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Phoenix Capital Research

Founded in 2009, Phoenix Capital Investment Research is an investment strategy firm offering innovative investment research products to investors. We publish research. We don’t broker deals. We don’t manage assets. Our success has been based on the fact that our ideas make our clients money. See our Products page to find out more about how we can help you with your investment goals.

Articles by Phoenix Capital Research

Bubble Watch: The Fed KNOWS We’re in a 1999-Type Mania…

December 26, 2017

The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last. This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018. It is …

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Is the Bond Market About to Call the Fed’s Inflationary Bluff?

December 21, 2017

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation. This represents a kind of endgame for the Fed. Since the early ‘80s, the Fed has been actively understating inflation via a variety …

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The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

December 20, 2017

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate …

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What is The Everything Bubble? And how can you prepare for it?

November 29, 2017

What do formerly successful hedge funds going out of business, wacky economic data points, and the election of populists like Donald Trump all have in common? All of them are the product of The Everything Bubble. In the aftermath of the 2008 Crisis, Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via low interest …

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The Fed Isn’t “Confused” About Inflation… It WANTS You In the Dark!

November 16, 2017

The Fed claims it’s “confused” as to why inflation remains so low. The Fed isn’t confused at all. It intentionally measures inflation in ridiculous ways to guarantee that the “official number” remains nowhere near reality. On top of this, we have factual evidence that Fed is in fact well aware that inflation is clocking in …

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Who Are You Going to Trust, the Fed or $76 Trillion in “Smart Money”?

November 9, 2017

Let’s talk about inflation. There are two types of inflation in the world… the “inflation” that you and I experience in the form of a rising cost of living induced by Central Banks devaluing our currencies… …and the inflation that Central Banks are “targeting” in the bizarre claim that somehow hitting said targets will unleash …

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Over Two Thirds of Global GDP Is Entering an Inflationary Shock

November 8, 2017

The world is careening towards an inflationary shock. As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what's happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what's about to take place. Below is a chart you have to see. This chart shows the Producer Prices Index for the four …

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If This Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble

November 7, 2017

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds. Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back). Why would anyone want to lend these companies money? Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of …

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Two Critical Charts For Investing Successfully Over the Next 12 Months

November 6, 2017

Something truly massive happened in early 2017. That “something” was the market shifted from deflation towards an inflationary outlook. If you don’t believe me, you can see for yourself. Inflation expectations broke out of a multi-year downtrend. Not only that, but  they have since continued higher, bouncing of support. Investing in the markets is like …

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The Everything Bubble is Officially Published!

October 23, 2017

I am beyond thrilled to announce that my book The Everything Bubble is now available to purchase at Amazon. You can purchase it by CLICKING HERE. This book is a distillation of over a decade of work. It is divided into two sections (How We Got Here and What's to Come). How We Got Here …

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Inflation Watch: Central Banks Just Printed the Equivalent of Germany’s GDP

October 4, 2017

The world’s Central Banks have finally succeeded in unleashing an inflationary storm. The first pickup has only just begun to be felt. But this time next year, when inflation is well north of 4% globally and the big price moves have already occurred, everyone will be screaming “INFLATION!” How did this happen? Globally, Central Banks …

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Red Alert: the Market Rigs Have Unleashed the “I” Word

October 2, 2017

Central Banks have FINALLY created inflation. Starting in late 2016, Central Banks began actively rigging the stock market via a number of gimmicks. They are: 1)   Slamming the VIX lower to force risk-parity funds to buy stocks. 2)   Selling the Japanese Yen and buying $USD to force stocks higher via the Yen carry trade. 3)   …

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Forget the Balance Sheet Reduction, Focus on the Next Round of QE

September 20, 2017

Let the farce begin. The Fed meets today to discuss whether or not to begin shrinking its balance sheet.  The financial media informs us that this is the single most important Fed meeting in years and that its coming announcement is a game-changer. Give me a break. The Fed will NEVER let its balance sheet …

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The Most Important Chart in the World Is Getting Uglier By the Day

September 13, 2017

The $USD continues to drop like a brick, having taken out critical support in the near-term. This is just the beginning. It's only going to get worse from here. Here’s the $USD’s chart running back 40 years. I call this the “single most important chart in the world,” because how the $USD moves has a …

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The Bubble Is Now So Massive Even Wall Street is Getting Nervous

