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Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts has sharpened that lens with 30 years in the investing world from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital. Lance Roberts’ perspective and common sense analysis is sought after by media outlets such as Fox 26 News in Houston, CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News along with numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters and the Washington Post. Roberts is the Editor of the X-Factor report and publishes the blog Daily X-change.

Articles by Lance Roberts

There Is No Way This Bull Market Doesn’t End Very Badly

21 hours ago

Print FriendlyThere is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.”
An excellent example of investor exuberance came recently in “Investors Go All In:”
“More importantly, over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.”

If that chart alone doesn’t get your “Spidey senses” tingling, I am not sure what will. However, I have a few more charts to share with you.

Technical Deviations
In the short term, fundamentals don’t matter. Such is because over a few days, weeks, or even months, what drives prices higher or lower is the psychology of investors. As such, we can look at technical deviations to determine how exuberant

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David Robertson: The Inflation Or Disinflation Debate Continues

2 days ago

Print FriendlyInflation or Disinflation?
Several positive developments over the last several months have dramatically improved the near-term outlook for the economy. Accelerating vaccine rollouts, increasing business activity, continued monetary policy, and substantial new doses of fiscal spending contribute to the potential for higher economic output. All these factors, however, are also increasing concerns about inflation, and rightly so.
The good news is there is plenty of commentaries that provide valuable updates and insights for investors to monitor the situation. The less good news is there is no easy answer to the debate between inflation and deflation/disinflation. A significant challenge, then, is figuring out how to incorporate an uncertain path for inflation into an investment

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Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts 04-16-21

3 days ago

For now, we remain allocated to the market but are watching our indicators closely for a signal to start reducing exposure. When that time comes, in the next few days or next couple of weeks, we will fall back on our process. 
“As discussed previously, ‘risk happens fast.’
It is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off. Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy. Importantly, keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.
Trim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)
Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working. If they don’t rally with the market during this recent rally,  they will decline more when the market sells off again.
Move Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.
Review Your Portfolio Allocation

Read More »

#MacroView: Dimon’s Detached View Of Economic Realities

4 days ago

Print FriendlyIn December of 2019, I wrote about Dimon’s delusional view of economic realities. To wit:
“The consumer, which is 70% of the U.S. economy, is quite strong. Confidence is very high. Their balance sheets are in great shape. And you see that the strength of the American consumer is driving the American economy and the global economy. And while business slowed down, my current view is that, no, it just was a slowdown, not a petering out.” – Jamie Dimon
That’s what the head of JP Morgan Chase told viewers in his “60-Minutes” interview.
Then the 2020 recession set in, consumption collapsed, and the Government passed massive stimulus bills to support the 50-million unemployed. 
Such isn’t the first time that I have discussed Dimon’s distorted views. Just as we discussed then, even

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 4-16-21

4 days ago

Print Friendly
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 4-16-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the

Read More »

#Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Optimism Explodes

7 days ago

There are few, if any, Wall Street analysts expecting a recession currently, and many are confident of a forthcoming economic growth cycle. Yet, at this time, there are few catalysts supportive of such a resurgence.
Economic growth outside of China remains weak
Employment growth is going to slow.
There is no massive disaster currently to spur a surge in government spending and reconstruction.
There isn’t another stimulus package like tax cuts to fuel a boost in corporate earnings.
With the deficit already pushing $1 Trillion, there will only be an incremental boost from additional deficit spending this year. 
Unfortunately, it is also just a function of time until a recession occurs.
Wall Street is notorious for missing significant turning points in markets and leaving investors

Read More »

March Jobs Report – Millions Missing From The Roles

8 days ago

Print FriendlyRecently, the March jobs report showed a whopping 916,000 new jobs. Interestingly, there were some anomalies in the data and millions missing from the official count.
As shown, there has been a substantial reduction in the unemployment rate back to 6%. Historically, an unemployment rate of 5% was considered “full employment.” However, for the Federal Reserve to have “cover” to continue current monetary interventions, a new standard has been set at the previous lows of 3.8%.

The reality is there is a multitude of problems with how the entire series is “guessed at.” As noted previously by Morningside Hill:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) systemically overstates the number of jobs created, especially during the last economic cycle.
The BLS has failed to account for the

Read More »

Market Surges Back To Overbought As Investors Go “All In” 04-10-21

10 days ago

The MacroView

If you need help or have questions, we are always glad to help. Just email me.
See You Next Week
By Lance Roberts, CIO
Market & Sector Analysis
Analysis & Stock Screens Exclusively For RIAPro Members

Discover All You Are Missing At RIAPRO.NET
This is what our RIAPRO.NET subscribers are reading right now! Risk-Free For 30-Day Trial.
Sector & Market Analysis
Technical Gauge
Fear/Greed Positioning Gauge
Sector Rotation Analysis (Risk/Reward Ranges)
Stock Screens (Growth, Value, Technical)
Client Portfolio Updates
Live 401k Plan Manager

THE REAL 401k PLAN MANAGER
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors

If you need help after reading the alert, do not hesitate to contact me.

Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the

Read More »

#MacroView: Debt Fueled Spending Won’t Create Growth

11 days ago

Print FriendlyMore debt equals less growth. In October, I discussed the “2nd Derivative Effect” and the ongoing cost of the stimulus. With the passage of the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan,” will the math of debt to growth change?
Now, even Deutsche Bank credit strategist, Stuart Sparks, got the memo.

“History teaches us that although investments in productive capacity can in principle raise potential growth and r* in such a way that the debt incurred to finance fiscal stimulus is paid down over time (r-g

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 4-9-21

11 days ago

Print Friendly
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 4-9-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the

Read More »

#Technically Speaking: Despite Correction, Investors Are Exuberant

14 days ago

Print FriendlyDespite the recent correction in the markets, leading to a hedge fund imploding, investors remain exuberant. The hopes for more stimulus, government spending, and Fed liquidity displace fears of a correction.
Before we get into the technical review of the markets, I thought Jason Zweig summed up the current environment well.
“This isn’t a bull market or a bear market. It’s a know-nothing market.
Bragging rights used to go to those investors who worked the hardest at learning the most. Now the glory often goes to those who know the least and don’t even care.
‘I don’t know what the f— I’m doing,’ a young man said in a TikTok video in January. ‘I just know I’m making money.’ He added that he’d been trading stocks for only three days, but ‘just like that, made $300 for the

Read More »

Survey Of Retail Investors Shows The Blind Lead The Blind.

15 days ago

Print FriendlyIn retail investing, do the “blind lead the blind?” Such was a question I asked recently about young investors who are “Long Confidence And Short Experience.” However, a recent survey by MagnifyMoney dug much deeper into the subject.
Our previous article’s gist is that throughout history, markets have a way of separating investors from their money. Such is the reason every great investor in history has one rule in common: “Don’t lose money.” The reason, of course, is that if you lose your capital, you are “out of the game.”
As I noted, the market’s current speculative behavior is not uncommon throughout history.
“Bubbles are characterized by extreme predictions, tend to dominate conversations and induce people to leave their jobs. The warnings of bubble skeptics get

Read More »

Increasing Equity Exposure As Money Flows Turn Positive 04-02-21

18 days ago

The MacroView

If you need help or have questions, we are always glad to help. Just email me.
See You Next Week
By Lance Roberts, CIO
Market & Sector Analysis
Analysis & Stock Screens Exclusively For RIAPro Members

Discover All You Are Missing At RIAPRO.NET
This is what our RIAPRO.NET subscribers are reading right now! Risk-Free For 30-Day Trial.
Sector & Market Analysis
Technical Gauge
Fear/Greed Positioning Gauge
Sector Rotation Analysis (Risk/Reward Ranges)
Stock Screens (Growth, Value, Technical)
Client Portfolio Updates
Live 401k Plan Manager

THE REAL 401k PLAN MANAGER
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors

If you need help after reading the alert, do not hesitate to contact me.

Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 4-2-21

18 days ago

Print Friendly
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 4-2-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the

Read More »

#Technically Speaking: Bulls Run As Liquidity Floods Market

21 days ago

Print FriendlyAs liquidity floods the market, the bulls continue to run the market. However, was the recent consolidation enough to reset market exuberance?
Over the last few weeks, I discussed the weekly “sell signals.” Such suggested upside would be somewhat limited for markets near-term. However, that flood of liquidity also limited the downside. Such has indeed been the case, as volatile markets made little headway since February, but dips continue to get bought.

