Saturday , July 24 2021
Home / Alhambra Investment Partners / Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 88, Part 1: What Eurodollar Curve Quirks Say About Inflation and the Future

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 88, Part 1: What Eurodollar Curve Quirks Say About Inflation and the Future

Summary:
88.1 Uh Oh! The Eurodollar Has Inverted (Again) ———Ep 88.1 Summary———When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there’s a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it’s not great news? ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It———

Topics:
Jeffrey P. Snider considers the following as important: , , , , , , , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Jeffrey P. Snider writes Maybe Interesting, Perhaps Somewhat Useful Other TIC Nuggets

Jeffrey P. Snider writes Yet Another Key Warning Sign, Piece Of Strong Evidence: TIC & The Long Misunderstood History of Selling Treasuries

Jeffrey P. Snider writes Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 2: Let’s Crack China’s RRR Code

Jeffrey P. Snider writes Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

88.1 Uh Oh! The Eurodollar Has Inverted (Again)

———Ep 88.1 Summary———
When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there’s a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it’s not great news?

———See It———

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

———Hear It———

Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

———Ep 88.1 Topics———

00:55 A Eurodollar futures curve is pregnant with insight about the future path of the economy.
01:28 Eurodollar futures represent the expected path of short-term rates (LIBOR) in the future.
04:23 Inverted yield curves presume future rates will be lower than what central bankers expect.
06:45 In June 2018 the Eurodollar futures curve inverted signaling caution and concern.
08:36 The June 2018 inversion was not an isolated warning in money / collateral markets.
10:32 December 2020 had ‘inverted’ – but in a manner suggesting a LIBOR spike.
12:44 December 2021 has ‘inverted’ – but in a manner suggesting a LIBOR spike.
14:37 More importantly, the Eurodollar curve is dead flat – saying the future isn’t bright.
17:39 The Eurodollar curve’s flatness and kink means there isn’t a flood of money available.

———Ep 88.1 References———

Eurodollar Curve Quirk Trivia, But Not Trivial To Anti-Inflation: https://bit.ly/2UFv51P
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Cupcake Delivery” by Dylan Sitts from Epidemic Sound.

 


Jeffrey P. Snider
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.