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We are now living in the world of over 4K.
The S&P 500 rose three out of the last five days and closed Friday at another record high (no surprise there!). The index is up 1.11% from yesterday and is up 11% YTD.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this week puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.62%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%.

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Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 156.1, up 2.9 from the previous week’s revised figure. The WLIg is at 25.0, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at 40.54% up from last week.

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The April Preliminary came in at 86.5, up 1.6 from the March Final. Investing.com had forecast 89.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 0.4 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 1.5 percent below the geometric mean.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for March new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.739M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.613M and an increase from the previous month’s upwardly revised 1.457M.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for March new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.766M was up 2.7% from the February reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.750M.

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Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 9.8%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 9.2%.

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 83 is up 1 from last month’s 82.

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Today’s report on Industrial Production for March shows a 1.44% increase month-over-month, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 2.8%. The year-over-year change is 1%, up from last month’s YoY decrease.

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The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for March was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 9.8% month-over-month to one decimal and above the Investing.com forecast of 5.9%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 8.5% MoM.

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 576K new claims, down 193K from the previous week’s downwardly revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 700K.

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 50.2, up 7.5 from last month’s 44.5. The 3-month moving average came in at 41.1, up from 38.4 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 66.6, up 7.5 from the previous month’s 59.1.

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 26.3 was an increase of 8.9 from the previous month’s 17.4. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 19.5.

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Here’s the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.

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We’ve updated this series to include the February release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $42,235, down 6.2% from 45-plus years ago.

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In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the March 31 close.

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Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 13, 2021. The top performer is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 11.40%, Germany’s DAXK is in second is with a gain of 10.44% and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 10.26%. Coming in last is China’s Shanghai with a loss of 2.21%.

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As of March 31, the 10-year note was 122 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.

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The latest full set UIG for March is 2.16% while the prices-only measure is 2.58%. Current Headline CPI is now 2.62% and Core CPI is 1.65%.

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Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,945 for an annualized real return of 13.89%.

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The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available.

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As of April 5, the price of Regular and Premium were up a penny each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.94 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $2.55. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 58.65, down 4.7% from last week.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.62%, up from 1.68% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.65%, up from 1.28% the previous month and below the Fed’s 2% PCE target.

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The headline number for March came in at 98.2, up 2.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 38th percentile in this series.

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At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.6 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we’ve illustrated in a pie chart.

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Last week’s headline number of -71.08B was more negative than the Investing.com forecast of -70.50B.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline