Sunday , January 20 2019
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Gregor Samsa

Gregor Samsa

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Articles by Gregor Samsa

La Grande Entrée!

1 day ago

Go Boogie!  The best starting five in the history of the NBA is now in action!

A GRAND ENTRANCE FROM BOOGIE COUSINS 😤 pic.twitter.com/N7rRFPKyCa
— ESPN (@espn) January 19, 2019

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More, please!

1 day ago

We all need to get ourselves back to the Garden this place…  The kindness and innocence of a little child.

Teach your children to love animals, and not to hurt them. #BeThatPerson 🐷🐃🐶🦁🐒🐘🐤🐼🐳🐠🦆🐝🐫🐻🐺#FosterCompassion
Not to hurt them hunt them eat them use them for entertainment use them for experiments pit them in zoos or take away their babies. Teach your kids all of it. pic.twitter.com/7kWHcYs1eJ
— Angie Karan Ⓥ 🌱🐾 (@angie_karan) January 18, 2019

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Ten Good Weekend Reads

2 days ago

Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?  – Irish Times
The Left’s Delusions About Mexico’s New President – New Republic
Economists reconsider how much governments can borrow – Economist
Public Debt Through The Ages – Barry Eichengreen – IMF
‘Modern Monetary Theory’ Is a Joke That’s Not Funny – Bloomberg
Don’t Be So Sure Hyperinflation Can’t Hit the U.S. – Bloomberg
Don’t kid yourself, the Federal Reserve isn’t done with interest-rate increases – MarketWatch

Global policy uncertainty at record levels, Deutsche Bank says – FT

5 puzzles in the international economy – Brookings
Goldman Says Rich People Will Drag Down the U.S. Economy by Spending Less – Bloomberg
Bonus
The Things John Bogle Taught Us: Humility, Ethics and Simplicity – NY Times
Bridgewater’s New Brain: A

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TOTD: Quantum Mechanics Of Life

2 days ago

Five FEYNMAN rules to live by:i) Don’t be afraid of your uniqueness.ii) Do what you get the most pleasure from.iii) Don’t worry about what others are thinking.iv) Have a sense of humor and talk honestly.v) Make mistakes and learn. pic.twitter.com/yVO43NKXQj
— Richard Feynman (@ProfFeynman) January 16, 2019

TOTD – Tweet of the Day

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 18

2 days ago

From the Great Jason Zweig
January 18:

2000: Its impossible to pay too much for a good stock, a leading investor tells The Wall Street Journal with a straight face. Its a new world order, says Robert Froelich, vice chairman and chief investment strategist at Kemper Funds. He says investors should own Cisco Systems, Motorola and Intel at any price and not worry about the valuation. We see people discard all the right companies with all the right people with the right vision because their stock price is too high — thats the worst mistake an investor can make. The people who have missed the bull market are the people who are on the sidelines trying to figure out how to value these things as opposed to getting into the market. Theyre also the people who miss the destruction of

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Stopped Out of S&P; Jumping Back Into Brazil

3 days ago

Mother Fudger!
The tape bomb about the U.S. keystone cops capitulating on the tariffs in China trade negotiations kicks in the aglos taking the e-minis right up to my stop only to reverse.  Those ‘bots are tough MoFos to beat and have been killing us for the past three years.  Sometimes, you feel the market has it personally in for you.
Not true.  Mr. Market could give a shit about your positions.
These guys running economic policy in this administration may be the worst in history.  And I’m not saying that out of spite because I lost money today.
There is no doubt in my mind the final China Trade Deal will be another Potemkin Village with only some cosmetic adjustments just as NAFTA 2.0 and the Korean Deal were.
Mnuchin and Malpass are up against these guys,  who know Trump wants a

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Getting Long Call Options On Phillies

