Saturday , October 31 2020
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Weekly Gasoline Price Update

4 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down two and one cent, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.15 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $1.79. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 38.56, down 2.2% from last week.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Strengthened in October

4 days ago

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Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 29 in October from 21 in September.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Continues Record Climb”

4 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 85 is up 2 from last month’s 83 and at its highest level in the indicator’s history, exceeding its December 1998 record.

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FHFA House Price Index: Up 2.6% in August

4 days ago

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for August. U.S. house prices were up 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 7.9% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.84% in August and up 7.7% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

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Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 1.9% in September

4 days ago

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The latest new orders number at 1.9% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 0.5% estimate. The series is down 1.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.8% MoM, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. The core measure is up 1.7% YoY.

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CFNAI Components: Employment, Production, Consumption, Sales

4 days ago

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The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Production and Income
Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
Personal Consumption and Housing
Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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America’s Driving Habits as of August 2020

4 days ago

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -12.3% (-35.3 billion vehicle miles) for August 2020 as compared with August 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 251.3 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 1.1% month-over-month and down 8.8% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 1.19% month-over-month and down 9.9% year-over-year.

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October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Shows Expansion

5 days ago

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This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for October. The latest general business activity index came in at 19.8, up 6.2 from 13.6 in September. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

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New Home Sales Down 3.5% in September

5 days ago

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This morning’s release of the September New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 959K, down 3.5% month-over-month from a revised 994K in August. The Investing.com forecast was for 1.025M.

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Chicago Fed: “Index suggests slower, but still above-average growth in September”

5 days ago

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Led by some further moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in September from +1.11 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but three of the four categories decreased from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +1.33 in September from +3.22 in August.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 7.8% YTD

14 days ago

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The S&P 500 ended the week up just 19 basis points from last Friday and is up 7.83% YTD. The index is 2.7% below its record close.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

15 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 139.0 up 0.2 from the previous week. The WLIg is at 3.6, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.31, also up from last week.

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Retail Sales Up 1.9% in September, Better Than Forecast

15 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for September was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 1.9% month-over-month to one decimal and was above the Investing.com forecast of 0.7%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.5% MoM.

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Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Picked Up in October

16 days ago

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 15, down 2.2 from last month’s 17.2. The 3-month moving average came in at 18.8, down from 21.0 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 56.6, up 17.8 from the previous month’s 38.8.

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Empire State Mfg Survey: Modest Expansion in October

16 days ago

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 10.5 was a decrease of 6.5 from the previous month’s 17.0. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 15.0.

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September Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.4% MoM

16 days ago

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Yesterday’s release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.3% increase last month. It is at 0.4% year-over-year, up from -0.2% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 1.2% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.

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Inside the Consumer Price Index: September 2020

17 days ago

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

17 days ago

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released yesterday morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 0.99%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update

17 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are unchanged from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.19 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $1.83. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 39.43, up 0.5% from last week.

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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components

17 days ago

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Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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Middle-Class Wages: September 2020 Update

18 days ago

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We’ve updated this series to include the September release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $42,267, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago.

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