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EconMatters

We, at EconMatters believe what investors and intellectual readers need is a place to find real deep insight and research into significant market events. For that vision, EconMatters.com does research, analysis, and writes articles devoted to the discussion of important economic and market specific issues relevant to our readers and global strategic investing.

Articles by EconMatters

No – The Oil Market Is Not Fixed! (Video)

March 7, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the API Report, and what it means for the Oil Market on Wednesday in this video. We blow through the previous Record High Oil Storage Levels Tomorrow!

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Two Thirds of Dow 30 Stocks in a Revenue Recession (Video)

March 5, 2017

By EconMatters

We go over the Dow 30 Industrial Stocks Income Statements and review their revenue growth or decline over the last 3 years in this video. The firms that have positive revenue growth, most of those are just barely positive over three years. Moreover, the energy sector is down almost 50% in revenues over three years, and CAT`s revenue decline is staggering given the opposite move in the stock`s direction. This market is in a massive QE inspired Bubble, and this is why the Federal Reserve is raising rates next week ahead of the Market`s expectations. They now realize the stock market is in bubble territory, and risks of a market destabilizing crash are greater than ever before right now.

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This Is How You Juice Up Stocks (Video)

February 27, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the 11:00 am (CST) move in Bonds, Equities, Gold, VIX, and the Currency Markets in this video. It all starts with cheap Central Bank Money! Are these the kinds of incentives Central Banks should be allowed to let happen by creating excessive leverage with borrowed money to juice of bigger stock market bubbles? Central Banks need to be aware of the financial system risk that their extreme policies are leading to in Financial Markets. Janet Yellen, this is not what I want occurring in Financial Markets, this is not the role of Central Banks. Did we not learning anything from the 2008 financial crisis? You know this is unsustainable right? This ends the same way every time in a Financial Market Crash!

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More Oil Production and Weakening Gasoline Demand – Oil Market Still in Denial

February 26, 2017

By EconMatters

 
We discuss the oil market in a comprehensive manner in this video, and lay out why the economics of the oil market are not correctly aligned right now. The world Oil Market was not set up for both the Middle East and the United States to be pumping at Record Levels!

 

Conclusion:

All we have done is kicked the can down the road a little further just like all the other half measures governments, agencies, industries, companies and financial markets do to avoid facing the nasty, hard reality that ultimately will have to be addressed where people take haircuts, lose money, and real pain is felt.

The oil market is not fixed, we have made no progress whatsoever is addressing the poor fundamentals of the oversupply of the product versus the global demand for the product. This is basic economic theory: Oil prices need to go down further and stay there until oil producers stop producing oil and go out of business in the free market producing countries.

Lifting of US exports and OPEC short term cuts are only delaying the inevitable, because global demand is not going to be robust enough for the world oil producers to all stay in business, and we "grow" into a supply/demand oil market balance scenario. At least not in the next five years.

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The Short of a Lifetime (Video)

February 11, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the biggest short in the history of Financial Markets in this video. We lay out the entire trade for you as an investor. This is a rather long video, we discuss all aspects of this trading setup in a comprehensive narrative analysis. This is not a trivial matter.

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Oil Market Still Not Balanced After OPEC Production Cuts

February 8, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the EIA Oil Report data in this video, and it appears that we are going to set another all-time record high for Oil held in storage again this year. In fact at the current pace we are going to blow through that previous record of 510 Million Barrels of Oil stored in private reserve facilities. It appears we are on track to hit 550 million barrels of oil in storage by May of this year.
OPEC Production cuts also appear meaningless, as we are building at the same pace as this time a year ago in the oil markets. What a difference a year makes, as we have more supply than last year, and we are double the price from a year ago. The difference in gasoline demand is simple higher prices mean lower consumption, this is simple economics at work in a country where most consumers are broke paying their damn cell phone and cable bills each month.
Oil should be much lower based upon the current fundamentals, but this never ceases to amaze me how manipulated all markets are for the 15 years I have been involved with them. But the manipulation of the oil market just prolongs the inevitable rebalancing process, nobody has still yet to go out of business in the oil markets. Until this happens the oil markets will never be rebalanced; again pure economics at work.

