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Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: mandatory lockdowns start to work

1 day ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 4) 

I’ve changed the format, moving the “just the facts, ma’am” data to the top, and comments to the end. 

The four most important metrics are starred (***) below.

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
Number: up +33,787 to 312,245 (vs. +32,857 on April 3)

***Rate of increase: day/day: 12% (vs. 34.6% baseline, 14% for the past week, and 13% on April 3)

The exponential growth rate began to fall on March 24. It now looks like in the past week or so it is in a new, decelerating trend, declining by about -1%/day. Voluntary social distancing was clearly not enough, but the State lockdowns appear to be beginning to  work (more on that in a separate post).

Ben

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Weekly Indicators for March 30 – April 3 at Seeking Alpha

2 days ago

– by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.This was the week when the bottom finally fell out of almost all the remaining data.Clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me a little bit for the effort I put into this endeavor, especially now that I am devoting most of my time to the likely impacts of the coronavirus.

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 4: with lockdowns in place, testing still far behind, no action on necessary “test, track, quarantine” plan

2 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 3) 

I’ve changed the format, moving the “just the facts, ma’am” data to the top, and comments at the end.

The four most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
Number: up +32,857 to 278,458 (vs. +28,879 on April 2) 

***Rate of increase: day/day: 13% (vs. 34.6% baseline, 15% for the past week, and 13% on April 2)

The exponential growth rate began to fall on March 24, but has not made meaningful progress in 6 days. Also, since testing has fallen further behind, some of the rate of growth may be hidden. Voluntary social distancing failed; we don’t yet know how well the State lockdowns are working.

Ben Engebreth is

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 2: voluntary social distancing failed

3 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 2) 

Almost 95% of the US population is now under lockdown.  It appears that measures to date have lowered the rate of exponential growth of new infections, but the voluntary social distancing that was in effect until the first Statewide lockdowns started 2 weeks ago have failed to end that growth. 

But testing in the past 6 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections. We will not be able to transition from the Sledgehammer of lockdowns to the scalpel of aggressive testing and quarantines until this changes. Deaths continue to climb at a steady exponential rate consistent with infections 2 weeks ago.

To transition to a South Korea style program, we also need to be

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March jobs report: the leading edge of the catastrophe

3 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
HEADLINES: 
-701,000 jobs lost
U3 unemployment rate up 0.9% to 4.4%
U6 underemployment rate rose 1.7% to 8.7%
January was revised downward, while February was revised slightly upward, but the net was a decline of -57,000 jobs from previous reports.

Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession

I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall.  With one exception, these were negative to strongly negative: 
the average manufacturing workweek fell -0.3 hours to 40.4 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and will be a big negative.
Manufacturing jobs fell by -18,000. Manufacturing nevertheless gained 12,000 jobs in the past 12 months.
Coal: in 2016, Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back mining

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Why the States must surge medical supplies, explained in two easy points

4 days ago

– by New Deal democratPoint 1:
The most recent “plan” of the Trump Administration is to extend the lockdown through the end of April. It is based on the below graph from a foundation endowed by Bill and Melinda Gates:The graph anticipates roughly 100,000 deaths during April and May, peaking in mid-April at about 2500 deaths per day.
But it also presumes that the lockdown remains in place indefinitely, or at very least that a South Korea-style monitoring system is in place by the time the lockdown is released.
Point 2:
From Senator Chris Murphy:But Trump has no such plan in place, and is not taking any steps to put such a plan in place. He is expecting that the benefits will magically take place anyway.
Which means, since Trump will *never* undertake the necessary actions, either:
1. The

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 2: nationwide lockdown nearly complete, but the surge in testing has completely stalled

4 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 1) 

Close to 90% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it appears to be lowering the rate of exponential growth of new infections.

But testing in the past 6 days has plateaued at about 100,000/day and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections. We will not be able to transition from the Sledgehammer of lockdowns to the scalpel of aggressive testing and quarantines until this changes. Deaths continue to climb at a steady exponential rate consistent with infections 2 weeks ago. 

