The Misunderstood Dynamics Of Negative Yields

I submit to you that there is a difference between “money” and “currency.”
What is the purpose of currency? Currency is the medium by which an economy can transmit economic value between its agents and standardize the exchange of unlike items; that is, currency establishes a system that improves upon barter economics.
In its truest sense, currency is a voucher of retained economic productivity. When a person does labor that brings economic value, or transfers items of economic value, the currency they receive serves as “verification” economic contributions have been accumulated or transferred to another party.
In a barter society I till your farm for you, you provide a cottage on your land for me; my family harvests wheat and swaps it

My additional research of empirical data from 1871 to 2021 has resulted in the 4-new significant discoveries which pertain to record highs, Perilous Peaks, and Secular Bull market highs:
The addition of the initial Perilous Peak, which occurred in 1881. The four S&P 500 Perilous Peaks since inception happened in 1881, 1929, 2000 & 2021.  
“DNA” for a Perilous Peak and development of the Extreme Analytics (EA) algorithm identifies Perilous Peaks.
“Greed Accelerator,” one of the critical elements of the DNA which has preceded every one of the S&P 500’s Perilous Peaks since its inception.
There is a direct correlation between Perilous Peaks, Secular Bull market highs, and the birth dates for Secular Bears.

The discoveries corroborate the initial research findings covered in the

On January 8, 2021, the S&P 500 reached its third perilous high since 1871 according to the Extreme Analytics (EA) algorithm.
Recently concluded research of 150 years of empirical data revealed that 1929 and 2000 were the first-ever perilous highs for the S&P 500 since its inception.  The research findings also led to the development of the Extreme Analytics (EA) algorithm which identifies perilous highs for stock markets and indices.  The Bull Vix, another algorithm that identifies Bullish Sentiment Anomalies (BSA), which has been integrated into the EA, is projecting a double-digit correction to begin by February 5, 2021.  The Bull Vix is projecting that Subsequent to the double-digit correction, the S&P 500 will fail to recover back to new highs and will instead decline 50% to 80%

What defines a “wonderful business?”
I recently purchased a used vehicle off an auction site. The process was simple: I reviewed the cars currently on auction, identified the few that looked like good deals to me, and then found the one that best suits my needs.
My friend takes a different approach. He finds a car that he wants and calls all the dealers in town, offering them a really low price. He tells them that if they ever really need to move inventory and are willing to accept his offer, give him a call, and he’ll come by the dealership, cash in hand.
This difference in approach is akin to the different methods of finding attractive investments. Most people look around the stock or bond markets to see what seems to be most attractive. A smart minority considers first a group of

Most recent findings from researching the three prior Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) occurrences since 2017 indicate a 100% probability the S&P will be down, and the VIX up, by year-end.
S&P 500 to decline by 11%.
Call options that trade VIX, VXX, and UVXY to increase by 1,000% to 10,000%.
Shares of the VXX and UVXY mimic the CBOE’s volatility index (VIX) to increase by 50% and 100%, respectively.
Additionally, the anomaly discovery has resulted in the development of the Bull Vix (BVX) algorithm and www.bullvix.com, which is now operational.  The Bull Vix’s mandate is to exclusively:
Monitor for future BSA occurrences
Utilize BBT algorithm’s short signals, which have powered Bull & Bear Tracker and Bear Trader alert to trade long and short index ETFs since 2018, to send alerts to

The Premature Vaccine Rally To Soon Fizzle
The stock market rally after Pfizer announced that its Coronavirus vaccine was 90% effective was premature since the vaccine:
Now in stage 3, clinical trials have been fast-tracked by the FDA for emergency use ONLY
Must finish Stage 3 and also stage 4 clinical trials before being approved for masses
Not scalable since it requires storage at -70 degrees Celsius (-97 F)
Probability is high for the vaccine driven rally to fizzle with Dow Jones 30 Industrials & S&P 500 composites reverting to their October 30th lows and declines of approximately 10% by the end of 2020 for three reasons:
1 – Surges of the following to new highs for the week ended November 15, 2020:
S&P 500 to a recent6 all-time closing high.
AAII (American Association of Individual

There are four possible post-2020 election outcome scenarios which will determine the directionof the US stock market through November 2022:
Republican President/Republican Senate/ Democrat House
Republican President/Democrat Senate/ Democrat House
Democrat President/Democrat Senate/Democrat House
Democrat President/Republican Senate/ Democrat House
The election outcome long term rankings in the table below assume that additional stimulus will result in the interest rates or the yield for 10-year US Treasury bond to be relatively higher.   Higher interest rates reduce economic growth and stock PE multiples. Conversely, I based the short-term rankings on the stimulus or the degree of to be added or not.
The long-term rankings cover the two years through the 2022 midterm Congressional

The Dow See A New Low Before Recession Ends?
Based on new empirical research findings, the Dow Jones 30 (Dow) composite index is likely to soon peak. It will then begin a steady decline to new lows in 2020 or 2021.
According to the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm, the probability is 90% for the Dow to reach new lows before the current US recession ends. The algorithm’s forecast assumes that the 2020 recession will last until at least March of 2021.
The Forecast
The forecast, based on SCPA research of the Dow’s performance during the five US recessions from 1929 to 2007. Each recession lasted a minimum of one year.  The chart below depicts the five recessions.

