Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
-
What Has Markets Spooked? Probably Something To Do With That Huge Offshore Dollar Hole
Like a shark smelling blood in the water, I don’t care that the blood is in the water from leaking out of what will be a dead horse, if it isn’t deceased already. I pretty much intend to beat on it one way or another. The issue isn’t just fed funds, it’s why anyone cares about that market at all in 2019. The answer, as even FRBNY admits this week (the dead horse), is how the monetary world is much more complex than you’ve ever been told. It’s...
Read more » -
The Lying Statistics Behind Globally Synchronized Growth, And What It Could Mean For The Globally Synchronized Downturn
-
Much More Than Rate Cuts On (Dis)Inflation
-
Dollar Destruction Potential: From China ‘Outflows’ To The FOMC Considering QE5
-
As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’
-
A Trickle of Belgian Colored Deutsche Bank Speculation
-
Embroiled by Fed Funds, FRBNY 143 Months After BNP Finally Says ‘Offshore’
BEA
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $55.5 Billion +8.4%° Exports: $210.6 Billion +2.0%° Imports: $266.2 Billion +3.3%° Next release: August 2, 2019 (°) Statistical significance is not...
Read more » -
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2018
-
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, First Quarter 2019 (Revised Estimate)
-
U.S. Net International Investment Position, First Quarter 2019, Year 2018, and Annual Update
-
State Quarterly Personal Income, first quarter 2019
-
U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2019 and Annual Update
BK Asset Management
-
Dollar Weakness Persists Post Powell
Market Drivers July 11, 2019 BOE Financial Stability Report offers nothing new 2nd Day of Powell Nikkei 0.51% Dax 0.14% UST 10Y 2.05% Oil $60/bbl Gold $1423/oz. Europe and Asia: BoE Financial Stibility Report North America: USD CPI 8:30 USD Powell Testifies to Senate 10:00 It’s been a very subdued night of trade in FX with the exception of USDJPY which tested support below the 108.00 in early Asia trade as dollar selling continued in the wake...
Read more » -
If Powell is Hawkish Where are the Trades?
-
FX: Powell vs. Bank of Canada vs. Fed Minutes
-
Buck Holds BId in Quiet Market
-
Forex: This is the #1 Event Risk This Week
-
FX Starts the Week in Cautious Mode
-
Dollar Bulls Regain Control After Non-Farm Payrolls
Bull Markets
-
Weekly update: our models & indices right now
This login form allows you to access member-only content. If you are a member of the Bull Markets Membership Program, please login below to access the member-only content. Otherwise, please click here to learn more about joining the Bull Markets Membership Program. See you in there!
Read more » -
Market outlook: is the stock market about to soar after a big breakout?
-
July 12, 2019: leading indicators macro update
-
When this happens, the stock market goes up 100% of the time
-
Conference Board LEI Model (NASDAQ version)
-
What will an earnings recession do to stocks?
-
Recession probabilities increase as breadth weakens. What’s next for stocks
Calculated Risk
-
Ten Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
Note: This is the 15th year I've been writing this blog. Sometimes it is fun to look back, especially at turning points. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).And here are a couple of posts I wrote exactly 10...
Read more » -
NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State"
-
Sunday Night Futures
-
30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 4.0%
-
Schedule for Week of July 14, 2019
-
Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
-
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
Center for Economic and Policy Research
-
Labor Market Policy Research Reports, June 2019
CEPR regularly publishes a curated collection of original research from academic institutions and nonprofits on the state of the US labor market. The compilation is part of our ongoing effort to promote informed debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) Policy Basics: ...
Read more » -
Private Equity in Higher Education: A Full Ride at Student and Taxpayer Expense?
-
June Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
-
Hours of Work No Longer Declining and the Climate May Pay the Price
-
How Well Do Leading 2020 Candidates Understand the Executive Branch?
-
The Lazy Father Saga
-
Could a Progressive President Expand Medicaid and Medicare by Increasing the Poverty Line?
Charles Hugh Smith
-
“Alexa, How Do We Subvert Big Tech’s Orwellian Internet-of-Things Surveillance?”
Convenience is the sales pitch, but the real goal is control in service of maximizing profits and extending state power. When every device in your life is connected to the Internet (the Internet of Things), your refrigerator will schedule an oil change for your car--or something like that--and it will be amazingly wunnerful. You'll be able to lower the temperature of your home office while you're stuck in a traffic jam, while your fridge...
