy the Fed has: ·      Kept interest rates at ZERO …

The credit cycle is turning for the worse. Delinquency rates are creeping up in the consumer loan and commercial/industrial loan space. This is a clear signal that both the consumer and the corporate sectors of the economy are beginning to run out of steam. In response to this, banks are pulling back on lending. If …

As we noted yesterday, the world’s Central Banks have begun sending signals that the price of money in the financial system (bond yields) is going to be rising. Why is this a big deal? Because globally the world has packed on $68 TRILLION in debt since 2007. And ALL of this was issued based on …