Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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What About Copper?
The FOMC hates the bond market. Hates everything about it, especially how it tells these Economists they don’t know what they are doing. Monetary policy being little more than a vanity project, that’s not going to work for the people practicing it. OK, if you don’t like bonds then how about something else besides the stock market? Some independent corroboration of one side or the other. One of the first prices to sniff out the end of Reflation...
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The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story
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China’s Big Stimulus
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Proposed Negative Rates Really Expose The Bond Market’s Appreciation For What Is Nothing More Than Magic Number Theory
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Three-For-One In Poor Housing Data
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The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US Economy
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Japan’s Surprise Positive Is A Huge Minus
BEA
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Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2017
Real state personal income grew 2.6 percent in 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in 2016, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real state personal income is a state's current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state's regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. The percent change in real state personal income ranged from 4.5 percent in New York to -1.3 percent...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018 (preliminary)
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Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (advance estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019
BK Asset Management
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How EU Elections Could Impact EURO
EU Elections & Potential Euro Impact Daily FX Market Roundup May 22, 2019 Keep an eye on EURO because there could be big moves in the currency over the next few days. European elections kick off on Thursday and the rising power of a nationalist euro-skeptic movement has many investors worried that populist parties could make strong headway. Elections will be held in 28 countries across the European Union for seats in the 751-member...
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Cable at Fresh Lows as May’s Plan DOA
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Dollar Flexes Muscles Ahead of EU Elections
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FX: 10 Key Events to Watch this Week
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Why Aussie Could Go Higher and Euro Lower This Week.
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How Low Can EURO, AUD, & GBP Go?
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The Weakest Currency of Them All…
Bull Markets
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Certain parts of the market are being hammered. What this means for the S&P
While the stock market remains close to all-time highs, certain sectors and markets that are more closely related to global trade (trade war!) are being hammered. This highlights a clear dichotomy that is evident among many indicators. Today’s headlines: Improving Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Boom-Bust Barometer – bust? Semiconductors have crashed Dr. Copper has crashed VIX’s bottom Baa Corporate Bond Yields are falling Go here to...
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Several other markets and indicators are not confirming the stock market’s rally
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Announcing email alerts for our models’ trade signals
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: stock market’s medium term is still bullish, but biggest short term risk is the trade war
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May 16, 2019: leading indicators macro update
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Is someone secretly smashing the stock market at night?
Calculated Risk
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Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 212 thousand last week.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 678 thousand SAAR, down from 692 thousand in March.• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.
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FOMC Minutes: "A patient approach … would likely remain appropriate for some time"
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in April
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AIA: "Slight rebound for architecture billings in April"
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
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Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
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Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Senator Sanders and Representative Lee Propose to Make Wall Street Pay
This week Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Barbara Lee are introducing bills in the Senate and House for a financial transaction tax (FTT). Their proposed tax is similar to, albeit somewhat higher than, the FTT proposed by Senator Brian Schatz earlier this year. The Sanders-Lee proposal would impose a 0.5 percent tax on stock transactions, ...
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The Oversight Options Available to the House Financial Services Committee
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Groups Appeal to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on BB&T-SunTrust Merger
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A Mother’s Day Letter to America
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The State of Child Care and Early Education in the US
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Groups Call for Oversight of BB&T-SunTrust Merger
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The Social Security Trustees Consistently Agree: The Program is Well-Funded
Charles Hugh Smith
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Technology Is Not Just Disruptive, It’s Disastrously Deflationary
Deflation eats credit-dependent, mass-consumption economies alive from the inside. While AI (artificial intelligence) garners the headlines, the next wave of disruptive technologies extend far beyond AI: as the chart of technologies rapidly being adopted shows, this wave includes new materials and processes as well as the "usual suspects" of machine learning, natural language processing, data mining and so on. While many voices...
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Two Intertwined Dynamics Are Transforming the Economy: Technology and Financialization
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The Normalization and Institutionalization of Fraud
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Downward Mobility Matters More Than Liberal-Conservative Labels
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The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century–and Not for the Better
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Burnout Nation
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Is China’s Belt & Road a Decade Too Late?
