Thursday , October 21 2021
Home / Lance Roberts
Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts has sharpened that lens with 30 years in the investing world from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital. Lance Roberts’ perspective and common sense analysis is sought after by media outlets such as Fox 26 News in Houston, CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News along with numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters and the Washington Post. Roberts is the Editor of the X-Factor report and publishes the blog Daily X-change.

Articles by Lance Roberts

Technically Speaking: The Bullish & Bearish Market Case

3 days ago

Print Friendly
We dig into the bullish and bearish case for the market as we head into the end of the year. Currently, investors face a conundrum between year-end seasonality and the Fed starting to taper its bond-buying program. Such was evident in a recent email I received from a reader:

“I am holding a lot of cash, and am worried about a deeper correction. While I understand that you recently got more aggressively allocated due to improving short-term technicals, the risk of the Fed beginning to taper their bond-buying seems to be problematic. What do you think I should do?”

It’s a great question, and one that I think represents many of our readers.

One of the biggest challenges investors always face is allocating capital to markets once a correction has occurred. The concern

Read More »

Investors Starting To Realize “Stagflation” Is A Problem.

4 days ago

Print Friendly
Investors are slowly waking up to the realization that “stagflation” is a problem. For years, the term “stagflation” has been thrown around and dismissed like a sighting of “Bigfoot.” However, rising inflationary pressures are now colliding with slowing economic growth. This collision presents a challenge for Central Bankers and their monetary policy experiments.

Let’s start with a definition of “stagflation.”

“Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e. inflation). Stagflation can be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).” – Investopedia

As stated, many believe stagflation

Read More »

Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms

6 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-15-21 issue of “Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms.”

Market Rallies As Earnings Season Kicks OffFOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Taper ComingNavigating UncertaintyPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Rallies As Earnings Season Kicks Off

Two weeks ago, we laid out the case for why we started increasing our equity exposure in portfolios.

“It is

Read More »

Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms 10-15-21

6 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-15-21 issue of “Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms.”

Market Rallies As Earnings Season Kicks OffFOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Taper ComingNavigating UncertaintyPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Rallies As Earnings Season Kicks Off

Two weeks ago, we laid out the case for why we started increasing our equity exposure in portfolios.

“It is

Read More »

Traders Are Pushing Oil, Rates & The Dollar. Are They Right?

7 days ago

Print Friendly
With inflation fears getting stoked by the mainstream media, traders are pushing oil, interest rates, and the dollar higher. Are they right? Or, are they about to get smacked by a slower economy and deflationary headwinds?

Once a quarter, I dig into the Commitment of Traders data to see where speculators are making their bets. Such is an excellent metric to watch from a contrarian view. Generally, when traders are positioned either very long or short in a particular area, it is often a good bet something will reverse.

Positioning Review

The COT (Commitment Of Traders) data, which is exceptionally important, is the sole source of the actual holdings of the three critical commodity-trading groups, namely:

Commercial Traders: this group consists of traders that use

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Is The Risk Of A Bigger Correction Over?

10 days ago

Print Friendly
Is the risk of a more significant correction over now that the expected 5% decline is complete? That was a hotly debated question after this past weekend’s newsletter supporting the idea of a reflexive rally into year-end. As I stated:

“After a harrowing 5% decline, sentiment is now highly negative, supporting a counter-trend rally in the markets. Thus, we think there is a tradeable opportunity between now and the end of the year. But, as we will discuss below, significant headwinds continue to accrue, suggesting higher volatility in the future.“

That comment sparked numerous debates over market outlooks through year-end. To wit:

So, who is right? A hard rally into the end of the year, or a major low?

While we certainly hope for the former, some risks support a

Read More »

The 5000-Year View Of Rates & The Economic Consequences

11 days ago

Print Friendly
The fact we have the lowest interest rates in 5000-years is indicative of the economic challenges we face. Such was a note brought to my attention by my colleague Jeffrey Marcus of TPA Analytics:

“BofA wants you to know that ‘Interest rates haven’t been this low in 5,000-years.‘ That’s right, 5000 years. ‘In the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but no fear on Wall Street this happens anytime soon,’ said David Jones, director of global investment strategy at Bank of America. This should not come as a shock to anyone who has been watching, given that the FED’s balance sheet is now an astonishing $8.5 trillion and that fiscal spending has caused the U.S. debt to balloon to over $28 trillion (For reference, the U.S. GDP is $22 trillion).All of this really means that the FED

Read More »

Is The Great “Bear Market” Of 2021 Finally Over? 10-08-21

12 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-08-21 issue of “Is The Great ‘Bear Market’ Of 2021 Finally Over.?