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The Swiss National Bank Is Acting Like A Hedge Fund

February 6, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the fact that Central Banks have basically morphed into Hedge Funds with similar risky investing strategies, except they buy without any regard to the underlying fundamentals of the assets they are buying. When did the Swiss Citizens say it was the proper role for the Swiss National Bank to be buying US Stocks? How is this stimulating the Swiss Economy? Central Banks have really gone off the rails with regards to their Monetary Policy Tools.
This is clearly exemplified in what the Swiss National Bank is currently doing in financial markets, these bizarre overstretch of policies put the entire financial system at risk, and have resulted in massive stock market bubbles around the world. These Central Banks are not even investing based upon company fundamentals, just trying to square account imbalances in what has become the race to the bottom in the Currency Wars! We need to start having hearings on these matters because Central Banks have morphed into Risky Hedge Funds, well beyond their intended purpose of managing interest rates in the course of normal business cycles.

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Mario Draghi Has An Inflation Problem (Video)

February 5, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the fact that Euro Area Inflation is spiking, as is inflation around the globe, as the consequences of artificially low interest rates start coming to the forefront in this video. We believe given that the ECB`s only chartered mandate is keeping a lid on inflation; forget tapering the ECB needs to start raising interest rates.

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Republicans Will Get Slaughtered in 2018 Midterm Elections

January 30, 2017

By EconMatters

If Elections were held tomorrow, The Democrats would win the Presidential election and the Senate for sure, and maybe even the House of Representatives; it is going to be brutal for Republicans come Midterm Elections. Donald Trump is even hurting the business community with his policy initiatives.
Donald Trump will be slowly isolated in Washington and be a lame duck President in two years, most of the stuff Donald Trump blusters about will never see the light of day. The Global Economy will be in recession, and although he will not have caused it directly, he sure will not have helped the situation with his extreme policy approach, and ultimately he will serve as the easy scapegoat for laying the blame.
At this rate, even the business community will be tired of his dictatorial act, and multiple groups will band together and take him down. He will probably be the most impotent President serving out the last couple years of his term, that`s if he isn`t outright impeached before then. Things are going to get rather ugly given his incompetent cabinet makeup these four years; things are not shaping up good for financial markets and the Global Economy under Donald Trump. Financial Market Participants could not have gotten this more wrong after the election.
They are so completely off sides and unprepared for what is to follow over the next four years.

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Oil and Petroleum Product Inventories Worse Than Last Year (Video)

January 25, 2017

By EconMatters

We examine the EIA Data this past week, and it is interesting what a difference a year makes psychologically speaking as we have more inventories in storage across the board yet we are almost double the oil price versus this time last year in $53 a barrel versus $26 a barrel. There is a lot of Fantasy Land Thinking Going On in Financial Markets Right Now!

 

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BUBBLE

January 25, 2017

By EconMatters

We look through the history of market bubbles in this video to illustrate what happens to investors every time this tragedy occurs. The Fed Better Raise Rates Real Fast, And In 50 Basis Point Chunks!

 

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When Will Janet Yellen Realize The Fed Is Behind The Bubble Curve? (Video)

January 24, 2017

By EconMatters

At what point will Janet Yellen realize that Financial Markets are screaming at her that she is so far behind the bubble curve, that we are at Tulip Market Level Status for Behind the Curve Territory? It is obvious that there is too much cheap money sloshing around the Financial System right now!
The entire Financial System is at Risk Right Now because of Clueless Central Banks who have no idea the Monster they have Created with This Latest Asset Price Bubble! Really Janet, You Still Don`t Believe That You Are Behind The Curve?
It is time to go back to the normal historical levels for interest rates, there never was a "new normal" this was just patently wrong. We wouldn`t have this level of a bubble in stocks if there was a new normal. It is the same as it always has been, if you lower interest rates for a decade, you will create asset bubbles, that cause the next financial market crisis just like in 2000, 2008, and 2017.
I would start with a 50 basis point rate hike on February 1st to get the Market`s attention Janet Yellen. But the longer you continue to deny that the Fed is behind the Rate Hiking Curve, the Bigger the Market Dislocation when the Crash Inevitably occurs.

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The Oil Production Cuts Are Purely Symbolic Marketing Trickery (Video)

January 22, 2017

By EconMatters

The OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production cuts are actually a joke in the bigger scheme of things, the oil markets have been over supplied for a decade. The Market`s self serving definition of a balanced oil market is complete nonsense on a larger macro view of the market.
There is a reason the 5-year averages for oil stocks have been rising every year I have been trading the oil market. It isn`t a coincidental indicator that more oil storage facilities are being built or expanded every year for the last 15 years of the modern electronic oil markets.
There is so much oil and derivative oil products in storage on a global calculus, that it is a joke if OPEC thinks they have cut enough to actually long term balance the oil markets.
In addition they are delusional if they think a little six month seasonal pullback in production is going to do anything other than artificially set the oil market up for the next leg back down in the second half of 2017.

