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James Colquhoun

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Is Ukrainian corn a potential winner of China, US, EU trade spat?

July 31, 2018

The recent application of retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US corn by both the EU and China is likely to reduce exports from the US to these countries sharply. One potential beneficiary of this is Ukraine, a major corn exporter on the Black Sea. However, lack of clarity on the duration of the tariffs and whether they might suddenly rise or fall creates uncertainty over whether Black Sea exporters will benefit.
After the EU and US announced on July 25, 2018, they would work more closely toward 0% tariffs, there might be little chance of Ukraine profiting.
High stocks in both China and the EU are another factor indicating Ukraine is unlikely to benefit in the short term. The reduction in potential destinations for US corn is likely to trigger a drop in prices.

Consequently, Ukrainian

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