Thursday , April 2 2020
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Boris Schlossberg

Boris Schlossberg

Real time analysis of forex market from co founder of BKForex Tweets are commentary only.

Articles by Boris Schlossberg

Will Consumer Confidence Bring Down The Market?

2 days ago

March 31, 2020
Chinese PMIs surprise to the upside
Risk Rally stalls
Nikkei -0.88% Dax 1.22%
UST 10Y 0.69%
Oil $21/bbl
Gold $1601/oz
BTCUSD $6446
Asia and the EU
CNY Manufacturing PMI 52 vs. 35
North America Open
USD Chicago PMI 09:45
USD Consumer Confidence 10:00
Markets were mildly up in Asia and early European trade but gave up most of their gains ahead of the US open as investors turned cautious into North American session.
In Asia sentiment was boosted by news that Chinese PMI rebounded from their worst showing ever to print in expansionary territory. Chinese Manufacturing PMI recorded a reading of 52 versus 35 the month prior, shocking the market with the strength of the rebound. To be sure many market players treated the news with a healthy dose of skepticism given the fact the

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Trump Relents on Timeline Markets Stabilize

3 days ago

March 30, 2020
Equities gap lower but stabilize
Dollar bid once again
Nikkei -1.57% Dax -0.17%
UST 10Y 0.63%
Oil $20/bbl
Gold $1620/oz
BTCUSD $6285
Asia and EU
GBP UK Mortgage Approvals 73.5K vs 68.2K
North America Open
USD Pending Home Sales 10:00
President Trump relented on his timeline of returning to “normal” by Easter and suggested that the US should continue its social distancing policies until at least April 30.
In his typical rambling presser that lasted more than an hour yesterday, President Trump updated the country on all the measures being taken to combat the coronavirus, but perhaps the single most important aspect of the press conference was the radical change in tone from the President who appeared to finally take the crisis seriously even conceding that under the of

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Why “Return by Easter” is an Economic Pip Dream

6 days ago

March 27, 2020
Equities pull back
Dollar finds a bid
Nikkei -3.88% Dax -2.11%
UST 10Y 0.771%
Oil $22/bbl
Gold $1622/oz
BTCUSD $6640
Asia and EU
No Data
North America Open
USD PCI 8:30
After a strong risk-on rally yesterday markets in Europe turned sour with index futures off by more than -2% in the morning dealing while the greenback strengthening again.
European finance ministers failed to come up with a comprehensive pan- European plan to finance response to the coronavirus with Germans once again scuttling plans to issue mutually guaranteed bonds. This leaves ECB as the only pan-European institution to act for the union now and investors are understandably concerned that a monetary response will not be enough to create stimulus in the region.
We’ll see if the pressure grows strong

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Weekly Jobless is the New NFP – Markets Remain Risk Off

7 days ago

March 26, 2020
Senate passes stimulus bill
Jobless claims the new NFP
Nikkei -4.51% Dax 1.86%
UST 10Y 0.811%
Oil $23/bbl
Gold $1602/oz
BTCUSD $6609
Asia and EU
GBP UK UK Retail Sales -0.5% vs. -0.2%
North America Open
USD Weekly jobless claims
Its been a quiet, almost sedate night of trade in financial markets in Asian and early Europeans sessions with equities only moving 1-2% and most FX pairs contained to 50bps ranges.
Overnight, the US Senate passed the coronavirus bill and it looks almost certain that the House will pass the legislation on Friday. The stimulus will come as welcome news to more than a third of Americans now sheltered in place who are unable to earn income, but just how much lost capacity the bill will make up remains to be seen.
Although the President and his

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Deal Done; Equities Extend Rally

8 days ago

March 25, 2020
Congress agrees on stimulus deal
Equities extend rally
Nikkei 8.04% Dax 4.26%
UST 10Y 1.05%
Oil $24/bbl
Gold $1604/oz
BTCUSD $6807
Asia and EU
EUR GE IFO 86.1 vs. 87.9
North America Open
USD Durable Goods 8:30
With Senate in agreement on the stimulus deal and the House expected to pass the bill, markets were in ebullient mood in Asian and early European trade today with futures rallying between 2% to 3% on hopes that the $2 Trillion stimulus bill would provide some support to the locked-down US economy.
With the global COVID-19 case count now above 400,000 there is little evidence that the spread of the virus is slowing materially, but President Trump announced yesterday that hoped the country would reopen by Easter which is April 12th. Mosty scientists

