Wednesday , January 20 2021
Home / Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Articles by Mike Shedlock

First of Many Cancellations: PGA Strips Trump of the 2022 PGA

9 days ago

First of ManyIn the first of many cancellations to come PGA will strip Trump Bedminster of 2022 PGA Championship.The PGA of America will strip Donald Trump of the 2022 PGA Championship, which is scheduled to be held at Trump National Bedminster golf club in New Jersey. In a blistering column that says the golf world must sever all ties with Trump, Golfweek’s Eamon Lynch said the PGA has been debating for two years the need to move the major championship and, once Trump is out of office, will announce the tournament will be played elsewhere.Golfweek Column ExcerptsWhen historians eventually tally the cost of the Donald Trump era, the manifold indecencies of which culminated in Wednesday’s sacking of the United States Capitol during a failed insurrection, golf will not be counted among its

Read More »

Add Toomey to the List of Republicans Willing to Impeach Trump

10 days ago

Pat Toomey on ImpeachmentRepublican Senators Willing to Take a StandSenator Pat Toomey (R., PA) cites impeachable offenses.Senator Ben Sasse (R., NE.) said Trump violated his oath of office.Senator Lisa Murkowski (R., AK) became the first Republican senator to call for Mr. Trump to resign.Senator Mitt Romney (R., UT) publicly blasted Trump. "I believe the president has disregarded his oath of office," Sasse said. "He swore an oath to the American people to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. He acted against that." Romney has not yet stated an opinion on impeachment but I am quite sure he would do it. Romney’s speech calling out GOP was the culmination of years of warning about Trump Recall that Romney was the only Republican to vote for Trump’s impeachment last year. It is

Read More »

Trump to be the First President Twice Impeached

10 days ago

Article to Accuse Trump of Inciting an InsurrectionThe WSJ reports House Democrats to Introduce Article of Impeachment Against Trump.House Democrats plan to introduce an article of impeachment against President Trump on Monday, according to two Democratic aides, as lawmakers intensified calls to remove the president soon before the end of his term after he encouraged a mob that later stormed the Capitol in an effort to disrupt the certification of his election loss to President-elect Joe Biden.
 More than 150 House Democrats, well over half of the caucus, have signed on to the article of impeachment written by Reps. David Cicilline of Rhode Island, Ted Lieu of California and Jamie Raskin of Maryland that focuses on the breach of the Capitol complex and accuses the president of inciting an

Read More »

Trump is Now Toxic, The Value of His Endorsement is Negative

11 days ago

The Trump Brand is Not RecoverableMajor campaign contributions to Trump and endorsements will sink like a rock. His brand is history. The same applies to the 11 foolish senators who elected to go down with Trump’s sinking ship.Who Wants a Refund?The Tweet I replied to drips with irony if you read it carefully. Major Donor Bails on Senator Hawley Hawley was one of the 11 Republican Senators who opportunistically went down on the sinking Trump ship.Please note that A Major Josh Hawley Donor Calls for Him to be Censured by the U.S. Senate. A Joplin businessman who helped bankroll Sen. Josh Hawley’s first campaign denounced him on Thursday as a “political opportunist” who used “irresponsible, inflammatory, and dangerous tactics” to incite the rioting that took over the U.S. Capitol Building.

Read More »

Five Fed Presidents Praise Inflation, Not Threatened by Rising Yields

11 days ago

Five FED presidents praise financial fraud.
In 2004, the FBI warned congress of massive mortgage fraud. In 2005, Greenspan praised bankers for getting people into homes they otherwise could not afford.
Greenspan was praising massive mortgage fraud, which allowed people to get into homes they could not afford. After the housing bust, Greenspan pretended to lament that he thought the bankers would have been more responsible. Greenspan encouraged the irresponsibility with his taking of lending standards to ZERO.
Bernanke followed up by pretending, after he left office, that he lamented he had not referred any bankers.
Stable prices means no change. That is the FED’s mandate. 2% inflation is not stable prices. How can five FED presidents cheer violating their mandate of stable prices? It is

Read More »

Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

11 days ago

BLS Jobs Statistics at a GlanceThe BLS reports total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 140,000 in December with private jobs down by 95,000.The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was an increase of 50,000 jobs. ADP Estimated a Loss of 123,000 Private  Jobs, nearly on the nose.Details from the monthly BLS Employment Report.Nonfarm Payroll: -140,000 to 142,624,000 – Establishment SurveyEmployment: +21,000 to 149,830,000- Household SurveyUnemployment: +8,000 to 10,736,000- Household SurveyBaseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 to 6.7% – Household SurveyU-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 11.7% – Household SurveyCivilian Non-institutional Population: +145,000 to 261,085,000Civilian Labor Force: +31,000 to 160,567,000 – Household SurveyNot in Labor Force: +115,000 to 100,663,000 – Household SurveyParticipation

Read More »

Trump Crossed a Constitutional Line and Should Resign

12 days ago

Donald Trump’s Final DaysThe best outcome would be for Trump to resign to spare the U.S. another impeachment fight says the WSJ editorial board in Donald Trump’s Final Days.Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are demanding that Mr. Trump be removed from office immediately—either by the Cabinet under the 25th Amendment or new articles of impeachment. There’s partisan animus at work here, but Mr. Trump’s actions on Wednesday do raise constitutional questions that aren’t casually dismissed.In concise summary, on Wednesday the leader of the executive branch incited a crowd to march on the legislative branch. The express goal was to demand that Congress and Vice President Mike Pence reject electors from enough states to deny Mr. Biden an Electoral College victory. When some in the

Read More »

Trade Deficit Is the Highest Since August 2006

12 days ago

Eddie_T2 hrsSo….if we’re taking about the historical pattern of trade imbalances because we import so much from China…my take is that is that US consumers have been more beneficiaries of that phenomenon than victims. Net wealth effect.
For the short run maybe it’ a leading indicator of higher unemployment…..which is certainly not good…but maybe to be expected until the pandemic starts to fade.
People should get vaccinated asap. We need to beat this virus.
Things weren’t looking terrible until the pandemic hit.

Read More »

Karl Rove Blames Trump for Georgia Fisaco

12 days ago

Crazy Ideas"Who put’s these crazy ideas into Trump’s head?," asks well-known Republican strategist Karl Rove in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, The Republican Party Is in Disarray.If you have access to the article please read it. Here are the key ideas in my estimation, all direct quotes of Rove’s article.Rove Places the BlameThe Senate is lost, the GOP is bitterly split and Trump’s actions have consequences.  A key factor was the decision by many independents and soft Republicans to vote Democrat—largely, it appears, in response to Mr. Trump’s actions since the presidential election. Mr. Trump’s unrelenting personal attacks on Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger also drew attention away from the Senate race while igniting an intraparty civil war.

Read More »

What’s Behind the Surge in M1 Money Supply?

12 days ago

M1 Money Supply ComponentsHere’s a list of M1 components.M1 consists of currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; plusDemand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; plusOther checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.The St. Louis Fed M1 Description also includes Traveler’s checks, but the amount is tiny. The Traveler’s Check series was discontinued in 2018

Read More »

Trump is Unfit For Office, Should He Be Removed Immediately?

13 days ago

Republicans Blast Trump Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: "The vote today is not a protest. The vote today is literally to overturn elections."Actual Cabinet Members Call for the 25th AmendmentHouse Judiciary Pushes for 25th AmendmentMiami Herald Calls for Trump’s RemovalTrump is deranged, dangerous and ‘incapacitated.’ Invoke the 25th Amendment and remove him from office.Senator Mitt Romney (R) Calls Today’s Events an InsurrectionSenator Burr (R) Blasts Trump"The President bears responsibility for today’s events by promoting the unfounded conspiracy theories that have led to this point."Trump Will Be a Man Without a CountryTrump Staff Contemplating QuittingInside the Storming of the CapitolWhat Will History Call Today?US Attorney Ryan PatrickSenator Tammy Duckworth on TrumpSenator Tom Cotton (R)

Read More »

Photos of the Day: Protestor Hangs From Senate Balcony

13 days ago

I am perfectly fine with idiots, morons, the easily led, and ignoramuses voting.
I am perfectly fine with idiots, morons, the easily led, and ignoramuses commenting.
After all, half the population is less intelligent than average.
But when it comes to comitting acts of crime stemming from that stupidity, it’s not acceptable anymore.
Hmmm, do you think there is any video footage of the people in the building today?
Wait a week or two for Feds to show up at their trailer.

