Thursday , May 23 2019
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Kansas City Fed Survey: Modest Growth in May

3 hours ago

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The latest index came in at 4, down from 5 last month, which indicates that activity expanded in April. The future outlook increased to 12 from 11 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. New seasonal adjustment factors were incorporated, which adjusted historical indexes and will be used moving forward.

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New Home Sales Down 6.9% in April

4 hours ago

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This morning’s release of the April New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 673K, down 6.9% month-over-month from a revised 723K in March.

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Understanding the CFNAI Components

1 day ago

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The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Production and Income
Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
Personal Consumption and Housing
Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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Chicago Fed: “Index points to slower economic growth in April”

1 day ago

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"Index points to slower economic growth in April." Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in April from +0.05 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.32 in April from –0.24 in March.

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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture

2 days ago

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The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-March, are now available.

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Existing-Home Sales Down Again in April

2 days ago

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This morning’s release of the April Existing-Home Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million units from the previous month’s 5.21M. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.35 million. The latest number represents an 0.4% decrease from the previous month and a 4.4% decrease year-over-year.

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World Markets Update

3 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China’s Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain and in second is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in last is Tokyo’s Nikkei with a gain of 6.43%.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down a Penny

3 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down a penny each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.02 and Louisiana has the cheapest at $2.42. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 63.21, a 3.6% increase from this time last week and a 30% increase since the beginning of the year.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

6 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.7, down 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.84%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.25, also down from the previous week.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update

6 days ago

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Real Retail Sales

7 days ago

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Note: With the release of April Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we’ve updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in April decreased by 0.2% (0.19% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.51%.

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Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: April 2019 Update

7 days ago

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We’ve updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the April monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $39,277, down 11.5% from 45-plus years ago.

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New Residential Building Permits: 1.296M in April

7 days ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.296M was a slight increase from 1.288M in March and fractionally below the Investing.com forecast of 1.290M.

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New Residential Housing Starts Up in April

7 days ago

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.235M was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 1.205M and an increase from the previous month’s revised 1.168M.

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Continued Growth in May

7 days ago

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 16.6, up 5.2 from last month’s 13.7. The 3-month moving average came in at 6.0, up from 8.1 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 19.7, up 0.6 from the previous month’s 19.1.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Posts Solid Gain in May”

8 days ago

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 66 is up 3 from last month.

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Retail Sales: Down 0.19% in April, at 3.1% YoY

8 days ago

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for April was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -.019% month-over-month to one decimal and was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.05% MoM (to two decimals).

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Modest Growth in May

8 days ago

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 17.80 was an increase of 7.7 from the previous month’s 10.10. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 8.20.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 1.9% from Last Week

10 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are up three and two cents, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.05 and Louisiana has the cheapest at $2.45. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 61.04, a 1.9% decrease from this time last week and a 28% increase since the beginning of the year.

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