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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Moving Averages: S&P Up 2.3% in July

3 days ago

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Valid until the market close on August 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 2.27% after a gain of 2.22% in June. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, all five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — up from last month’s quadruple "invested" signal.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Down 5% From June

3 days ago

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The July Final came in at 81.2, down 4.3 (5.0%) from the June Final. Investing.com had forecast 80.8. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 5.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 4.7 percent below the geometric mean.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

3 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 153.9, down 0.8 from the previous week’s revised figure. The WLIg is at 11.1, also down from last week and the WLI YoY is at 16.54%, down from last week.

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Chicago PMI Jumped in July

3 days ago

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 73.4 in July from 66.1 in June, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita in June Down 0.6%, Revisions Made

3 days ago

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With the release of this morning’s report on June’s Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.04% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.55% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month’s -2.74% nominal and -3.33% real decreases. The year-over-year metrics are 0.46% nominal and -3.41% real.

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The Big Four: Real Personal Income in June

3 days ago

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Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA’s PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.

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PCE Price Index: June Core at 3.5% YoY

3 days ago

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The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for June was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.51% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 3.99% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is now at 3.54%, above the Fed’s 2% target rate. Revisions were made.

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An Inside Look at the GDP Q2 Advance Estimate

4 days ago

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The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Pending Home Sales Down Marginally in June

4 days ago

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Today the National Association of Realtors released the June data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales declined marginally in June after recording a notable gain in May."

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Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Inches Up To 6.5%

4 days ago

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The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.5% (6.50% to two decimal places), an increase from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 8.5%.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 24K

4 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 400K new claims, down 24K from the previous week’s revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 380K.

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The “Real” Goods on the June Durable Goods Data

5 days ago

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The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.

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July Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview

5 days ago

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Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for July is 30, up from the previous month.

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Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Back Up 8.4%

6 days ago

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As of July 26, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and one cent, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.31 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.75. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.91, up 8.4% from last week and up 51% from the beginning of the year.

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FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.7% in May, All Time High

6 days ago

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. U.S. house prices were up 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.9% in May and up 11% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

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Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 0.8% in June

6 days ago

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The latest new orders number at 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) was worse than the Investing.com 2.1% estimate. The series is up 29.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.3% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.8%. The core measure is up 19.6% YoY.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Continued Strength in July

6 days ago

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Fifth District manufacturing activity showed continued growth in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 27 from 26 in June and indicates expansion.

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Home Ownership Rate: 65.6% in Q2 2021

6 days ago

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q2 2021.

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World Markets Update: July 26, 2021

7 days ago

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Six out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through July 26, 2021. The top performer is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 18.5%, our own S&P 500 is in second is with a gain of 17.7%, and Germany’s DAKX is in third with a gain of 11.2%. Coming in last is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a loss of 3.8%.

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July Dallas Fed Manufacturing

7 days ago

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This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for July. The latest general business activity index came in at 27.3, down 3.8 from 31.1 in June. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

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New Home Sales Down 6.6% in June

7 days ago

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This morning’s release of the June New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 676K, down 6.6% month-over-month from a revised 724K in May. The Investing.com forecast was for 800K. The median home price is now at $361.8K.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Soaring

10 days ago

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The S&P 500 dropped upon open on Monday only to spend the rest of the week rising. The index ended the week at another record high, up four out of five days. It is up 1% from Thursday and up 17.5% YTD.

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CFNAI Components: Employment, Production, Consumption, Sales

10 days ago

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The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Production and Income
Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
Personal Consumption and Housing
Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

10 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 154.8, down 2.3 from the previous week’s revised figure. The WLIg is at 12.7, also down from last week and the WLI YoY is at 17.46%, down from last week.

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