Read more » -
Predatory “Green Capitalism” Is Monetizing the Air, and It’s Going to Cost You
-
When Everything from Bat Guano to Quatloos Is Soaring, Speculative Euphoria Has Reached an Extreme
-
What’s Left to Monetize?
-
Vested Interests in Charge = Guaranteed Failure
-
America’s Concealed Crisis: Fifty Years of Economic Decline, 1969 to 2019
-
Following in Rome’s Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Inequality
Commodity Blog
-
Symmetrical Triangle on Daily Chart of Gold as of 2019-07-14
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart of gold. Being a continuation pattern, it suggests that after a period of consolidation prices will go in the previous direction, up in this instance. It is important to remember that patterns do not predict performance with a 100% guarantee as was demonstrated when a similar pattern formed two weeks ago, but prices broke to the downside before rebounding. On the present chart,...
Read more » -
Commodities Technical Analysis, July 15th — July 19th
-
Crude Oil Gets Support from Falling Oil Rigs Count, Gulf of Mexico Production
-
Gold Posts 1% Weekly Gain on Weaker Dollar, Dovish Fed
-
Natural Gas Gains 1% Despite Bearish Supply News, Price Forecast
-
Fundamentals Continue to Support Crude Oil
-
Copper Surges on Renewed US-China Trade Talks, Capped by Weak Manufacturing
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
-
13/7/19: A New Era of Entrepreneurship? Not in Data so Far…
We are living in the Great New Era of Entrepreneurship that started in 2013 (according to someone at Forbes) and the academia is pumping high entrepreneurship training and education (the Golden Era, according to some don from Stanford). Living in all of this 'game changing' stuff around you can be daunting, inducing FOMO and other behavioural nudges toward dropping everything and launching that new unicorn doing something disruptive and raking...
Read more » -
13/7/19: Mapping the declines in jobs creation
-
13/7/19: BRICS and G7
-
13/7/19: BRICS Current Account Surpluses: Its Russia and China Story
-
13/7/19: Russian v European Dependency Ratios: 1950-2100
-
13/7/19: Great Recession in Europe and the U.S. Great Depression
-
10/7/19: Financialising Stagnant Growth: From Japanified Economy to Christine Lagarde
Dash of Insight
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: How Much Has Economic Weakness Hurt Corporate Earnings?
The economic calendar is normal and includes several important reports. I am especially interested in the housing data and retail sales. More important than the economic data is the start of earnings season. With everyone convinced about economic deterioration, expect the pundits to be asking: How much has the weak global economy affected corporate earnings? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I asked who was really running the Fed. That...
Read more » -
Stock Exchange: Are You Guilty Of Risk Creep?
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Who Really Runs the Fed?
-
Payroll Employment Data: You Can’t Believe Your Eyes
-
Stock Exchange: Climbing The Wall Of Worry
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?
-
Stock Exchange: Are You Missing The Big Picture?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
-
S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Over 3000
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P started the week below its record high only to jump mid-week amid news of a potential interest rate cut. The index is up over 20% YTD, up 0.78% from last week and has reached a record-breaking 3,013.77
Read more » -
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
-
June Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.3 MoM
-
Underlying Inflation Gauge: June Update
-
A Long-Term Look at Inflation
-
Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components
-
What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Embezzelcoin
In late 2017, when bitcoin was soaring toward a record-high price of $18,961 on 12/18/17, a distant relative asked me what I thought about the cryptocurrency. He had bought one bitcoin when it was around $4,000 in mid-2017. I said it reminds me of digital tulips. “What do you mean?,” he responded. He is a Millennial who had never heard of the Dutch Tulip Bubble from 1634-38. I explained what happened back then and noted that the bubble was...
Read more » -
Running Out of Workers?
-
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
-
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
-
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
Eurostat News Releases
-
Industrial production up by 0.9% in euro area
Download PDF
Read more » -
EU population up to over 513 million on 1 January 2019
-
House prices up by 4.0% in both the euro area and the EU
-
People on the move – statistics on mobility in Europe
-
EU28 current account surplus €40.5 bn
-
Volume of retail trade down by 0.3% in euro area
-
Business investment stable at 23.6% in the euro area
Global Macro Monitor
-
President Trump Is Not Your Father’s Conservative
Nobody cares about debt and deficits anymore. Until they will. Excuse our little diversion as we set the mood music and narrative for our analysis of the current U.S. budget situation. Sovereign Borrowers Have Found A New Revenue Source? The total stock of negative-yielding debt now tops $12.5 trillion dollars, including benchmark sovereign bonds in Germany and France. If this pace continues, some of these government borrowers — can’t even...
