Friday , July 19 2019
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Holds Firm in July”

3 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 65 is up 1 from last month.

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Retail Sales: Up 0.43% in June, at 3.4% YoY

3 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for June was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.4% month-over-month to one decimal and was better than the Investing.com forecast of 0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.35% MoM (to two decimals).

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World Markets Update

3 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through July 15, 2019. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a 20.09% gain and in second is China’s Shanghai SSE with a gain of 19.34%. In third is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 18.95%. Coming in last is Tokyo’s Nikkei with a gain of 8.35%.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 3.3%

3 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are up four and three cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.72 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.39. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 59.58, up 3.3% from this time last week and a 23% increase since the beginning of the year.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Modest Rebound in July

4 days ago

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 4.3 was an increase of 12.9 from the previous month’s -8.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 1.6.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Over 3000

6 days ago

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The S&P started the week below its record high only to jump mid-week amid news of a potential interest rate cut. The index is up over 20% YTD, up 0.78% from last week and has reached a record-breaking 3,013.77

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

6 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.2, up 1.0 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -2.12%, up from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -1.24, also up from the previous week.

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June Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.3 MoM

7 days ago

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Today’s release of the June Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, unchanged from last month. It is at 1.7% year-over-year, down from 1.8% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% the previous month and is unchanged YoY NSA at 2.3%. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.1% headline and 0.2% core.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

7 days ago

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.65%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and slightly below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.67%.

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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components

7 days ago

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Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

7 days ago

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Q1 Household Net Worth: The “Real” Story

8 days ago

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The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 60.7% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q1 net worth is up 4.2% from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year-over-year.

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Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 1.65%

8 days ago

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.65%, down from 1.79% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.13%, up from the previous month’s 1.99% and above the Fed’s 2% PCE target.

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Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

8 days ago

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We’ve created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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U.S. Workforce Recovery

8 days ago

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We’ve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday’s Employment Report for June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 224K.

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Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

9 days ago

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday’s Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

9 days ago

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

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Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades of Trends as of June

9 days ago

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At present, multiple jobholders account for just 5.1 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we’ve illustrated in a pie chart.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Slight Bounceback

10 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are up three and two cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.74 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.33. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 57.66, down 2.4% from this time last week and a 19% increase since the beginning of the year.

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