The research findings revealed that the Dow:
initially declined after each of the five recessions

The probability of a “V-shaped” economic recovery is very low.
For the second quarter of 2020, US GDP experienced its worst-ever contraction of 32%. The key question now is how fast will the economy recover?
Morgan Stanley has emphatically stated that the economy would climb back to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by the fourth quarter of 2020. According to the Wall Street Journal as of July 26, 2020,  President Trump’s advisors were still predicting a V-shaped recovery. Its why two of the US’ three major stock indices rallied back to new highs.
Politicians and Wall Street investment firms are notorious for not being objective with their estimates and economic forecasts.  See “The Problem with Wall Street’s Forecasts”.  Therefore, my top priority had been to find a reliable and

Inflation is the stock market’s worst nemesis which lurks on the horizon.
My recent article pointed out that after adjusting for inflation, it took 30 years (or until 1959) for the stock market to recover to its 1929 high. The revelation prompted me to conduct additional empirical research on GDP and its components from 1929 to 1942. My goal was to use empirical data to assess the potential risk for an increase in inflation from the 2020 global economic collapse. Inflation is a market’s worst enemy since it results in a contraction of the PE multiple, a stock’s key valuation metric.

A Bit Of History
During the period of 1929 to 1937, the culprit which caused the 20-fold increase in inflation, at its peak, was the significant decline in capital spending. The chart below depicts that

Eric Hickman discusses how COVID-19 has defied hyperbole.
The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating. Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover. U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative. Sell “risk-on” assets, increase cash, and buy Treasury bonds.
The U.S., if not the world’s economy was primed for a serious recession coming into 2020. I argued in an article published on January 13 that, based on economic indicators, a U.S. recession would begin sometime before the end of 2020 and likely by March. In this context, COVID-19 was just the catalyst (albeit, a transcendent one) that tipped the world into it. Pandemic or not, the world was oversupplied and due to flush-out bad debt, weak companies and inequality. It only needed a push. China hadn’t

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized.
The chart below for the NASDAQ from 2000 to 2020 depicts:
2000 &

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

The market indices of the US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, France and Germany and the share prices for many of the world’s largest companies including Apple and Microsoft are at the tipping point.  Stocks and indices reached their post-crash and relief rally closing highs from March 25th through March 27th.

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

The statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm’s forecast for an interim market bottom to occur on March 23, 2020, was precisely accurate.  It was the algo’s third consecutive precise major global markets call for March of 2020.

The day after the “Probability is 87% that market is at

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

The simultaneous double-digit declines for the stock markets of four of the world’s developed countries from February 20 to February 28, 2020 was not only an historic event; but unfortunately, ominous in that it portends dire financial times ahead.  
Based on empirical data and statistics the probability is 100%

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

The 2:00PM press conference held by US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the conclusion of the January 29th FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting started out with a bang. Within minutes the S&P 500 rallied to its high of the day. Shortly thereafter, the world’s leading stock index began to make lower highs

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com

Based on my reading the financial news and listening to the market pundits about the potential impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus the probability is very high that the global equity markets will experience a severe correction or maybe even a crash very soon.  It’s because the virus has not yet been discounted by

Eric Hickman is president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., an advisory firm located in Denver, Colorado specializing in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Good economic news over the last couple months belies the fact that a recession could strike as soon as March 2020.
That good news has been plentiful: a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China is presumably close to being signed, the December U.S. Labor jobs report exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve didn’t lower rates at their December meeting, and developed-economy stock markets continue making new highs. The Fed’s mantra of, “the economy is in a good place” is the ethos of the moment.

But just behind those data points, many more are suggesting a deteriorating economy. The Citigroup U.S. Surprise index (which measures how

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com
Based on my analysis of the S&P 500 technical chart patterns after new all-time highs were set in 1999, 2000, 2007, 2018 and 2019, the index is ripening for a significant correction or a crash.  The volatility increasing for a market that is making new all-time highs near the end of a secular bull market and economic

Guest Post by Michael Kahn, CMT. 
Mike is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), Columnist, Editor, Analyst, Instructor, Speaker and Author of three books on technical analysis.
It is always difficult for we humans to separate our gut feelings from cold, hard data. After all, the latter is why we built computers so we don’t have to worry about those silly facts. I know I personally prefer to act on whims based on my extensive life experience as they masquerade for analysis.
That is why in the midst of on-again, off-again trade wars, budget battles, political fracturing, the Fed and slowing global growth it is completely uncomfortable to look at the data and buy this market.
Is it the blood in the streets that Rothschild espoused? Or is it fearful enough for Buffet’s “buy when others are