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Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeffrey P. Snider

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

Articles by Jeffrey P. Snider

Purchasing Managers Indigestion

20 hours ago

There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.The Markit manufacturing index was revised lower than the flash estimate, down to just 50.9 last month. The services stat was given an additional 0.4 points to finish the month right at 50 (the composite therefore 50.3).The way the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) versions are being reported, however, these other must be describing an entirely different set of circumstances. In the manufacturing sector, this

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Buckets and Tookits, Empty Each

23 hours ago

It’s incredible, in a way, because right from the start he’s got everything on his side. There are the media write-ups which all say the exact same thing, calling this an exact science being practiced by the wisest, most considerate stewards. The legend we’ve been raised with. Lore and scholarship (I repeat myself). Most of all, everyone. When everyone says it’s a very good thing that Jay Powell’s definitely a reckless money printer, our brains aren’t wired to readily believe everyone could be so wrong on both counts (that he is and that it’s good he is). This, of course, explains a whole lot of the darker side of human history.What monetary policy consists of in this post-GFC2 environment is theoretically very simple – to use the great tools at the Fed’s disposal to ward off further

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 20, Part 2: The Dollar Pitch They Can’t Meet

24 hours ago

———-WHERE———-
AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
 
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
 
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
 
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
 
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
 
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
 
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
 
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
 
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
 
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
 
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
 
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
 
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
 
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 
 

———-WHO———-
 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
 
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
 
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, hidden in

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What’s In The Same Number? China’s Part In The (euro)Dollar Story

2 days ago

There’s one part of the dollar story I’ve not yet touched on recently. We’ve already heard, too much, about how the Fed’s killing the dollar, or at least is aiming to with all its immense money printing fire power. While it’s the euro which has demanded so much from DXY that it almost seems plausible (to a few) this time, what’s the real big one still lurking out there have to say about all this?CNY.According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the balance of foreign assets reported on its balance sheet for the month of June 2020 was RMB 21,833.26 billion. At the end of the prior month, May, the balance was, get this, RMB 21,833.33 billion.Rampaging global pandemic, dollar crashing, dollar smashing, global recession questions, massive, complex economic forces to go along with huge

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

3 days ago

Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.These others when faced with irrefutable evidence of their guilt opine endlessly, obliquely about how “it’s complicated.”See, though, it’s actually not.We’ve been led to believe that the utterly simple is too dense and esoteric for our limited intelligence to handle. Better, then, to leave it to our betters. If they say they’ve done the job, then we must take them at their word. Only they would know for sure, and we can be assured of it because they say so.I’ll show you what I mean:

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 20, Part 1: The Dollar Pitch They Can’t Hit

3 days ago

———-WHERE———-
 
AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
 
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
 
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
 
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
 
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
 
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
 
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
 
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
 
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
 
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
 
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
 
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
 
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
 
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 
 
———-WHO———-
 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
 
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
 
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, hidden in right

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Those Three Weeks of Hysteria

6 days ago

Is three weeks a new record? That’s about how long Jay Powell’s performance bought him across most major markets. It was May 17, a Sunday night, when he appeared on 60 Minutes and, pardon me again, lied his ass off. One right after another, starting with the most obvious falsehood that his gang at the Federal Reserve “saw it coming.” It’s hard to square that claim with one bungled measure after another, the central bank’s full “rescue” operation nowhere near what it was in early March by late March. If Powell saw it coming, then why didn’t they have everything ready to go in late February? Why not January? The FOMC still had its upper bound fed funds target set at 175 bps as late as March 2.The Fed Chairman can’t have you remember it that way because, quite simply, risks abound. He needs

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Momentum Lost? Private Income Corroborates Possibility Presented By Claims

