Sunday , July 12 2020
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Gregor Samsa

Gregor Samsa

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Articles by Gregor Samsa

Can Skyscrapers Predict Economic Turmoil?

1 day ago

Very interesting video.
We are not sure about the Skyscraper Index because the current economic situation is so unique.   We do suspect unless a COVID vaccine hits the market soon, the work from home/exit to the ‘burbs transition will accelerate and office buildings and related commercial real estate investments are going to continue to be in a world of hurt.
As the global economy sputters in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, some economists are looking to city skylines for clues to the future. But skeptics argue that the so-called skyscraper curse, which holds that big buildings spell big financial trouble, is at best fanciful. Video by Raymond Schillinger
Sources: Thornton, Mark, Skyscrapers and Business Cycles (May 31, 2012): https://ssrn.com/abstract=2071293
Barr, Jason and

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The Bubble In A Fairy Tale World

2 days ago

Great interview with Michael Novogratz, Galaxy Digital founder, CEO, and chairman.  He sounds exactly like the global macro heads at GMM.  His money quotes from the July 8th CNBC interview should sound very familiar to our readers.
Money Quotes
Macro set-up is so perfect for something like gold…central banks around the world keep printing money…more money, more money, more money
Gold is going to take old highs and keep going…we are just starting this move
We are in the irrational exuberance zone in the market but it’s hard to figure out where that stops
Get on the airplane just make sure you are in a seat closest to the exit.
We are in a bubble
I think Biden is going to win by a landslide
He [Biden] is going to jack up capital gains taxes to ordinary income….that won’t be good for

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Lex Rex: SCOTUS Saves The American Republic

3 days ago

Lex Rex
The literal meaning of the two words is “Law King” . . . which as Rutherford explained ( and was imprisoned for what he said and came close to losing his head for it) . . . means the King (or man) is not the supreme Law 
Chief Justice John Robert’s majority opinion on the Court’s ruling on President Trump’s tax returns is a must read, folks.  Click on the link to read it in full.  Patriots will not be disappointed.
TRUMP v. VANCE, DISTRICT ATTORNEY OF THE COUNTY OF NEW YORK, ET AL.
Two hundred years ago, a great jurist of our Court estab- lished that no citizen, not even the President, is categori- cally above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding. We reaffirm that principle today and hold that the President is neither abso- lutely

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Looks Like A Democratic Tsunami – Cook Report

3 days ago

This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.  — Cook Report

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Riding The Gravy Train: S&P500 Key Levels

4 days ago

The U.S. stock market is very expensive and narrow, led by large-cap tech with S&P500 range-bound between 3233 and 2965, a 9 percent range, closing today at the upper 1/3rd of that range.   Not a fan, and a dangerous market, in the opinion of the GMM macro heads.
However, as our stock-picker extraordinaire, Coach Carol, says you “gotta ride this gravy train as long as it’s running.”  Nobody calls the top, nor the bottom, or knows the future.
Her long-term perspective as an investor is uniquely coupled with the discipline of a trader as we watch her practice the mantra,

“Cut Your Losses Short & Let Your Winners Run”.

Her performance in her personal portfolio speaks for itself.  She has, however, been raising a lot of cash recently.
Key Levels to watch (underlined): 
Upside       –

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QOTD: Crises & Economic Ideas

6 days ago

Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.  – Milton Friedman
Hat Tip:  Joe Calhoun @JoeCalhoun3
Anyone dare to take a crack on the idea lying around that will be/has been taken up during this crisis?
Hint:  I just bought a book on the topic that is still lying around that I need to take up and read.  It should also put significant downward pressure on the following chart. 

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Mike Trout Doubt’s America’s False Choice

7 days ago

We have always maintained that to reopen the economy was a false choice unless the public had confidence the virus had been contained.

The U.S. is losing control of the COVID crisis due to the colossal failure of leadership by the Administration.  Sure, deaths are way down but they lag the new case count by around two to four weeks.  If the market rally is based on the lower death count, then it should be a short lived rally.

The weekly seasonality in the data must have to do with how it is reported.
Look at the date of this Tweet.

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
— Donald J. Trump

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Canada Crushed The COVID Curve As The U.S. Struggles

7 days ago

“They had a healthy respect for this virus.”

