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Marcelo Perez

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Articles by Marcelo Perez

SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

17 days ago

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming!
Note: We first posted this research paper in August 2019, when the yield curve inverted for the first time in the current economic cycle. Well, it inverted once again yesterday, so…
Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other indicators are really saying about the current economy.
Our Special Report on the Yield Curve will help you make sense of this yield curve phenomenon and all its implications, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through these turbulent times.

Click here to download “The Yield Curve And What

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SPECIAL REPORT: Minding The Valuation Gap

21 days ago

Stocks are expensive. Really expensive. A wide gap has opened between the stock market and economic reality, and at some point, the gap between the two will close.
Our Special Report on Market Valuations, Volume 4 in Jeff Snider’s “Follow The Money” series, will help you detail how it might look when it inevitably closes, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through turbulent times.

Click here to download “Follow The Money: Don’t Fight The Fed?” (Sign-Up Required).

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SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

January 8, 2020

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here’s what it said in 2019:

Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).

 
This report includes extensive, in-depth commentary by our President and CEO Joseph Calhoun, as well as a full review of major economic series and market indicators.

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SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

January 2, 2020

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here’s what it said in 2019:

Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).

 
This report includes extensive, in-depth commentary by our President and CEO Joseph Calhoun, as well as a full review of major economic series and market indicators.

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SPECIAL REPORT: Don’t Fight The Fed?

December 11, 2019

QE. Quantitative Easing. The most misunderstood, misinterpreted, misconstrued, mis-overestimated economic policy of the current monetary era. No need for qualifiers or weasel words like “perhaps” or “maybe”. In an age of unprecedented policies – largely ineffective, I might add – in an ocean of official misdirection, quantitative easing stands out as the grandest deception of them all. With the onset of the latest iteration of the policy whose name must not be spoken, it deserves another look.
Our Special Report on Quantitative Easing, Volume 3 in Jeff Snider’s “Follow The Money” series, will help you make sense of what really happened, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through turbulent times.

Click here to download “Follow The Money: Don’t Fight The Fed?” (Sign-Up

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SPECIAL REPORT: It Was The Eurodollars All Along

November 13, 2019

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was felt far and wide, in places with no connection at all to the US mortgage market. That is, or should be, a clue that the crisis wasn’t really about sub-prime mortgages at all. There were places, though, that avoided much of the turmoil. One of the oddest and unexpected might be Argentina, a country that needs no outside help whatsoever to create a financial crisis. Indeed, the country, once one of the richest in the world, has spent a good portion of the last 70 years lurching from crisis to crisis, all of their own making.
Our Special Report on Eurodollars , the 2nd edition in Jeff Snider’s “Follow The Money” series, will help you make sense of what really happened, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through turbulent times.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

October 10, 2019

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn’t waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I’ve related in these missives before, he called those things “well-worried”. His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth your time. That has proven to be valuable advice over the years and I think still relevant today.
We continue to hear, on an almost daily basis, about all the bad things going on in the world. Trade wars, real wars, Ukraine, impeachment, blacklisted Chinese companies, retaliation for blacklisting Chinese companies, tariffs on European goods (scotch??#$%^&!), climate scolding by woke teens, manufacturing recession, pension crisis, rising government

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SPECIAL REPORT: Money Market Turmoil

October 8, 2019

Jeffrey Snider’s Follow The Money Series: Money Market Turmoil
On Monday, September 16, funding markets came under significant pressure. In repo, the GC rate (UST) jumped to 2.876% from 2.288% the Friday before. Repo rates and other money rates like federal funds had been elevated already but this 60-basis point move was highly unusual.
Our Special Report on the Money Market Turmoil will help you make sense of this short-term funding phenomenon and all its implications, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through these turbulent times.

Click here to download “Follow The Money: Money Market Turmoil” (Sign-Up Required).

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SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

September 13, 2019

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming!
Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other indicators are really saying about the current economy.
Our Special Report on the Yield Curve will help you make sense of this yield curve phenomenon and all its implications, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through these turbulent times.

Click here to download “The Yield Curve And What It Means”.