Is The “Great Bear Market” Finally Over?Debt Ceiling Resolution Is Only TemporaryOdds Are We’ve Seen The Highs For The YearPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Is The Great “Bear Market” Finally Over?

In last week’s newsletter, we stated:

“It is worth noting there are two primary support levels

Read More »

Is The Great “Bear Market” Of 2021 Finally Over?

13 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-08-21 issue of “Is The Great ‘Bear Market’ Of 2021 Finally Over.?

Is The “Great Bear Market” Finally Over?Debt Ceiling Resolution Is Only TemporaryOdds Are We’ve Seen The Highs For The YearPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Is The Great “Bear Market” Finally Over?

In last week’s newsletter, we stated:

“It is worth noting there are two primary support levels

Read More »

Why We Aren’t Repeating The Roaring 20’s Analog

14 days ago

Print Friendly
No. We are not repeating the “Roaring 20’s” analog. Ben Carlson had a recent post asking if the “Roaring 20’s” are already here? As his chart shows below, there are certainly some similarities between 1920 and 2020 given the recent “pandemic shutdown” driven recession.

However, what Ben missed were the differences both economically and fundamentally between the two periods. 

Let me preface this article by stating that I don’t like market analogies, particularly when they are with early market eras like the ’20s. The population of the country was vastly smaller, the financial markets were rudimentary at best, there were few big players in the markets, and the flow of information was slow.

1920 Was The Bottom

Ben makes an important observation to start his post.

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Bears Gain Control As Market Fails Resistance

17 days ago

Print Friendly
With yesterday’s rout, the “bears” gained control of the narrative as the market failed at resistance.

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the market reclaiming the 100-dma on Friday. To wit:

“It is worth noting there are two primary support levels for the S&P. The previous July lows (red dashed line) and the 200-dma. Therefore, any meaningful decline occurring in October will most likely be an excellent buying opportunity particularly when the MACD buy signal gets triggered.The rally back above the 100-dma on Friday was strong and sets up a retest of the 50-dma. If the market can cross that barrier, we will trigger the seasonal MACD buy signal suggesting the bull market remains intact for now.“

Chart updated through Monday’s close.

The failure to

Read More »

Is the “Best Way To Invest” Always The Best Way?

18 days ago

Print Friendly
Is “buy and hold” always the best way to invest? It is common to see increasing numbers of articles touting the benefits of “armchair” investing during long bull market advances. The last decade has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and media websites promoting “buy and hold” investing and diversification strategies.

But is the “best way to invest” during a bull market also the best way to invest during a bear market? Or, do different times call for different strategies?

Such are the questions we will explore.

The Premise Of Buy & Hold Investing

The premise of “buy and hold” investing is sound, particularly for younger investors. Place money into an index fund regularly (dollar cost average), and over a long period, wealth will

Read More »

As Expected, Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak 10-01-21

19 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-01-21 issue of “As Expected, Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak.“

Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak, What’s Next?Why We Are Buying BondsNot Out Of The Woods Just YetPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Stocks Snap The 6-Month Win Streak. What Happens Next?

In mid-August, we discussed the rarity of markets churning out 6-positive months of returns in a row. To wit:

Read More »

As Expected, Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak

20 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 10-01-21 issue of” ‘As Expected, Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak.“

Stocks Snap 6-Month Win Streak, What’s Next?Why We Are Buying BondsNot Out Of The Woods Just YetPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Stocks Snap The 6-Month Win Streak. What Happens Next?

In mid-August, we discussed the rarity of markets churning out 6-positive months of returns in a row. To wit:

Read More »

The Debt Ceiling Non-Crisis & Why Rates Will Fall.

