Saturday , October 31 2020
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Boris Schlossberg

Boris Schlossberg

Real time analysis of forex market from co founder of BKForex Tweets are commentary only.

Articles by Boris Schlossberg

Monster Beats Do Not Impress as Stocks Sink

1 day ago

Big Tech beats but futures sell-off
Euro GDP data beats
Nikkei -1.52% Dax -0.40%
UST 10Y 0.822
Oil $36.00
Gold $1872/oz.
BTCUSD $13222.
Asia and the EU
EU GDP 16.%
North America Open
USD Personal Income/Spending 8:30
USD U of M
A slew of BIg Tech earnings last night handily beat forecasts but investors were unimpressed with forward guidance and pushed stock index futures sharply lower in Asian and European session trade.
Nasdaq futures were down by nearly 2% before rebounding slightly maintaining the negative tone that started last week. As we noted a few days back earrings and guidance would be key to market momentum and while the former showed massive upside surprise the latter was far more cautious as companies remained concerned about the long-term impact of COVID on demand.

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Stocks Resume Slide as Virus Rages

3 days ago

Equities dive as France and Germany consider lockdowns
Euro below 1.1800
Nikkei -0.29% Dax -0.93%
UST 10Y 0.76%
Oil $38.44
Gold $1905/oz.
BTCUSD $13646.
Asia and the EU
No Data
North America Open
USD Trade Balance 8:30
CAD BOC Statement 10:00
Equity markets were lower once again as lockdown fears gripped Europe amidst a worsening COVID spread that threatened to impair the continent’s biggest economies.
Markets were in a sour mood on Wednesday both Germany and France considered month-long lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus which infected more than 450,000 people over the past seven days. Hospitalizations in many of the region’s biggest members are starting to hit levels not seen since the peak of the crisis in April and governments are clearly becoming concerned that they

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Markets Flatline After Yesterday’s Rout

4 days ago

Equities stage mild rebound after yesterday fall
COVID cases continue to rise
Nikkei -0.4% Dax -0.72%
UST 10Y 0.79%
Oil $38.78
Gold $1900/oz.
BTCUSD $13132.
Asia and the EU
No Data
North America Open
USD Durable Goods 8:30
USD Consumer Confidence 10:00
Markets were essentially flat in Asian and early European trade after a steep sell-off yesterday as investors kept a wary eye on the dual event risks of the US election and rising COVID cases on Europe and North America.
Yesterday, the markets sold off hard after it became evident that no fiscal stimulus will be forthcoming before the election while the near parabolic rise in COVID infections threatened to force many governments in Europe to institute fresh lockdowns that deeply curtail economic activity.
The COVID story remains a

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Virus V. Earnings – How the Week Sets Up

5 days ago

Equities lower on lockdowns and stimulus fail
IFO come sin mixed
Nikkei -0.44% Dax -2.05%
UST 10Y 0.81%
Oil $38.78
Gold $1900/oz.
BTCUSD $1308.
Asia and the EU
EU IFO 95 vs. 96.5
North America Open
USD New Home Sales 8:30
A very distinct risk-off mood to the start of the week as investors woke up to grim news that COVID cases were rising to record highs in Europe and the US with France’s caseload expected to hit 100,000 infections per day sometime this week.
Adding to the sour mood was news that stimulus talks remained at an impasse over the weekend essentially eliminating any prospect of the bill’s passage before the election. Finally disappointing earnings from SAP – on the bellwether stocks on the DAX – sent the share plunging by 20% which pushed DAX lower by 2%.
With COVID and

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Risk Bid as Stimulus Talks Approach Deadline

11 days ago

Equities remain bid on stimulus hopes
EU inflation rises
Nikkei -0.44% Dax -0.26%
UST 10Y 0.77
Oil $41
Gold $1900/oz
BTCUSD $11725/oz.
Asia and the EU
EU PPO 0.4%
North America Open
USD Housing Starts 8:30
It’s been a very quiet night of trade in the markets with FX essentially marking time but equities remained bid with Nasdaq futures up by more than 50 basis points as investors still anticipated some positive news on stimulus talks in Washington DC.
Stocks slid for most of the day yesterday as prospects for a deal before the election dimmed, but after the market close in New York, the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi released a statement that Mnuchin and Pelosi “continued to narrow their differences” and that she should have some clarity before the end of the day today.
The