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All Eyes on Senate

10 days ago

March 23, 2020
ECB bazooka calms markets a bit
SNB keeps rates same
Nikkei closed Dax -3.39%
UST 10Y 0.82%
Oil $22/bbl
Gold $1490/oz
BTCUSD $5803
Asia and EU
No Data
North America Open
No Data
Global markets were sharply lower with futures hitting limit down less than five minutes after the start of trade on disappointment that US legislators were unable to reach consensus on the stimulus deal Sunday night, but as the overnight session wore on risk flows improved somewhat on hopes that some sort of a compromise could be reached by end of the day today.
The Senate majority leader Mitch McConnel found himself in the unusual position of being in the minority after Senator Rand Paul tested positive for COVID-19 forcing five Republican senators to go immediately into self-quarantine as

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ECB Bazooka Provides Some Relief

14 days ago

March 19, 2020
ECB bazooka calms markets a bit
SNB keeps rates same
Nikkei -1.04% Dax 1.97%
UST 10Y 1.17%
Oil $23/bbl
Gold $1484/oz
BTCUSD $5425
Asia and EU
SNB rates at -75bps
North America Open
USD Weekly jobless 8:30
CAD ADP Employment
Global financial markets settled down a bit with futures trading higher in morning European dealing after ECB came out with a commercial paper facility and basically reassured the markets that it would be a buyer of last resort.
The ECB came out with a 750 Billion euro program called Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) that would essentially serve as a backstop in the credit markets.
In its statement, ECB noted, “The Governing Council will do everything necessary within its mandate. The Governing Council is fully prepared to increase the

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Code Red – Stocks Dive; Bonds Dump – Is the Vicious Cycle Here?

15 days ago

March 18, 2020
10Y yields surge
Equities limit down
Nikkei -1.68% Dax -3.29%
UST 10Y 1.19%
Oil $26/bbl
Gold $1498/oz
BTCUSD $5228
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
CAD CPI 8:30
USD Building Permits 8:30
Equity futures were limit down once again in Asian and European trade today as the COVID-19 news remained bleak with worldwide cases approaching 200,000 mark and deaths passing the 7,000 barrier.
Governments have struggled to respond to the fast-growing health crisis that is quickly morphing into the greatest threat to the global economy since the Great Depression. With much of the industrialized world on lockdown as authorities try to institute social distancing measures, economic activity has ground to a halt and governments are scrambling to respond with emergency measures

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COVID-19 – What Needs to Be Done

16 days ago

March 17, 2020
Futures turn negative
UK labor data mixed
Nikkei -0.06% Dax -3.05%
UST 10Y 0.79%
Oil $28/bbl
Gold $1473/oz
BTCUSD $5228
Europe and Asia:
GBP UK Labor Data 3.9% vs.3.8%
North America:
CAD Manufacturing Sales 8:30
After a rebound in Asia trade that saw US futures locked limit up, equity markets began to sell off once again as investor sentiment once again turned sour. The mood in Europe remained grim with Italy, Spain, and France on virtual lockdowns as governments tried to maintain social distancing that has brought almost all but the essential economic activity to a halt.
At this point, investors are essentially flying blind as the length of the containment is uncertain and the economic impact of the health measures could be catastrophic. In US, for

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Trump Fails Miserably; What Can ECB Do?

21 days ago

March 12, 2020
Trump fails to calm markets – futs off by 4%
All eyes on ECB
Nikkei -4.41% Dax -6.56%
UST 10Y 0.74%
Oil $31/bbl
Gold $1642/oz
BTCUSD $7433
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
USD PPI 8:30
ECB Presser 8:30
Markets were sharply lower in Asian and early European sessions today with stock futures pointing to nearly -5% down open after President Trump failed to calm and may have actually exacerbated investors’ fears after addressing the nation on the coronavirus news.
Trump announced a 30-day ban on travel from EU Schengen zone that was initially interpreted as a ban on trade as well but later corrected by White House to mean only the movement of people not goods. Regardless, Mr. Trump offered no healthcare protections for the US populace at large. Provided no