The U.S. leaders thought they could gaslight science and the virus,  Canadian pols respected science and it shows in the data.  The Canucks were not influenced or led by the “Jesus Is My Vaccine” nonsense.
Canada is now only seeing a few hundred new cases per day versus over 50K in the U.S., which is a factor of 223x.  Rather stunning considering the U.S. has a population of only 8.7x that of Canada.
By the way,  GMM is proud to have a Canadian citizen on board.  One of the smartest, most rational, and commonsensical persons we know.  The Canuck was a big influencer in our warning about the strategy of the U.S. leaders back in April,
The Trump campaign strategy now seems to be keep whiping up the base and try to even…wait for

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The Real History Of The 4th Of July

8 days ago

Good stuff from Dictionary.com.  Looks like John Adams was two days early in his forecast on the date of the celebration.  Fortunately, he wasn’t trading S&P options, where timing is everything. 
The history of Independence Day was also/still is very complicated by America’s legacy of slavery, which appears we are finally addressing as the touch of leadership is slowly passed to a generation of younger Americans.  The great American social reformer, abolitionist, orator, writer, statesman, and free slave Frederick Douglass’ powerful July 4, 1852 speech, “What to the Slave Is the Fourth of July.” seems just as appropriate for today as it did almost 170 years ago. 
Providentially, America is still a relatively young nation, 
There is hope in the thought, and hope is much needed,

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Happy Birthday, America!

8 days ago

In Congress, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. – Declaration of Independence

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The Mathematics Of Weight Loss

9 days ago

Fascinating Tedx Talks vid by Ruben Meerman, The Surfing Scientist, especially for those planning to drop a few after the fireworks.

Chemical Formula For Human Fat
C55H104O6

Where does the fat go after you lose it?   Listen up.
Well worth the 20 minutes of your time.  Might just change or even save your life.
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Markets Have Jumped The Shark

11 days ago

Jump The Shark
The beginning of the end. Something is said to have “jumped the shark” when it has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide to mediocrity or oblivion. It’s said to have been coined by Jon Hein, who has a web site, jumptheshark.com, and now a book detailing examples, especially as applied to TV shows. It supposedly refers to an episode of the TV show “Happy Days” in which Fonzie jumps over a shark on water skis, which Hein believes was the point at which the series had lost its touch and was beginning to grasp at straws. – Urban Dictionary
Welcome to the Twilight Zone.    Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t.  It truly feels the

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More Companies Jumping On Facebook Boycott Train

11 days ago

Advertisements for hundreds of brands are due to disappear from Facebook and Instagram on Wednesday, as a wide-ranging ad boycott against the world’s largest social media company is taking effect.
Last week, the Anti-Defamation League along with several civil rights groups had launched the campaign “Stop Hate for Profit”, asking advertisers to pause their spending on Facebook and Instagram in the month of July in protest of the company’s lackluster response to hate speech and other defamatory content across its platforms.  – Statista

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Canadian Home Buyers In Bidding Wars

12 days ago

About that deflation……….
Lauren Haw, CEO of Zoocasa, speaks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the state of the housing market across the country.
To read this story and more: https://business.financialpost.com/Subscribe to watch more Financial Post videos: https://bit.ly/3380Px3
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The CK-35: How NOT to Build a Portfolio

12 days ago

By Carol K.
On Monday, June 29th, I sold six holdings from my CK-35 portfolio. For the uninitiated, the CK -35 was a “paper” portfolio (not real money), of individual stocks selected by me, at the urging of GMM head honcho, Gregor Samsa.

Personal Portfolio
After a rough start managing my personal portfolio around 2013, I’ve dramatically turned my performance around by devoting the necessary time and effort to learning as much as I can about investing, portfolio management, and the importance of having a disciplined system. I have learned one must clearly define the goals for the portfolio.
First, is define your time horizon. Are you a long term buy-and-hold investor or a short-term trader looking to hop in and out of stocks or ETFs and perhaps scalping few dollars along the way?

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Empire State Building & The Future Of Office Buildings

12 days ago

Good view.  Watch this space, it could be the next big negative catalyst for the financial sector and economy.
New York City’s famed Empire State Building symbolizes the challenges many commercial spaces face as the U.S. tries to reopen and get back to business. Subscribe: http://smarturl.it/reuterssubscribe
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A Colossal Failure Of Presidential Leadership

13 days ago

You probably already know we are not a big fan of President Trump here at GMM, not because we are Democrats or Republicans, liberal or conservative, but it is our vehement disgust over his incompetence.  Of course, the COVID pandemic is not his fault but he is fully responsible for the country’s abject and relative failure to contain and control it.
The data speak in the following charts.  What is stunning about the latest upsurge is that it excludes the crisis in New York city that dominated the numbers in the first wave.  There. Is. No Excuse!
Face Masks As A Political Symbol
Nothing so absurdly sums up more the President’s incompetence and gross negligence, which has caused tens of thousands of undue deaths and protraction of the health and economic crisis, than his mixed

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Biggest Losers In Social Media Ad Boycott

13 days ago

Great chart from Statista on which companies are at risk of getting hammered by social media ad boycotts.  GMM’s Coach C has been all over us about this one, and early,  selling and flagging the companies that will be hurt.

