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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 60; Part 2: Oil Twisting

Summary:
60.2 Oil Market Issues Economic Warning———Part 2 Summary———The headline oil price has been falling since early-March, but insiders were alerted 10 days earlier of possible trouble by the futures curve. What is contango? What is backwardation? Do oil futures tell us the economy is struggling to gain additional liftoff? ———Episode 60 Intro——— Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, in which he observes the 20th anniversary of quantitative easing and notes the unsettling twist in oil futures; also, he reacts to the Federal Reserve Chairman who recently likened the Fed’s actions last year, to the heroic Dunkirk evacuation.Your podcaster on the other hand comes out of the gate staggering by slandering everyone’s favorite nation: New Zealand. Operating under the false impression

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60.2 Oil Market Issues Economic Warning

———Part 2 Summary———
The headline oil price has been falling since early-March, but insiders were alerted 10 days earlier of possible trouble by the futures curve. What is contango? What is backwardation? Do oil futures tell us the economy is struggling to gain additional liftoff?

———Episode 60 Intro———

Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, in which he observes the 20th anniversary of quantitative easing and notes the unsettling twist in oil futures; also, he reacts to the Federal Reserve Chairman who recently likened the Fed’s actions last year, to the heroic Dunkirk evacuation.

Your podcaster on the other hand comes out of the gate staggering by slandering everyone’s favorite nation: New Zealand. Operating under the false impression that The Hobbit was a documentary, this podcaster opens the show asserting New Zealand is home to all manner of fantastic creatures like the platypus, narwhal, orcs and elves. The YouTube comments were aflame with polite indignation. The narwhal belongs to the Arctic, not Antarctic. Worse yet, the platypus is endemic to the only country in the world that doesn’t care for New Zealand: Australia.

To make amends this podcaster watched BBC Planet Earth with New Zealand’s fourth most popular guitar-based digi-bongo acapella-rap-funk-comedy folk duo Bret McKenzie and Jemaine Clement. So dear audience, please squint your ears at the start of the episode. When you hear “platypus”, receive Fiordland Crested Penguin, which is twice the size of a normal-sized man.  When you hear “narwhal”, instead pick up Kakapo, a parrot that identifies as an owl. When you hear “orcs”, perceive Kiwi, like the bald eagle but flightless and with fur. And when you hear “elves”, glean Weka another flightless bird with the legs of a witch, a taste for pickled olives and a cholesterol problem.

———SEE IT———–

Twitter: https://twitter.com/izakaminska
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

———Hear It———

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———Ep 60.2 Topics———

00:05 What shape does an oil futures curve take in a healthy economy?
02:44 Why might the front of the curve disagree with the rest of the curve? Is it a warning?
05:26 An alarming contraction / reduction in the WTI curve’s backwardation. Is it a warning?
07:35 Oil is but one economic account that has inflected away from fine and towards not super
09:46 Curves – in oil or rates – bear volumes of information about the monetary state / economy

———Ep 60.2 References———

OK, NYMEX, Go On…: https://bit.ly/3cqAmkn
OK NYMEX, Beginning To Notice The Fine Print?: https://bit.ly/3rsmYAs
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———WHO———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.

 


Jeffrey P. Snider
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

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