Thursday , November 15 2018
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Underlying Inflation Gauge: Data Delays

18 hours ago

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Economists at the NY Federal Reserve Bank introduced a new measure of trend inflation in September 2017, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG), meant to complement the current standard measures. Investors and policymakers alike have an interest in the behavior of inflation over longer time periods. The latest full set UIG for October is 3.07% while the prices-only measure is 2.00%. Current Headline CPI is now 2.52% and Core CPI is 2.14%.

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Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: October 2018 Update

23 hours ago

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We’ve updated this series to include this morning’s release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the October monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,570, down 12.3% from 45-plus years ago.

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What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

24 hours ago

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Consumer Price Index: October Headline at 2.52%

1 day ago

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.52%, up from 2.28% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.14%, down from the previous month’s 2.17% and above the Fed’s 2% PCE target.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down Sixth Consecutive Week

2 days ago

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It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are down seven and six cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.83 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.29. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 55.69, an 11.7% decrease from this time last week and its sixth in a row.

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World Markets Update

3 days ago

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Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 12, 2018. The top performer this year is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.96%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 1.97%. In third is Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2.17%. Coming in last is Shanghai’s SSE with a loss of 20.46%.

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2018 Update: Median Home Price and Salary Required in 25 Major Cities

3 days ago

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is: "How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 2.1% from Last Friday

6 days ago

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The S&P 500 climbed through the middle of the week, only to come down a bit on Friday. The index closed up 2.13% from last Friday, but down 0.92% from yesterday (Thursday). It is up 1% YTD.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLIg at -2.6

6 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.0, down from the previous week’s 146.1. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 0.19%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -2.64, also down from the previous week.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update

6 days ago

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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October Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM

6 days ago

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Today’s release of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last month’s 0.2%. It is at 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.5% MoM, up from 0.2% the previous month and is up 2.6% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.

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Household Incomes: The Decline of the “Middle Class” 2017 Update

7 days ago

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let’s take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau’s latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we’ll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau’s annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2017.

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The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update

7 days ago

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The Philly Fed’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims

7 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 214K new claims, down 1K from the previous week’s revised figure, was at the Investing.com forecast of 214K.

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Weekly Heating Oil Prices

8 days ago

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $3.35, down two cents from last week and up 6 cents since the beginning of the season.

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U.S. Workforce Recovery

8 days ago

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We’ve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday’s Employment Report for October. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 250K.

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Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

8 days ago

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday’s Employment Report. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

8 days ago

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We’ve created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present. What we see is essentially the "Boomer Bulge" in employment across time. Those born between 1946 and 1964 continue to grow the employment of the two oldest cohorts. It will be interesting to see how long those two trends continue.

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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

9 days ago

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The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 177 BPs to 3.14% as of the October 26th close.

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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

9 days ago

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

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Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades of Trends as of October

9 days ago

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What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 5.2 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we’ve illustrated in a pie chart.

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Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle

9 days ago

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The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through September, is now available. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939, while the BLS began tracking JOLTS in December 2000.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down Again

10 days ago

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It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are down six and five cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.85 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.39. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 63.10, a 5.9% decrease from this time last week and its fifth in a row.

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