The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut on July 31 topped the 70% mark in the wake of a dive in leading indicators.
CME Fedwatch notes a huge jump in the odds of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed on July 31.
This is an edited post. In the hour or so that it took me to write this, the odds jumped from 49% to 71%.
Increasing Odds of 50 BPs Cut
Today (one hour ago) 49.3%
Now (2:48 PM central) 71.0%
1 Week ago: 19.9%
1 Month Ago: 17.9%
The odds jumped yesterday from the prior week on news Housing Slowly Rolling Over: June Permits Down 6.1%, Starts Down 0.9%
The odds jumped today from yesterday on news Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Unexpectedly Dive Into Negative Territory
What’s Really Happening?
Traders are front-running the Fed.
History shows the Fed is highly likely