Commodity Blog
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Natural Gas Rises Despite Increase in US Supplies
Natural gas futures are rising on Thursday after the US government reported an increase in domestic stockpiles. The weekly gain was as the market had anticipated. Contracts are also finding direction on reports that Saudi Arabia is set to purchase a significant amount of natural gas from the US, which could decrease domestic stocks and signify a dramatic shift from crude oil. July natural gas futures tacked on $0.02, or 0.77%, to $2.56 per...
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US Crude Crashes As Data Reveals Unexpected Surge in Supplies
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Video: Charts of Gold as of May 22, 2019
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Bitcoin Bulls Take Another Run at $8,000
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Soybean Rebounds As Wet Weather Threatens 2019 Yields
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Crude Oil Mixed as Outlook for OPEC Cuts Uncertain
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Metals Demonstrate Mixed Performance as US-China Trade War Escalates
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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21/5/19: ‘Popping up everywhere’ or not? Entrepreneurship and start ups
Much has been written, taught and said about the New Age of Entrepreneurship and the new generations of entrepreneurs, allegedly springing up across the modern economies. The problem is, for all the marketing hype and academic programs enthusiasm, entrepreneurship (new business formation) is actually running pretty low.Here is the U.S. data on new business formation: While other data, e.g. Kauffman Foundation, shows relatively stable and...
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19/519: FocusEconomics 75 Top Economics Influencers List
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16/5/19: Identifying Debt Bubble 4.0
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16/5/19: Gundlach on the U.S. Economy and Debt Super-cycle
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14/5/19: Agent Trumpovich Fails to Deliver… Again…
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14/5/19: TrueEconomics makes Top 100 Blogs by the Intelligent Economist
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14/5/19: Monetary Policy at the edge of QE
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: Throwing In The Towel At Exactly The Wrong Time?
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week, we do the following: discuss an important issue for traders;highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas;feature advice from top traders and writers; andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Determines the Agenda for Investment News?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Stalemate?
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Stock Exchange: Do You Trade News Cycles Or Market Cycles?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Fear A Market Top?
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Stock Exchange: The Future “Ain’t” What It Used To Be
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Weighing the Week Ahead: How to Watch the Information Avalanche
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Kansas City Fed Survey: Modest Growth in May
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The latest index came in at 4, down from 5 last month, which indicates that activity expanded in April. The future outlook increased to 12 from 11 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. New seasonal adjustment factors were incorporated, which adjusted historical indexes and will be used moving forward.
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New Home Sales Down 6.9% in April
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K from Last Week, Beats Forecast
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
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Understanding the CFNAI Components
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Chicago Fed: “Index points to slower economic growth in April”
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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
The Progressives claim that—despite the (Old) New Deal, the Great Society, and Obamacare—the incomes of the vast majority of Americans have stagnated for three decades and that income distribution remains disturbingly unequal and must be fixed with more progressive taxes. Who would know better than Joseph Stiglitz? After all, he is a Nobel laureate in economics. In 1972, I took Stiglitz’s course on microeconomics in Yale’s PhD program. He gave...
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S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
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Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
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Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
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Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
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Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
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Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”
Eurostat News Releases
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Household energy prices in the EU increased compared with 2017
Download PDF
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Euro was the most used currency for EU exports and US dollars for EU imports in 2018
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Production in construction down by 0.3% in euro area
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Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €22.5 bn
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GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area
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Industrial production down by 0.3% in euro area
Global Macro Monitor
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Stress Testing Apple
Goldman finally getting around to stress testing Apple as the trade war escalates. They are out today warning Apple is in a world of hurt if China targets the iPhone maker in the trade war. The U.S.-China trade war could take a big chunk out of Apple’s bottom line if China retaliates by banning its products, according to an analyst at Goldman Sachs. Analyst Rod Hall said in a note to clients that Apple’s earnings could drop by 29% if the...
