Thursday , April 9 2020
Home / Lance Roberts
Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts has sharpened that lens with 30 years in the investing world from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital. Lance Roberts’ perspective and common sense analysis is sought after by media outlets such as Fox 26 News in Houston, CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News along with numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters and the Washington Post. Roberts is the Editor of the X-Factor report and publishes the blog Daily X-change.

Articles by Lance Roberts

Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle

2 days ago

In a recent post, I discussed the “3-stages of a bear market.”  To wit:
“Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so.  But, let me remind you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter:
Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.

However, the “bear market” is only one-half of a vastly more important concept – the “Full Market Cycle.”
The Full Market Cycle

Read More »

Aaand It’s Gone…The Biggest Support For Asset Prices

3 days ago

Since the passage of “tax cuts,” in late 2017, the surge in corporate share buybacks has become a point of much debate. I previously wrote that stock buybacks were setting records over the past couple of years. Jeffery Marcus of TP Analytics, recently confirmed the same:
“U.S. firms have been the biggest incremental buyer of stocks in each of the past four years, with their net purchases exceeding $2 trillion – Federal Reserve data on fund flows compiled by Goldman Sachs showed.”
As John Authers previously noted:
“For much of the last decade, companies buying their own shares have accounted for all net purchases. The total amount of stock bought back by companies since the 2008 crisis even exceeds the Federal Reserve’s spending on buying bonds over the same period as part of quantitative

Read More »

Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risk (Full Report)

5 days ago

Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risks
MacroView: The 2020 Investment Summit
Financial Planning Corner: Anatomy Of A Bear
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager
Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha
Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week

NOTE: During these tumultuous times, we are unlocking our full newsletter to help you navigate the markets safely. Make sure you subscribe to RIAPRO.NET (Free 30-Day Trial) if you want to keep receiving the full report after the storm passes.
Major Technical Failures Confirm Bear Market Risk
In last week’s discussion, we stated the “bear market” was not yet complete. This was despite the “market rally,” which convinced the media the “bull market was back.”

While it was indeed a sharp “reflex

Read More »

#MacroView: THE 2020 – INVESTMENT SUMMIT

6 days ago

For the last couple of years, we have warned of an exogenous event which would cause a “cascade effect” through the markets and economy. To wit:
“While that laundry list of worries is long, none of them are going to be the ‘one’ which gets the market. It is the combination of these issues which provide the ‘fuel’ to amplify the impact of an unexpected, exogenous event, which ignites selling in the markets. 
Since it is ALWAYS and unexpected event which causes sharp declines in asset prices, this is why advisors typically tell their clients ‘since you can’t predict it, all you can do is just ride it out.’ 
This is not only lazy, but ultimately leads to the unnecessary destruction of capital and the investors time horizon.”
That exogenous, unexpected event, was the “coronavirus.”
Not

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 04-03-20

6 days ago

We know you get busy and don’t check our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything you might have missed.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

________________________________________________________________________________

[embedded content]
________________________________________________________________________________

RIA Advisors is proud to present the 2020

Read More »

Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality

7 days ago

“Every financial crisis, market upheaval, major correction, recession, etc. all came from one thing – an exogenous event that was not forecast or expected.
This is why bear markets are always vicious, brutal, devastating, and fast. It is the exogenous event, usually credit-related, which sucks the liquidity out of the market, causing prices to plunge. As prices fall, investors begin to panic-sell driving prices lower which forces more selling in the market until, ultimately, sellers are exhausted.
It is the same every time.”
Over the last several years, investors have insisted the markets were NOT in a bubble. We reminded them that everyone thought the same in 1999 and 2007.
Throughout history, financial bubbles have only been recognized in hindsight when their existence

Read More »

Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.

