Thursday , November 15 2018
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Michael Lebowitz

Michael Lebowitz

Co-Founder 720 Global. Strategic Expertise: Macro-Econ, Asset Alloc, Valuation, Risk Mgt.

Articles by Michael Lebowitz

Is It Time To Buy The Home Building Sector (XHB)

1 day ago

Throughout modern financial history, the ability to borrow at a 5% rate on a 30-year mortgage was considered a great deal. Over the past ten years, mortgage rates falling to between 3% and 4% have warped perceptions. Evidence of this fact can be found by the sticker shock and home buyer consternation that the currently available 5% mortgage rate is causing. The rate shock is not limited to home buyers; the home building sector has fallen over 30% since it recorded a record high in January 2018. Notably, a month before hitting that record, the popular SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) surpassed the previous record high established at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

Mortgage rates play a large role in housing affordability, which greatly affects housing sales and prices, economic

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“Blind Faith” Isn’t A Strategy For “Late-Cycle” Markets

8 days ago

“The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.”  – Lao Tzu
In a tiny first step on December 16, 2015, the Federal Reserve (Fed) did something they had not done in over nine years. From the unprecedented starting point of zero, they raised the Fed Funds rate. Since, they have begun to allow their swollen balance sheet to contract in what can only be characterized as another unprecedented event. Although monetary policy remains extreme and real rates only recently have turned positive, these measures mark the end of an era of maintaining extreme financial crisis monetary policy in the United States.
Reversing these experimental policies initiates a new set of dynamics which will gradually reduce excessive liquidity from the financial system. Just as quantitative easing (QE) and zero

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The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation

15 days ago

“Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman
This oft-cited quote from the renowned American economist Milton Friedman suggests something important about inflation. What he implies is that inflation is a function of money, but what exactly does that mean?
To better appreciate this thought, let’s use a simple example of three people stranded on a deserted island. One person has two bottles of water, and she is willing to sell one of the bottles to the highest bidder. Of the two desperate bidders, one finds a lonely one-dollar bill in his pocket and is the highest bidder. But just before the transaction is completed, the other person finds a twenty-dollar bill buried in his backpack. Suddenly, the bottle of water that was about to sell for one-dollar now

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Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors

22 days ago

There is an old saying that proclaims, “it’s not the size of the ship, but the motion of the ocean.” Since this is a family-friendly publication, we will leave it at that. However, the saying has a connotation that is pertinent to the bond market today. Much of the media’s focus on the recent surge in yields has been on the absolute increase in numerical terms. The increase in rates and yields, while important, fails to consider the bigger forces that can inflict pain on bond holders, or sink the ship. When losses accumulate and fear of further losses mount, volatility and other instabilities can arise in the bond market and bleed to other markets, as we are now beginning to see in the equity markets.
Since 1983, fixed-income investors have been able to put their portfolios on autopilot,

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Chairman Powell – You’re Fired

29 days ago

“I’m a low interest rate person” – Donald Trump 2016
On Donald Trump’s hit TV show, The Apprentice, contestants competed to be Trump’s chief apprentice. Predictably, each show ended when the field of contestants was narrowed down by the firing of a would-be apprentice. While the show was pure entertainment, we suspect Trump’s management style was on full display. Trump has run private organizations his entire career. Within these organizations, he had a tremendous amount of unilateral control. Unlike what is required in the role of President or that of a corporate executive for a public company, Trump largely did what he wanted to do.
On numerous occasions, Trump has claimed the stock market is his “mark-to-market.” In other words, the market is the barometer of his job performance. We

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Why Fed’s Monetary Policy Is Still Very Accommodative

October 10, 2018

Here are two statements from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) immediately following their interest rate decisions of August 1, 2018 and September 26, 2018.
August 1, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.75-2.00%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
September 26, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.00-2.25%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market

