Thursday , April 25 2019
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

World Markets Update

1 day ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.45%.

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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture

2 days ago

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The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-February, are now available.

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Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

2 days ago

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.8% (+4.5 billion vehicle miles) for January 2019 as compared with January 2018. Travel for the month is estimated to be 250.1 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and up 0.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up 0.38% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Moderate Growth in April

2 days ago

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Fifth District manufacturing activity moderated in April, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for the third component index, employment. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the next six months.

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FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.3% in January, At Real Record High

2 days ago

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for February. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 4.9% (nonseasonally adjusted). After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.17% in January and up 4.28% year-over-year. The inflation-adjusted index is at its all-time high.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 2.6%

2 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are up one and three cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.02 and Alabama has the cheapest at $2.49. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 65.55, a 2.6% increase from this time last week and a 35% increase since the beginning of the year.

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Understanding the CFNAI Components

3 days ago

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The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Production and Income
Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
Personal Consumption and Housing
Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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Existing-Home Sales Rebounded Retreated in March

3 days ago

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This morning’s release of the March Existing-Home Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million units from the previous month’s revised 5.48M. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.30 million. The latest number represents an 11.8% increase from the previous month and an 0.5% decrease year-over-year.

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New Residential Housing Starts Down Again in March

3 days ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for March new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.139M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.230M and a decrease from the previous month’s revised 1.142M.

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New Residential Building Permits: 1.269M in March

3 days ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for March new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.269M was a decrease from 1.291M in February and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.300M.

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Chicago Fed: Picked Up in March

3 days ago

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"Index points to a pickup in economic growth in March." Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.15 in March from –0.31 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.24 in March from –0.18 in February.

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The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Real Retail Sales

6 days ago

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Note: With the release of March Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we’ve updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 1.6% (1.57% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 1.15%.

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January Retail Sales: 1.57% Jump in March

6 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for March was released this morning. HHeadline sales came in at 1.6% month-over-month to one decimal and was better than the Investing.com forecast of 0.9%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.17% MoM (to two decimals).

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Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: March 2019 Update

7 days ago

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We’ve updated this series to include the March release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the March monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,159, down 11.5% from 45-plus years ago.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLI YoY Approaching Positive

7 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.1, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.25%, up from last week and its highest in 22 weeks. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 1.24, also up from the previous week.

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Continued Growth in April

7 days ago

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 8.5, down 5.2 from last month’s 13.7. The 3-month moving average came in at 6.0, down from 8.9 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 19.1, down from the previous month’s 21.8.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update

7 days ago

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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February Trade Deficit at $49.385B, Better Than Forecast

8 days ago

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today’s headline number of -49.38B was better than the Investing.com forecast of -53.50B.

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February Trade Deficit at $49.38B, Better Than Forecast

8 days ago

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today’s headline number of -49.38B was better than the Investing.com forecast of -53.50B.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Edges Higher in April”

9 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 63 is up 1 from last month.

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World Markets Update

9 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 15, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 28.9% gain and in second is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a gain of 18.62%. In third is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 17.47%. Coming in last is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 8.40%.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular Up Eight Cents

9 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are up eight and nine cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.00 and Alabama has the cheapest at $2.49. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 63.89, a 0.8% decrease from this time last week and a 32% increase since the beginning of the year.

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