While the recent drop in unemployment claims was celebrated by the markets and media, it shouldn’t have been. The drop in unemployment claims occurred for the wrong reason.
Continued state unemployment claims lag initial claims by a week, and are more important than initial claims. It is continued claims that determine the official unemployment rate.
The rate is set by survey on the week that contains the 13th of the month, the weeks in boxes.
Last week I reported “Seasonally-adjusted continued claims fell from 11,183,000 last week to 10,018,00 this week.”
This week we see continued claims fell from 9,373,000 to 8,373,000.
We had massive revisions primarily in California which was investigating fraud.
Continued ClaimsRead More »