Tuesday , November 13 2018
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

World Markets Update

5 hours ago

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Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 12, 2018. The top performer this year is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.96%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 1.97%. In third is Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2.17%. Coming in last is Shanghai’s SSE with a loss of 20.46%.

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2018 Update: Median Home Price and Salary Required in 25 Major Cities

7 hours ago

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is: "How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 2.1% from Last Friday

3 days ago

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The S&P 500 climbed through the middle of the week, only to come down a bit on Friday. The index closed up 2.13% from last Friday, but down 0.92% from yesterday (Thursday). It is up 1% YTD.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLIg at -2.6

3 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.0, down from the previous week’s 146.1. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 0.19%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -2.64, also down from the previous week.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update

4 days ago

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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October Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM

4 days ago

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Today’s release of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last month’s 0.2%. It is at 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.5% MoM, up from 0.2% the previous month and is up 2.6% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.

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Household Incomes: The Decline of the “Middle Class” 2017 Update

4 days ago

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let’s take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau’s latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we’ll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau’s annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2017.

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The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update

4 days ago

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The Philly Fed’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims

5 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 214K new claims, down 1K from the previous week’s revised figure, was at the Investing.com forecast of 214K.

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Weekly Heating Oil Prices

5 days ago

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $3.35, down two cents from last week and up 6 cents since the beginning of the season.

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U.S. Workforce Recovery

5 days ago

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We’ve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday’s Employment Report for October. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 250K.

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Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

5 days ago

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday’s Employment Report. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

5 days ago

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We’ve created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present. What we see is essentially the "Boomer Bulge" in employment across time. Those born between 1946 and 1964 continue to grow the employment of the two oldest cohorts. It will be interesting to see how long those two trends continue.

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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

6 days ago

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The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 177 BPs to 3.14% as of the October 26th close.

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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

6 days ago

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

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Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades of Trends as of October

6 days ago

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What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 5.2 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we’ve illustrated in a pie chart.

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Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle

6 days ago

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The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through September, is now available. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939, while the BLS began tracking JOLTS in December 2000.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down Again

7 days ago

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It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are down six and five cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.85 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.39. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 63.10, a 5.9% decrease from this time last week and its fifth in a row.

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World Markets Update

7 days ago

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Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer this year is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In third is Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai’s SSE with a loss of 19.40%.

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The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

7 days ago

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Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,903 for an annualized real return of 10.54%.

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S&P 500 ETFs

7 days ago

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The S&P 500 index is arguably the most well-known worldwide. It is based on the market cap of the 500 largest companies in the U.S. The first-ever ETF, introduced in 1989, hoped to mimic the index, but was short-lived due to a lawsuit. Several S&P 500 ETFs have been brought to market since, and we show their performance, as well as the tracking error relative to the S&P 500 Total Return Index (which assumes reinvestment of dividends).

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The Ratio of Part-Time Employed: October 2018

7 days ago

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Let’s take a close look at Friday’s employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government’s Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.

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Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing

7 days ago

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The Department of Labor has monthly data on employment by industry categories reaching back to 1939. At the highest level, all jobs are categorized in either Service-Providing Industries or Goods Producing Industries. The adjacent chart illustrates the ratio of the two since 1939. The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 250K nonfarm payrolls, which consists of a gain of 183K service-providing jobs and a gain of 67K goods-producing jobs.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower Growth in October

7 days ago

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the October Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 60.3 percent, down 1.3 from 61.6 last month. Today’s number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 59.3 percent.

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Markit Services PMI: “Business activity growth regains momentum in October”

7 days ago

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The October US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 54.8 percent, up 1.3 from the final September estimate of 53.54.8. The Investing.com consensus was for 54.7 percent. Markit’s Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

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