3 days ago

I wish.
The Phillies are not a publicly listed company as is Manchester United, for example, or as the Boston Celtics used to be before going private. Maybe Cramer knows how to play this one.
Check out the latest rumor on the Bleacher Report.
The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly trying to maintain financial flexibility with an eye toward a serious push to sign Los Angeles Angels superstar outfielder Mike Trout, who can become a free agent following the 2020 MLB season.
On Wednesday, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reported the Phillies have enough money to acquire both infielder Manny Machado and outfielder Bryce Harper—this year’s most coveted players in free agency—but would rather add one and keep a path open to attracting Trout.  – BR, January 17
The modern-day Ruth and

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Limit Order On S&P Executed

3 days ago

Per last night’s post, our sell of 5 contracts of the  S&P e-minis just got done at 2618.  Feels uncomfortable and still gun shy after our last S&P facial but sticking with the discipline of our plan and signal.  Stop at 2645.
We post these trades so that our readers can hold us accountable and measure the efficacy of our views.  For some readers it is unnecessary noise.  Let us know.

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 17

3 days ago

From the great Jason Zweig

January 17:

1991: As the U.S. military blasts Baghdad and Kuwait, driving back Saddam Husseins invading troops, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shoots up 4.6% to close at 2623.51.
http://www.history.navy.mil/wars/datesjan.htm;http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/cron;http://www.desert-storm.com/War/chronology.html;http://averages.dowjones.com

1946: Slow down, bull! With the stock market up more than 20% since World War II ended just five months earlier, the Federal Reserve Board temporarily eliminates all margin trading, preventing anyone from trading stocks with money borrowed from a broker.
Today in NYSE History, at www.nyse.com/about/TodayInNYSE.html

1834: With Pres. Andrew Jackson seeking to dissolve the Bank of the United States, Wall

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Our Autopsy On The Still Living Bear Market

3 days ago

Summary
We believe the market is way off base in its analysis of what caused stocks to sell hard in 2018
The U.S. and world have a debt problem and yields need to mover higher in order for markets to clear
The breakout in long-term yields in late September broke the U.S. stock market
The macro factors that caused the stock market collapse, the changing dynamics in the Treasury market,  have not changed and are likely to deteriorate further
A volatile future is highly likely
Timing to be determined
Is that it?
The end of the bear market?
Autopsy in the above title is a misnomer.  We believe the bear is not quite dead yet.
Moreover, what was it that caused stocks, the S&P500,  to sell off 20.21% in just 66 trading day?
We don’t claim to have the Truth, nor does anyone else,  but what

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S&P500 Key Levels & Gravestone Doji

3 days ago

Today’s price action and candle look sound as closest like a bell ringing to sell the S&P as you are going to get.   Yes, we jumped the gate a bit early in our recent short and are very cognizant the market psychology has changed but this is a set-up we cannot pass on.
Today’s price action rejected the S&P very close to the 50-day and generated a gravestone Doji candlestick, which have signaled a short-term top.
The overnight futures are a bit underwater but we will be looking to get short on any pop.  We have a limit order to sell 5 contracts at 2618 with a stop 2645.  Note 2643 is the .50 retracement of the current bear market.  If we get stopped out and lose money on this trade, we will have to reassess our market view.
May have to sell lower, however.  Wish us luck.

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QOTD: John Bogle, RIP

3 days ago

Trees don’t grow to the sky, and I see clouds on the horizon. I don’t know if and when they’ll arrive. A little extra caution should be the watchword – John Bogle, Barron’s – December 28, 2018

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 16

4 days ago

From the great Jason Zweig
January 16:

1991: The Persian Gulf war begins (at 7 p.m., Eastern Time) as the U.S. transforms Operation Desert Shield into Operation Desert Storm by launching its aerial bombardment of Baghdad and Kuwait.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Aug2000/n08082000_20008088.html; http://www.history.navy.mil/wars/datesjan.htmhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/cron; http://www.desert-storm.com/War/chronology.html