6 days ago

Entering 2020, before overreactions to COVID and the shutdown they brought, private income derived from all sources had slowed to the lowest rate since 2010 (not counting 2013, that year skewed by tax changes which were implemented finishing up 2012). According to the latest annual revisions for it, last year, 2019, was a bit more recessionary than previously thought especially in the middle and toward the end at least where private income was concerned.
And since income’s the whole economic concern, the real big one, it points to just how much of a mistake it could turn out to have been overreacting to the one thing because of grossly underreacting to last year’s serious weakness. Though we’ll never know, 2019’s yield curve signal for a recession may not have been just a “scare.” (see

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 19, Part 3: Gold, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh Yes

6 days ago

———-WHERE———-
AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 
———-WHO———-
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren.  Artwork by David

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It Was Bad. The End. (not quite)

7 days ago

If that wasn’t the most anticlimactic worst economic quarter in history. The numbers were just as bad as people were expecting – which is the point. It’s not like this economic collapse snuck up on anyone, nor did its scale and depth. We’ve all known from the very beginning what the deal was going to be. Headline real GDP fell by a just about a third, -32.9% (seasonally-adjusted annual rate) and pretty much right on the nose of the most recent analyst estimates. In more appropriately compounded terms, the decline was just shy of 40%. Big whoop. The question on everyone’s mind, the only one that truly matters, is what comes next. That’s been the whole thing from the very beginning. For whatever reasons, right or wrong, they turned the economy off. Can it be turned right back on

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 19, Part 2: Gold, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh Crap

8 days ago

———-WHERE———-
AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 
———-WHO———-
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren.  Artwork by David

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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

8 days ago

Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market. This isn’t quite what people were thinking when they euphorically celebrated that number being published.
Though the data is one month behind the sentiment estimates from IHS Markit shown above (and those are for the composite index, which takes into account service sector firms as well as any in manufacturing), the Census Bureau today gives us what is in all likelihood a big part of the answer for why only half the “V.” The advance survey for wholesale and retail

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OMG The Dollar!!!

8 days ago

The way you hear it nowadays, the dollar just can’t catch a break. If it’s not a load of “V’s” indicated by some obscure data point (like the otherworldly spike in US home ownership levels), then it is Jay Powell who is clearly gunning for the US currency. He can’t kill it fast enough, having had more than enough of King Dollar. And you obviously never, ever fight the Fed.While all of that is hideously untrue, of course, I suppose it still comes out as a small measure of progress. You only have to go back in time a couple of years, early 2018, when conventional wisdom said a rising dollar was a good thing. Strong dollars. No more of that except in the smallest pockets of this ongoing monetary ignorance.When a top central bank official promises that he’ll have to continue to do a lot, a

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The Fastball Behind Strike 3

9 days ago

For a brief few weeks, reopening euphoria gripped the bond market. Well, not the bond market exactly, it was limited to the commentary surrounding a minor back up in nominal yields. Really, not much. This culminated in the May 2020 payroll report which was released on June 5. That was the one which “surprised” everyone because, apparently, nobody pays attention to what’s factually going on.

But, again, why wasn’t this expected? All this payroll report confirms is what we already knew – the economy is being reopened. Quite naturally it will lead to millions of Americans heading back to work. You deprive tens of millions of the opportunity to leave their house and attend to their jobs, once allowed they’re going to flood back in.

And that represented the apex of the 5s30s inflation

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Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations

9 days ago

When people accuse the Federal Reserve of anything when it comes to inflation, they say the central bank is cooking the books to hide it. Back in 2000, for example, monetary observers were aflutter as policymakers shifted away from the CPI and to the PCE Deflator as their ultimate standard for broad consumer price behavior. The bastards, the latter widely known for its much slower pace than the former. In late 2005, one of Alan Greenspan’s final acts as Chairman was to announce he was getting rid of M3. Once more, critical observers charged him and the rest of his central bankers with covering up the source of the inflation they were now hiding out in the open under the other statistic. The truth has been, however, very different. While there are endless arguments to be made about the

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Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up

