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Pascal Dick

Articles by Pascal Dick

Scrap-iron ore price link weakened by trade tensions, Turkish downturn

August 21, 2019

The traditionally strong correlation between ferrous scrap and iron ore has been eroded by global trade upheavals and economic troubles in Turkey, the largest import market for steel scrap.
Previously, the relationship between ferrous scrap and iron ore prices often meant price movement in one would lead to a corresponding price change in the other – with market participants trading on this correlation.

Between 2014 and 2016, the relationship between iron ore CFR China and heavy melting 1/2 (80:20) steel scrap CFR Turkey – respectively the global benchmarks – was robust, showing a correlation of 87.3% for that time period.
Over 2017 and 2018, the correlation weakened considerably until it showed signs of a decoupling this year.
In fact, the correlation in 2019 to date was not only weak,

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Turkish steel navigates trade barriers and flagging domestic demand

May 10, 2019

Ahead of the S&P Global Platts Global Metals Awards in London, on May 16, The Barrel presents a special series of articles looking at the global metals trade. Here, Pascal Dick analyzes the impact of new US tariffs, economic headwinds and other challenges on steel and ferrous scrap flows into and out of the country.
After a healthy first half of 2018, the Turkish steel market now faces a drop in demand from both domestic and international customers.
International policy changes and a recession in the Turkish economy have contributed to a wider trade flow diversion across flat steel products like hot rolled coil (HRC), and long steel products like rebar and billet, with some effects also due to be felt more strongly in the wider ferrous scrap pricing complex.

An increase in US tariffs on

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