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Risk On Starts the Week

12 days ago

Equities bid on stimulus hopes
Cable inches to 1.30
Nikkei 1.11% Dax 0.34%
UST 10Y 0.77
Oil $40
Gold $1910/oz
BTCUSD $11477/oz.
Asia and the EU
No data
North America Open
CAD Wholesale Sales 8:30
Equities were higher by nearly 1% and Cable pushed towards the 1.3000 mark as investor sentiment turned positive on the possibility of a stimulus deal in DC and renewed movement on Brexit negotiations.
In Washington House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated over the weekend she was willing to consider a stimulus package before the election but put a hard deadline of this Tuesday on any possible negotiation noting that any deal past that date would have to wait until after the election.
The news along with President’s Trump’s statement that he would support a big package and would push Republicans

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Can the US Consumer Power the Recovery?

15 days ago

Equities flat
FX – all eyes on the pound
Nikkei -0.41% Dax 0.37%
UST 10Y 0.72
Oil $40
Gold $1908/oz
BTCUSD $11291/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR CPI 0.2%
North America Open
USD Retail Sales 8:30
It’s been a quiet night of trade on the last day of the workweek with equity futures basically flat and FX pairs stuck in 20 pip ranges.
Last night’s dueling Town Hall meetings by President Trump and Vice President Biden produced some mild volatility in futures but in the end, there was no major headline from either event and it is doubtful that any voter changed their minds.
In Europe, the focus today is on the continuing Brexit negotiation saga with markets betting that PM Johnson will extend the self-imposed October 15 deadline. The impasse over fisheries which is a negligible part of either

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Aussie Double Whammy – Rate Cuts and Risk Off. 6500 in View?

16 days ago

Equities slide on failed stimulus talks
Aussie labor data beats but AUD drops
Nikkei -0.51% Dax -2.87%
UST 10Y 0.69
Oil $40
Gold $1896/oz
BTCUSD $11364/oz.
Asia and the EU
AU Employment 6.9%
North America Open
USD Philly Fed 8:30
USD Weekly jobless 8:30
Markets were under pressure in Asian and European trade today with Nasdaq futures down more than 2% at one point as investors sentiment soured after it became clear that no US stimulus would be coming before the election next month.
The talks between House Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin stalled over the size of the package and the two sides have been unable to come to terms. Even if there was consensus between the White House and the Democrats it was always doubtful that the Republicans in the Senate would pass the plan, but

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Is the Market Too Complacent on Cable?

17 days ago

Equities up FX flat
EZ inflation in line
Nikkei 0.11% Dax 0.31%
UST 10Y 0.72
Oil $40
Gold $1899/oz
BTCUSD $11461/oz.
Asia and the EU
EU HICP 0.6%
North America Open
USD PPI 8:30
Equities continued their steady climb higher in Asian and early European trade with both Nasdaq and S&P higher by about 50 basis points but currencies were essentially flat in listless quiet trading.
There was very little fresh news flow both on the political and economic front and what little there was hardly seemed supportive to the markets as stimulus talks in Washington DC went nowhere while in Europe the Brexit negotiations looked to be stalled over the issue of fishing.
Still, equities shrugged off the bad news on stimulus as well as fresh setbacks on the coronavirus vaccine by several pharmaceutical

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Will Gamma Squeeze End in Tears?

18 days ago

Nas higher but SP lags
ZEW in line
Nikkei 0.18% Dax -0.19%
UST 10Y 0.76
Oil $40
Gold $1923/oz
BTCUSD $11499/oz.
Asia and the EU
EU ZEW 59
North America Open
USD CPI 8:30
It was a mixed night of trade in Asian and early European dealing with Nasdaq futures markedly higher while both S&P and Dow remained flat.
The relentless bid in Nasdaq continues to reflect investor enthusiasm over the winners of COVID economy almost all of which are high-tech companies that have been able to perform well in an economic regime that favors digital rather than physical transactions. The recent move in Nasdaq is starting to look parabolic with many analysts noting that much of the upside activity is being driven by options volume coming from retail demand.
The massive call buying has upended many