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Key S&P Levels
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Heeee’s Back…Karl, Is That You?
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BFTD: Rare Earth Day 5.0
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The Economy Heads South
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Who Pays The Tariffs?
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How Strong Is The U.S. Economy?
Humble student of the markets
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Buy, or fade the breakout?
Mid-week market update: The market strength this week was no surprise to me based on my seasonal analysis I published on the weekend (see Will a volatility collapse lead to a market collapse?). Last week was option expiry (OpEx) week, and OpEx weeks have historically been bullish for stocks. In particular, Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges found that April OpEx week was one of the most bullish ones of the year. However, last week saw the...
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A Healthcare rebirth? And broader market implications
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Will a volatility collapse lead to a market collapse?
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Debunking VIXmageddon and other bear myths
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Can the market advance continue? Watch China!
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How “patient” can the Fed be?
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Selections for a new bullish impulse
Lance Roberts RIA
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The Corporate Maginot Line
Since the post-financial crisis era began more than a decade ago, record low-interest rates and the Fed’s acquisition of $4 trillion of the highest quality fixed-income assets has led investors to scratch and claw for any asset, regardless of quality, offering returns above the rate of inflation. Financial media articles and Wall Street research discussing this dynamic are a dime-a-dozen. What we have not heard a peep about, however, are...
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5-Things Savvy Investors Should Know About Social Security
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Fundamentally Speaking: 7-Measures Suggest A Decade Of Low Returns
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The 5-Laws Of Human Stupidity & How To Be A “Non-Stupid” Investor
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The Bulls Are Betting On A “Long Shot” 05-17-19
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Record-Setting Art Sales Confirm Global Liquidity Bubble
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The Run For The Roses
Naked Capitalism
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How Trump’s ‘America First’ Trade Strategy Is Accelerating America’s Decline
By Marshall Auerback, a market analyst and commentator. Produced by Economy for All, a project of the Independent Media Institute The United States has increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products to 25 percent, and Beijing has responded in kind on $60 billion worth of American goods. More tit for tat appears to be on the way: the Trump administration is now openly deliberating whether to impose additional tariffs on a further...
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Links 5/23/19
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Is Theresa May Finally Over?
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FAA Won’t Say When Boeing 737 Max Might Fly Again; Foreign Regulators Uppity
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Documenting the Train Wreck: Atmospheric CO2 Is Now Higher Than Ever in Human History, and Rising
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2:00PM Water Cooler 5/22/2019
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Bankruptcy: An Option for Taxi Drivers Crushed by Medallion Loans?
The Barrel Blog
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Mexico’s liberalized natural gas market in an era of nationalism
In December, Mexico’s energy market reform turned five years old. The event was unceremoniously marked by the inauguration of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO—a nationalist, left-leaning presidential candidate elected partly on a promise to dismantle it. While the recent growth of Mexico’s reformed gas market has surpassed the expectations of many, it now faces new challenges ahead. In an early move that rattled investors, president-elect...
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IMO 2020 could create fierce competition for scarce water resources
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US war with Iran unlikely, but would devastate oil markets: Fuel for Thought
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Energy and commodities highlights: Middle East tensions, Panama Canal, global EV sales
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Evolving battery technology will alter demand for raw materials
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Increased trade tensions could squelch US crude flow to China
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African swine flu impact spreads over Chinese economy, global commodity prices
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Kansas City Fed Survey: Modest Growth in May
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The latest index came in at 4, down from 5 last month, which indicates that activity expanded in April. The future outlook increased to 12 from 11 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. New seasonal adjustment factors were incorporated, which adjusted historical indexes and will be used moving forward.
Read more » -
New Home Sales Down 6.9% in April
-
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K from Last Week, Beats Forecast
-
The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
-
Understanding the CFNAI Components
-
Chicago Fed: “Index points to slower economic growth in April”
-
Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
The Barrel Blog
-
Mexico’s liberalized natural gas market in an era of nationalism
In December, Mexico’s energy market reform turned five years old. The event was unceremoniously marked by the inauguration of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO—a nationalist, left-leaning presidential candidate elected partly on a promise to dismantle it. While the recent growth of Mexico’s reformed gas market has surpassed the expectations of many, it now faces new challenges ahead. In an early move that rattled investors, president-elect...