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BOE Emergency Cut – Lagarde Warns of Collapse-Risk Off Flows Reverse

22 days ago

March 11, 2020
Equities rebound after a selloff in Asia
BOE cuts 50bp
Nikkei -2.27% Dax 2.20%
UST 10Y 0.72%
Oil $34/bbl
Gold $1658/oz
BTCUSD $7865
Europe and Asia:
GBP UK BOE cuts 50bp
GBP UK GDP 0.0% vs. 0.2%
GBP UK MP -3.6% vs.-3.5%
North America:
USD CPI 8:30
A big wave of newsflow from Asia and Europe today that involved failed promises from US, emergency rate cuts from BOE and dire warnings from ECB chief Lagarde but the overall impact on assets has been relatively muted with equity futures bouncing off the bottom but still more than 1.5% off on the day while USDJPY rebounded above the 105.00 figure.
The day started with a decidedly risk-off slant as markets were disappointed that President Trump did not show up at the press conference to address stimulus measures against the

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Risk Rebounds – Can it Hold?

23 days ago

March 9, 2020
Equities rebound by 5%
Part of Hubei province go back to normal
Nikkei 0.89% Dax 3.36%
UST 10Y 0.72%
Oil $33/bbl
Gold $1660/oz
BTCUSD $7908
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
No Data
Risk rebounded with vengeance in Asian and early European trade today with US futures rising by 4.5% as markets awaited a press conference from President Trump regarding US fiscal measures to help combat the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
In China meanwhile, the caseload rose just by 19 and some parts of the Hubei province which was the epicenter of the outbreak are starting to return to normal conditions. The Chinese have also announced that they have closed all the temporary hospitals built in order to treat the coronavirus patients as further sign that the

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Dollar Remains in The Dumps

27 days ago

March 7, 2020
Dollar in the dumps
NFP on tap
Nikkei -2.72% Dax -2.49%
UST 10Y 0.77%
Oil $45/bbl
Gold $1677/oz
BTCUSD $9147
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
USD NFP 8:30
CAD Employment 8:30
Markets were generally quiet but with a decidedly risk-off slant with equity futures down another -1.25% in morning European trade while the dollar remained in the dumps as 10-year yields hit their lowest rates on record.
The UST 10 year yield as was as low as 77 basis points indicating an almost universal rush to safety as investors begin to appreciate the global economic impact of the coronavirus. Globally the caseload has crossed the 100K mark and many experts fear that the US may be the next hotspot as travelers from Italy have brought the virus onshore to both East and West coasts.

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Will Euro Veriticalize?

28 days ago

March 5, 2020
Risk-off flow resume
Markets starting to appreciate the economic toll of virus
Nikkei 1.08% Dax -1.06%
UST 10Y.974%
Oil $46/bbl
Gold $1645/oz
BTCUSD $9099
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
No Data
It’s been a slow drip down in early European trade today as equity markets gave up their early Asia session gains and moved lower all morning on the realization that the coronavirus impact may be a long and tedious battle.
The rate of infection in the US appears to be ticking up with California now declaring a state of emergency as it monitors more than 9000 possible cases. Airlines have continued to issue warnings as travel may be off by as much 70%, And with swaths of China and parts of Europe still on effective lockdown, the rebound in economic activity may take longer

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Markets Await the G-7 Call

March 3, 2020

March 3, 2020
Slight bid ahead of G-7 Call
RBA Cuts rate 25bp
Nikkei -1.22% Dax 2.82%
UST 10Y 1.16%
Oil $48/bbl
Gold $1598/oz
BTCUSD $8892
Europe and Asia:
EUR EU CPI 1.2% vs. 1.2%
North America:
No Data
Markets were generally calm in Asian and early European trade today awaiting the G-7 finance ministers meeting with regard to the global economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic.
Equities were slightly bid continuing their strong rebound from yesterday when they catapulted more than 4% after a vicious selloff the week prior. Although the rate of new COVID-19 cases continues to rise, there have been no new hot spots yet and that has helped to lift sentiment somewhat, but equities could swoon once again the moment there is news of another big outbreak, especially in the US

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No Bottom In Sight – Markets Remain in a Freefall