Read More »

Trump Supporters Tear Down Fences, Breach the Capitol Building

13 days ago

Law and Order?NY Magazine ReportsDozens of Trump supporters broke through barricades at the Capitol on Wednesday, clashing with U.S. Capitol Police on the steps while lawmakers inside voted to certify Joe Biden’s election victory over Donald Trump, according to eyewitnesses. The clashes came minutes after Trump finished addressing supporters at a separate gathering near the White House.Trump Urges Protesters to March to Capitol to Contest Election ResultsThe Wall Street Journal reports Trump Urges Protesters to March to Capitol to Contest Election ResultsHundreds of protesters knocked over a barricade on the west side of the Capitol and marched up the steps, some yelling “take the Capitol!” and reaching the edge of the building. Police sirens blared and officers rushed toward the crowd.
A

Read More »

ADP Forecasts a Big Job Loss in December

13 days ago

ADP December 2020 Forecast Private sector employment decreased by 123,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  Change by Company SizeMedium-sized businesses, defined as companies with 500-999 employees have been the hardest hit in the pandemic.Mish

Read More »

Georgia Election: Black Votes Won the Day

13 days ago

Black Votes MatterThat’s a key message in the Georgia special elections where both Republican candidates went down in flames casting their fate with Trump while black voters came out overwhelmingly for the Democrats.Unique Importance of Black Voters in GeorgiaWe won’t have detailed demographics information about this race in Georgia for a while, but it is virtually certain that the plurality — and perhaps even an outright majority — of Georgia voters for Ossoff and Warnock are Black.Black turnout is important for Democrats in every state, since 9 in 10 Black voters back Democratic candidates. But the overall Black vote matters even more in Georgia, because around 30 percent of the state’s electorate is Black, compared to about 12 percent of the electorate nationally. And notably, the

Read More »

The Circle is Complete as Democrats Take the Senate

14 days ago

Cook Political Analysis Has Seen Enough Dave Wasserman is U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.Not Official Yet This is not official yet, but it’s over. The only question remaining is the margin of victory. Here’s how we know it’s over. Where the Remaining Vote IsThe remaining vote is overwhelmingly Democrat according to the Nate Cohn’s Election Tracker Needle.We think about 76,000 votes remain. If that’s right, Perdue would need to win about 58 percent of those votes. We think he’s on track to win between  In the process, they will stop Trump’s blatant attempt to steal the election. The Circle is CompleteIn 2016 Trump won the election and had a majority in the both the House and Senate.I would have preferred that Republicans keep the Senate for fiscal reasons even

Read More »

The Georgia Polls are Closed: What I’m Watching Election Day

14 days ago

Nate Silver Live UpdatesNate Cohn Live UpdatesNew York Time Election NeedleHere’s the NYT Election Needle.Live Mish Blog 8:40 EST – Newest Comments LASTWarnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting Warnock vs Loeffler 16% ReportingImportant PointsIt’s not who is in the lead that matters but where the votes are coming fromThe needle is based on how well a candidate is doing vs expectations Those are the key ideas behind the needle.Update 9:00 PM EST: Nate Silver CommentTurnout Speculation 53829% Reporting 9:10 ESTNeedle: 56% Ossoff, 60% Warnock45% Reporting 9:31 ESTNeedle: 57% Ossoff, 63% WarnockElection Trivia Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.Washington County Flips9:42 EST Turnout vs

Read More »

How Did Covid Impact Construction Spending?