10 days ago

On December 3, 2015, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, supposedly disappointed markets especially those trading European equities. Losses were large because Mario Draghi’s gang of policymakers merely extended its first QE rather than accelerating the pace of purchases. Investors, such as they were, had been told to expect more than that. To make matters worse, according to the mainstream narrative, the central bank also chose to take it easy on the banking sector. The money rate floor, the ECB’s deposit rate, was reduced but only by 10 bps, making NIRP only a little more NIRP-y at -30 bps. It had been hoped officials would take a more “accommodative” stance with “money printing” first and then being more aggressive in punishing the banking sector until it did more lending with said

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 19, Part 1: Gold, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh My

10 days ago

———-WHERE———-
AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 

 
———-WHO———-
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren.  Artwork by David

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US Stall? Only Half The Imagined “V” May Indicate One, Too

13 days ago

These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems to think it does. For July, the headline manufacturing index came in at 51.3, up from 49.8 in June. The service index was still less than 50, just 49.6, putting the composite number at 50 exactly. After an enormous downside, how would a “V” sort of rebound appear in PMI terms? To borrow an ill-served phrase used by the Fed, the PMI would be symmetric. A rebound shows up kind of like this:The farther down it goes, the farther up to balance

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 18, Part 3: The Emptied Bucket

13 days ago

AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5Q
 
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 

 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Head of Obscure Movie References. Artwork by David Parkins.[Emil’s Summary] We implicitly

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The (Other) Shoe Of Unemployment

14 days ago

After raising the specter of a rebound stall, the idea before limited to Japan and Germany was abruptly given further weight today by US jobless claims numbers. For the first time since the peak at the end of March, the weekly tally of initial filings increased from the prior week. The estimate for the week of July 18, 2020, came in at 1.41 million, more than the revised estimate of 1.31 million the week of July 11.
Second derivatives matter, of course, and a potential durable change in it for this particular statistic isn’t being taken lightly. Reopening was supposed to lead to an unfettered rebound, the “V” which can’t be a “V” unless it takes the smallest amount of time to get where it’s going (better than even, in the best case).The claims figures actually suggest a turnaround

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 18, Part 2: The Emptier Bucket

15 days ago

AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/G2H1tjTm1mA
 
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 

 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Head of Obscure Movie References. Artwork by David Parkins.[Emil’s Summary] We implicitly

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A German Stall? Here’s Some Puppets!

15 days ago

It’s one of those things I wish I had more time to thoroughly investigate. What can these Germans possibly be thinking? While the ZEW sentiment indicator actually came back down a bit in July 2020 from its 2005-style perch in June, the ZEW for all of Europe actually went further upward. Either that means Christine Lagarde has been successful (at something other than practicing politics) for the first time in her long public career (she was a successful lawyer previously, so there’s that and it explains a lot about her mobility), or something else is going on. I don’t think there’s any doubt that it is the latter.History has shown, twice, how this sort of measured sentiment aligns way too perfectly with central bank activity rather than activity of the real economy variety. Monetary

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A Japanese Stall?

15 days ago

In sharp contrast to the sentimental deference towards central bank stimulus exhibited by Germany’s ZEW, for example, similar Japanese surveys are starting to describe potential trouble developing. Like Germany, Japan is a bellwether country and a pretty reliable indicator of global economy performance. Both of these places had solidly indicated the globally synchronized downturn long before it was recognized in any mainstream source (with central bankers last to figure it out).Historically, the ZEW German panel has been easily wowed by the ECB to the upside. The Japanese, on the other hand, don’t seem to care much what the Bank of Japan does or does not do. Thus, while German sentiment skyrockets way, way ahead of German data, the Jibun survey, for one, almost undershoots it.According