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Volatility Dies as Investors Still Hope for Stimulus

22 days ago

Stocks tread water
Hopes of stimulus remain
Nikkei -0.12% Dax -0.15%
UST 10Y 0.76
Oil $40
Gold $1913/oz
BTCUSD $10888/oz.
Asia and the EU
North America Open
CAD Employment 8:30
It’s been a very quiet night of trade in Asian and early European sessions with equity futures mildly up but essentially treading water as investors continued to hope for some sort of a stimulus deal before the election.
After pulling out of negotiations earlier this week President Trump reversed course and directed Secretary Mnuchin to resume negotiations on a stimulus deal with House Speaker Pelosi but it is unclear whether the Democrats will offer any meaningful compromise and furthermore whether any sort of far-reaching support that helps many of the most COVID ravaged states which are mostly blue would

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Post Debate Stocks Rally; Kiwi Goes Negative?

23 days ago

VP Debate uneventful
RBNZ hints at negative rates
Nikkei 0.96% Dax 0.78%
UST 10Y 0.775
Oil $40
Gold $1892/oz
BTCUSD $10612/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR Current Account 16.7B
North America Open
USD Weekly Jobless 8:30
Stock index futures were higher by 70 basis points in the wake of the Vice Presidential debate as neither candidate landed a knockout blow and equity investors continued to bet on a Biden win and the prospect of a large stimulus.
The VP debate was marked by a much more civil tone but highlighted the sharp contrasts between the two parties in their policy approach. Mr. Pence’s smooth speaking style and calm demeanor proved to be a much more effective defense of Trump Administration policies than Mr. Trump’s efforts last Tuesday, but both candidates offered a competent portrait

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Trump Tweets Fuel Risk On Flows

24 days ago

Trump tweets revive hope a stimulus deal
EU Retail Sales rebound
Nikkei1 -0.05% Dax -0.26%
UST 10Y 0.76
Oil $39
Gold $1888/oz
BTCUSD $10604/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR Retail Sales 8.2%
North America Open
USD Fed Minutes 14:00
Stock index futures were higher by more than 50 basis points while risk FX gained ground as well will USDJPY rising through the 106.00 figure as risk-on flows dominated trade in Asian and early European trade.
The positive sentiment was driven by the hope of a revival in the US stimulus talks after President Trump tweeted that he was willing to sign parts of the bill immediately. Yesterday Mr. Trump announced that he was walking away from any negotiation with Democrats and was willing to wait until the election for any possibility of a stimulus bill. However, only

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Markets Slide on Profit Taking; Tech Concerns

25 days ago

Markets slide on profit-taking
RBA more upbeat
Nikkei1 0.52% Dax -0.26%
UST 10Y 0.76
Oil $39
Gold $1897/oz
BTCUSD $10736/oz.
Asia and the EU
RBA unchanged
North America Open
No Data
Markets were mildly lower in morning European trade with tech-heavy Nasdaq hit the most on fears that some of the biggest companies in the industry may face greater regulatory scrutiny.
According to Bloomberg, “A House panel led by Democrats investigating competition in the technology sector is poised to propose sweeping reforms to block giants such as Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. from both owning marketplaces and selling their own products on them, according to a critique of the recommendations by one Republican member of the subcommittee.
The critique and the panel’s report are still drafts and the

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Markets Jump on Trump Recovery, But Data May Matter More

26 days ago

Markets Bounce as Trump seems better
ISM on deck
Nikkei1 1.23% Dax 0.47%
UST 10Y 0.717
Oil $38
Gold $1894/oz
BTCUSD $10705/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR PMI 48.5
North America Open
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing 10:00
Markets were up in Asian and early European trade encouraged by the fact that President Trump’s COVID infection appeared to be under control and the US would not need to consider the transfer of power under the 25th Amendment.
President Trump remained at the Walter Reed hospital receiving treatment for his infection which included a variety of drugs that suggested his case moderate in its nature. Doctors suggested that the President may be released from the hospital as early as today but given the volatile nature of the COVID infection, many medical experts noted that the next few