21 days ago

Print Friendly
The financial media is rife with misinformation on the debt ceiling and the jump in interest rates. However, a review of history shows that not only is the “debt-ceiling” issue a non-crisis, but the recent rise in rates is likely an opportunity to buy bonds.

Let’s start with the media scare tactics over the debt ceiling:

If Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will run out of money. The U.S. will default on its debt.The markets and economy will crash.While there is a grain of truth behind these statements, they are largely false. However, for the media, a manufactured crisis should never be allowed to go to waste. To wit:

“As Washington teeters closer to a possible government shutdown at midnight Thursday, here’s why the status of the nation’s debt

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Is The Market “Melting-Up?”

24 days ago

Print Friendly
Is the “market melting-up?” Such was the question I received from my colleague at Cut The Crap Investing. It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a “no risk” market.

Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.

“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“ – Investopedia

Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market. As noted previously:

“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds

Read More »

Dow 40000 – A Huge Disappointment Of Promises

25 days ago

Print Friendly
Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the “Party Hats,” it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.

Dow Milestones

“Nothing says bull stock market like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossing another thousand-point barrier. The recent rise above 34K sparked a special interest. The 1,000-point move from 33,000 to 34,000 was the third fastest on record,’ and the Dow’s move was ‘its fourth thousand-point hurdle cleared this year alone.’ – John Tobey

If price acceleration in the market is a sign of investor optimism, this chart should undoubtedly support that view.

There were only

Read More »

Correction Is Over. Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool 09-24-21

26 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 09-24-21 issue of “‘Correction Is Over, Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool“

Correction Is OverFed Threads The Needle On Taper.3-Signs For The Next Bear MarketPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Correction Is Over As Bulls Jump Back Into The “Risk Pool.”

As noted last week, retail investors didn’t step in right away to buy the dip at the 50-dma. However, they did show

Read More »

Correction Is Over. Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool.

27 days ago

Print Friendly
In this 09-24-21 issue of “‘Correction Is Over, Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool“

Correction Is OverFed Threads The Needle On Taper.3-Signs For The Next Bear MarketPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Correction Is Over As Bulls Jump Back Into The “Risk Pool.”

As noted last week, retail investors didn’t step in right away to buy the dip at the 50-dma. However, they did show

Read More »

The Coming “Reversion To The Mean” Of Economic Growth

28 days ago

Print Friendly
From stimulus boom to income thud, the coming “reversion to the mean” of economic growth is happening faster than economists expected.

We previously noted that while many mainstream economists believed the current economic “boom” would persist, several factors suggested it wouldn’t.

The first problem is the math. As I previously discussed in “As Good As It Gets,“ the “second-derivative” of growth is now problematic. To wit:

“There is much at risk in the market as we head into the third quarter of 2021. For clarity, we need to review the “second-derivative” effect. ‘In calculus, the second derivative, or the second-order derivative, of a function f is the derivative of the derivative of f.” – Wikipedia’In English, the ‘second derivative’ measures how the rate of

Read More »

Expecting “Stimulus?” Household Credit Explodes Higher.

September 20, 2021

Print Friendly
In the second quarter, household credit exploded higher as stimulus payments ran dry. Was the surge a function of excess spending, inflation, or an expectation of more “stimmies” coming?

The chart below shows the total amount of household credit currently.

If you stare very hard, you can make out the slight dip in credit usage during the “pandemic-driven shutdown.” However, such is not the case despite the narrative households paid down a bulk of their debt.

However, that narrative is a function of the following chart.

While the chart suggests Americans are more solvent, as explained previously, it is an “illusion.”

An Explosion In Credit Usage

Not surprisingly, as three rounds of “stimulus payments” got spent, households returned to spending on credit.

Read More »

Investors Fail To “BTFD” As They Await Fed “Taper.” 09-17-21

September 18, 2021

Print Friendly
In this 09-17-21 issue of “‘Investors Fail To BTFD As They Await Fed Taper.“

Investors Fail To BTFDThe Slope Of HopeA Reason The Fed Can’t Taper…YetPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Starts A Correction Right On Cue

As noted last week:

“That correction started on Monday with the week ending in 5-straight down days which is the worse slide since February.However,

Read More »

Investors Fail To “BTFD” As They Await Fed “Taper.”