Read More »

Retirees Lose $3.4 Trillion By Claiming Social Security Too Early

September 4, 2019

For years now, there’s been lots of talk about what happens if you claim Social Security benefits before full retirement age (FRA) or even waiting until the maximum age of 70. Claiming early means you’ll receive less money, permanently, than if you waited. In spite of the warnings, only 4% of retirees wait until 70 to claim benefits and that costs trillions of dollars of potential retirement income.
Every year, the Social Security Administration pays more than $1 trillion to more than 65 million people, which accounts for about one-third of all retirement income. Approximately half of retirees say that more than 50% of their income comes from Social Security, and a third say it’s more than 90%.
A study conducted by United Income, The Retirement Solution Hiding in Plain Sight:  How Much

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Hedgeye Podcast: One-On-One With Joe Calhoun

August 27, 2019

Our very own Joe Calhoun, founder and CEO of Alhambra Investments, was invited to feature on Hedgeye’s 20th episode of In the Arena. He joins Hedgeye’s Daryl Jones in a lively discussion on the current investing landscape and hurdles facing the U.S. economy:

https://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/episode-20-joe-calhoun-ceo-alhambra-investments.mp3

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The Benefit of Working With a Fiduciary Adviser

August 16, 2019

What is a Fiduciary?
You may have heard the term in recent times due to the ongoing debate about whether stockbrokers should be held to such a standard. Since doing so would make it harder for them to sell you things that pay them high commissions, peddlers of Wall Street’s wares are, as one might expect, opposed to this imposition. And so far, they’ve been successful in heading off any change to the current system that allows them to follow the self-imposed constraint of selling you only things that are “suitable”, a term of considerable flexibility.
So, what does it mean to be a fiduciary and why does it matter to you? Quite simply, a fiduciary is someone who acts in your stead, solely in your interest and adheres to the Prudent Man Rule or, to update the appellation for modern times,

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How Can We Help?

April 17, 2019

We sincerely hope you’re enjoying Alhambra Investment’s research and analysis. As a gentle reminder, we go well beyond just offering market and economic insights.
Alhambra also manages both Strategic (Passive) and Tactical (Active) portfolios with a talented team of seasoned professionals. As Registered Investment Ad­visers, we have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients and we’d welcome the opportunity to help you achieve your financial and investment goals.
If you are uncertain about your current advisory relationship, or just want a second opinion, we offer a free, no-obligation assessment. We’ll review your asset allocation as well as the costs of your current investment program. Most of the portfolios we review are more complex and costlier than necessary. We can show you how to

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Bloomberg Interview with Jeffrey Snider

October 30, 2018

Why Eurodollars Might Be Key to the Market Sell-Off (Podcast)
There’s a huge market out there that doesn’t get much attention: Eurodollars. These have nothing to do with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Instead, eurodollars are U.S. dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks and overseas branches of American banks. They’re effectively a source of dollars that operates outside the control of the U.S., and have at various times been blamed for exacerbating interbank lending crunches. Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, has a theory that recent market volatility might have its roots in some eurodollar drama. He speaks with Odd Lots about how this market grew in tandem with globalization, and how we should be thinking about it now.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

July 6, 2018

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn’t much – yet – and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve but it isn’t the flatness that provides us with information so much as how it got there. The stall in short term rates tells us the market is getting skeptical about the Fed’s rate hiking path. The Fed may think it is going to hike twice more this year but the market has serious doubts.
In the last report I highlighted the change in the futures market positioning for the 2 year note. The short position had been covered and speculators were actually long the 2 year. And that is still the case and as expected. Futures

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

May 22, 2018

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year – and in future years – due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand is not a recipe for higher prices. In addition, there is some fear that the ongoing trade disputes may impact foreign demand for Treasuries. There are also, as our Jeff Snider has reported, some stresses in the Eurodollar market that are impacting Treasuries. 
An unappreciated source of volatility is the mortgage market. Holders of mortgage securities, such as mortgage REITs, hedge with Treasuries to maintain their desired duration (or interest rate swaps but the result

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