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Trump has COVID Markets Drop

29 days ago

Trump has COVID markets drop
All eyes on NFP
Nikkei1 -0.67% Dax -0.56%
UST 10Y 0.66
Oil $37.89
Gold $1908/oz
BTCUSD $10488/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR Flash CPI
North America Open
USD NPS 8:30
President Trump has tested positive for COVID sending US equity futures down by more than 1% as investors feared that his illness could bring further turbulence to what is already a highly contested and acrimonious election campaign.
Because the illness path of COVID is so variant, with some infected patients simply experiencing a few days of mild flu-like symptoms while others fall victim to pulmonary and vascular problems that could cause death the key question for the market and the world will be just how severe is the President’s infection.
Analysts have pointed out that infected patients 74

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Cable Feels the Heat from EU Pressure

October 1, 2020

Equities remain bid
EU?UK tensions rise on withdrawal commitment
Nikkei1 -0.19% Dax -0.21%
UST 10Y 0.694
Oil $39.89
Gold $1895/oz
BTCUSD $10905/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR PMI Manufacturing 53.7 vs.53.7
North America Open
USD Personal Income/PS 8:30
USD Weekly Jobless 8:30
USD ISM Manufacturing 10:00
Equity markets were well bid as negotiations continued on a possible second fiscal stimulus bill in FX cable came under pressure when the EU notified the UK that it will pursue legal action if there was no change in a current Internal Market Bill that abrogated former treaty arrangement regarding Northern Ireland.
The pound was lower by 70 pips in the wake of EU action to put the UK “on notice” over the language in the IMB that the Commission believes violated prior international agreements.

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Markets Rattled Post Debate

September 30, 2020

Equities off by nearly 1%
Dollar mildly bid
Nikkei1 -1.50% Dax -0.63%
UST 10Y 0.64
Oil $38
Gold $1881/oz
BTCUSD $10706/oz.
Asia and the EU
GBP Mortgage Approvals 84.7K vs. 71K
North America Open
No Data
Equity markets were lower in a post-debate reaction as traders worried that the transition of power in America will not go smoothly given the incredibly acrimonious nature of the debate.
Last night’s first Presidential debate was the most tumultuous in modern history marred by constant interruptions, name-calling, and palpable hatred from both candidates towards one another. American voters have never witnessed a televised Presidential debate that had all the decorum of a high school cafeteria food fight and the immediate near-universal reaction was one of revulsion.
President

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In Markets – A Note of Caution Ahead of Debate

September 29, 2020

Equities give up gains in Europe
Cable pushes towards 1.2900
Nikkei1.32% Dax 0.67%
UST 10Y 0.65
Oil $40
Gold $1881/oz
BTCUSD $10754/oz.
Asia and the EU
GBP Mortgage Approvals 84.7K vs. 71K
North America Open
No Data
Markets were cautious today with equities giving up much of their Asia session gains in morning European dealing in listless, quiet trade as participants steeled themselves for the first Presidential debate at 0100 GMT.
Overall the tone in the market remains positive as investors continue to bet on the fact that the US will enact the 2nd round of fiscal stimulus by the end of the year and that along with the planned EU stimulus will serve as a major catalyst to economic rebound in 2021.
Much of that assumption however depends on the assumption that the US will have an

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Monday Starts with Risk On

September 28, 2020

Equities race higher by 1%
Markets remain upbeat bout rebound
Nikkei1.32% Dax 2.29%
UST 10Y 0.668
Oil $40
Gold $1855/oz
BTCUSD $10888/oz.
Asia and the EU
No Data
North America Open
No Data
Markets were in a decidedly upbeat mood rallying by 1% in morning European trade as traders ignored the latest political bombshell and focused on the global recovery story.
At the market open New York Times after obtaining the President’s tax returns reported that President Trump paid on $750 in Federal taxes while his businesses were swimming in losses and he has $400M+ repayment due next year that he personally guaranteed.
At any other time in history, such revelations would be cause for turmoil but the current hyperpartisan environment it is unclear just how much political damage these

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Market’s Ponder if the COVID Rebound is Done