14 days ago

Parting WaysFrom 2019 through April 2020 residential and commercial construction followed the same path. Both were on a decline already in 2020 then Covid accelerated the pace. In June of 2020, the recoveries in residential and commercial construction parted ways. It’s easier to spot with year-over-year comparisons.Construction Spending Year-Over-YearNote the great parting of ways ahead in 2006 of the Great Recession. It’s a reverse setup now with residential leading.Fed’s Response in PlayWhat’s happening now reflects Covid and also the Fed’s response to it. Interest rates are the lowest in history thanks to the Fed. Commercial, especially malls, were already in a bad spot given trends in online shopping.Covid amplified online shopping trends as well as the need for less office space due

Read More »

Will Pence or Someone Else Preside Over the Electoral Count on Wednesday?

14 days ago

Pence or Grassley?Pressure on Pence What’s with the original "we don’t expect him to be there" quote?Pence may very well wish to not preside over the count. It has happened before and it would relieve Pence from having to take a stand for or against Trump.For discussion, please see Pence is in the Limelight as Trump Increases PressureWhat If?There’s another way Grassley would preside. If Trump resigned before the count, Pence would become president, and Grassley, as the Senate president pro tempore would preside.This appears to be a moot point because I do not expect shenanigans from Grassley.But what if it was Senator Ted Cruz instead of Grassley presiding over the count?Mish

Read More »

Pence is in the Limelight as Trump Increases Pressure

14 days ago

Trumpian Lie of the DayPence has no such power. Pence gets to count the votes. That’s it, and we already know what the votes are.Pence Faces DilemmaThe Wall Street Journal reports Pence Faces Dilemma Over Biden Election Confirmation, as Trump Digs In.Rallying voters in Georgia ahead of Tuesday’s Senate runoff elections, President Trump delivered a political message to an entirely different audience: his vice president.
“I hope that Mike Pence comes through for us,” Mr. Trump said to cheers. “He’s a great guy. Of course if he doesn’t come through, I won’t like him quite as much.”Mr. Pence’s team had already sought to manage the tricky situation. Chief of staff Marc Short issued a statement Saturday after a group of Senate Republicans said they planned to raise challenges to some of the

Read More »

How are Gold and Money Supply Related?

15 days ago

Let’s investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. Let’s also investigate what’s happening with M1, a more narrow measure of money supply.Clear Correlation?The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let’s investigate the above idea in other time frames.Note: This subject came up again today, this time in reference to M1. It’s an important topic because it is widely misunderstood. This is a repost with an additional fresh chart on M1 at the end plus a discussion of how M1 is distorted by Sweeps.Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money SupplyIf we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face.One can force a correlation starting in 2010 but that is purposeful cherry-picking a timeframe.

Read More »

Assange is a Political Prisoner, Free Him Now

15 days ago

Political PrisonerJulian Assange took refuge in the Embassy of Ecuador in London in June 2012. On 11 April 2019, Ecuador removed Assange’s asylum following a series of disputes. Assange was then arrested and held by the UK.Wikipedia has these Notes on Julian Assange.Julian Paul Assange born 3 July 1971, is an Australian editor, publisher, and activist who founded WikiLeaks in 2006. WikiLeaks came to international attention in 2010 when it published a series of leaks provided by U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning. These leaks included the Baghdad airstrike Collateral Murder video (April 2010), the Afghanistan war logs (July 2010), the Iraq war logs (October 2010), and Cablegate (November 2010). After the 2010 leaks, the United States government launched a criminal investigation

Read More »

Trump Sues Georgia Sec of State Over Leaked Phone Call

16 days ago

Find the VotesThe red hot story of the day just got hotter. First here is the background.‘There is nothing wrong with saying, you know, that you recalculated,’ the president told Brad Raffensperger.The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Pressured Georgia Secretary of State to ‘Find’ VotesPresident Trump in a Saturday telephone call urged Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the November election results that delivered the state to President-elect Joe Biden. “I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have because we won the state,” he told Mr. Raffensperger on the call, adding later, “It’s not a problem that is going away.” Mr. Biden won the state by 11,779 votes out of about 5 million cast.Transcript and AudioKudos to Brad Raffensperger for recording

