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Articles by [email protected] (TrueEconomics)

17/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

12 days ago

Russian pandemic numbers are getting seriously out of control, once again, and this outrun was pretty much predictable based on early eit from serious restrictions.Russia managed to lower, but not crush, pandemic pressures between the first wave peak of the second week of May 2020 and the start of July. By mid-August, both new cases and daily deaths counts fell to their post-peak lows. However, starting with September, the pandemic evolved into a second wave, with exponential increase in new cases through today, and deaths following the same trend path.Here is a summary table of the second wave dynamics:And here are Russia comparatives in comparison to some of the peers in the table of countries with more than 100,000 cases:At current rates of new cases arrivals, Russia will still be able

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16/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

13 days ago

In two previous posts, I have updated data for COVID19 pandemic through October 16 for:Global cases and deaths: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.htmlCountries with > 100,000 cases: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-countries-with.htmlNow, as usual, EU27 vs U.S. comparatives.Things are getting once again very serious in Europe, of course, which makes this update a bit of change on prior.So, let’s start with cases and daily deaths:The EU27 are now experiencing a full-blown second wave of infections. As the result, over October 1-16, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 14 occasions and deaths on 3 occasions.The above development is extremely alarming. As the first chart shows, EU27 is setting new

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16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

13 days ago

Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.As always, the table is presented in two parts:Here are some summary cases:The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world’s population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically ‘average’ to being ‘worse than

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16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

13 days ago

Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:Cases:As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of

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14/10/20: BRIC: Composite economic activity indicators Q3 results

15 days ago

We covered in detail strong recovery in BRIC Manufacturing PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html) and fragile recovery in Services PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-services-pmis-q3-results.html). Here is a summary chart:Now, let’s take a look at BRIC Composite PMIs for 3Q 2020:Brazil Composite PMI ended Q3 2020 on a reading of 51.6 – an improvement on 31.8 in 2Q 2020. Brazil’s Composite PMIs have run sub-50 recessionary reading in 1Q and 2Q 2020, returning to growth in 3Q 2020, albeit at the levels not consistent with a V-shaped recovery.Russia Composite PMI stood at a strong 55.9 reading in 3Q 2020, up on 32.6 in 2Q 2020 and signaling an end to 2 consecutive quarters of sub-50 readings. This marks the fastest

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14/10/20: BRIC: Services PMIs Q3 results

15 days ago

BRIC Manufacturing has rebounded strongly from thee pandemic lows, as covered in this post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html. Services PMI for the BRIC economies signal similar, albeit weaker rebound in July-September:Brazil Services PMI stayed in the recession territory in 3Q 2020, with index reading coming in at 47.5, up on 30.3 in 2Q 2020, but still marking a third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Put simply, unlike manufacturing that is showing rather incredible signs of the recovery, Brazil’s services sectors continue to show ongoing contraction, building on 6 consecutive months of contracting activity through August 2020. September monthly reading at 50.4 is statistically indistinguishable from zero growth line of 50.0. In

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14/10/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs Q3 results

15 days ago

BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China – economies have posted a significant improvement in Q3 Purchasing Managers Indices in Manufacturing sector:Brazil Manufacturing PMI rose to 62.6 – the highest on record in 3Q 2020 following 42.0 recessionary reading in 2Q 2020. This is a massive rebound from pandemic lows, and the level of 3Q reading puts into question validity or accuracy of the surveys. On a monthly basis, the index was at 64.7 and 64.9 in August and September. Brazil’s manufacturing index was at sub-50 readings in March-May 2020, with a reasonably credible rebound in June and July. August and September readings are literally out of the ball park, both in terms of historical comparatives and in terms of past turning points from recessions to expansions. Russia Manufacturing PMI

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12/10/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for September

17 days ago

September data on Irish Purchasing Managers Indices is now complete (with Construction sector reporting last), and the signals coming from the data are not pretty:Services sector activity is back in contraction: September reading of 45.8 shows relatively sharp downward momentum, swinging 6.6 points on August reading. September reading is statistically below 50.0 zero growth line, and below historical mean (55.0).Manufacturing sector reading is at stagnation 50.0 in September, down from 52.3 in August. Statistically, September reading is below historical average of 51.4.Construction sector is posting a second consecutive month of contraction at 47.0 in September. The reading is statistically below both the historical mean and the median, as well as below 50.0 zero growth line.This means

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8/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

21 days ago

Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:14-days MA of deaths has risen since the lows of ca 100/day to current levels of ca 140/day.Stripping out some volatility induced by the timings of reports, deaths are on a rising trend signalling the onset of the second wave of the pandemic around the first week of September.Overall, Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19 that started around the last week of August (in terms of new cases numbers).Russia recorded an average of 9,474 new cases per day in the last 7 days, up on 7,140 in the prior seven days period. In attributed daily deaths, current 7-days average is 156 against prior 7-days average of 128.Here are peer comparatives:

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8/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

21 days ago

Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27

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7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