9 days ago

In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated:
“From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in.
As shown in the chart below, after a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance.
Such an advance will ‘lure’ investors back into the market, thinking the ‘bear market’ is over.”
Chart Updated Through Monday

Not surprisingly, as we noted in this weekend’s newsletter, the headlines from the mainstream media aligned with our expectations:

So, is the bear market over? 
Are the bulls now back in charge?
Honestly, no one knows for certain. However, there are

Read More »

Where “I Bought It For The Dividend” Went Wrong

10 days ago

[unable to retrieve full-text content]"I bought it for the dividend," is not an investment strategy, it is a rationalization for not having properly managed portfolio risk during declines. While the idea of buying dividend stocks is correct, there is a better way to do it over the long-run.

Read More »

Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules For Now (Full Report)

12 days ago

Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules
MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager
Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha
2020 Investment Summit – April 2nd.
The “2020 SOCIALLY DISTANT INVESTMENT SUMMIT” is coming on Thursday, April 2nd.
Click the link below to receive an email with a special “invitation only” link when the summit goes “live.” (Current newsletter subscribers are already registered.)

Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week

NOTE: During these tumultuous times, we are unlocking our full newsletter to help you navigate the markets safely. Make sure you subscribe to RIAPRO.NET (Free 30-Day Trial) if you want to keep receiving the full report after the storm passes.
Bull Market? No, The Bear Still

Read More »

#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken

12 days ago

“The Federal Reserve is poised to spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy once a massive aid package to fight the coronavirus and its aftershocks is signed into law. These actions are unprecedented, going beyond anything it did during the 2008 financial crisis in a sign of the extraordinary challenge facing the nation.” – Bloomberg
Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary tool within their arsenal to achieve that goal. The Fed is no longer just a “last resort” for the financial institutions, but now are the lender for the broader economy.
There is just one problem.
The Fed continues to try and stave off an event that is a necessary part of the economic cycle, a debt

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-27-20

13 days ago

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

Read More »

Seth Levine: COVID-19 Is Not The Last War

13 days ago

These are truly remarkable times in the investment markets. The speed, intensity, and ubiquity of this selloff brings just one word to mind: violence. It would be remarkable if it wasn’t so destructive. Sadly, the reactions from our politicians and the public were predictable. The Federal Reserve (Fed) faithfully and forcefully responded. Despite its unprecedented actions, it seems like they’re “fighting the last war.”
Caveat Emptor
My intention here is to discuss some observations from the course of my career as an investor and try to relate them to the current market. I won’t provide charts or data; I’m just spit-balling here. My goal is twofold: 1) to better organize my own thoughts, and; 2) foster constructive discussions as we all try to navigate these turbulent markets. I realize

Read More »

Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third

14 days ago

Over the last couple of years, we have often discussed the impact of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections, which was causing distortions in financial markets, mal-investment, and the expansion of the “wealth gap.” 
Our concerns were readily dismissed as bearish as asset prices were rising. The excuse:

“Don’t fight the Fed”

However, after years of zero interest rates, never-ending support of accommodative monetary policy, and a lack of regulatory oversight, the consequences of excess have come home to roost. 
This is not an “I Told You So,” but rather the realization of the inevitable outcome to which investors turned a blind-eye too in the quest for “easy money” in the stock market. 
It’s a reminder of the consequences of “greed.” 

The Liquidity Trap
We previously

Read More »

Robertson: When “Stuff” Gets Real

14 days ago

We all can be tempted to follow the path of least resistance and in a competitive world there are always incentives to get the most bang for the buck. Often this means taking shortcuts to gain some advantage. In a forgiving world, the penalties for such transgressions tend to be small but the rewards can be significant. When conditions are extremely forgiving, shortcuts can become so pervasive that failing to take them can be a competitive disadvantage.
In a less forgiving world, however, the deal gets completely flipped around and penalties can be significant for those who take shortcuts. This will be important for investors to keep in mind as rapidly weakening economic fundamentals and increasing stress in financial markets make for far less forgiving conditions. When things get real,

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.