Read More »

Democrats are In the Lead in Both Georgia Senate Races

16 days ago

Georgia Senate Runoff Contestants Republican U.S. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue face Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia runoff elections. Spotlight on the PollsMany people dissed the 2020 election polls. Yes, the polls had problems. But the problems were universal and the polls did get the presidential election winner.Trafalgar vs. Nate SilverState by State ResultsGeorgia: Biden 49.5 vs Trump 49.3: Biden +0.2Nevada: Biden 50.1 vs Trump 47.7: Biden +2.4Florida: Trump 51.2 vs Biden 47.9: Trump +3.3Pennsylvania: Biden 50.0 vs Trump 48.8: Biden +1.2Ohio: Trump 53.3 vs Biden 45.3: Trump +8.0Michigan: Biden 50.6 vs Trump 47.8: Biden +2.8North Carolina: Trump 50.1 vs Biden 48.7: Trump 1.4Arizona: Biden 49.4 vs Trump 49.1: Biden +0.3Wisconsin Biden 49.6 vs

Read More »

The Vaccine Rollout is Much Slower Than Expected

17 days ago

Meanwhile in the UK…
A SAGE adviser today hinted a third national lockdown including mass school closures may be required to suppress Covid as he insisted ‘keeping people apart’ stops the virus from spreading.
Professor Sir Mark Walport claimed the ‘mutant’ strain of coronavirus was transmitting rapidly among children, with those aged between 12 and 16 seven times more likely to ‘infect’ a household.
Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show as Liverpool’s leaders called for a blanket shutdown, he said it would be ‘very, very difficult’ to keep the disease under control ‘without tighter social distancing measures’.
Sir Mark also suggested the UK has struggled to keep cases down because it is a ‘western liberal democracy’, hinting that draconian countermeasures adopted in unfree countries

Read More »

Trump’s Dangerous Delusions Increase in Magnitude

17 days ago

Three Tweet Delusional MadnessIf Trump wanted to prove why Twitter should be allowed to censor Tweets at its discretion, he just did.Interesting FlashbackYet Another Audit of Georgia’s ElectionPlease note, Yet another audit of Georgia’s election fails to find evidence of fraudOn Tuesday, December 29, the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger released a report on that audit — which, according to Atlanta Journal Constitution reporter Mark Niesse, "contradicted allegations that absentee ballots were rife with fraud." Niesse notes that "there were 10 absentee ballots that had been accepted, but voter signatures didn’t match or signatures were missing" — and when Raffensperger’s office contacted those voters, they confirmed that they had, in fact, submitted the ballots."Eight

Read More »

Exploding Debt Levels Will Kill the Stock Moon Launch

18 days ago

Realist1 dayClearly, there are as many predictions about the future as there are individuals. Regarding investments, you can find numerous predictions that echo what you believe, if that makes you feel better. Personally, I would rather admit that I have no idea of what the future holds for my investments, and focus instead on diversifying as much as possible, in terms of assets, and geography.
Stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, farmland, private equity, cash, etc all have a place in my portfolio, precisely because I have no idea which will perform better at any given moment in time. Being well diversified and rebalancing frequently has worked for me throughout my entire life. I see no reason to gamble on what someone else thinks the future will hold, because there are an infinite number of

Read More »

New Year Kicks Off With the First Override of Trump

18 days ago

Congress Overrides Trump’s Veto of NDAASenate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised an override of Trump’s veto of the National Defense Authorization Act  (NDAA) and he delivered it.The bipartisan vote came after Trump’s veto, objecting to the renaming of Confederate military bases.Trump also demanded a repeal of the legal immunity social-media companies enjoy for users’ content,  a provision that has nothing to do with NDAA. Wall Street Journal CommentsMr. Trump has vetoed eight other bills during his time in the White House, with several of them focused on foreign policy and national-security issues, such as U.S. military activity in Yemen, the use of force against Iran, and arms sales to Saudi Arabia. While Republicans had joined Democrats to initially pass those measures, supporters

Read More »