Read more » -
IMO 2020 could create fierce competition for scarce water resources
-
US war with Iran unlikely, but would devastate oil markets: Fuel for Thought
-
Energy and commodities highlights: Middle East tensions, Panama Canal, global EV sales
-
Evolving battery technology will alter demand for raw materials
-
Increased trade tensions could squelch US crude flow to China
-
African swine flu impact spreads over Chinese economy, global commodity prices
Eurostat News Releases
-
Household energy prices in the EU increased compared with 2017
Download PDF
Read more » -
Euro was the most used currency for EU exports and US dollars for EU imports in 2018
-
Production in construction down by 0.3% in euro area
-
Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €22.5 bn
-
GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area
-
Industrial production down by 0.3% in euro area
Commodity Blog
-
Natural Gas Rises Despite Increase in US Supplies
Natural gas futures are rising on Thursday after the US government reported an increase in domestic stockpiles. The weekly gain was as the market had anticipated. Contracts are also finding direction on reports that Saudi Arabia is set to purchase a significant amount of natural gas from the US, which could decrease domestic stocks and signify a dramatic shift from crude oil. July natural gas futures tacked on $0.02, or 0.77%, to $2.56 per...
Read more » -
US Crude Crashes As Data Reveals Unexpected Surge in Supplies
-
Video: Charts of Gold as of May 22, 2019
-
Bitcoin Bulls Take Another Run at $8,000
-
Soybean Rebounds As Wet Weather Threatens 2019 Yields
-
Crude Oil Mixed as Outlook for OPEC Cuts Uncertain
-
Metals Demonstrate Mixed Performance as US-China Trade War Escalates
BEA
-
Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2017
Real state personal income grew 2.6 percent in 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in 2016, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real state personal income is a state's current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state's regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. The percent change in real state personal income ranged from 4.5 percent in New York to -1.3 percent...
Read more » -
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018 (preliminary)
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Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (advance estimate)
-
Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019
Humble student of the markets
-
Buy, or fade the breakout?
Mid-week market update: The market strength this week was no surprise to me based on my seasonal analysis I published on the weekend (see Will a volatility collapse lead to a market collapse?). Last week was option expiry (OpEx) week, and OpEx weeks have historically been bullish for stocks. In particular, Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges found that April OpEx week was one of the most bullish ones of the year. However, last week saw the...
Read more » -
A Healthcare rebirth? And broader market implications
-
Will a volatility collapse lead to a market collapse?
-
Debunking VIXmageddon and other bear myths
-
Can the market advance continue? Watch China!
-
How “patient” can the Fed be?
-
Selections for a new bullish impulse
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
-
Stress Testing Apple
Goldman finally getting around to stress testing Apple as the trade war escalates. They are out today warning Apple is in a world of hurt if China targets the iPhone maker in the trade war. The U.S.-China trade war could take a big chunk out of Apple’s bottom line if China retaliates by banning its products, according to an analyst at Goldman Sachs. Analyst Rod Hall said in a note to clients that Apple’s earnings could drop by 29% if the...
Read more » -
Key S&P Levels
-
Heeee’s Back…Karl, Is That You?
-
BFTD: Rare Earth Day 5.0
-
The Economy Heads South
-
Who Pays The Tariffs?
-
How Strong Is The U.S. Economy?
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
The Progressives claim that—despite the (Old) New Deal, the Great Society, and Obamacare—the incomes of the vast majority of Americans have stagnated for three decades and that income distribution remains disturbingly unequal and must be fixed with more progressive taxes. Who would know better than Joseph Stiglitz? After all, he is a Nobel laureate in economics. In 1972, I took Stiglitz’s course on microeconomics in Yale’s PhD program. He gave...
Read more » -
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
-
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
-
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
-
Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”