To transition to a South Korea style program, we also need to be able to trace infections and quarantine those newly infected. For that we need millions of thermometers, masks, and other equipment. There is no

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 1

5 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 31) 

Over 75% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it appears to be lowering the rate of exponential growth of new infections.

Based on South Korea’s experience, a ratio of 15:1 in total tests to results showing infection is the level where there can be some confidence that the infections have been contained. But testing in the past 5 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections. We will not be able to transition from the Sledgehammer of lockdowns to the scalpel of aggressive testing and quarantines until this changes.

The above three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns

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The best “less worse” news of the entire coronavirus pandemic so far

5 days ago

– by New Deal democratAll is not lost. There can be light at the end of the tunnel.

Italy – the epicenter of the pandemic several weeks ago – has clearly turned the corner, recording fewer new cases day/day (from the Financial Times):

It joins China and South Korea as one of the countries on the downside of new infections. Note that Germany and Spain also look like they are on the verge of peaking as well. And even Spain and the US show signs of “bending the curve.”

The US has gone from a 35% growth rate in most of March, to a 19% growth rate in the past week, to 15% in each of the last three days.

Further, within the US there are indications that those States which moved the earliest to lockdowns in several of their metro areas – Washington and California – have also

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 31: more States finally implement lockdown; testing rate still poor

6 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 30) 

It looks like there is near-consensus in the medical community that a “first China, then South Korea”  (or, “Sledgehammer then Scalpel”) approach is the paradigm to tamp down the pandemic. 

Nearly 75% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it may be beginning to break the band of exponential growth. 

Based on South Korea’s experience, a ratio of 15:1 in total tests to results showing infection is the level where there can be some confidence that the infections have been contained. I pointed that out to Bill McBride a week ago, and he is now including that in his daily testing graphs. 

The above three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Number and rate of increase of Reported

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A last look at the 2009 – 2020 expansion

7 days ago

– by New Deal democratAll of the most important economic from February has been reported. Since that was the last month before coronavirus derailed everything, I thought I would take a look back and see what shape the economy was in just before the moment of impact.

As usual, the 4 coincident indicators that the NBER usually looks for in determining whether the economy is in expansion or contraction are: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, real sales, and real personal income minus government transfer receipts. Here’s what they look like through February, with each normed to a level of 100 as of August 2019, first in a longer term view:

And now focused on the past year:

Note that all 4 flattened or rolled over at the outset of the 2008 recession. In 2016, production

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 30: exponential growth rate may be decreasing

7 days ago

– by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (March 29) 

I am pleased to read that it looks like there is near-consensus in the medical community that a “first China, then South Korea”  (or, “Sledgehammer then Scalpel”) approach is the paradigm to tamp down the pandemic. 

Over 50% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it may be beginning to break the band of exponential growth.

Based on South Korea’s experience, a ratio of 15:1 in total tests to results showing infection is the level where there can be some confidence that the infections have been contained. I pointed that out to Bill McBride a week ago, and he is now including that in his daily testing graphs. Testing in the past 4 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with

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(Abbreviated) coronavirus dashboard for March 29

8 days ago

– by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (March 28) 

[NOTE: I am not including the State by State breakdown today, which is time-intensive to create. It will resume tomorrow.]

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). 

At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below.

As of now, about 60% of the population is under total or business lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections

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Brace yourselves: the US is setting up a ghastly “natural experiment”

8 days ago

– by New Deal democratWhen I began my “Coronavirus Dashboard,” I was hopeful that it would document the slow progress towards turning a bad situation around, and the ultimate tamping down of the pandemic. Surely increasingly intense and overwhelming public pressure would force a critical mass of government officials to do what was necessary?

Now I am not so sure. The number of cases continue to climb at a double-digit exponential rate, if a less aggressive one than earlier in March. But even more infuriating is that the President of the United States is all but advocating for letting the virus run free come Easter Sunday. This has had a marked effect. The march to universal Statewide lockdowns has almost screeched to a halt. Most importantly, GOP governors in the Confederacy and in

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Weekly Indicators for March 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha

9 days ago

– by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.As you might expect, almost all of the “hard” indicators have crashed. What sticks out is that consumer spending, as measured by chain store sales, has not – even though one week ago the coronavirus restrictions were very much in place in many regions.As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you thoroughly up to date. It also helps reward me for my efforts, especially now that I have cut back on posting there in order to spend a lot of time documenting what is happening and what is likely to happen going forward with the coronavirus pandemic.