1974: The New York Stock Exchange’s systems are so primitive that a single computer glitch at Merrill, Lynch & Co. delays the opening of the trading day by a full 15 minutes.
Today in NYSE History, at www.nyse.com/about/TodayInNYSE.html

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Perspective In The Permian

4 days ago

For a bit of perspective, the entire state of California, which recently beat out the United Kingdom as the fifth biggest economy in the world, has around 10 active drilling rigs. The Permian Basin alone has nearly 500. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the United States’ top energy moguls, have both made the Permian Basin their focus, prioritizing their investments in West Texas over all their other projects worldwide, while European supermajors including Royal Dutch Shell and BP are also working diligently on growing their presence in the Permian. – Oilprice.com

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Stopped Out Of Pound And S&P

5 days ago

We are out of our S&P short at 2604.  Totally mistimed the positive China stimulus rhetoric overnight.  Can’t win them on.  Clearly, new market psychology for new.  Look to sell higher unless decisive break about 2650.   On to the next trade.
Nervous traders take down the Sterling over one percent before BREXIT vote today, which hit our stop on the March contract at 1.2830.  We still like cable but didn’t want to turn a big win into a loser.  Expecting some more volatility and will put in a limit buy order at 1.26 handle.
Enough of the trading posts.  Time to feed you some real meat.

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Investors Look to Earnings Amid Market Confusion

5 days ago

Jan.14 — Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz, Henry Peabody, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Management, and Noah Weisberger, managing director at Sanford Bernstein, discuss market expectations for quarterly earnings. They speak with Bloomberg’s Jonatan Ferro on “Bloomberg Markets: The Open.” – Bloomberg Markets & Finance
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This Day In Financial History

5 days ago

From the great Jason Zweig
January 15:

1987: The New York Stock Exchange racks up daily volume of over a quarter-of-a-billion shares for the first time, as a total of 253.1 million shares are traded.
http://www.nyse.com/marketinfo/

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The 2020 Senate Map

5 days ago

Break out the Lavender crayons.  Again.

Hat Tip: @RedwoodGirl

Help keep the lights on at the Global Macro Monitor.   Contribute any amount based on your perception of our value added by clicking the PayPal donate widget at the right side of the screen.  Thank you!

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British Pound Trade – OCO Order

5 days ago

We have over $8k unrealized profit in our cable trade and expect some two-way volatility around the BREXIT vote today.
We are thus putting in an OCO (One-Cancels-The-Other) order on 5 contracts of B6H19 with a limit at 1.3050 and stop at 1.2830,  just below the 50-day.  If we get taken out, don’t mind buying higher.
Conversely, don’t want to turn a winner into a loser in the event traders get spooked.  Not sure the market would be comfortable contemplating a potential Jeremy Corbyn government over the next few weeks.

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UPDATE: S&P500 Short

5 days ago

If you missed it, we sold five S&P500 e-minis at 2582 into the close.   The Doji like daily candlesticks over the past few trading sessions was our sell signal.  Note Doji’s have been the closest to ringing a bell at the short-term top in this correction.  It’s worth a bet, in our book.
Moving Up Stop
They are ramping ’em in the overnight session and our position is now 13 points underwater.  In haste, we put in a stop in at 2602 but now moving it up to 2604.  Not a good habit to move stops when a position is moving against you but we will take a waiver on this one. 
Note also the stop is pretty tight (less than 1 percent) for a 19 VIX.
Retail Traders And SPY
For those who don’t trade futures or have no account,  a short can be executed in the S&P ETF, SPY.
Many like to play in the

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S&P500 Key Levels

5 days ago

Our daily Doji candlestick, though not perfect but close enough for government work, was triggered at the close.  The S&P rally has stalled and is having trouble cracking through 2600.
Squeezey in the overnight session with futures up 16 handles, probably, in part, due to strength in Asia stocks, especially the Hang Seng.
Though it is not wise to move stops when the market is moving against your position, we are moving our stop on the S&P e-minis up 3 points to 2604, which corresponds to a 2601-ish cash price.  That is where we want to be.  We stuck the 2601 stop in at the close in haste to get the trade off and the info out to you.
So, 2797.92, Thursday and the January high, on the cash is the marker to the upside.  The key downside level to watch is  2573.61, the .382 Fibo

