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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

1 day ago

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -0.3% (-0.9 billion vehicle miles) for June 2019 as compared with June 2018. Travel for the month is estimated to be 279.7 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and up 0.6% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is down 0.09% month-over-month and up 0.1% year-over-year.

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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

1 day ago

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The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 653 BPs to 2.02% as of the July 31 close.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

1 day ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is currently at 144.0, down 1.6 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.51%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -0.54, down from the previous week.

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New Residential Building Permits: 1.336M in July

1 day ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for July new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.336M was an increase from 1.232M in June and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.257M.

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New Residential Housing Starts Down in July

1 day ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for July new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.191 was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.257M and a decrease from the previous month’s revised 1.241M.

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Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.01%

2 days ago

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Let’s take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended August 15, 2019, at 1.59%, the yield on the 2-year note is 1.58% and the 30-year mortgage rate is at 3.60%.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Trending Higher as Interest Rates Move Lower”

2 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 66 is up 1 from last month.

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Retail Sales: Up 0.7% in July, at 3.4% YoY

2 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for July was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.7% month-over-month to one decimal and was better than the Investing.com forecast of 0.3%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.02% MoM (to two decimals).

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Continued Growth in August

2 days ago

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 16.8, down 5.0 from last month’s 21.8. The 3-month moving average came in at 13.0, up from 12.9 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 32.6, down 5.4 from the previous month’s 38.0.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 9K

2 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 220K new claims, up 9K from the previous week’s revised 211K, was above the Investing.com forecast of 214K.

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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components

3 days ago

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Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

3 days ago

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

3 days ago

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released yesterday morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.81%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.71%.

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Consumer Price Index: July Headline at 1.81%

3 days ago

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.81%, up from 1.65% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.21%, up from the previous month’s 2.13% and above the Fed’s 2% PCE target.

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World Markets Update

5 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through August 12, 2019. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a 14.85% gain and in second is China’s Shanghai SSE with a gain of 14.18%. In third is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 13.24%. Coming in last is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a gain of 2.76%.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Some Gains, Up 16.4% YTD

8 days ago

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The S&P ended the week down 0.46% from last Friday, which is a slight bounceback from the previous week of losses. The index is up 16.43% YTD and down 0.66% from yesterday.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

8 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is currently at 145.7, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.29%, fractionally down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.12, down from the previous week.

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July Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Down 0.1 MoM

8 days ago

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Today’s release of the July Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from 0.1% last month. It is at 1.7% year-over-year, unchanged from last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at -0.1% MoM, down from 0.3% the previous month and is unchanged YoY NSA at 2.1%. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 8K

9 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 209K new claims, down 8K from the previous week’s revised 217K, was below the Investing.com forecast of 215K.

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