With “stimmy” checks hitting bank accounts, “retail trading” stocks should get a boost as former gamblers and “pandemic lock-ins” return to Robinhood.
Furthermore, the surge in liquidity from the CARES Act last March is now working its way back into the economy as well. Those Treasury balances are getting drawn down to fund

Read More »

Biden’s Stimulus Will Cut Poverty By 40% – For One Year.

22 days ago

Print FriendlyPresident Biden’s stimulus bill “will cut the number of children in poverty by 40%,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
“The current Child Tax Credit and EITC together lift more children above the poverty line, 5.5 million, than any other economic support program. This level of poverty reduction was achieved through multiple expansions of the EITC and Child Tax Credit since their respective enactments in 1975 and 1997. The House’s proposal — with one significant change to the Child Tax Credit — would lift another 4.1 million children above the poverty line, cutting the remaining number of children in poverty by more than 40 percent.” – CBPP
The NY Times also jumped on Biden’s stimulus package to tout how “transformative” Biden will be to the U.S.

Read More »

Market Rallies On Powell’s “Easy Money” Promise 03-27-21

24 days ago

The MacroView
 
If you need help or have questions, we are always glad to help. Just email me.
See You Next Week
By Lance Roberts, CIO
Market & Sector Analysis
Analysis & Stock Screens Exclusively For RIAPro Members

Discover All You Are Missing At RIAPRO.NET
This is what our RIAPRO.NET subscribers are reading right now! Risk-Free For 30-Day Trial.
Sector & Market Analysis
Technical Gauge
Fear/Greed Positioning Gauge
Sector Rotation Analysis (Risk/Reward Ranges)
Stock Screens (Growth, Value, Technical)
Client Portfolio Updates
Live 401k Plan Manager

THE REAL 401k PLAN MANAGER
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors

If you need help after reading the alert, do not hesitate to contact me.

Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the

Read More »

#MacroView: Could A “Transaction Tax” Be A Good Thing?

25 days ago

Print FriendlyCould a “transaction tax” be a good thing?
I recently discussed why “Free, Isn’t Really Free” regarding the retail investor. While “free trades” have certainly reduced the transaction costs, the selling of data to the highest bidder has likely cost investors more than they saved. To wit:
“As is clear from the billions paid for order flow and the billions made from executing those orders, there is no such thing as ‘free trading.’ Thus, the claim of ‘commission free trading’ is often no more than a rhetorical ruse to attract new investors and distract from the billions of dollars in PFOF and other hidden costs that ultimately come out of retail investors’ pockets. It’s pretty clear that these intermediaries are often merely transferring the investors’ visible upfront

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 3-26-21

25 days ago

Print Friendly
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 3-26-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the

Read More »

#Technically Speaking: Is The End Of The Value Trade Near?

28 days ago

Print FriendlyThe end of the value trade may be near as investors push prices beyond economic growth expectations.
Interestingly, it was just last year that I wrote: “The Rotation To Value Is Inevitable.” The critical point of that article was this:
“The market’s surge higher since the financial crisis, which has been driven by massive fiscal and monetary policies. It has been nothing short of extraordinary. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at the greatest deviation from its long-term exponential growth trend in history.”

The unparalleled monetary policy use to push markets higher, massive fiscal spending designed to keep economic growth positive, and corporations shunning future growth for “share repurchases” remains the common thread.
As Michael Lebowitz, CFA, previously noted:
“As a

Read More »

Powell Can’t Raise Rates As Economy Remains On Life-Support 03-20-21

March 20, 2021

The market continued to fluctuate this past week, as recent highs remain a challenge to hold onto. While over the last two weeks, we repeated steps to rebalance portfolio risk, portfolios continued to remain under pressure on the “growth” side.
We continued to take profits earlier this week by reducing our energy and financial names a bit to take profits. Such increased our overweight cash position slightly. Even though we are very short in the duration of our bond holdings, the sharp rise in yields this week pressured that side of the portfolio.
As noted in our market update, we are more than 2/3rds of the way through the current rally cycle, which increases downside risk as we head into April. The rise in yields, and ultimately the dollar, remains the key to the current market cycle.

