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Jeffrey P. Snider considers the following as important: bonds, commodities, currencies, Economy, Eurodollar University, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Making Sense, markets, Stocks
This could be interesting, too:
Jeffrey P. Snider writes Since There Is No Tantrum, Can We Taper The Dots Instead?
Jeffrey P. Snider writes Hey Jay, Maybe Check The Swaps Before Committing to Taper
Jeffrey P. Snider writes Previewing The Taper Theater
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, addicted to Jolt Cola pop. Artwork by David Parkins.
35.2 Plummeting Unemployment Rate a Mirage (again)
America’s unemployment rate plummeted from 14.7% to 6.9% in six short months! But it’s the same 2010-15 mirage. Even the Federal Reserve doesn’t believe it – that’s why they edited away the idea of “full employment” in August 2020.
00:05 The Establishment Survey / Payroll Report delivered good HEADLINE news about employment
01:54 The Household Survey produced even better HEADLINE news about the unemployment rate
04:02 The V-shaped recovery of the unemployment rate is a MIRAGE, a feint – just like before
07:11 FRB/US is a large-scale estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy
08:16 FRB/US informed the Yellen Fed in 2015 that full employment had been reached – nope
10:23 The Fed lowered the “full employment” rate a DOZEN times between 2015-19 – bananas!
14:04 Does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey agree with the good unemployment rate?
16:46 Jay Powell is asking for fiscal help – which makes sense – but implies QE isn’t a cure all
Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown: https://bit.ly/32GaxaE
Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers: https://bit.ly/3psbbT1
QE Didn’t JOLT (again): https://bit.ly/2UswUfw
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7