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Shorting S&P500 Futures Into Close

6 days ago

Looks like we are going to get the Doji candlestick, or close to it, today, which is our sell signal and entry point.   Selling 5 e-mini futures right in here at 2582.  Stop at 2601.  Target 2400.   May add if 2573 breaks.
Retail traders should look at the S&P500 ETF, SPY.   Back to you on those data points.

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JFK-Trump S&P Analog 2.0

6 days ago

MarketWatch giving us some nice props in their excellent piece today on the back of the Zero Hedge post about our JFK-Trump S&P analog, which convinced us last February that global stocks had entered in a bear market and would soon “roll-over hard.”
Back in April, the Global Macro Monitor blog, which was the first to draw the comparison, warned in an update that, if the trend in the chart below were to continue, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.34%  would soon take a big hit.
It may have taken a bit longer than expected, but the selling sure came, and the charts are now in lockstep. In fact, Wall Street has taken notice.
In a note shared on the Zero Hedge blog over the weekend, Goldman GS, +1.38% strategist David Kostin chimed in about how the current retreat, driven by policy concerns, mirrors

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QOTD: The Fall Of Sears And GE

6 days ago

The real lesson is starker. It is that no business, no matter how historically innovative or powerful, is guaranteed immortality. – Robert Samuelson
QOTD = Quote of the Day

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The Great Disruption – Gordon Brown, Project Syndicate

6 days ago

The collapsing post-War economic order is not even close to being on the radar of the market cheerleaders.  We think it is a yuuge structural risk.
Priced?  Are you frickin’ kidding me?
As new technologies, globalization, and growing inequality fuel a populist backlash across the West, 2018 could be remembered as a turning point for the liberal world order. Rising nationalism, widening trade wars, and the overall weakening of international cooperation are symptoms of a deeper struggle over what international arrangements will come next.
SUBSCRIBE NOW: Unrivaled Insights about the Issues Shaping your World – https://www.project-syndicate.org/ord…
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Sterling Set For Interesting Week

6 days ago

Prime minister Theresa May brings her Brexit deal to parliament on Tuesday, which is widely expected to fail.  The government will cushion the blow by removing the potential for a do deal BREXIT, in our opinion.   We believe the PM is also a closet supporter of a second referendum.
You know our view on cable.  Very bullish.
An announcement of a second referendum takes sterling to 1.35, which then consolidates, and experiences some volatility over a contentious a campaign.  As the landslide for the remainers becomes evident, cable moves to 1.50, or maybe higher.
Not without some gap risk this week, however,  as the government could fall and a new election called.   Our stop on the March contract is in 1.2633 but we will be back in at lower prices.
Nevertheless, the sterling is now

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Week In Review – January 11

6 days ago

Summary
EM bookends in local currency yields. Turkey in 33 bps, Mexico out 17 bps
US 10-year yields out 3 bps. Some squishy auctions last week
U.S. corporate credit in yuuuge
Euro periphery tighter
EM FX continues to recover
Dollar index still banging around in 95-97 range
Big rebound in RMB
Aussie stronger
British Pound moving higher on expectations no BREXIT and a new referendum
Good week for stocks, led by Nikkei
U.S. biotech continues to ramp. ETF up over 13 percent YTD
Russell outperforming major U.S. indices, up almost 5 percent on the week
Crude bid. Up over 13 percent YTD
Commentary:  Earnings kick off with Citibank in the morning.  Stocks behaving well but we will be looking closely for a reversal signal, such as few daily Doji candlesticks, for example.  The slowing global

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