16 days ago

Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019.
“It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.)
‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit—’CLOs’ (collateralized loan obligations) instead of ‘CDOs’ (collateralized debt obligations), for example—but once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards. Likewise, much of the borrowing is financed opaquely, outside the banking system. Many are asking whether these developments

Read More »

Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls (Full Report)

18 days ago

Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls
MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week

NOTE: During these tumultuous times, we are unlocking our full newsletter to help you navigate the markets safely. Make sure you subscribe to RIAPRO.NET (Free 30-Day Trial) if you want to keep receiving the full report after the storm passes.
Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls

“If you own 10% equities, as we do, and the market falls 100%, you will lose 10%. That said, you have 90 cents on the dollar to buy equities for free.” – Michael Lebowitz

Let me explain his comment.
Last week, we wrote a piece titled: Risk

Read More »

#MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?

19 days ago

“Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday downplayed the likelihood of an economic recession as the economy takes a beating from the coronavirus outbreak.

“I just think, in general, I would be very careful to put too much emphasis on what bond rates are doing, what interest rates are doing. Or even in the short, short run, the stock market. I think you have a lot of mood swings here and I don’t think it reflects the fundamentals.” – Larry Kudlow via CNBC

I understand they have to pander to the administration, but this is a stretch to say the least. 
Let’s dig into some facts to determine our real risks.
Even before COVID-19 had infected the planet, economic data, and inflationary pressures were already weakening. This already suggested the decade long economic expansion was

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-20-20

19 days ago

We know you get busy and don’t check our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything you might have missed.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

________________________________________________________________________________

[embedded content]
________________________________________________________________________________

Michael Lebowitz, CFA and I dig into the

Read More »

Michael Markowski: Dip Buyers, Beware Of Sensational Headlines

19 days ago

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk.Read more at BullsNBears.com

Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile.  It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008.  Its human nature to want to buy at fire sale prices.     

March 13, 2020

Read More »

Shedlock: Fed Trying To Save The Bond Market As Unemployment Explodes

19 days ago

Bond market volatility remains a sight to behold, even at the low end of the curve.

Bond Market Dislocations Remain

The yield on a 3-month T-Bill fell to 1.3 basis points then surged to 16.8 basis points in a matter of hours. The yield then quickly crashed to 3 basis points and now sits at 5.1 basis points.

The Fed is struggling even with the low end of the Treasury curve.

$IRX 3-Month Yield

Stockcharts shows the 3-month yield ($IRX) dipping below zero but Investing.Com does not show the yield went below zero.

Regardless, these swings are not normal.

Cash Crunch

Bloomberg reports All the Signs a Cash Crunch Is Gripping Markets and the Economy

In a crisis, it is said, all correlations go to one. Threats get so overwhelming that everything reacts in unison. And

Read More »

Margin Call: You Were Warned Of The Risk

21 days ago

I have been slammed with emails over the last couple of days asking the following questions:
“What just happened to my bonds?”

“What happened to my gold position, shouldn’t it be going up?”

“Why are all my stocks being flushed at the same time?”

As noted by Zerohedge:
“Stocks down, Bonds down, credit down, gold down, oil down, copper down, crypto down, global systemically important banks down, and liquidity down…
Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio… ever…”

This Is What A “Margin Call,” Looks Like.
In December 2018, we warned of the risk. At that time, the market was dropping sharply, and Mark Hulbert wrote an article dismissing the risk of margin debt. To wit:
“Plunging margin debt may not doom the bull market after all, reports to the contrary

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much

23 days ago

For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk” which is most important.
Beginning in mid-January, we began taking profits out of our portfolios and reducing risk. To wit:
“On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.”
Importantly, we did not “sell everything” and go to cash.
Since then, we took profits and rebalanced risk again in late January and early February as well.
Our clients, their families, their financial and emotional “well being,” rest in our hands. We take that responsibility very seriously, and work closely with our

Read More »

Profits & Earnings Suggest The Bear Market Isn’t Over.