September 25, 2020

Markets rangebound
Lack of catalysts into weekend trade
Nikkei 0.51% Dax -0.29%
UST 10Y 0.668
Oil $40
Gold $1870/oz
BTCUSD $10653/oz.
Asia and the EU
EUR Consumer Confidence 103.4 vs. 100.8
North America Open
USD Durable Good 8:30
Its been a very quiet rangebound night of trade with a slight risk-off tone in equities while currencies remained moribund as well with most market participants in wait and see mode as fresh catalysts were absent.
With no significant economic or political data on the docket today there is little to move the markets as equities continue to essentially consolidate. The V-shaped recovery theme is quickly losing its power as the latest economic data suggests that the greatest benefits of the rebound are behind us. While demand continues to pick up the marginal

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Risk Off Pervades as Markets Seek Stimulus

September 24, 2020

IFO shows futures expectations improve
SNB mildly positive
Nikkei -1.11% Dax -0.55%
UST 10Y 0.668
Oil $40
Gold $853/oz
BTCUSD $10340/oz.
Asia and the EU
CHF SNB rates unchanged
North America Open
USD Weekly Jobless Claims
Its been a quiet night of trade in Asia and early European opening with risk-off flows dominating dealing as equity indices were lower by 50 basis points while currencies were flat on the day.
Yesterday’s testimony by Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is in a wait and see mode with respect to monetary policy and is looking for Congress to act. Given the highly polarized state of politics in the US at the moment the markets do not expect action on any stimulus package with Congress barely able to agree on a continuing resolution in order to keep the government

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Is Bad Economic Data Actually Good for the Pound?

September 23, 2020

Big beat in German PMI
UK Services stalls
Nikkei 0.06% Dax 1.79%
UST 10Y 0.668
Oil $40
Gold $887/oz
BTCUSD $10490/oz.
Asia and the EU
RBNZ remains at 0.25%
EUR Flash PMI Manufacturing 53.7
GBP UK PMI Services 55.1
North America Open
USD Flash PMI 9:45
USD Chair Powell 10:00
Risk on flows persisted in Asian and early European trade with stock index futures slowly pushing higher as Nasdaq crossed the 11200 marks by mid-morning London dealing. In FX the price action was muc more muted with majors essentially treading water even as data from the region showed some improvement.
The biggest upside surprise of the night came from German PMI Manufacturing data which posted a very strong gain of 56.6 versus 52.0 eyed. According to Markit, “Goods producers reported ramping up production in

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Stocks Stabilize; Cable Hits a 2 Month Low

September 22, 2020

Nasdaq rises 0.50%
BOE Bailey will remain accommodative
Nikkei 0.18% Dax 0.97%
UST 10Y 0.672
Oil $40
Gold $1904/oz
BTCUSD $10485
Asia and the EU
No Data
North America Open
USD Existing Home Sales 8:30
Risk appetite returned to stocks tonight especially the Nasdaq index which was up more than 0.60% in early London trade while currencies were quieter with cable sliding to fresh two month lows.
There was little fresh newsflow to drive equity trade and the move appears to be a continuation of yesterday’s short-covering rally on the close which turned Nasdaq green after a sharp selloff earlier in the day. For now, traders appear to be in wait and see mode with Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress the main catalyst of trading later in the day.
On the FX front, the pound

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Volatile Week’s Open as Myriad Risks Weigh

September 21, 2020

Very volatile week open
COVID, Political risks weigh
Nikkei 0.18% Dax -2.70%
UST 10Y 0.666
Oil $40
Gold $1931/oz
BTCUSD $10818
Asia and the EU
No Data
North America Open
No Data
It’s been a very volatile open to weeks trade with equity futures down by as much 2% as COVID and political risks weighed on the markets with cable also seeing a lot of selling pressure.
Stocks were essentially a one-way trade to the downside today as a fresh wave of COVID infection in Western Europe sparked fears of a second round of lockdowns that could derail the nascent recovery in the region.
The COVID rise is particularly troubling in UK where a second lockdown could stifle what looked to be a strong consumer led rebound. Cable hit a six day low as a result trading below 1.2850. One key concern is that

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Markets Tread Water USDJPY Defies Flows