Read More »

#MacroView: Is Hyperinflation Really A Threat?

March 19, 2021

Is hyperinflation a threat? While I was on vacation this past week, I got into a discussion on the issue.

This is how capitalism will end in the US
Same way it ended in Germany. pic.twitter.com/m3imOQJGDz
— HousePriceMania (@HousePriceMania) March 18, 2021

While the discussion ebbed between a broken financial system and capitalism’s failure, the gist was hyperinflation was coming. The measure of money in the system, known as M2, is skyrocketing, which certainly supports his concern. Now, with the Biden administration adding another $1.9 trillion into the economy, those concerns have risen.

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Larry Summers stated:
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind not seen in

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 3-19-21

March 19, 2021

What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 3-19-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the portfolio

Read More »

#Technically Speaking: Another Way To Look At Long-Term Bubble Cycles

March 16, 2021

Yes. We are in a stock market bubble. But what if conventional methods of examining market cycles miss a crucial point? While we often talk about parts of cycles (bull or bear), exploring the full-market cycle may provide another way to look at long-term bubble cycles.
The Speculative Cycle
Charles Kindleberger suggested that speculative manias typically commence with a “displacement,” which excites speculative interest. The displacement may come from either an entirely new investment object (IPO) or increased profitability of established investments.
The speculation gets reinforced by a “positive feedback” loop from rising prices. Such ultimately induces “inexperienced investors” to enter the market. As the positive feedback loop continues and the “euphoria” increases, retail investors

Read More »

Payment For Order Flow & The Fleecing Of The Retail Investor

March 15, 2021

The fleecing of retail investors continues as “payment for order flow” expands.
Payment for order flow (PFOF) is not new. Previously, in a less connected world of instantaneous data flows, PFOF was minimal and non-invasive. Today, with high-frequency trading, dark pools, and algorithms running amok, retail traders are fodder for Wall Street profits.
Some Background
In financial markets, PFOF refers to compensation a broker receives third parties to influence how the broker routes client orders for fulfillment.
Read that again.
For many years, paying for order flows allowed firms to centralize customers’ orders for another firm to execute. Such allowed smaller firms to use economies of scale of larger firms. By allowing small firms to combine orders with larger firms, it provided better

Read More »

Bulls “Rush In” With More Stimulus On The Way 03-12-21

March 13, 2021

Last week we concluded our missive stating:
“As discussed previously, ‘risk happens fast.’
It is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off. Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy. Importantly, keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.
Trim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)
Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working. If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.
Move Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.
Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and

Read More »

#MacroView: Yellen’s “Go Big” MMT Plan May Disappoint

March 12, 2021

Yellen’s “Go Big” MMT plan was fulfilled this week as the Government passed the mammoth $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.” While she recently stated that “Right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big,” there is mounting evidence such actions may disappoint.
If you haven’t heard about Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT” for short, by now, you will soon. MMT is gaining traction by economists and politicians from both sides of the aisle as the economic prescription, even panacea, to cure our economic ills. Regardless of your view, MMT will have large effects on economic growth and prosperity.
“Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic theory that contends that a country that operates with a sovereign currency has a degree of freedom in

Read More »

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 3-12-21

March 12, 2021

What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 3-12-21

It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If you haven’t already, opt-in to get our newsletter and technical updates.

Here is this week’s rundown of what you missed.

RIA Advisors Can Now Manage Your 401k Plan

Too many choices? Unsure of what funds to select? Need a strategy to protect your retirement plan from a market downturn? 

RIA Advisors now has the capability to manage your 401k plan for you. It’s quick, simple, and transparent. In just a few minutes we can get you in the “right lane” for retirement.

What You Missed This Week In Blogs

Each week, RIA publishes the research and thoughts behind the portfolio

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground

March 9, 2021

Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.
The big question for investors at the moment is whether the 11-year old bull market is ending or is this just a “pause that refreshes?” 
While the optimistic “hope” is that this is just a pause within a continuing “bull market” advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer “right” is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.
The easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton

Euphoria Has Been Evident
There is little argument that “euphoria” has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most

Read More »