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Defining Accommodative

October 10, 2018

Here are two statements from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) immediately following their interest rate decisions of August 1, 2018 and September 26, 2018.
August 1, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.75-2.00%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
September 26, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.00-2.25%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market

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Sailing Versus Rowing : Active Versus Passive

October 3, 2018

Investor preferences shift between active and passive investing in a cyclical manner. Periods where the market has a strong tailwind of momentum behind it tend to attract a greater demand for passive strategies especially when that momentum carries on for a prolonged period of time. Alternatively, periods of market turbulence tend to swing sentiment back to active investing as a means of avoiding the risk of large losses. In the most recent bullish cycle the combination of market direction and the availability of index-friendly instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have resulted in an unprecedented shift towards passive strategies and securities.
To clarify the difference between the two investment approaches, active investing seeks to outperform the market by beating a benchmark

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15 Bullish Assumptions

September 26, 2018

If all goes well for nine more months, the post-financial crisis economic expansion will become the longest economic expansion in recent U.S. history. The U.S. stock markets are also on a tear, having just become the longest bull market since World War II. Regardless of your views about these trends continuing, the fact of the matter is that they are both much closer to ending than a beginning. Ray Dalio recently quantified this continuum, declaring that the economy is in the 7th inning, implying another one to three years of continuation.
While the markets can certainly keep motoring ahead, as Dalio and many others expect, there are some factors supporting the bullish case that investors should contemplate.
While this list is not by any means exhaustive, it does offer many of the most

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A Walking Contradiction – Warren Buffett

September 19, 2018

“I have ways of making money you know nothing about.” – John D. Rockefeller
Contradiction- A situation in which inherent factors, actions, or propositions are inconsistent or contrary to one another- Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary
Investors and the media can’t seem to get enough of Warren Buffett. They hang on his every word as if he was sent from the heavens offering divine words of wisdom. Unfortunately, Buffett is a mere mortal, and like the rest of us, he tends to promote ideals that benefit his self-interests over yours.
The purpose of this article is not to degrade Buffett, as we have a tremendous amount of respect for his success and knowledge. In this article we look at a few recent statements and actions of Buffett’s to highlight some contradictions that lie in their wake. Our

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We The People

September 12, 2018

“We want capitalism and market forces to be the slave of democracy rather than the opposite.” – Thomas Piketty
The essential underlying elements of supply, demand, scarcity, and prosperity described in our first article in this series, The Forgotten Path to Prosperity, are keys to gaining a better understanding of what constitutes a well-functioning economy. In this article, we further consider those dynamics and within that context begin to evaluate why current economic growth is stagnating. Our view necessarily advocates for a focus on supply-side economics. In other words, the talent, skills, and work that people do to acquire resources and how the resulting productivity growth from those endeavors most effectively relieves scarcity and poverty.
In his best-selling book Capitalism in

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What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold

September 5, 2018

If you were contemplating an investment at the beginning of 2014, which of the two assets graphed below would you prefer to own?

Data Courtesy: Bloomberg
In the traditional and logical way of thinking about investing, the asset that appreciates more is usually the preferred choice.
However, the chart above depicts the same asset expressed in two different currencies. The orange line is gold priced in U.S. dollars and the teal line is gold priced in Turkish lira. The y-axis is the price of gold divided by 100.
Had you owned gold priced in U.S. dollar terms, your investment return since 2014 has been relatively flat.  Conversely, had you bought gold using Turkish Lira in 2014, your investment has risen from 2,805 to 7,226 or 2.58x. The gain occurred as the value of the Turkish lira

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What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold

September 5, 2018

If you were contemplating an investment at the beginning of 2014, which of the two assets graphed below would you prefer to own?

