Monday: New Home Sales

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 25, 2021• FOMC Preview: Probably Too Soon for Hints on TaperingMonday:• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 800 thousand SAAR, up from 769 thousand in May.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).Oil prices were up over the...

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 3: Bitcoin’s El Salvador Conundrum Easily Untangled By Realizing the Real Dollar Situation

89.3 The Real Reason El Salvador went Crypto———Ep 89.3 Summary———El Salvador announced its crypto intentions seemingly out of the blue. But a closer look reveals the nation had run dangerously short of (euro)dollars in early 2021. It went to the IMF for a bailout. Now it heads to the crypto world for one. Just like people did in the 14th-century. Wait, what?! ———See It———...

Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2020

The U.S. direct investment abroad  position, or cumulative level of investment, increased $244.9 billion to $6.15 trillion at the end of 2020 from $5.91 trillion at the end of 2019, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The increase reflected a $158.8 billion increase in the position in Europe, primarily in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. By industry, holding company affiliates owned by U.S....

FX Outlook: What to Expect for EURO Post ECB

FX Outlook: What to Expect for EURO Post ECB Daily FX Market Roundup 07.22.2021 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management The European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement was the most important event this week but it did not inspire any breakout moves for EUR/USD. This of course is exactly what central bankers hoped for which is limited volatility when big announcements are made. For the ECB, their first...

Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00

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Monday: New Home Sales

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 25, 2021• FOMC Preview: Probably Too Soon for Hints on TaperingMonday:• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 800 thousand SAAR, up from 769 thousand in May.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).Oil prices were up over the...

America Has Lost the Trade War with China, and the Real Pain Has Yet to Begin

Corporate America sacrificed national interests in service of greed, and so did the U.S. government. As we all know, the source of Corporate America's unprecedented explosion in profits in the 21st century is the offshoring of manufacturing to China. If you doubt this, please study the chart below of corporate profits. Apologists claim many excuses in an attempt to evade the central role of offshoring production to China, but they all ring...

Commodities Corner: Lean Hogs Rally to Record High, Coffee Slips on Suez Canal Relief

Spilling a Cup of Cocoa   Cocoa futures ended the trading week below $2,400 per metric ton as demand concerns weighed on the agricultural commodity. Contracts are settling near their lowest levels since the beginning of November.   Cocoa’s direction is being mostly driven by the resurgence of coronavirus infections across Europe, a major market for the crop. As COVID-19 cases skyrocket, many jurisdictions are instituting new lockdowns...

Chinese manufacturers forced to halt production in Vietnam as coronavirus surge grows

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Chinese manufacturers in Vietnam are struggling amid the country’s worst coronavirus outbreak so far, with one business in the hard-hit south “losing tens of thousands of US dollars” a day.Fuelled by the fast-spreading Delta variant, cases have surged in the Southeast Asian nation in recent months, hitting another record high of 6,194 new infections on Thursday.Authorities in Ho Chi Minh City, the...

23/6/21: Covid19 Deaths and Income Inequality

An interesting, although intuitively straight forward note on the determinants of Covid19 deaths: https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1407418434955005955. As Youyang Gu @youyanggu states, "I believe income inequality is the single best predictor of total Covid deaths in the US. Not income, but income *inequality*. The R^2 is surprisingly high: 0.35."There are some potentially important issues with this analysis (some are explored...

New Health Care Insurance Subsidies in the USA

The $1.9 trillion covid19 relief law (American Rescue Plan Act) includes large increases in health insurance subsidies in addition to the $1,400 per person payments to individuals. The law increases subsidies for 2 years. Under the new law, nobody will have to pay more than 8.5% of their income on health insurance. The government will also pick up 100% of COBRA premiums through September. COBRA is health insurance for people who’ve lost...

Bad News

It’s Derek again. My dad, Jeff Miller, died on May 7, 2021. It was a total shock. Even though he had been hospitalized for over two months, all indications were that he was recovering steadily. Just the day before, he had been deemed stable enough to be transferred out of a step-down hospital and into a rehab facility. We really thought the worst was behind us. With that in mind, I apologize for the delay in reporting the bad news. It’s...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Soaring

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P 500 dropped upon open on Monday only to spend the rest of the week rising. The index ended the week at another record high, up four out of five days. It is up 1% from Thursday and up 17.5% YTD.

