Tuesday , April 23 2019
Home / Lance Roberts (page 30)
Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts has sharpened that lens with 30 years in the investing world from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital. Lance Roberts’ perspective and common sense analysis is sought after by media outlets such as Fox 26 News in Houston, CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News along with numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters and the Washington Post. Roberts is the Editor of the X-Factor report and publishes the blog Daily X-change.

Articles by Lance Roberts

The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO): 04-19-19

3 days ago

The Lesson Of Easter
The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha

Please help us out and download our financial health app today. Search MYWORTH in Apple or Google stores.

The Lesson Of Easter
Last night, I took my family to dinner, and my son asked me:

“Dad, every year we go to church on Easter Sunday and they have the same sermon every year.”

He’s right. I can almost recite verbatim the sermon we will sit through on Sunday morning. However, my answer back to him made him understand the lesson he was supposed to be learning. 
Since he is currently reading George Orwell’s 1984, it reminded me of an important line in that novel.

“The real secret of class distinctions in the West can be

Read More »

Reality Vs Fantasy: What To Watch For This Earnings Season

5 days ago

Just recently, David Robertson ran an article discussing the deviation which has grown between “fantasy” and “reality” in the investing markets.
“The phenomenon of extreme differences is also increasingly appearing in financial numbers, which are the life blood of markets. Andrew Smithers conducted research on the usefulness of accounting numbers and his work was summarized by Jonathan Ford. 
‘Corporate data now provide worse information than before.’
The ironic consequence of all this is that investors increasingly rely on non-Gaap numbers for valuation. These are not only idiosyncratic, and thus not always capable of comparison, they are also devised by bosses whose views may well be richly coloured by their own outsize incentives.’
Henny Sender highlights some prominent examples

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Drive For Show

7 days ago

We Still Need You…
We are closing in on our goal for our beta trial and your help is MOST appreciated. 
Just go to Apple Or Google Play stores and search “MyWorth.” 

Drive For Show
In golf there is an old axiom:
“Drive for show. Putt for dough.” 
This past weekend, Tiger Woods completed a comeback on Sunday by capturing his fifth Master’s title and his 15th major tournament win. It was a victory that snapped a decade-long championship drought and instantly returned him to the top of the sports world.
While his drives were some of the best on display, it was his final two-putt, likely the greatest bogey of his career, which put him 13-under par clinching the title.
Yes, Tiger Woods is back at “all-time” highs.
Congratulations!
However, Tiger Woods’ journey back to the peak of the golfing

Read More »

The Market’s Misread Of The Fed’s Minutes

8 days ago

Last week, the Federal Reserve released their March FOMC meeting minutes. Following the release, the markets surged higher as the initial reading by the markets was “the Fed is done hiking rates.” As the Wall Street Journal reported in Fed Minutes: Officials See Little Need to Change Rates This Year.

‘Minutes of the March meeting released Wednesday showed officials see little reason to continue raising rates due to greater risks to the U.S. economy from the global growth slowdown and muted inflation readings that took more officials by surprise.
‘A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,’ the minutes said.
At the same time, the minutes show

Read More »

Make Stock Buybacks Illegal? 04-13-19

10 days ago

Market Review – Market Climbs Above 2900
Make Stock Buybacks Illegal?
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha

WE NEED YOU!
Please help us out and download our financial health app today. Search MYWORTH in Apple or Google stores.

Markets Climb Above 2900, All-Time Highs Next Stop?
Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the market’s advance from the lows and why retesting old highs was quite probable. To wit:

“The markets are close to registering a ‘golden cross.’ This is some of that technical ‘voodoo’ where the 50-day moving average (dma) crosses above the longer-term 200-dma. This ‘cross’ provides substantial support for stocks at that level and limits downside risk to some degree in the

Read More »

The Myths Of Stocks For The Long Run – Part XII

12 days ago

Written by Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz, CFA of Real Investment Advice
CHAPTER 12 – 181 Lines of Wisdom
Over the last 30-years, I have endeavored to learn from my own mistakes and, trust me, I have paid plenty of “stupid-tax” along the way. However, it is only from making mistakes, that we learn how to become a better investor, advisor or portfolio manager.
You have now read our opinions on buy and hold. Before we conclude we thought you should hear the views of investing legends.
The following is a listing of investing tips, axioms and market wisdom from some of the great investors of our time. Importantly, as you review this invaluable knowlege, compare how these investing legends approach investing as compared to your methodologies, those of your advisor, or what you are told

