It’s been about a month since I last posted on the yield curve. Let’s take a current snapshot.
US Treasury Yields 1-Year to 30-Years
The 30-year long bond set a new record low end-of-day yield of 1.94% in late August.
Yields then went on a tear, with the 30-year scorching up to 2.37%. In that time, the yield curve remained strongly inverted throughout. Note the 1-year yield (pink line) was higher than the 10-year yield (orange line) through early October.
It was not until early November that the yield curve mostly uninverted. Only two small inversions remain now as shown in the lead chart.
US Treasury Yields 2000 – 2019-11-19
The larger picture shows not much has changed. Bounces in yields come and go.
Attitudes, however, have changed. People have written off the recession because of