Monday , September 16 2019
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Doug Short

Doug Short

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

Articles by Doug Short

Dshort Offline 9/12-9/13

4 days ago

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Dshort will be offline Thursday and Friday, Septembre 12 and 13. We will publish missed economic news on Monday.

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Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

5 days ago

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We’ve created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

5 days ago

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday’s Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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U.S. Workforce Recovery

5 days ago

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We’ve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday’s Employment Report for August. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 130K.

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August Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.3% MoM

5 days ago

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Today’s release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from 0.2% last month. It is at 1.8% year-over-year, up from 1.7% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.3% MoM, up from -0.1% the previous month and is up 2.3% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.1% headline and 0.2% core.

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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

6 days ago

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 7.2%

7 days ago

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The price of Regular and Premium are down a penny from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.62 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.15. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 57.85, up 7.2% from this time last week and a 19% increase since the beginning of the year.

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World Markets Update

7 days ago

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All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through September 9, 2019. The top performer is China’s Shanghai SSE with a 22.69% gain and in second is France’s CAC 40 with a gain of 19.18%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 18.66%. Coming in last is India’s BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.49%.

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The Big Four Economic Indicators: August Nonfarm Employment

10 days ago

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This commentary has been updated to include this morning’s release of Nonfarm Employment. August’s 130K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 20K less jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 1640 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%.

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The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

10 days ago

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Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,325 for an annualized real return of 8.57%.

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S&P 500 ETFs

10 days ago

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

10 days ago

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This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is currently at 143.2, up 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -2.62%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -2.87, also down from the previous week.

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August Jobs Report: 130K New Jobs

10 days ago

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This morning’s employment report for August showed a 130K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was below the Investing.com forecast of 160K.

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A Closer Look at Today’s ADP Employment Report

11 days ago

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In this morning’s ADP employment report we got the August estimate of 195K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase over July’s revised 142K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Continued Growth in August

11 days ago

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the August Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 56.4 percent, up 2.7 from 53.7 last month. Today’s number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 54.0 percent.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 1K

11 days ago

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This morning’s seasonally adjusted 217K new claims, up 1K from the previous week’s revised 216K, was above the Investing.com forecast of 215K.

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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past

12 days ago

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — current valuation levels would be a serious concern. But these are different times.

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A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets

12 days ago

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Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over ten years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.

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