Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.1, up slightly from 131.0 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.0, up 0.6 from the previous week’s -2.6, and well off its interim low of -4.7 in mid-January.
"Key Points from Interview on Cyclical Outlook"
ECRI’s latest feature commentary published earlier this week discusses key points on the current cyclical outlook. These include the fact that job growth remains weak despite the latest positive jobs reports, the growth rate cycle is continuing to slow with no signs of change, and the Fed stated that short term interest rates are likely to remain low given current trend growth, and that they are beginning to agree with ECRI’s view.
Read the article here.
The ECRI Indicator Year-over-Year
Below is a chart of ECRI’s smoothed year-over-year percent change since 2000 of their weekly leading index. The latest level is below where it was at the start of the last recession.
Appendix: A Closer Look at the ECRI Index
The first chart below shows the history of the Weekly Leading Index and highlights its current level.
For a better understanding of the relationship of the WLI level to recessions, the next chart shows the data series in terms of the percent off the previous peak.Read More »