Read More »

Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Growth Much Weaker Than Advertised

14 days ago

With analysts once again hoping for a surge in earnings in the months ahead, along with an economic revival, it is worth noting this has always been the case. Currently, there are few, if any, Wall Street analysts expecting a recession currently, and many are certain of a forthcoming economic growth cycle. Yet, at this time, there are few catalysts supportive of such a resurgence.
The Fed isn’t hiking rates, but they aren’t reducing them either.
The Fed isn’t reducing their balance sheet any more after September, but they aren’t increasing it either.
Economic growth outside of China remains weak
Employment growth is going to slow.
There is no massive disaster currently to spur a surge in government spending and reconstruction.
There isn’t another stimulus package like tax cuts to fuel a

Read More »

The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing

15 days ago

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday:
“The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: +196,000 – Establishment Survey
Employment: -201,000 – Household Survey
Unemployment: -24,000 – Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: +189,000 – Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work:

Read More »

Experience Is The Only Cure 04-06-19

17 days ago

Market Review – The Run For The Highs Continues
Experience Is The Only Cure
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha

A Run For The Highs Continues

“Fueling the markets are statements from past and present Fed Governors that are not only dovish but discuss a resumption of QE and negative interest rates. Former Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, recently said the Fed needs more tools to battle a financial crisis. This is the same Janet Yellen that, in June of 2017, stated that she did not believe we would have a financial crisis in our lifetimes.
The Fed is sounding the alarms.” – Michael Lebowitz, RIAPRO.net (Try it FREE for 30-days)

Last week, we discussed the market’s advance from the lows and why retesting old highs

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Do You Really Want To Be Out?

21 days ago

Personal Request:
We are almost to our goal…don’t miss out!
We recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio. Try it out and give us feedback as to what features you would like to have. Don’t worry, we won’t ever share your information with anyone…ever. 

Do You Really Want To Be Out?
That was a comment made several times last week with respect to the markets stellar first quarter performance.
“The S&P 500 is on track for its best quarter in a decade, up roughly 12 percent. And if history is any indication, the index could be set for more gains for the rest of the year.
In nine of the 10 previous times since 1950 that the S&P returned more than 10 percent in the first quarter, it went on to post

Read More »

Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession?

22 days ago

Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit:
“Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.”
But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are still plenty of articles suggesting you should just ignore it all and remain invested.
“Economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics has a message for his fellow economists

Read More »

Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19

24 days ago

A Run For The Highs
Ignore The Yield Curve…They Said
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

A Run For The Highs
Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “killing it.”

However, you didn’t.
Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. 

That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many.

If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better

Not surprisingly, historically speaking, investors had their

Read More »

The Bond Bull Market

26 days ago

Last year, I wrote an article entitled “The Upcoming Bond Bull Market,” which, at the time, was pushing against the mainstream consensus which was predicting rates could only go higher. I am updating that article with the latest data points as the overall thesis of “why” we have remained bullish on bonds since 2013 remains intact.
As we said at the time as yields were hitting some of the highest levels seen in the last decade:
“The worse things seem, the better the opportunities are for profit.”
Such is the very nature of investing.
Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, once said:
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”
He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?

28 days ago

Personal Request:
I still need your help with a new project.
We recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio. We need you to try it out and give us feedback as we continue to develop many new features over the next few months. Don’t worry, we won’t ever share your information with anyone ever. We value you and your assistance. Thank you.

Are We Going To New Highs?
I recently received the following email:
“Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?”
The answer is “yes” to both parts.
Thank you for reading. See you next week.
You still here?
Fine, let me explain then.
The “price” of the financial markets are ultimately driven by one thing and one thing

Read More »

For The Average Investor, The Next Bear Market Will Likely Be The Last

29 days ago

Just recently Anna-Louise Jackson published an interesting article asking if “The Financial Crisis” still haunted your investing. To wit:

“This month marks the 10-year anniversary of the current bull market’s beginnings. Yet, many Americans remain reluctant to invest in the stock market, a scary hangover from the 2007-09 recession.
From October 2007 to March 2009, the S&P 500 plummeted nearly 57% and it took more than five years for the index to recover. But the share of Americans with money invested in the stock market still hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels, according to various studies.
In 2018, a Gallup Poll survey found 55% of respondents were invested in stocks or stock funds, either personally or jointly with a spouse, down from 65% in 2007. Among those younger than 35, the

Read More »

What The Fed Really Said 03-22-19

March 23, 2019

Market Review & Recap
What The Fed Really Said
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Still Need Your Help
Last week, I asked you for some help with our new app. We had lots of great responses but we have not reached our needed number of subscribers.
If you would please download our new Financial Health App and try it out, it would be most appreciated. It is backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio, and we never share your data with anyone. Once you try it out, give us feed back as we continue to develop lots of new features over the next few months. 