Fast & Furious Business Cycle

The current business cycle has been unprecedented. It has been fast and furious so far. Last year’s recession was among the worst in US history, but it lasted just two months. The V-shaped recovery in real GDP has been one of the fastest on record, with real GDP likely to surpass its previous Q4-2019 record high during the current quarter. That means that the full recovery in real GDP lasted five quarters, with the economy now in the expansion...

Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform

Enemies Real and Imagined

Today I want to share three things I think I know based on what Radiant, our platform for analyzing the prevalence of various narratives in markets, has been telling us. Then I want to share what I think I think about what that means. First, what I think I know. And no, I don’t think any of this is particularly earth-shattering or controversial. I think I know that the prevailing structure of central bank narratives is that the Fed...

Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy

Following an extensive review that included numerous public events across the country, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday announced the unanimous approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates its approach to monetary policy and serves as the foundation for its policy actions. The updates reflect changes in the economy over the past decade and how policymakers are...

Ignore The Bond Market Flapdoodle

CK is still in the fight of her life.  Again, we ask that everybody, everywhere please bring all and whatever you got in the form of prayers, thoughts, positive energy, manifestations, visualizations, anything and everything with powerful intensity her way. We have been working on this post for some time and want to get it out before the data are too stale.   We will break it up into three or four pieces because our analysis of the...

Weekly Indicators for July 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha

- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.No visible impact on the economy yet due to the Delta wave. In March 2020, the first indicator to tip over was restaurant reservations. I would expect that to be the first item to suffer now as well.As usual, clicking over and reading will not only bring you up to the virtual moment, but bring me a penny or two for my efforts.

Measuring the effects of the Fed’s reversal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following...

At Age of Economics: How Should an Economist Be?

The website Age of Economics has been carrying out a series of interviews with economists about what the purpose of the discipline it is, and what its relationship is to capitalism as a historical social system. I believe there will be 52 of these interviews, one each week over the course of 2021. Earlier this spring, they interviewed Arjun Jayadev and myself. You can watch video of the interview here. I’ve pasted the transcript below. Q: Why...

Technically Speaking: Hedge Funds Ramp Up Exposure

PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in speculative options trading, and taking out personal loans to invest, it’s all evidence of overconfident investors. However, that “risk appetite” is...

Enguard Lagarde

Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan's markets are closed today and tomorrow.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's rally, and with today's ~0.8% gain, it is up on the week.  US equities are also trading with a firmer bias.  The 10-year US...

Mish's Talk 1970-01-01 00:00:00

Maven is a best-in-class technology platform empowering premium publishers who impact, inform, educate and entertain.We operate the media businesses for Sports Illustrated and TheStreet, and power over 140 brands including History, Maxim, and Biography. Maven is publicly traded under the ticker symbol MVEN.

2:00PM Water Cooler 7/21/2021

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day * * * #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart from 91-DIVOC. The data is the Johns Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I feel I’m engaging in a macabre form of tape-watching…. Vaccination by region: Flattened, interestingly. This after only 48.7% of the US population is fully vaccinated. (For those following at along at home, that’s not even a majority). And our public...

Join us at The Daily Shot

Please join us at The Daily Shot.The Daily Shot® (TheDailyShot.com) is a niche graphical newsletter (see sample) that is not meant for broad distribution. Our objective is to work with a small group of professionals who are interested in a brief unbiased daily overview of global macro currents. We do not offer investment advice or trading recommendations, and nothing in The Daily Shot® should be interpreted as such.The Daily Shot® began as an...

Peak oil is coming, it’s just a question of when: Fuel for Thought

October marks a historic but largely forgotten moment in the history of the oil sector, and something which is unlikely to ever be repeated if forecasts for the demise of the world’s most valuable fossil fuel prove accurate. Fifty years ago, BP – then known as British Petroleum and state-owned – discovered oil off the coast of Scotland in the once mighty Forties field with the help of a GBP370 million loan. The financing would be equivalent to...

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 25 July 2021

Our trio of proprietary strategies continued to trail their common benchmark last week (through Friday, July 23). The gap ranged from slight to substantial. continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now

[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....

Move Over COVID: A Drug Resistant Super Bug Fungus Is Now Being Reported In Texas And Washington D.C.

Move Over COVID: A Drug Resistant Super Bug Fungus Is Now Being Reported In Texas And Washington D.C. Just when you thought things couldn't get any better on the global health landscape, along comes one of those pesky drug-resistant superbug fungi. An outbreak of such a "superbug" has spread among patients in hospitals and long-term care ...