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Home / Alhambra Investment Partners / Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 1: The Autumn(s) Of (Bond) Discontent

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 1: The Autumn(s) Of (Bond) Discontent

Summary:
115.1 Why do US Treasury Bonds lose value ‘every’ August !?———Ep 115.1 Summary———US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—’every’ August. But why?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International

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115.1 Why do US Treasury Bonds lose value ‘every’ August !?

———Ep 115.1 Summary———
US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—’every’ August. But why?

———Sponsor———
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.

———See It———

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

———Hear It———

Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
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iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
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Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
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Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

———Ep 115.1 Topics———

00:00 INTRO: US Treasury Bonds have lost rapidly recently – what does it mean?
02:29 USTs began to lose value after a Fed official appeared on CNBC with a Hawkish message.
04:26 USTs lost value, starting in August, in 2020 too. Are we observing UST seasonality?
07:42 USTs lost value, starting in August, in 2019 too. Are we observing UST seasonality?
09:19 USTs lost value, starting in August, in 2018 too. Are we observing UST seasonality?
11:49 USTs lost value, starting in September, in 2017. We are observing UST seasonality!
12:41 If USTs are seasonal is it merely convenient-narrative to explain why yields are rising?
14:21 A technical theory involving GSIB reporting requirements to explain UST seasonality.
21:51 The BIS shows bank derivative activity does in fact contract at year-end.

———Ep 115.1 References———

Finally The Taper Tantrum, Or What’s Wrong With August?: https://bit.ly/2XXJoRb
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, licensed to killustrate. Bassy James-Bond-style podcast intro/outro is “The New Black” by Mary Riddle found at Epidemic Sound.
https://www.epidemicsound.com/track/GU1yUMaCYK/

 


 

Jeffrey P. Snider
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

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