22 days ago

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world’s population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world’s deaths.BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world’s population, 40% of world’s cases and 30% of attributed deaths.8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of ‘worse-than-average performers’ (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks

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7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

22 days ago

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:What the numbers above are telling us:New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.Daily

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4/10/20: Technological Deepening Is Coming for Our Jobs

25 days ago

In my recent article for The Currency (link here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/my-recent-article-on-potential-long.html), I argued that COVID19 will act as an accelerator of technological capital deepening in the modern economies, with a resulting faster displacement of workers (including highly skilled ones) by technology. McKinsey survey of the developing trends in businesses strategic responses to the pandemic confirms my hypothesis:Per above, across all sectors, and (peer charts below) across specific sectors, businesses are planning to prioritize deployment of technology in addressing long-term change in response to the current pandemic. McKinsey state that "Fifty-five percent of leaders anticipate that at least half of their organization’s workforce will be fully or

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3/10/20: Eurocoin Leading Growth Indicator 3Q 2020

26 days ago

Eurocoin, a leading growth indicator for the euro area published by CEPR and Banca d’Italia posted another negative (recessionary) reading in September (-0.31) after marking peak growth contraction of COVID19 pandemic period in August (-0.64). This puts Eurocoin in negative territory for the 6th consecutive month since March 2020. Current forecast for 3Q 2020 growth remains at -3.5 percent q/q. Deflationary pressures are also building up. Euro area’s 12 months average HICP forecast for 3Q 2020 stands at around 0.6 to 0.5.As the chart above shows, Eurozone remains deeply in a recessionary territory based on Eurocoin forecasts and inflation dynamics. Longer term growth averages are shown in the chart below:Overall, as noted above, one must take all leading indicators and forecasts with some

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3/10/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs Q3 2020

26 days ago

Based on July-September data, here are the main takeaways from the BRIC Manufacturing Sector PMIs for 3Q 2020:Brazil Manufacturing PMIs gained serious speed in 3Q 2020 compared to 2Q 2020, rising from a recessionary reading of 42.0 in April-June to signal rapid recovery at 62.6 over the last three months through September. This marks the highest quarterly reading on record for the country Manufacturing sector. Dynamically, growth accelerated in every month since the start of the sector recovery in June 2020.Russia Manufacturing PMI came in at a disappointing and contractionary 49.5 in 3Q 2020, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings, although still an improvement on the pandemic period low of 39.0 set in 2Q 2020. Adding pressure to the already poor performance, monthly

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2/10/20: A new mortgage arrears crisis on its way

27 days ago

My latest article on Irish banking sector problems with distressed mortgages is out today in The Currency: There’s a new mortgage arrears crisis on its way, and official Ireland is not ready for itThe Central Bank of Ireland has started publishing new data on mortgage arrears – and the news is not good. An arrears crisis is brewing. The banks, and the state, are woefully unprepared for it.https://thecurrency.news/articles/24779/theres-a-new-mortgage-arrears-crisis-on-its-way-and-official-ireland-is-not-ready-for-it/

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27/9/20: U.S. Labor Force Participation and Employment-Population Ratios

September 27, 2020

Yesterday, I posted updates to the America’s Scariest Charts series on the U.S. labor markets (see https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts-duration.html). Two commonly over-looked and under-reported labor markets statistics worth covering in any analysis of economic conditions in the country are:The labor force participation rate, andThe employment to population ratio.Both have been shockingly impacted by the COVID19 crisis, and both are experiencing only partial recovery to-date. As the chart above illustrates:U.S. Labor Force Participation rate stood at 61.8 at the end of August 2020, a slight deterioration on July 2020 (62.0), but above the COVID19 trough of 60.0 in April 2020. Current level is below 2020 average of 61.9, which is itself the lowest

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Duration of Unemployment

September 27, 2020

Adding to my prior posts covering:Continued unemployment claims: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.html, andInitial unemployment claims and employment: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.htmlHere is analysis of the latest duration of unemployment data, and a look at employment data across past recessions.As usual with all recessions, average duration of unemployment has fallen in the early days of the pandemic, as new unemployment cases rose dramatically, compared to prior existent claims. Since then, however, average duration has been creeping up. As the jobs recovery continues, we will be seeing further increases in the average duration of unemployment as a sign of longer term unemployment, so keep an

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Employment & Initial Unemployment Claims

September 27, 2020

Starting with initial unemployment claims (continued claims are covered in the earlier post: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.html) through the week ending September 19, 2020, based on non-seasonally adjusted data:Initial unemployment claims fell to 796,015 in the week ending September 12 – marking the lowest number of new claims filed in any week since the start of the COVID19 crisis.The new claims rose back to 824,542 in the week ending September 19, bringing the numbers of new claims back above 800,000.The latest 4 weeks average new unemployment claims stand at 830,890 weekly claims, which is above the highest number reached since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis. Pre-COVID19 period historical high was attained in the week of September