September 7, 2017

The market bubble has become so massive that even Wall Street is nervous. To be clear, investment banks do best when stocks are in a bull market. And they love bubbles because it means more M&A, IPOs, dead offerings, stock issuance and other deals from which they derive their revenues. So for Wall Street CEOs …

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This Isn’t Happened to Gold in Over a Decade

September 5, 2017

The next leg up for Gold is officially here. Gold has broken out of the mother of all triangle patterns established by the long-term bull market trendline established in 2006 and its seven-year descending line from the 2010 peak. Of course, things won’t be moving in a straight line from here. But the upside target …

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This is the Single Most Important Chart in the World

August 29, 2017

Yesterday we talked about the US Dollar ($USD) dropping below critical support. By quick way of review, here’s the key chart. As you can see, the $USD staged a large bull market run in 2014 as the Fed wound down its QE program. The greenback was then range bound for three years until this month …

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The Single Most Important Chart in the World is Breaking Down

August 28, 2017

While everyone continues to focus on stocks, a much larger, far more important situation is brewing in the single most important asset class in the world. That situation involves the US Dollar ($USD). While CNBC and the financial media love to talk about stocks, the reality is that stocks are actually one of the smallest …

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The Fed Just Admitted It No Longer Has a Clue What’s Going On

August 24, 2017

The Fed July FOMC minutes, that were released last week, were nothing short of extraordinary. However, to fully appreciate just what the Fed admitted, we first need a little background. From November 2016 until June 2017, the Fed was pushing a hawkish agenda. The running mantra at this time was that the Fed would raise …

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The Stock Market Bubble is So Big Even the Fed’s Talking About It

August 17, 2017

The Fed confirmed yesterday that stocks are in a bubble. Lost amidst the usual Fed-speak about inflation and other items were the following nuggets. 1)   “Equities” (read: stocks) were the primary reason the Fed discussed financial stability risks. 2)   The Fed raised its assessment of financial stability from “notable” to “elevated.” 3)   The Fed discussed …

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Junk Bonds Wave a Red Flag at Risk

August 14, 2017

The market should bounce this morning, but after that we’re heading down. The technical damage from last week was severe with the bull market trendline that has supported stocks since early November being violated on the S&P 500. Moreover, stocks finished down during August options expiration week in six of the last seven years. So …

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The Market is Lurching Closer and Closer to a Single Day Flash Crash

August 4, 2017

Whoever is rigging the market is getting increasingly desperate. The daily VIX slams are getting more and more ridiculous. It’s getting to the point that the VIX is getting slammed 5%-6% every single day at 9:50AM  just to pin the S&P 500 (they’re not even trying to get a gain anymore). Here’s the VIX. Here’s …

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The Last Time Stocks Were This Expensive Was… March 2000

August 1, 2017

Over 99% of investors continue to live in delusion. That delusion is that stocks are NOT in a bubble. They are. In fact, it’s arguably about to become the biggest stock bubble in history. According to John Hussman, stocks have been more expensive based on median valuations only ONCE before in history. That was the …

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Investment Legend Warns of a 1987-Type Market Crash

July 27, 2017

Do you know Seth Klarman? Klarman is founder of Baupost Group and is widely considered to be one of the greatest value investors in history. In 30+ years from 1982 to 2015, he only had three losing years, and is believed to have averaged returns of 16%. Bear in mind, he did this while keeping …

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Janet Yellen and the Coming Collapse of the US Dollar

July 24, 2017

Janet Yellen has confirmed that the ($USD) is going to collapse. I don’t mean a systemic, going to zero, collapse (though one day the $USD, like all fiat currencies will fail). I mean that the $USD is going to drop hard in the coming 18+ months. How hard? I believe we’ll see the $USD in …

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Did the Fed Already Ring the Bell at the Top?

July 19, 2017

Very few investors caught on to it, but a few weeks ago the Fed made its single largest announcement in eight years. First let me provide some context. For eight years now, the Fed has propped up the stock market. In terms of formal monetary policy the Fed has: ·      Kept interest rates at ZERO …

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Banks Are “Pulling the Plug” On Another Debt Bubble

July 17, 2017

The credit cycle is turning for the worse. Delinquency rates are creeping up in the consumer loan and commercial/industrial loan space. This is a clear signal that both the consumer and the corporate sectors of the economy are beginning to run out of steam. In response to this, banks are pulling back on lending. If …

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