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More To Being De-dollared

16 days ago

It’s understandable to an extent. Central banks are omnipotent, central bankers therefore the nearest human equivalent of gods. That’s what we’re all taught, so if something happens somewhere to some market then we’re left to believe it was because one of the gods wanted it that way.Taking this globally, the Fed made a bunch of money in the aftermath of GFC1, therefore there’s no other way to account for how China has behaved other than to assign all activity to the PBOC. Even better than the Fed, so far as the technocratic ideal is concerned, where the US central bank might have limitations the Chinese central bank is theoretically limited by none.Authoritarian Communism, after all, can arbitrarily justify its arbitrary shifts to anyone however it likes. Given the one’s stated hostility

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Exposing The Golden Lie

16 days ago

To hear it told nowadays, you’d think that gold’s amazing run began when Jay Powell started cranking out bank reserves. Those telling the story equate those bank reserves to effective money printing, so it conforms to the conventional myth about gold’s relationship to the money supply (whatever that is). Throw in a federal government, every federal government, recklessly borrowing and spending, and bullion nearing its record high makes for an inflationary confirmation to Jay Powell’s otherwise very thin fiction; a story the technocratic-loving mainstream media is desperate to likewise print (pardon the pun).
It’s amazing what strange bedfellows these days, the Fed Chairman looking to goldbugs to help him sell the fairy tale. And they are doing it:

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $1,835 an

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Huge, Massive Difference: De-dollarizing vs. Being De-dollared

17 days ago

There is a tremendous difference between the world de-dollarizing and those living in it being de-dollared. The former is a choice, the latter a fact of existence since August of 2007 (to varying degrees). Yet, most people, especially the “experts”, talk of only the first one as if that was all there is to it.Especially when it comes to China.We are told, repeatedly, that the Chinese are gunning for the dollar. And while that’s absolutely true, it doesn’t mean nearly as much as we are led to believe. There are certainly geopolitical factors to consider, particularly with tensions heating up way beyond that whole “trade war” nonsense. But there’s so much more to it than that where a reserve currency is concerned. If it all it takes is some willingness then history would have been very

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 18, Part 1: The Empty Bucket

17 days ago

AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/SmC9RPgOngk
 
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Head of Obscure Movie References.  Artwork by David Parkins.
[Emil’s Summary] We implicitly

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What Capitalism Can Do When Allowed, And Communism Never Will

17 days ago

This article was originally published on Real Clear Markets on July 17th, 2020.
 
Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990 “for his leading role in the peace process which today characterizes important parts of the international community.” Maybe, but it sure didn’t start out that way.
By that, I don’t mean to suggest Gorbachev was some warmonger cloaking himself in the language of peace. On the contrary, the man was sincere. He was also sincere in his commitment to Communism and the Soviet way. What ultimately led him to such international acclaim was first his honesty in looking inward at that system itself. The rest was mere expedience.
History has made the words perestroika (restructure) and glasnost (literally: listen) synonymous with the man. And while

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Not This Again

20 days ago

Not this again. When you really have run out of ideas, just set something aside for a time and then when it comes time again simply dust it off and pretend it is new and inspired. You can make it sound great, so long as no one remembers and realizes just how tired and ridiculous it actually is.It’s almost as if officials at the Fed are making another major, concerted inflation push. I doubt very much this is coincidence that Lael Brainerd, a member of the Board of Governors, and Patrick Harker, President of the Philly Branch, over the last few days both spoke of letting inflation run hot for a long time regardless of how quickly the economy recovers. Here’s Harker a couple days ago:

We’ve been saying for a long time that the 2% inflation goal is symmetric, which means we should

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Of Incomplete Plans and Recoveries

20 days ago

At the monthly press conference China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) now regularly gives whenever the Big Three economic accounts are updated (this time along with quarterly GDP), spokesman Liu Aihua was asked by a reporter from Reuters to comment on how the global economic recession might impact the Communist government’s long range goal of reaching its assigned GDP target. Liu started by saying that much of it was already done, anecdotally at least.

Since the reform and opening up, our understanding of comprehensive well-off has been continuously enriched. The problem of food and clothing for the people has now been solved, and the overall well-off has been achieved. On this basis, the report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that

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