Market Review & Recap
The volatility in the markets continued this week with another big whipsaw for investors following the Fed

Read More »

The Definitive Guide To Investing For The Long Run

March 22, 2019

Written by Lance Roberts, Michael Lebowitz, CFA and John Coumarianos, M.S. of Real Investment Advice
This complete set of articles discusses the fallacies of always owning stocks for the long run (aka “buy and hold” and passive strategies). Given markets cycle over time, it is important to understand how markets and investing actually work, the impact on your wealth, and what you can do about it.
This series of articles will cover the following key points:
“Buy and Hold,” and other passive strategies are fine, just not all of the time
Markets go through long periods where investors are losing money or simply getting back to even
The sequence of returns is far more important than the average of returns
“Time horizons” are vastly under-appreciated.
Portfolio duration, investor duration, and

Read More »

Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking

March 21, 2019

In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. 
The key language from yesterday’s announcement was:

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter. Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. On a 12-month

Read More »

Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles

March 19, 2019

Personal Request:
I need your assistance with a new project.
We have recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio. Our goal is to develop the next generation financial application to help you get control of, and grow, your wealth. Once you try it out, give us feedback as we continue to develop many new features over the next few months. 

A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles
In this past weekend’s newsletter we noted the issues of similarities between the current market environment and previous market peaks in the past. To wit:
“It isn’t just the economy that is reminiscent of the 2007 landscape. As noted above, the markets also reflect the same. Here are a couple of charts worth reminding you

Read More »

After Two Of The Greatest Bull Markets In U.S. History, Why Are Boomers So Broke?

March 18, 2019

Last week, Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist wrote in a post:
“While it’s true that putting your money on the line is never easy the historical record of the stock market is virtually irrefutable: U.S. markets have consistently performed over long holding periods, even going back to the 19th century.”
This goes back to Wall Street’s suggestion of “buy and holding” investments because over 10- and 20-year holding periods, investors always win.
There are two major problems with this myth.
First, on an inflation-adjusted, total return basis, long-term holding periods regularly produce near zero or negative return periods.

Secondly, given that most individuals don’t start seriously saving for retirement until later on in life (as our earlier years are consumed with getting married, buying

Read More »

The Goldilocks Warning 03-16-19

March 16, 2019

Market Review & Recap
The Goldilocks Warning
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha

Can you help me?
I would appreciate it if you would download our new Financial Health App and try it out. Backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio, we are seeking to develop the next generation financial application to help you get control of, and grow, your wealth. Once you try it out, give us feed back as we continue to develop lots of new features over the next few months. 

Market Review & Recap
Over the last couple of weeks we discussed the “wild swings” in the market in terms of price movements from overbought, to oversold, and now back again. The quote below is from two week’s ago but is

Read More »

Stock Buybacks Aren’t Bad, Just Misused & Abused

March 14, 2019

There has been a lot of commentary as of late regarding the issue of corporate share repurchases. Even Washington D.C. has chimed into the rhetoric as of late discussing potential bills to limit or eliminate these repurchases. It is an interesting discussion because most people don’t remember that share repurchases were banned for decades prior to President Reagan in 1982. 
Even after the ban was lifted, share repurchases were few and far between as during the “roaring bull market of the 90’s” it was more about increasing outstanding shares through stock splits. Investors went crazy over stock splits as they got more shares of the company they loved at half the price. Most didn’t realize, or understand the effective dilution; but for them it was more of a Yogi Berra analogy:

“Can you

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Will The Next Decade Be As Good As The Last?

March 12, 2019

In this past weekend’s newsletter we stated:

“This short-term oversold condition, and holding of minor support, does set the market up for a bounce next week which could get the market back above the 200-dma. The challenge, at least in the short-term remains the resistance level building at 2800.”