September 18, 2020

Very slight risk on in equities
FX flat
Nikkei 0.18% Dax 0.18%
UST 10Y 0.68
Oil $31
Gold $1955/oz
BTCUSD $11007
Asia and the EU
GBP UK Retail Sales 0.6%
North America Open
CAD Retail sales 8:30
It’s been a very quiet night of trade in the capital markets with equities slightly higher while FX was essentially flat.
Although there has been a mild risk on bid in Asian and early European trade today bullish sentiment has clearly cooled this week with Nasdaq feeling the most pain as investors have turned decidedly cautious.
The combination of less than stellar economic data and a hands-off Fed provided all the reasons needed for some profit-taking. As we noted earlier this week the tepid US Retail Sales numbers suggested that the easy part of the recovery trade is over while Fed’s wait

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Ahead of Fed – Its Risk On

September 16, 2020

Equities trade higher ahead of fed
Cable powers through 1.2900
Nikkei 0.09% Dax 0.31%
UST 10Y 0.68
Oil $39
Gold $1964/oz
BTCUSD $0919
Asia and the EU
GBP UK CPI 0.9%
North America Open
USD Retail Sales 8:30
USD FOMC 14:00
Equity markets were mildly higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision later today as traders anticipated the Fed to remain accommodative providing further support for stocks.
Stock index futures were higher by about 50 basis points while high beta FX like EURUSD and GBPUSD were also higher as markets maintained risk on bias going into the meeting.
Analysts anticipate that Fed Chair Powell will have to walk a very fine line by showing encouragement for the economic rebound, reiterating ongoing monetary support but at the same time offering no new stimulus as Fed officials

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China’s Recovery Helps Risk On Trade

September 15, 2020

Chinese data puts the bid in stocks
UK data helps pound
Nikkei 0.44% Dax 0.13%
UST 10Y 0.68
Oil $37
Gold $1963/oz
BTCUSD $0651
Asia and the EU
CNY IP 5.6% vs. 5.1%
GBP UK Jobless claims 77K vs. 93K
North America Open
No Data
Chinese data provided a boost to equities in late Asia and early European trade with stock index futures higher by 30 – 50 basis points while FX remained steady in a generally quiet session with little additional newsflow to move prices.
Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales printed better than expected at 5.6% vs. 5.1% and 0.5% vs. 0.0% respectively indicating that the economy was recovering quickly from the COVID induced slow down and that help put a bid underneath equities into the European morning.
The news was a welcome bit of data for bulls betting

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TikTok Rally Unwinds a Bit But Risk On Kicks of the Week

September 14, 2020

TikTok signals deal with Oracle
Dollar weakens
Nikkei 0.65% Dax 0.26%
UST 10Y 0.664
Oil $37
Gold $1946/oz
BTCUSD $10433
Asia and the EU
EU Ip
North America Open
No Data
Equity markets were higher at the start of week’s trade boosted by news that TikTok may have reached an agreement with Oracle but were off their best level by mid-morning European trade as sentiment remained cautious.
Stock index futures raced to near 2% gains by early European trade after TikTok announced a deal with Oracle, but the details remained murky and fell far short of an actual sale of US assets. Instead, Oracle would become a trusted partner if TikTok’s US customer data and Bytedance would restructure its operations. On the face of it, the TikTok deal appears more like a licensing arrangement rather than

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Stocks Resume Slide, Will ECB Stay Dovish?

September 10, 2020

Stocks turn negative in EU
ECB on tap
Nikkei -0.88 Dax 0.08%
UST 10Y 0.69
Oil $37
Gold $1946/oz
BTCUSD $10263
Asia and the EU
No data
North America Open
EUR ECB 8:30
USD Weekly Jobless 8:30
Markets were choppy in Asian and early European trade with equities first selling off then rallying to come back to even as traders squared up ahead of the ECB meeting later today and the latest unemployment claims data from the US.
Equities seesawed most of the night but found some buying into the London morning with Nasdaq recapturing the 11,400 level. Nasdaq has been the key index over the past week as it corrected violently dropping 10% off its all-time highs in just 3 days which was the fastest correction on record. For now, the high- tech index has held the 11,000 level and could mount a

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