Thursday , November 21 2019
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

New Residential Housing Starts Inch Up in October

1 day ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.314M was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 1.320M and a slight increase from the previous month’s revised 1.266M.

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New Residential Building Permits: 1.461M in October

2 days ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.461M was an increase from 1.391M in September and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.385M.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down

2 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down two and three cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.93 and Louisiana has the cheapest at $2.15. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 57.14, up 0.6% from last week and an 18% increase since the beginning of the year.

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World Markets Update

2 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 18, 2019. The top performer is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 26.45% and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 24.38%. In third is Germany’s DAXK with a gain of 20.95%. Coming in last is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a gain of 6.17%.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November”

2 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 70 is up 1 from last month.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

5 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.2, up 0.6 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -0.24%, up from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.36, up from the previous week.

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Retail Sales: Up 0.26% in October

5 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for October was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.26% month-over-month to one decimal and was above the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.20% MoM (to two decimals).

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Weekly Heating Oil Prices

6 days ago

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.99. Residential heating oil supplies are 9.0% below their all-time low.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

6 days ago

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released yesterday morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.76%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.77%.

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October Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.4% MoM

6 days ago

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Today’s release of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from -0.3% last month. It is at 1.1% year-over-year, down from 1.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.3% MoM, up from -0.3% the previous month and is up 1.6% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3% headline and 0.2% core.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 14K

6 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 225K new claims, up 14K from the previous week’s 211K, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 215K.

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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components

7 days ago

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Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

7 days ago

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Consumer Price Index: October Headline at 1.76%

8 days ago

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.76%, up from 1.71% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.31%, down from the previous month’s 2.36% and above the Fed’s 2% PCE target.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Up a Penny

8 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down a penny each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.01 and Louisiana has the cheapest at $2.16. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 56.80, up 0.5% from last Monday and a 17% increase since the beginning of the year.

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World Markets Update

9 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 11, 2019. The top performer is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 25.68% and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 22.99%. In third is Germany’s DAXK with a gain of 20.87%. Coming in last is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a gain of 7.15%.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

12 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.7, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -0.85%, up from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -0.31, up from the previous week.

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The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

13 days ago

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Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,5968 for an annualized real return of 9.40%.

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