That bounce occurred on Monday which allowed us to add some trading positions to our portfolios. We update all of portfolios regularly at RIA PRO (Try now for FREE for 30-days with Code: PRO30)

Our job as portfolio managers is simple:

Protect investment capital, and; (Long-term view)Take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself. (Short-term view)The blending of the short and long-term views is the difficult part for readers to understand.

“If you have a long-term

Read More »

Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities

March 11, 2019

One of the most highly debated topics over the past few months has been the rise of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The economic theory has been around for quite some time but was shoved into prominence recently by Congressional Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “New Green Deal” which is heavily dependent on massive levels of Government funding.
There is much debate on both sides of the argument but, as is the case with all economic theories, supporters tend to latch onto the ideas they like, ignore the parts they don’t, and aggressively attack those who disagree with them. However, what we should all want is a robust set of fiscal and monetary policies which drive long-term economic prosperity for all.
Here is the problem with all economic theories – they sound great in theory,

Read More »

What Do Central Bankers Know? 03-09-18

March 9, 2019

What Do Central Banks Know?
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

In last week’s missive, we discussed a critical point concerning the bull run so far.

“Despite the underlying economic and fundamental data, the markets have surged back to extremely overbought, extended, and deviated levels. The chart table below is published weekly for our RIA PRO subscribers (use code PRO30 for a 30-day free trial)
You will note that with the exception of bond prices, every market and sector is more than 5% above its 50-day moving average and year-to-date performance is pushing more historic extremes both in price and in extreme overbought conditions. 

On virtually every measure, markets are suggesting the fuel for an

Read More »

QE – Then, Now, & Why It May Not Work

March 7, 2019

Since the beginning of the year, the market has rallied sharply. That rally has been fueled by commentary from both the Trump Administration and the Federal Reserve of the removal of obstacles which plagued stocks in 2018. The chart below is an abbreviated, and a bit sarcastic, version of events.

While the resolution of the trade war is certainly beneficial to the economy, as it removes an additional tax on consumers, the biggest support for the market has been the assumption the Fed will return to a much more accommodative stance.
As we summed up previously for our RIA PRO subscribers (try it FREE for 30-days)
The Fed will be “patient” with future rate hikes, meaning they are now likely on hold as opposed to their forecasts which still call for two to three more rate hikes in 2019

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Monthly Chart Review Yields Bearish Signals

March 5, 2019

With the month of February now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now.

Is the bull market back?

That’s the answer we all want to know.

Each week on RIA PRO we provide an update on all of the major markets for trading purposes.

(See an unlocked version here. We also do the same analysis for each S&P 500 sector, selected portfolio holdings, and long-short ideas. You can try RIA PRO free for 30-days with code PRO30)

However, as longer-term investors and portfolio managers, we are more interested in the overall trend of the market. While it is fundamental analysis derives “what” we buy, it is the long-term “price” analysis which determines the “when” of the buying and selling aspects of portfolio

Read More »

The Fed Doesn’t Target The Market?

March 4, 2019

Earlier this month, I penned an article asking if we “really shouldn’t worry about the Fed’s balance sheet?” The question arose from a specific statement made by previous New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley:
“Financial types have long had a preoccupation: What will the Federal Reserve do with all the fixed income securities it purchased to help the U.S. economy recover from the last recession? The Fed’s efforts to shrink its holdings have been blamed for various ills, including December’s stock-market swoon. And any new nuance of policy — such as last week’s statement on “balance sheet normalization” — is seen as a really big deal.
I’m amazed and baffled by this. It gets much more attention than it deserves.”
As I noted, there is a specific reason why “financial types” have a

Read More »

Bull Run Reaches Exhaustion 03-01-19

March 2, 2019

Bull Run Reaches Exhaustion
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

On Tuesday, we discussed a very important point with respect to the bull run so far.

“Despite the underlying economic and fundamental data, the markets have surged back to extremely overbought, extended, and deviated levels. The chart table below is published weekly for our RIA PRO subscribers (use code PRO30 for a 30-day free trial)”

“You will note that with the exception of bond prices, every market and sector is more than 5% above its 50-day moving average and year-to-date performance is pushing more historic extremes both in price and in extreme overbought conditions. 
Those overbought conditions are more prevalent in the chart below. On

Read More »

S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 3-1-19

March 1, 2019

J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you their valuable S&P 500 Valuation Chart Book. This unique analysis provides an invaluable long term perspective of equity valuations. If you are interested in learning more about their services, please connect with them.

Read More »