– by New Deal democrat
I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of a slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase.
My two thresholds are:1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low.2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher.
As of this week, initial claims continue to be very close to their expansion lows. The 4 week moving average of claims Is 217,000, only 7.7% above the lowest reading of this expansion:
On a YoY% change basis, the 4 week average is -1.0% below its level one year ago:
In the first two weeks of November(blue), the average is 218,500 vs. 224,500 for November last yearRead More »