Data Courtesy: Bloomberg
In the traditional and logical way of thinking about investing, the asset that appreciates more is usually the preferred choice.
However, the chart above depicts the same asset expressed in two different currencies. The orange line is gold priced in U.S. dollars and the teal line is gold priced in Turkish lira. The y-axis is the price of gold divided by 100.
Had you owned gold priced in U.S. dollar terms, your investment return since 2014 has been relatively flat.  Conversely, had you bought gold using Turkish Lira in 2014, your investment has risen from 2,805 to 7,226 or 2.58x. The gain occurred as the value of the Turkish lira

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Running On Empty

August 29, 2018

We would like to introduce you to Sam and his finances. Currently, Sam does well for himself, earning $100,000 a year. Sam loves the good life, and to maintain it he consistently spends more than he earns. To fund this continual budget shortfall, he borrows money. The graph below shows his rising income (green) and accumulating debts (red) since 1966.

Unfortunately, Sam is not a hypothetical person. Sam, as represented in the graph above, is really Uncle Sam. The graph proportionately scales U.S. tax revenue and government debt outstanding data to Sam’s current income of $100,000. Currently, annual tax revenue stands at $1.908 trillion while the total amount of government debt outstanding is $21.090 trillion.
To further emphasize the growing divergence between tax revenue and debt

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Running On Empty

August 29, 2018

We would like to introduce you to Sam and his finances. Currently, Sam does well for himself, earning $100,000 a year. Sam loves the good life, and to maintain it he consistently spends more than he earns. To fund this continual budget shortfall, he borrows money. The graph below shows his rising income (green) and accumulating debts (red) since 1966.

Unfortunately, Sam is not a hypothetical person. Sam, as represented in the graph above, is really Uncle Sam. The graph proportionately scales U.S. tax revenue and government debt outstanding data to Sam’s current income of $100,000. Currently, annual tax revenue stands at $1.908 trillion while the total amount of government debt outstanding is $21.090 trillion.
To further emphasize the growing divergence between tax revenue and debt

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The Weaponization of the Dollar

August 22, 2018

The Uncivil Civil War discussed the sanguine approach many investors take towards equity risk despite clear signs of domestic political turbulence. The article put the upcoming elections and the growing political divisions amongst the populace into context with market risks.
While we read plenty of politically related articles and many more investment related articles, we have found precious few that bridge the gap and gauge the effect politics has on markets. The intersection of markets and politics is important and should be followed closely, especially with a mid-term election months away. As so eloquently described by the late Charles Krauthammer, “You can have the most advanced and efflorescent cultures. Get your politics wrong, however, and everything stands to be swept away. This

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Wicksell’s Elegant Model

August 15, 2018

“It’s unbelievable how much you don’t know about the game you’ve been playing all your life.” – Mickey Mantle
The word discipline has two closely related applications. Discipline may refer to the instruction and nurturing of an individual. It can also carry the connotation of censure or punishment. The purpose of discipline, in either case, is to sustain integrity or aim toward improvement. Although difficult and often painful in the moment, discipline frequently holds long-lasting benefits. Conversely, a person or entity living without discipline is likely following a path of self-destruction.
The same holds true for an economic system. After all, economics is simply the study of the collective decision-making of individuals with regard to their resources. Where capital is involved,

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Whatever it Takes

August 8, 2018

“At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.”  – Voltaire
 “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” – Mario Draghi July 26, 2012
On July 26, 2012, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi essentially guaranteed the ECB would not allow the markets to cripple the Euro region. This shot across the bow finally remedied the instability caused by the sovereign debt crisis. The markets quickly reversed the damaging trends and uncertainty that had plagued the Euro-zone for months.
Draghi’s statement essentially boiled down to a promise that the ECB would print unlimited amounts of money to stop the “harmful” will of investors.
Fiat currency, be it dollars, euros, yen, or any other major currency

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Are The Market Generals Leading Us To War?