February 28, 2020

February 28, 2020
Equities continue lower
Stock down another 2%
Nikkei -3.67% Dax -4.37%
UST 10Y 1.17%
Oil $45/bbl
Gold $1627/oz
BTCUSD $8694
Europe and Asia:
North America:
USD PCE 08:30
USD PI/PS 8:30
CAD GDP 8:30
USD Chicago PMI 9:45
USD U of M
The markets were once again under tremendous pressure in Asian and Europen sessions as fears of further spread of coronavirus kept investors on edge with Nikkei down 3% and Dax down 4%.
Markets fear that prolonged quarantine and containment measures will cause irreversible damage to the global economy and as many analysts have noted such fears have caused the fastest correction in the markets ever with US stocks falling more than 10% in one week.
Certainly, the volatility has picked up markedly with SP futures moving in 20 point

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Still Risk Off – Will US GDP Add to the Woes?

February 27, 2020

February 27, 2020
Risk off flow resume
Cable drops as BoJo goes hardline
Nikkei -2.13% Dax -2.07%
UST 10Y 1.305%
Oil $47/bbl
Gold $1646/oz
BTCUSD $8829
Europe and Asia:
EUR EU Sentiment 103.5 vs 102.8
North America:
USD Durable Goods 08:30
USD GDP 8:30
Risk assets continued to dive in Asian and European trade today with US futures off by more than 1% in the wake of President Trump’s presser on coronavirus that failed to reassure the markets.
Although the absolute number of coronavirus cases outside of mainland China remains small, the fear that a global pandemic may be emerging continues to rattle the markets. The asymptomatic nature of the virus and its exponential infection function along with the fact that up to 20% of cases require hospitalization has forced many governments

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After a Two Day Drubbing Markets Try to Stabilize

February 26, 2020

Futures rally to flat
Euro keeps the bid
Nikkei 0.79% Dax -1.37%
UST 10Y 1.366%
Oil $49/bbl
Gold $1648/oz
BTCUSD $9164
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
USD New Home Sales 10:00
After a two day drubbing, risk assets tried to stabilize in early European trade today with US stock index futures turning green after spending most of the Asian session underwater.
Coronavirus news continued to dominate headlines as cases continued to rise in South Korea and Italy, but the news from China suggested that containment efforts may be working as cases outside of Hubei province decreased markedly.
There is no doubt that investors are watching the coronavirus headlines very carefully as the prospect of full-on pandemic continues to rattle the markets but with authorities across the globe now

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Virus Risk – Equities Sink Like a Stone but FX Unfazed

February 24, 2020

Market Drivers February 24, 2020
Nasdaq Futures down -2%
IFO better
Nikkei closed Dax -2.83%
UST 10Y 1.39%
Oil $51/bbl
Gold $1678/oz
BTCUSD $9775
Europe and Asia:
EUR IFO 96.1 vs. 95.3
North America:
CAD Wholesale Sales 8:30
Equities were sharply lower in Asian and early European trade today with US stock index futures off as much as 2% on fears that the coronavirus is now turning into a global pandemic as the infection spread through Italy, South Korea, and Japan over the weekend forcing some of the governments to institute limited quarantines.
Investors are finally becoming concerned with the potential long term impact of economic disruption as large swaths of Asia and now some parts of Europe remain on a virtual lockdown ceasing all business activity for the time being. With

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Both Gold and Risk Rally – Why?

February 19, 2020

Market Drivers February 19, 2020
Gold and USDJPY climb
UK inflation slight beat
Nikkei 0.89% Dax 0.51%
UST 10Y 1.55%
Oil $52/bbl
Gold $1610/oz
BTCUSD $10130
Europe and Asia:
GBP UK Core CPI 1.6% vs. 1.4%
North America:
USD PPI 8:30
CAD CPI 8:30
USD Fed Minutes 14:00
In an unusual correlation, both gold and risk assets move higher in Asian and early European trade today with US futures up about 35 basis points USDJPY firmly through the 110.00 figure and Gold approaching its 7-year highs set earlier this year during the Iran crisis.
The markets appear to be both ignoring the long term negative economic impacts of China shut down while at the same time hedging the risk by bidding Gold higher. On the equity side traders remain delirious with hopium bidding up equities despite yesterday’s