24 days ago

Is the bear market over yet?
This is the question that everyone wants to know. Why? So they can “buy the bottom.” 
For that reason alone, I would suggest the current “bear market” is not over yet. Historically speaking, at the bottom of bear market cycles, as we saw in 1932, 1974, 2002, and 2008, there are few individuals willing to put capital at risk.
Given the large number of people on social media clamoring to jump back in the market given the rally this past Friday, it suggests that “optimism,” and “recency bias,” are still far too prevalent in the market.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow.
“Rule #8 states:
Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out

Read More »

Fox26 Interview: The Economic Impact Of COVID-19

25 days ago

On Friday morning, I visiting with my friends at Fox26 in Houston to discuss the economic, market, and investing impact of COVID-19.

“Will it get worse before it gets better?
Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist with RIA Advisors, explains how the COVID-19 coronavirus is impacting our economy.”

Read More »

Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The “Revenant”

26 days ago

Market Crash: Is It Over, Or Is It The Revenant?
MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus
Financial Planning Corner: Tips For A Volatile Market
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager

Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha

Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week

Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is The “Revenant?”
If you haven’t seen the movie “The Revenant” with Leonardo DiCaprio, it is a 2015 American survival drama describing frontiersman Hugh Glass’s experiences in 1823. Early in the movie, Hugh, an expert hunter, and tracker, is mauled by a grizzly bear. (Warning: the scene is very graphic)
[embedded content]
In the scene, the attack comes in three distinct waves.
The bear attacks, and brutally mauls Hugh, who plays dead to survive. The

Read More »

#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

27 days ago

Last week, we discussed in Fed’s ‘Emergency Rate Cut’ Reveals Recession Risks” that while current economic data may not suggest a possibility of a recession was imminent, other “off the run” data didn’t agree.
“We are likely experiencing more than just a ‘soft patch’ currently despite the mainstream analysts’ rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, even before the impact of COVID-19, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term was already telling us just that.”
The plunge in both 5- and 10-year “breakeven inflation rates,” are currently suggesting that economic growth over the next couple of quarters will drop markedly. The last time there was such a sharp drop in inflation expectations at the beginning of the “financial

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-13-20

27 days ago

We know you get busy and don’t check our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything you might have missed.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

________________________________________________________________________________

[embedded content]
________________________________________________________________________________

Danny Ratliff, CFP and Lance Roberts, CIO

Read More »

Special Report: Panic Sets In As “Everything Must Go”

28 days ago

Note: All charts now updated for this mornings open.

The following is a report we generate regularly for our RIAPRO Subscribers. You can try our service RISK-FREE for 30-Days.

Headlines from the past four-days:

Dow sinks 2,000 points in worst day since 2008, S&P 500 drops more than 7%

Dow rallies more than 1,100 points in a wild session, halves losses from Monday’s sell-off

Dow drops 1,400 points and tumbles into a bear market, down 20% from last month’s record close

Stocks extend losses following 15-minute ‘circuit breaker’ halt, S&P 500 drops 8%

It has, been a heck of a couple of weeks for the market with daily point swings running 1000, or more, points in either direction.

However, given Tuesday’s huge rally, it seemed as if the market’s recent rout might be

Read More »

Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

March 10, 2020

“Tops are a process, and bottoms are an event”
Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues that plagued the underbelly of the financial markets.
The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults.
Earnings estimates for 2019 fell sharply, and 2020 estimates are now on the decline.
Stock market targets for 2020 are still too high, along with 2021.
Rising geopolitical tensions between Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, etc. 
The effect of the tax cut legislation has disappeared as year-over-year comparisons are reverting back to normalized growth rates.
Economic growth is slowing.
Chinese economic data has weakened further.
The impact of the “coronavirus,” and the shutdown of the global supply chain, will impact exports (which make up 40-50% of

Read More »