August 1, 2018

Market Wizards, a best-selling investment book written by Jack Schwager, is a must-read for investors looking to improve their performance. Each chapter of the book provides a biography and an interview of a highly successful trader/investor. Originally published in 1989, the book is full of valuable lessons from some of the best in the business, including Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Rogers, Marty Schwartz, and Ed Seykota.
Of timely interest is a quote from William O’Neil:
“Another way to determine the direction of the general market is to focus on how the leading stocks are performing. If the stocks that have been leading the bull market start to break down, that is a major sign the market has topped.”
The “leading” stocks that O’Neil mentions are commonly referred to as the “Generals.”
On

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QE4 – When, Not If – RIA Pro

July 31, 2018

Many market prognosticators attribute the rise in interest rates to a consensus outlook for expanded economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures. In our article, Deficits Do Matter, we took this view to task by providing market-based evidence to show that those factors only account for about a third of the increase in interest rates.  Our perspective is that the rapidly growing forecasted supply of Treasury debt coupled with limited demand from the two largest holders of Treasury securities are currently the main drivers of higher yields.
In this article we take that analysis a step further and ask a question that few seem to be considering; what if there is a recession in the coming year or two? In answering that question, from the perspective of the federal deficit and related

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Everyone Hears The Fed…But Few Listen

July 27, 2018

Announcing RIA Pro
After several long months of research, development and input from our loyal readers and subscribers, we are pleased to announce RIA Pro, a new subscription service by Real Investment Advice and 720Global. 
As gratitude for your patience we are providing all Real Investment Advice readers access to this RIA Pro article which discusses the growing misconception that Chairman Powell’s Fed is as investor friendly as Yellen and Bernanke were.
Currently the site is up for a limited number of BETA test users. If all goes well, as we suspect, it will be released to everyone shortly.
RIA Pro will have exclusive articles covering important aspects of the market such as this one, as well our model portfolios, daily commentary, videos, market data, charts, analysis, and A LOT more.

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Everyone Hears The Fed…But Few Listen – RIA Pro

July 26, 2018

Everyone Hears the Fed but Few Listen
“See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil”
Currently, investors appear to be covering their eyes, ears, and mouths and ignoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) determination to increase interest rates. This divergence of outlooks between investors and the Fed is a stark departure from the financial crisis and the years following when the Fed and the market were on the same page regarding monetary policy.
Often such a discrepancy between the Fed and investors results in sharp changes in asset prices and heightened volatility. In this article, we analyze the current situation to predict whether the market’s dovish expectations will be proven right, or if their unwillingness to heed the Fed’s warnings will cost them dearly.
Trump vs. Powell
As we were

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The ABC’s of QE and QT – RIA Pro

July 26, 2018

Search the internet for “QE and money printing”, and you will see countless articles explaining why Quantitative Easing (QE) is or is not money printing.
Here are a few articles that we found:
“The Fed’s Magic Money-Printing Machine”
“Bernanke Admits to Congress: We are printing money, just not literally”
“America’s reckless money-printing could put the world back into crisis”
“Why Quantitative Easing isn’t printing money”
Is QE money printing or is it something else that appears to be money printing?
Some will say that the question is irrelevant, as QE ended a few years ago. We disagree, and it has nothing to do with proving our opinion on the matter right or wrong. It is extremely important to understand what QE is and is not as the reversal of QE, known as Quantitative Tightening (QT),

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The Fallacy of Macroeconomics – RIA Pro

July 26, 2018

“The hubris in economics came not from a moral failing among economists, but from a false conviction: the belief that theirs was a science. It neither is nor can be one, and has always operated more like a church. You just have to look at its history to realize that.” –Collaborative Fund
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has over 750 Ph.D. economists on staff, many of whom sport degrees from the finest universities in the world. Given such a population of experts, why does the Fed have such a poor track record forecasting economic activity? Consider the graphs below, which provide recent evidence of the Fed’s futile forecasting efforts, if you find the preceding question slightly condescending or offensive. Please note it is not just the Fed, but poor economic forecasting pervades most economists

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It’s Not To Early To Be Late