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims

September 26, 2020

Updating my charts for the continued unemployment claims:The latest data is covering the period through September 12, 2020.On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, there were 13,355,586 Americans with continued unemployment claims in the week of September 12, 2020, an increase of 212,869 on the week prior, but 9,438,559 down on the COVID19 peak reached in the week of May 9, 2020. At the lowest point in pre-COVID expansion period, weekly continued claims stood at 1,350,834. In the last 4 weeks through September 12, 2020, average decline in continued unemployment claims was 461,476. At this rate of decline, it will take the U.S. economy 26-27 weeks to recover its pre-COVID19 lows in terms of continued unemployment.Current level of continued unemployment claims implies 9.14% unemployment rate.Per

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True Economics 2020-09-26 15:11:09

September 26, 2020

My recent article on potential long-term impacts of COVID19 pandemic on corporate development and investment strategies for The Currency: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/24259/workers-should-brace-themselves-things-will-only-get-worse.

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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

September 25, 2020

Sweden is not acquiring the fabled ‘herd immunity’, folks. And other Nordics are now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:As the figures above show, Sweden has been experiencing a reduction in new cases through the first week of September. This resulted in Swedish daily case counts finally dropping below the numbers reported in other Nordic countries. Since the start of September, Nordics ex-Sweden have entered the second wave of Covid19 pandemic, further exacerbating their relative position compared to Sweden.However, Sweden itself is now experiencing the second wave of the pandemic, and Sweden’s historical troughs of new cases have remained always higher than the troughs reached by the other Nordic states.Both Sweden and the rest of the Nordics continue to enjoy low levels of

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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

September 25, 2020

Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19, although it is still in the early stages of this development:Russia first started to impose lockdowns around March 2, which lasted through mid-June (an earlier partial lifting of lockdowns in Moscow took place in the first week of June). The lockdowns coincided with much lower daily cases and deaths than are being registered currently, but despite this, Russia is not currently planning to impose stricter controls on social activities in the wake of the accelerating pandemic numbers. The reason for this is the expressed hope that the recently-released vaccine against the COVID19 will be widely available to the general population by November 2020. The vaccine does not have an independent peer-validated confirmation of its effectiveness

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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

September 25, 2020

Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:The U.S. continues to ‘lead’ the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the

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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

September 25, 2020

Updating U.S. and EU27 numbers for COVID19 pandemic for the last 7 days:Per above chart, the U.S. continues to pull away from EU27 in terms of deaths per capita of population. However, as shown in the chart net, EU27 is now in a full-blown contagion wave number 2, with new cases exceeding prior (wave 1) peaks.The increase in new cases in Europe is now also reflected in rising death counts. Current EU27 death counts are in excess of the numbers that triggered winter shutdown of the European economies.Key takeaways from the above:EU27 is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic, with case numbers well in excess of anything witnessed during the first wave peak.As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 3 occasions.Despite this, overall counts

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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

September 25, 2020

This week’s update on worldwide numbers for the pandemic:New cases are now trending up once again, as the world continues to experience the first wave of the pandemic. Meanwhile, new deaths remain relatively stable at highly elevated levels. The local trough in deaths counts that took place at the first week of June is now firmly surpassed and we are still close to the post-trough peak. The above conclusions are also confirmed by the growth rates which have ticked up significantly in the second half of September.To see the trends more clearly:Key takeaways from the above charts and tables:As of 12/09/2020, we have once again surpassed past all-time peak and are currently running at historical highs in terms of new cases.Local peak in daily deaths counts was attained in the first week of

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22/9/20: COVID19 Update: German Economic Growth Forecasts 2020-2022

September 22, 2020

Germany’s ifo Institute published their forecasts for 2020-2022 today. These represent an improvement on Summer forecasts, but continue to show big impact of the COVID19 pandemic lasting beyond 2021:Private consumption is expected to be 0.82 percentage points below 2019 at the end of 2022, and barely in line (0.78 percentage points above) with 2018 levels. GDP is forecast to reach 1.34 percentage points above 2019 levels in 2022. Employment levels are projected to stay below 2019 levels through most of 2022, and unemployment numbers are expected to stay above their 2019 levels through the entire 2022. General Government deficits will remain in 2020, 2021 and 2022.Using pre-2020 trend growth, German economy would have been 1.66 to 1.85 percentage points ahead of the GDP levels now forecast

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18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with more than 100,000 cases

September 18, 2020

Some descriptive stats and relative rankings for countries with the largest number of cases:In terms of relative and population-adjusted performance metrics:The U.S. ranks 6th highest in the pandemic extent (number of positive cases per 1 million of population). The EU27 as a whole ranks 23rd highest.The U.S. ranks 8th highest in terms of deaths per capita (number of deaths per 1 million of population). The EU 27 ranks 14th highest.The U.S. ranks 18th highest in terms of mortality rates (deaths per case). The EU 27 ranks 7th highest. The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world’s population, but the country accounts for 24% of all global cases, and 22% of all deaths. In comparison, the EU27 accounts for 6% of the world’s population, 8% of all cases, and 16% of all deaths.U.S. country

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