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The Copper Market Relative to Gold, Equities, Dollar (Video)

January 14, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the Copper Market in this video, checking out its trading partners in the other Futures Markets, as well as the recent Technical and Fundamental drivers for this economic sensitive commodity. Copper is used as Collateral in China for borrowing purposes and serves a leveraging function at times.

 

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Expect Test of 2200 over Next Two Weeks (Video)

January 13, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the two obvious markets bubbles in the FTSE and Nasdaq, and do some general market commentary in this video. Amazon and Facebook are going to get slaughtered from these levels on earning`s reports.

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Nothing Has Really Changed in the Oil Market Since the 2014 Crash (Video)

January 7, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the EIA Weekly Oil Report, check out the Futures Market, and discuss the longer term outlook for the market given mature and declining demand in the developed world, massive supply potential to come to market, Electric Vehicle adoption, and slumping global demand due to the end of the current business cycle, and potential global recession over the next 16 months.
When consumers had the lowest gasoline prices since 2004 and Electric Vehicles had their best year yet, and Ford and Mercedes both have a fleet of new Electric Vehicles planned for production over the next two years, the Oil Market may be in a longer term secular downtrend with lower highs and lower lows being established over the next decade.

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The Entire Retail Sector is a Short (Video)

January 4, 2017

By EconMatters

The Retail Stocks are going to get obliterated come Earning`s Period in a couple of weeks, especially the Brick & Mortar Retail Stocks. I expect Sears Holdings to declare Bankruptcy officially within two years!

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Housing Market Analysis 1-1-2017 (Video)

January 1, 2017

By EconMatters

We discuss the Housing Market in this video by looking through a bunch of data, and possible future drivers for the Market both to the upside and downside. I have mixed emotions about the Housing Market in general.

 

 

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EconMatters Viewer Questions 1-1-2017 (Video)

January 1, 2017

By EconMatters

We go over some viewer questions that we received regarding financial markets over the last week in this video. The S&P 500 is the instrument you want to trade versus the Dow instrument, it provides for a balanced view of the financial market universe. Trading the Russell 2000 because you recognize a rotational play within markets is a different story, and in a big Risk-Off selloff the Nasdaq and the small caps will experience greater losses and vice versa in a Risk-On move to the upside, keep that in mind. But if you just have a general view on the markets play the S&P 500, it will spread your risk profile in a more balanced manner. Plus it provides the best liquidity for market participants.

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ETFs versus Active Investing Debate (Video)

December 23, 2016

By EconMatters

We delve into the debate with our take on the downside of passive investing in ETFs, this exacerbates volatility in markets. The main difference is that we had mutual funds and then stock picking, now we have mutual funds, and ETFs, with very little stock picking in financial asset evaluation.
This in and of itself is a very bad practice for many reasons that I will avoid discussing here, but mainly every asset should be independently analyzed thoroughly. This basically means that financial markets have been reduced to fund flow investing, the degree to which this is Ponzi scheme musical chair gambling seems less destructive as long as assets are moving up, but when the worm turns which this very style of investing makes an absolute certainty, it not only destroys capital forever, it destabilizes financial markets in the process, and in essence breaks financial markets.
When the ZIRP Central Bank inspired Stock Market Bubble bursts ETFs will get their fair share of the blame for capital destroying practices, and bad investment decisions made on the behalf of market participants. Investment Capital is going to be destroyed like never before in the history of financial markets when the bubble bursts, and those in ETFs on average will lose far more than active managers, or even average stock pickers.

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Run Like Hell from Analyst Upgrades of Stocks Last 2 Weeks of Year (Video)

December 20, 2016

By EconMatters

Always be suspicious of analyst upgrades the last two weeks of the year during an x-mas rally, call bullshit on most of these year end stock manipulation calls. Don`t be a sucker and a bagholder for somebody else`s stupidity! Where were these "analysts" 200 plus percent ago with their buy recommendations and stock upgrades?
The analysts at big banks are scumbags of the highest order, and basically the pimps of the industry. You will catch a lot more than some obscure disease with some of these "dogshit" stocks, you will lose your shirt in some of these momentum hedge fund ramps, and be the sucker they offload these bullshit moves and stocks to, and no amount of penicillin will take the pain away of these stocks losing money in your portfolio year after year.

