As noted yesterday, what’s typically behind these hopes about “green shoots” is a central bank, more often than not more than one central bank. In 2019, the Fed’s pause isn’t the only supposed dovish turn. The ECB is back at it, having canceled its rate liftoff. And the PBOC is doing things that nobody ever cares that much to truly understand.
Maybe it takes time for all that to work its way into the economic mix. Economists feel monetary policies come with a lag, which is why central bankers (who are all Economists) always have to look ahead. If only they were better at doing so.
Then again, perhaps monetary policy isn’t very accommodative no matter what the setting, or change in setting. Dovishness makes a nice news story, plays really well on CNBC, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it