This is getting serious
A boycott of advertisers on social media is gaining momentum, and Facebook is the primary target. Marketers are expressing unease with how it handles misinformation and hate speech, including its permissive approach to problematic posts by President Trump.
Who’s doing what. The boycotts have followed a call by the advocacy group Stop Hate for Profit, which is keeping a running list of participating companies. Over the weekend, Starbucks and Diageo said they would pause advertising on all social media platforms. They’re among the

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QOTD: Religious Bad Men

16 days ago

QOTD:  Quote of the Day

“Of all bad men, religious bad men are the worst.” – C.S. Lewis
C.S. Lewis, the Oxford/Cambridge professor during World War II is a cult hero with white American evangelicals,  some of Trump’s strongest supporters.  He would be appalled at their behavior,  especially their anti-intellectualism and anti-science bias.
Myself, along with my 6 and 3-year old daughters, were in one of my best friend’s wedding at St. John’s Church the Sunday after September 11th, which led to this post,  My 9/11 Story — The Day History Changed. 

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Market Begins To Internalize Reality

17 days ago

Summary
The financial media is beginning assign blame to the recent stock market weakness to the spike in COVID cases and the potential for a November Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers of Congress
Nothing new to GMM as we have been on this early and stood alone
The stock market’s valuation is at a historical extreme
The stars are aligned for a nasty and protracted bear market. Timing is anyone’s guess
The Fed has created an asset scarcity induced stock market bubble, similar to the Beanie Baby bubble of the late 1990s
In graduate school,  Rudy Dornbush, Jacob Frankel, and Michael Mussa, all giants in the field of macro and international economics,  gave a seminar to our economics department.  I was invited to dinner with them along with the department’s

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Could Mounting Crises Sink Brazil’s Bolsonaro?

18 days ago

Even with a political career full of controversy and condemnation, Jair Bolsonaro built a new coalition of voters and won the Brazilian presidential election in a landslide. Now, he’ll need every bit of fervent support he’s gained as a cascade of political crises and one of the world’s worst coronavirus outbreaks threaten to sink his presidency.
#Brazil#Politics#BloombergProfiles ——-Like this video? Subscribe to Bloomberg on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/Bloomberg?sub_…

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Enough Of This Racist Nonsense!

18 days ago

We are reposting a piece we wrote two-years ago.
Ironically, when we were back on the east coast in August 2018, we told one of our friends Trump’s racist dog whistles and blatant racism would lead to riots in the American streets.  Well,  here we are.
The results of last night’s primaries led the Drudge Report to proclaim,

‘A genenational time bomb going off’

We also find it interesting Mike Huckabee — a so-called “Christian” minister —  took down his racist tweet and we had to go out and find it and paste it back into the post.    Nothing Christ-like about his post, by the way.
Originally Posted on June 24, 2018
We try to remain nonpartisan at the Global Macro Monitor,  have no problem taking shots at both parties, and, personally, are comfortable splitting tickets on an

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John Bolton Confirms What GMM Suspected All Along

24 days ago

Xi is playing that guy like a Stradivarius fiddle. – GMM, Oct 2019

John Bolton’s new book is now in the hands of journalists and the deets are beginning to leak out.  We state categorically GMM is not a big fan of Mr. Bolton or his neocon cabal.  He just seems like a guy that has never met a country he doesn’t want to bomb.
We were also very upset Bolton refused to testify during the impeachment trial, choosing, what we perceived, money over country by not offering up to the Senate jurors what he has just unloaded on the POTUS in his new book.
In hindsight, however, it probably wouldn’t have changed any votes, and the timing and release of the book now almost seals the fate of the President and his Senate Republican enablers’ for defeat in November.

That’s a good thing for the

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The United Socialist States of America (USSA)

27 days ago

You would think the Fed governors have a sense of the political problem they are creating themselves?  Pumping up the stock market while Main Street suffers is a recipe for sweeping changes to come in the Federal Reserve Act.  We have no doubt a People’s Quantitative Easing (QE) is coming.  We had a taste of it during the COVID crisis response   That is a direct credit by the Federal Reserve into individual checking accounts.
Not that we oppose it in political spirit but the economics will be a disaster over the long-term.  We can think of better ways to deal with the income and wealth distribution problem.

Prepare For A Massive Blue Tsumami

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Statista’s New Chart Looks Familiar

June 12, 2020

It makes us a little nervous when we see our ideas, opinions, and charts starting to be adopted as conventional wisdom.
A New Bull Market…In Bullshit
Though the cheerleaders are still preaching a new bull market, the only new bull market I can conceive of is one in FinMedia bullshit.
Seriously? Look at the chart?
The start of a new bull market at these valuations would be tantamount to a 95-year old woman having her first child. 
I guess it’s possible if her name is Sarah and married to a man named Abraham, coupled with a little divine intervention. 
As always, strong convictions held loosely, and we reserve the right to be wrong.

STOCK MARKET
Are We in a Stock Market Bubble?
by Felix Richter,

Jun 11, 2020
Jun 11, 2020

Seemingly defying all that‘s going on in the United

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