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January 2017 Earnings Is Going To Be a Bloodbath

December 17, 2016

By EconMatters

We discuss a preview of January`s Earnings releases and how massive the gap down in most of these stocks will be when they report in a month. There have already been two earning`s guide downs from industrial companies this past week in UTX, and HON.
But with the run up in financials and energies for the last month we are going to experience big $5 chunks taken out of these stocks and massive after hours and pre-market gap downs that will cause entire sectors to sell off during earnings in January. It is just going to be brutal, expect 500 point down days in the Dow during this upcoming earnings period.
You have seasonal stocks that selloff every year like Apple and Amazon, as the 4th quarter is their best by far for sales and revenues. And you have energy companies with exorbitant p/e ratios like COP, XOM, CVH that are priced for $115 dollar oil not $55 oil that 4th quarter earnings releases are going to bring some fundamental realities back to investors of how overpriced these stocks are right here.

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Home Flipping Reality Shows Misrepresent the Risks Involved in Real Estate Investing (Video)

December 15, 2016

By EconMatters

We delve into the world of Reality Television meets Home Flipping for a business venture, and how these reality shows often glamorize and gloss over the inherent risks involved in home flipping. Real Estate Flipping works until it doesn`t, and when it doesn`t finances and holding costs often spiral out of control leaving the flippers bankrupt in the end.

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Anybody That Buys Stocks at Dow 20,000 Should Be Fired (Video)

December 14, 2016

By EconMatters

The cheerleading of Dow 20,000 is just sickening, I have never seen such bragging about making stupid decisions in financial markets. You will be a much smarter investor by turning off CNBC and the likes of Dennis Gartman`s investment philosophy on how to lose money in the market. There is nothing remotely watchable on CNBC anymore, except for American Greed which can maybe prevent people from being such fools with their hard earned money.

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The Carry Trade and The Fed Rate Hike This Week (Video)

December 11, 2016

By EconMatters

We discuss the important event of the week in the Federal Reserve Meeting on Wednesday and its effects on the Carry Trade which has been so pivotal in this rally up in stocks. Do we get a buy the rumor and sell the news event, or does the US Dollar take the next leg up after the Fed Quarterly FOMC Meeting? And at what point does the strong US Dollar start negatively impacting US Multi-National companies from an Earning`s standpoint? Big week for currency traders this FOMC Meeting week!

 

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These Cabinet Picks Illustrate that Trump is Way Over His Head as President (Video)

December 10, 2016

By EconMatters

We discuss the fact that Donald Trump is too incompetent to realize that he has no business picking his own cabinet, you won the lottery, now outsource the job of picking a cabinet to Paul Ryan or someone in the Republican Party who understands basic qualifications for these important positions in the United States Government. Was Pee-wee Herman unavailable for Secretary of State?

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Just Remember: Happiness Can Never Buy Money!

November 20, 2016

By EconMatters

We delve into just how clueless Silicon Valley is with regard to Politics and Money, and that false notion of making a difference in the world as primary motivation. It is always about the Money, don`t kid yourself!

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The Copper Market Has Exploded (Video)

November 8, 2016

By EconMatters

You know you have a hot market when the market is going higher even while I am making this video, the copper market is on fire on changing economic sentiment regarding China. If the Fed is going to run inflation hot for 2017, then Copper is going much higher!

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Verizon, Bait and Switch Is NOT Nice

November 5, 2016

By EconMatters
 

EconMatters is a financial and investing site, but we do occasionally write about improper practices we observed or experienced in Corporate America, the job market, or in a regular consumer business like Favor Delivery, Comcast Cable (Nasdaq: CMCSA), or Fandango. In doing so, we also received a few reader comments to stop ‘whining’ and just ‘suck it up’.  

Sorry to disappoint but EconMatters still believes ‘Doing the Right Thing’ is important regardless of the actual monetary amount involved.  If we simply ‘suck it up’, the United States would still be part of Britain.  

 

Today, I’m going to talk about a personal saga of ‘Bait and Switch’ by Verizon (NYSE: VZ).    

 

Too Good to Be True?

 

I have two cell phone lines (on a Shared Plan) with Verizon for about three years now. Six months ago, i.e., in May 2016, I upgraded both of my phones to a newer model at a Verizon store.  The store sales person verbally told me my two lines qualify for an additional Verizon promotion of waived 2nd line access fee ($20 per month) for 12 months.  The sales person even talked to his manager on the phone in front of me to verify and confirm that I qualified for the discount.

 

I was on the fence about upgrading both phones at the same time due to the cost factor, while still evaluating options from other cell carriers.

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How to Play the VIX (Video)

November 5, 2016

By EconMatters

We discuss some ways to play the VIX around the Presidential Election event in this video. It is never the end of the world even if Donald Trump should pull an upset this election.

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