July 26, 2018

The golden rule of investing is buy low and sell high. While great advice, it is extremely difficult to accomplish with precision. Because of the perceived impossibility of timing peaks and troughs, many investment professionals prefer a buy and hold approach. They claim that, over time, stocks produce respectable average returns, so why attempt to pick peaks and troughs. We firmly disagree as taking a passive approach and riding the ups and downs in the market guarantees that investors will spend large periods of time recovering losses and not compounding wealth. Because of these losses, buy and hold portfolio returns usually fall far short of average market returns. For more on this reality, see the graph and article linked in the postscript below the article summary.
Prudent investment

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Booming Profits

July 25, 2018

“Better to be paralyzed from the neck down than the neck up.” – Charles Krauthammer
It is easy to be upbeat about the stock market. Currently, as second quarter earnings are being released, the S&P 500 is expected to post a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth in excess of 20%. The first two quarters of 2018 will show the strongest two consecutive quarters of growth since 2010, when earnings were recovering from the fallout of the financial crisis. The recent strength in corporate profits is attributable, in large part, to the federal tax overhaul late last year, but there are other factors contributing as well. The U.S. economy is showing strength, employment data remains strong and consumer spending is upbeat.
Although recent economic output has been encouraging, the Federal

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The Mendoza Line: Is The Fed’s New “Yield Curve” Professional Grade?

July 11, 2018

In professional baseball, there is a performance standard called the Mendoza Line, a term coined in 1979 and named after Mario Mendoza, a player that struggled to hit consistently throughout his career. The standard or threshold is a batting average of .200. If a player, other than a pitcher, is batting less than .200, they are not considered to be of professional grade.
Investors’ also have a Mendoza Line of sorts. This one, the yield curve, serves as an indicator of future recessions. Since at least 1975, an inverted yield curve, which occurs when the 2yr U.S. Treasury note (UST 2) has a higher yield than the 10yr U.S. Treasury Note (UST 10), has preceded recessions. Currently, the 2s/10s yield curve spread has been flattening at a rapid pace and, at only 0.33% from inversion, raises

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The Uncivil Civil War: Economic and Market Implications of Political Transformation

July 9, 2018

Come senators, congressmenPlease heed the callDon’t stand in the doorwayDon’t block up the hallFor he that gets hurtWill be he who has stalledThere’s a battle outsideAnd it is ragin’.It’ll soon shake your windowsAnd rattle your wallsFor the times they are a-changin’
The Times They Are A-Changin’ – Bob Dylan
America’s populace is politically divided in a way that has not been seen in decades. The growing rift is rapidly changing the landscape in Washington D.C. and has major implications for the nation. Amazingly, as voters from different parties espouse views that are worlds apart, they share a strikingly similar message.
This article considers the juxtaposition of colliding worldviews and the unified message that voters across the political spectrum are sending. While many investors are

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Monthly Fixed Income Report – June 2018

July 6, 2018

Monthly Fixed Income Update – June 2018
At the half-way point of 2018, there are a multitude of interesting stories to cover in the fixed income markets. Beginning with June’s performance, the headline remains the divergence in performance between investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) credit. From a total return standpoint, junk bonds (HY) were the best performing sector for the first six months while IG was only kept out of the fixed income cellar by the poor performance of emerging markets (EM).
**Please note there was an error which has since been corrected in the May performance table. For reference, May’s corrected table is shown below June’s.
June’s Performance:

May’s Corrected Performance:

The primary culprit for IG underperformance versus HY is heavy supply from merger and

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Weekend Reading: #MAMI – Make America More Indebted

June 29, 2018

I have spilled a lot of digital ink over the last few years on the trajectory of debt, spending and the impact of fiscal irresponsibility. Most of it has fallen on “deaf ears” particularly in the rush to pass “tax reform” without underlying fiscal restraints. To wit:
“The recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated:
‘Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, and absolutely zero fiscal restraint over the one of responsibility and balance.
Passing fiscally irresponsible budgets just for the sake of passing “tax cuts,” is, well, irresponsible. Once again, elected leaders have not listened to, or learned, what

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