September 18, 2021

Print Friendly
In this 09-17-21 issue of “‘Investors Fail To BTFD As They Await Fed Taper.“

Investors Fail To BTFDThe Slope Of HopeA Reason The Fed Can’t Taper…YetPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Starts A Correction Right On Cue

As noted last week:

“That correction started on Monday with the week ending in 5-straight down days which is the worse slide since February.However,

Read More »

#MacroView: Deficit Deniers & 40-Years Of Economic Erosion

September 17, 2021

Print Friendly
After 40-years of economic erosion, there are still deficit deniers.

The belief that debt and deficits “don’t matter” primarily stems from the basis the economy hasn’t collapsed and become a historical equivalent of Weimer, Germany. However, the rather elementary view fails to distinguish that dropping a frog into boiling water or slowly bringing the water to a boil equates to the same outcome. That latter just takes longer to get there.

A recent article by Barry Ritholtz entitled “Time To Stop Believing The Deficit Bullshit” is an interesting read. It makes a logical argument as to why running massive deficits doesn’t seem to matter. (Such is the basis for Modern Monetary Theory)

“We are told (over and over, again and again) that if we allow the federal government

Read More »

David Robertson: The Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

September 16, 2021

Print Friendly
What is the “Inelastic Market Hypothesis?”

If you take a quick look at returns for the S&P 500 over the last few years, it is easy to be impressed with how lucrative stocks can be. Total returns above 31% in 2019, 18% in 2020, and 21% year-to-date (as of 8/31) can make a difference. Unfortunately, the levitation at the end of this summer hardly stands out in this context. Instead, it is just more of the same.

When stocks are rolling along this well, it’s easy just to let it happen. So why ask too many questions? While nobody wants to “jinx” the run, it behooves long-term investors to be at least aware of the risks. After all, a big run-up followed by a big run down on a roller coaster may be exciting, but retirement funds can be painful. A new theory about market

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Too Many Bears Looking For A Correction?

September 14, 2021

Print Friendly
Are there too many “bears” looking for a correction?

When it comes to financial markets, there is one truism as noted in Bob Farrell’s famous investment rules:

“When all experts agree, something else tends to happen.”

Such makes perfect sense given that the “market” is a reflection of the psychology of “buyers” and “sellers.” Such is why sentiment plays such an important role in market expectations.

As an example, a recent Deutsche Bank survey found that 58% of the 550 global market professionals surveyed expect a 5-10% correction by year-end.

Of those managers, only 14% saw the index higher than it is currently, in the next 3-months.

There are many good reasons for concern beyond just a very extended period without a meaningful correction. Currently,

Read More »

What’s Wrong With Gold? Absolutely, Nothing.

September 13, 2021

Print Friendly
Gold. What’s wrong with it? From spiking inflation, falling real interest rates, and massive money printing, it seems logical that gold, a touted inflation hedge, should be rising. Yet, so far this year, gold has done little.

So, what’s wrong with this precious metal? Absolutely, nothing.

Is Gold Really An Inflation Hedge

One of the primary arguments for owning precious metals, particularly physical gold, is its effective hedge for inflation. However, is that still the case today?

The chart below shows the non-inflation-adjusted price and key events throughout history.

The U.S. being on a “gold standard” is a crucial consideration of the argument of gold being an effective hedge against inflation.

“The gold standard is a monetary system where a

Read More »

Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings 09-10-21

September 11, 2021

Print Friendly
In this 09-10-21 issue of “‘Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings.“

Market Starts Correction Right On Cue.Investors Record Allocations & Rising WarningsBeige Book Highlights Fed’s Biggest ProblemPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Starts A Correction Right On Cue

As noted last week:

“However, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues

Read More »

Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings

September 11, 2021

Print Friendly
In this 09-10-21 issue of “‘Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings.“

Market Starts Correction Right On Cue.Investors Record Allocations & Rising WarningsBeige Book Highlights Fed’s Biggest ProblemPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy?

Whether it is complete financial, insurance, and estate planning, to a risk-managed portfolio management strategy to grow and protect your savings, whatever your needs are, we are here to help.

Schedule your “FREE” portfolio review today.

Market Starts A Correction Right On Cue

As noted last week:

“However, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues

Read More »