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AAPL Warning Sends Risk Tumbling

February 18, 2020

Market Drivers February 18, 2020
AAPL warns sends risk lower
UK Employment
Nikkei -1.40% Dax -0.67%
UST 10Y 1.55%
Oil $51/bbl
Gold $1587/oz
BTCUSD $9764
Europe and Asia:
GBP UK Employment Claimant Count 5K vs.22.6K
North America:
No Data
Equities and risk FX were lower in Asian and European trade today with Aussie once again hitting decade long lows as Apple warned that they no longer can stand behind their Q1 guidance given the problems with the workforce due to the coronavirus.
Although China is supposed to be back to work from the Lunar New Year holiday most experts believe that the country is operating at only 60% capacity with much of the population restrained from movement due to the quarantine measures put in place by the government.
The Apple warning was hardly unexpected

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Funda be Damned Risk On Rally Continues

February 17, 2020

Market Drivers February 17, 2020
PBOC pumps money – risk on flows continue
Japanese GDP sinks like a stone
Nikkei -0.69% Dax n/a
UST 10Y 1.59%
Oil $52/bbl
Gold $1582/oz
BTCUSD $9806
Europe and Asia:
JPY GDP -6.3% vs. -3.7%
North America:
No Data
The start of the week saw a mild but steady risk on bias as PBOC suggested that it may offer a lower rate on its medium-term lending facility in effect easing credit conditions in response to the ongoing coronavirus crisis.
The news helped to lift Chinese equities above their Lunar New Year opening gap with indices now erasing all of their coronavirus losses. Investors continue to take solace in the fact that the virus does not seem to be spreading outside of China in any significant way and even within China the official case count outside of

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Can US Consumer Take USDJPY to 110.00?

February 14, 2020

Market Drivers February 14, 2020
Markets very quiet
EU GDP stays just above even
Nikkei -0.59% Dax 0.21%
UST 10Y 1.59%
Oil $52/bbl
Gold $1575/oz
BTCUSD $10278
Europe and Asia:
EUR GDP 0.1% vs. 0.1%
North America:
USD Retail Saleas 8:30
It’s been a very quiet night in FX and equity markets but a mild risk-on tone has managed to prevail as the pace of new coronavirus cases has started to slow and there were no significant additional outbreaks outside of mainland China.
It’s still too early to tell just how much of an impact the virus will have on global Q1 GDP but for now, the market is operating under the assumption that normal business activity will resume in March as the quarantine period exhausts the infection.
That may be extraordinarily optimistic given the long incubation period

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Risk Finally Takes a Hit

February 13, 2020

Market Drivers February 13, 2020
Virus fears drive risk lower
USDJPY backs off 110.00
Nikkei -0.14% Dax -1.12%
UST 10Y 1.57%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1574/oz
BTCUSD $10163
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
USD CPI 8:30
Risk took a hit in Asian and European dealing after Chinese authorities released fresh coronavirus figures that markedly increased the number of cases and deaths in one day.
The official count jumped by more than 14000 new cases in the Hubei province while the new death count also rose sharply by 242.
The news instantly rocked the markets with both equities and yen crosses pull lower and they have been drifting lower ever since. By mid day London dealing yen was trading at session lows of 109.68 while US futures were by 75 basis points.
Up to now financial markets have

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Why are Markets Ignoring the Coronavirus Risks?

February 10, 2020

Market Drivers February 10, 2020
Markets steady
Cable remains weak
Nikkei -0.60% Dax -0.11%
UST 10Y 1.59%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1572/oz
BTCUSD $9963
Europe and Asia:
EUR Sentix
North America:
No Data
Despite the rise in coronavirus deaths that have now put the toll above the SARS virus, markets were steady at the start of the week, shrugging off an initial flurry lower on the open to trade flat by European open.
There was little fresh news on a slow and listless Monday trade as the coronavirus figures continued to climb higher with cases now exceeding 40K and deaths rising above 900. Still, markets generally ignored the news with bulls taking solace in the fact that recovery rates – at least according to official statistics improved markedly.
Although few analysts believe the official

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What to Look For in Today’s NFP