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 28: testing falls further behind

9 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 27) 

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). 

At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

As of now, just over 50% of the population is under total or business lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated significantly – but is still growing at near 25%/day. The amount of testing continues to increase, but still is

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 27: (unsurprisingly) voluntary distancing appears to be failing

10 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 26) 

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). 

At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

As of now, just over 50% of the population is under total or business lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated significantly – but is still growing at near 25%/day. The amount of testing continues to increase, but still is

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Notes on the economy and coronavirus issues

11 days ago

– by New Deal democratAs is obvious, I have stopped reporting on almost all incoming economic data, as anything older than last week is out of date. But once the last important February data is reported tomorrow, I will take one last fond look back at our pre- Coronavirus Recession economy. How close to recession was it? 

I also want to write a few more detailed posts on several points. But for now, let me leave a quick note about some important issues going forward.

1. The federal government under Donald Trump is NEVER going to do what is necessary to bring this pandemic under control. Success is only going to be achieved by cooperative action by the States.

2. As I forecast, the increasing urgency of the pandemic has put the States under enormous public pressure to take more

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 26: southern “red” States resist effective measures

11 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 25) 

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs at least 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). 

At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Yesterday we crossed two out of three of those thresholds – just over 50% of the population is under lockdown or near lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated substantially. The amount of testing continues to fall

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Director-General of the WHO remarks favorably on a first China, then South Korea approach

12 days ago

– by New Deal democratTedious Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, tweeted the following about the way that Suppression/lockdown regimes must work to be successful:

In summary, to be effective, a relatively short period of total lockdown needs to be used to ramp up testing, tracing, and quarantining. Once that is accomplished, and re-transmission of the virus is brought down to lower levels, then a South Korea-style regimen that allows the general lockdown to end can be implemented.

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Lockdowns work

13 days ago

– by New Deal democrat1. San Francisco (lockdown ordered March 16) vs. New York City (lockdown ordered March 20)2. San Francisco vs. Miami-Dade County (no lockdown)
3. Kentucky vs. Tennessee
4. Italy
Lockdowns work. We only need complete lockdowns a few weeks, during which we ramp up manufacture and supplies to test kits and emergency medical equipment like masks and ventilators.

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More support for several weeks of China followed by a few months of South Korea

13 days ago

– by New Deal democratYesterday the Buffoon in Chief all but demanded that mitigation efforts be stopped, and that the pandemic be allowed to run its course except for the aged and infirm, on the theory that the economy would be better off, and really, what’s a few million lives in comparison to the loss of profits he is suffering by the closure of six of his properties? 
I’ve crunched some numbers to show why that wouldn’t work, but since part of the response is that there is a far more effective way to confront the pandemic that actually would accomplish a relatively quick economic rebound, I wanted to present that first.
Remember that last week I suggested that the best way to attack the coronavirus pandemic both from the public health and the economic perspectives was 2 weeks of

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 24

13 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 23) 

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
Number: up +11,226 to 46,450 (vs. +8,477 on March 23)
***Rate of increase: day/day: 32% (vs. 34.6% baseline and vs. 32% on March 22)

I am using Jim Bianco’s excellent

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 23

14 days ago

– by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (March 22) 

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
Number: up +8,477 to 35,224 (vs. +7,123 on March 22)
***Rate of increase: day/day: 32% (vs. 34.6% baseline and vs. 36% on March 21)

I am using Jim Bianco’s

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This is what exponential growth looks like: 2,500,000 infected in the next 15 days, 50,000 deaths

14 days ago

– by New Deal democratI had originally planned on limiting this post to the next 10 days. But then the Buffoon-in-Chief tweeted this:

So let’s look at the number of diagnosed infections and deaths in the US by the time Trump gets around to deciding what to do. Bottom line: about 2.5 million *diagnosed* infections, and about 50,000 deaths baked in the cake at a 2% mortality rate, if the current exponential rate of spreading continues. 

