Tuesday , April 7 2020
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 1.5% From Thursday

4 days ago

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The S&P 500 was down 1.51% today after a mixed week. The index rose on Monday, began to drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, and flip-flopped on Thursday. It is down 2.08% since last Friday and is down 22.97% YTD.

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COVID-19, The Markets, and The Economy

4 days ago

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As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are now in a bear market and the longest bull market in history is over. Here’s a roundup of some informative charts, including the S&P 500, changes in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P since 2000, and a few more that are relevant.

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March Jobs Report: 701K Jobs Lost

4 days ago

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This morning’s employment report for March showed a 701K decrease in total nonfarm payrolls, which was well below the Investing.com forecast of -100K.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLIg Plummets

4 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 106.0, down 7.0 from the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -26.9, down 11.4 from last week and its lowest since the last recession.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Continued Growth at Slower Rate in March

4 days ago

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the March Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at percent 52.5, down 4.8 from 57.3 last month. Today’s number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 44.0 percent.

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February Trade Deficit at $39.9B

5 days ago

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today’s headline number of -39.93B was lower than the Investing.com forecast of -40.0B.

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A Closer Look at Today’s ADP Employment Report

6 days ago

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In this morning’s ADP employment report we got the March estimate of 27K nonfarm private employment jobs lost from ADP, a decrease over February’s revised 183K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance

6 days ago

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Quick take: At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 86% above its long-term trend, down from 130% the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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Is the Stock Market Cheap?

6 days ago

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.

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Crestmont Market Valuation Update: March 2020

6 days ago

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Quick take: Based on the March S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 97% above its arithmetic mean and at the 96th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

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ISM Manufacturing Index: Down 1.0 in March, Better Than Forecast

6 days ago

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This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for March. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.1, a decrease of 1.0 percent from 50.1 the previous month. Today’s headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 45.0 percent.

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Moving Averages: March Month-End Update

7 days ago

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Valid until the market close on April 30, 2019.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly loss of 12.51% after a loss of 8.41% in February. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "cash" and four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "cash".

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Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

7 days ago

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.1% (+5.3 billion vehicle miles) for January 2020 as compared with January 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 253.7 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 0.9% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.42% month-over-month and up 0.5% year-over-year.

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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: January

7 days ago

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With today’s release of the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.31% month over month which is cut to -0.04% with inflation adjustment.

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Chicago PMI: Drop in March

7 days ago

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 47.8 in March from 49.0 in February, which is in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down Another 14%

8 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down twelve and ten cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.35 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $1.51. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 20.09, down 14% from last week.

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World Markets Update

8 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through March 30, 2020. The top performer is China’s Shanghai with a loss of 9.11%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 16.69% and in third is Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 with a loss of 18.04%. Coming in last is India’s BSE SENSEX with a loss of 27.7%.

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March Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview

8 days ago

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Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for March is -1.7, down from the previous month’s 5.8. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.

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