February 7, 2020

Market Drivers February 7, 2020
Euro drifts to 1.0950
Equities hold steady
Nikkei -0.19% Dax -0.30%
UST 10Y 1.62%
Oil $51/bbl
Gold $1564/oz
BTCUSD $9771
Europe and Asia:
EUR Industrial Production -2.8% vs. -0.3%
North America:
USD Non-Farm Payrolls 8:30
CAD Employment 8:30
Financial markets were moribund ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls later in the day although the skew was to the risk off side as negative eco data surprises and new outbreaks of the coronavirus kept traders on edge.
In Europe, the French Industrial Production data came in woefully short of estimates printing at -2.8% versus -0.3% eyed. The news helped to drive euro to fresh four-month lows as it dipped towards the 1.0950 level. The Eurozone economy may face a particularly difficult time in the next quarter as the

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Is Euro the New “Yen”?

February 6, 2020

Market Drivers February 6, 2020
Equities consolidate at highs
Euro defends the 1.1000 level
Nikkei1 2.38% Dax 0.58%
UST 10Y 1.64%
Oil $51/bbl
Gold $1554/oz
BTCUSD $9644
Europe and Asia:
No Data
North America:
No Data
After yet another pop to record high in Asia session trade, equity indices were muted in moring European dealing while currencies remained quiet throughout on a night of little newsflow or economic data
It’s been a generally quiet night of trade with EURUSD defending the 1.1000 figure yet again as the pair remains weak. Although data in the Eurozone has improved mildly over the past month trade in the pair is ignoring the fundamental data and trading on carry trade flows alone.
With Ms. Legarde making it clear that ECB monetary policy will continue to be accommodative for

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Risk Rips Again on Virus Cure Hopes

February 5, 2020

Market Drivers February 5, 2020
Coronavirus cures spark risk flows
Final PMIs inline
Nikkei1.02% Dax 0.64%
UST 10Y 1.622%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1554/oz
BTCUSD $9243
Europe and Asia:
EUR PMI 51.3 vs. 50.9
GBP PMI 53.9 vs. 52.9
North America:
USD ADP 08:15
USD ISM Non-Manufactiring 10:00
Risk flows ripped to the upside in early European trade after Chinese scientists stated that they may have found an effective drug against the coronavirus while UK scientists stated that they may have a vaccine in a matter of months rather than years.
The news lifted investor spirits and sent stock index futures to fresh record highs as markets continued to ignore any negative impact of China’s economic lockdown. Markets are now in full melt-up mode aided by massive central bank liquidity and improving

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Risk Rebounds – Aussie Leads the Way

February 4, 2020

Market Drivers February 4, 2020
RBA Holds – Aussie rebounds
Equities rocket across the board
Nikkei 0.49% Dax 1.09%
UST 10Y 1.58%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1568/oz
BTCUSD $9194
Europe and Asia:
AUD RBA Keeps rates on hold
GBP PMI 48.4 vs. 46.6
North America:
USD Consumetr Confidence 10:00
A raging rally in risk characterized today’s markets as the reversal in Shanghai index aided by yet more liquidity measures by PBOC helped lead a strong move in equities elsewhere with US indices pointing to a greater than 1% gain on the open.
The coronavirus continues to ravage mainland China unabated with confirmed cases exceeding the 20,000 mark while deaths have now climbed above 425. However, as we noted earlier, “For now global markets view this as “China only” issue. Investors won’t panic unless the

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Risk Stabilizes – But for How Long?

February 3, 2020

Market Drivers February 2, 2020
China bans all selling – stems decline
Risk assets stabilize
Nikkei -1.01% Dax 0.37%
UST 10Y 1.52%
Oil $51.3/bbl
Gold $1577/oz
BTCUSD $9385
Europe and Asia:
EUR PMI 47.9 vs. 47.9
GBP PMI 50 vs. 49.8
North America:
USD ISM Manufcatuing 10:00
Risk assets stabilized in the wake of very aggressive liquidity infusion actions by Chinese authorities today with US stock index futures actually rallying into the European open.
Chinese equities were down by -7.7% but that was actually much less than the limit down -10% feared after PBOC added more than $170B in bank reserves via a reverse repo and banned all short selling and even outright selling from major institutions in order to stabilize asset prices.
The move worked for now as risk assets across the board

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