Let me start by revisiting Jim Bianco’s March 10 graph one last time. At the time he put up the graph, there were 959 diagnosed coronavirus cases in the US:

That’s the information he had to work with. He deduced an exponential growth rate of 34.6% per day. Using that, he projected that over the next 10 days ending March 21, there would be

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 22

15 days ago

– by New Deal democratThis is a new daily or nearly daily update I hope to post, including the most important metrics to show how controlled – or out of control – the cononavirus pandemic is. Hopefully the numbers will move ever closer to the tipping point where the epidemic is under control. In order to bring this pandemic under control, and prevent both health and economic catastrophes, in my opinion the US needs 2 weeks of China (total lockdown, preventing community spread) followed by 1 month of South Korea (extremely aggressive testing). The metric to be watched for testing is a ratio of 15 tests administered for every infection found (the ratio at which South Korea turned the corner). Here is the update through yesterday (March 21) 
Number and rate of increase of Reported

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 22

16 days ago

– by New Deal democratThis is a new daily or nearly daily update I hope to post, including the most important metrics to show how controlled – or out of control – the cononavirus pandemic is. Hopefully the numbers will move ever closer to the tipping point where the epidemic is under control. 
In order to bring this pandemic under control, and prevent both health and economic catastrophes, in my opinion the US needs 2 weeks of China (total lockdown, preventing community spread) followed by 1 month of South Korea (extremely aggressive testing). The metric to be watched for testing is a ratio of 15 tests administered for every infection found (the ratio at which South Korea turned the corner). 
Here is the update through yesterday (March 21) 
Number and rate of increase of Reported

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Weekly Indicators for March 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha

16 days ago

– by New Deal democratA vignette….

Cognoscenti: “It’s impossible to forecast the economy.”

Forecaster: “Actually, if you rely upon a tried and true series of long and short leading indicators, you ca-“

Deity: “OH YEAH??? TRY FORECASTING THE GIANT SCREAMING METEOR OF DEATH!!!!!”

G.S.M.O.D.: [BOOM!]

Forecaster [poking head through rubble]: “Y’know, Deity, that really wasn’t very fair.”

Sigh. At least, the high frequency indicators have been the first to show the economic impacts of the coronavirus, as opposed to waiting around for monthly data. The Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Clicking through and reading will bring you as up to date as possible on the economic carnage, as well as reward me a little bit for my efforts.

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The best US solution to the coronavirus pandemic: SHUT.IT.DOWN — two weeks of China + one month of South Korea

17 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
For the last few weeks, I have been screaming at the top of my lungs about “exponential growth.”   That’s because so few people realized the impact such growth could have in a pandemic, over the course of just a few months, even weeks.I first began thinking about this as soon as I read a Tweet by Trevor Bedford a month ago about how coronavirus had probably been circulating, undetected, in Washington for three to six weeks. I immediately thought, with a jolt, about what that meant in terms of exponential growth.Looking back over my private correspondence, I see where I first voiced the likely impact back on February 27. Here’s what I wrote then:——-“The CDC only has 250 working test kits. They have *none* to spare to check for community spread. Thus the virus will

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The Coronavirus Recession has begun

18 days ago

– by New Deal democratThis morning we got two reports that confirm the beginning of the Coronavirus Recession: initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.Initial claims rose to 281,000 one week ago. They are now 15% higher than their low last April, as well as almost 15% higher preliminarily on a monthly basis than last March, and the 4 week moving average is just shy of 5% higher than one year ago.  This meets two of my three “recession warning” triggers for this metric.The Philadelphia Fed’s new orders subindex came in at -15.5, a big decline from last month’s +33.6, that clearly represented manufacturers’ trying to lock in new supplies. Together with the Empire State’s big decline to -9.3 earlier this week, the average of the new orders subindexes for the

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