Read more » -
Need Inspiration After Dropping Fiddy Large To The ‘Bots?
-
Fading A China Trade Deal
-
Maybe 25 bps
-
Ross Perot And Me
-
Dollar Impact On U.S. Manufacturing Employment
-
Happy July 4th
Lance Roberts RIA
-
S&P 3300 – The Bull Vs. Bear Case 07-13-19
Review & Market Update The Case For 3300 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update We had suggested last week to our PRO SUBSCRIBERS (Get a 30-day FREE Trial) Last week, we suggested the current setup, “suggests a bit more rally could occur next week.” That remains the case this week. We may be at the limits of that rally for now, but...
Read more » -
The Problem With Keynesian Economics
-
Kahn: 6-Ways To Prepare For The Next Market Decline
-
#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 07-12-19
-
Will History Repeat Itself in the Gold Market?
-
Questions About The “Stellar” June Jobs Report (Which Also Confirm The Fed’s Concerns)
-
Investors Are Grossly Underestimating The Fed – RIA Pro UNLOCKED
Naked Capitalism
-
Climate Change Lawsuits Increase Globally
By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Climate change lawsuits have now been filed in at least twenty-eight countries, according to a new report Global trends in climate change litigation: 2019 snapshot, published last week by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. I was...
Read more » -
Links 7/14/19
-
Will Democratic Party Superdelegates Prevent a Progressive Nominee in 2020?
-
Links 7/13/19
-
Is There a Global Future for Unions?
-
A World Without Ice
-
2:00PM Water Cooler 7/12/2019
The Barrel Blog
-
Commodity tracker: 6 charts to watch this week
S&P Global Platts editors’ pick of unfolding commodities trends. This week, bunker values at Fujairah plunge, mine overcapacity puts pressure on key battery metal lithium, and US LNG exporters face tight margins over the summer. Plus Chinese refiners’ growing taste for Saudi crude, EU CO2 prices and gas and coal profitability. 1. Fujairah bunker values plunge as Middle East risk rises What’s happening? Marine fuel sales in the Port of...
Read more » -
Energy and commodity highlights: Tropical storm Barry, UK-Iran tanker spat, Asian LNG demand
-
Myanmar’s growing taste for wheat launches new journeys
-
OPEC is playing into Thunberg’s hands on climate change
-
Commodity tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
-
Energy and commodities highlights: China upstream, OPEC’s output discipline and Chevron in Kazakhstan
-
Auto sector targets EV charging infrastructure in bid to speed growth
Humble student of the markets
-
A dead cat bounce, or something more?
Mid-week market update: I wrote last week that the market gods were favoring the equity bulls, The relief rally would likely last about another week (see How far can this rally run?), but the market is likely to remain range-bound until the trade tensions are resolved. In conclusion, until these trade tensions are resolved, expect the market to remain range-bound and move in reaction to the latest headlines. This suggests that traders should...
Read more » -
How to buy “smart” Value
-
Trump vs. the Fed
-
How far can this rally run?
-
A May Jobs Report preview
-
Panic is in the air
-
China’s new Long March
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
-
S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Over 3000
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P started the week below its record high only to jump mid-week amid news of a potential interest rate cut. The index is up over 20% YTD, up 0.78% from last week and has reached a record-breaking 3,013.77
Read more » -
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
-
June Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.3 MoM
-
Underlying Inflation Gauge: June Update
-
A Long-Term Look at Inflation
-
Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components
-
What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index
Humble student of the markets
-
A dead cat bounce, or something more?
Mid-week market update: I wrote last week that the market gods were favoring the equity bulls, The relief rally would likely last about another week (see How far can this rally run?), but the market is likely to remain range-bound until the trade tensions are resolved. In conclusion, until these trade tensions are resolved, expect the market to remain range-bound and move in reaction to the latest headlines. This suggests that traders should...
Read more » -
How to buy “smart” Value
-
Trump vs. the Fed
-
How far can this rally run?
-
A May Jobs Report preview
-
Panic is in the air
-
China’s new Long March
Eurostat News Releases
-
Industrial production up by 0.9% in euro area
Download PDF
Read more » -
EU population up to over 513 million on 1 January 2019
-
House prices up by 4.0% in both the euro area and the EU
-
People on the move – statistics on mobility in Europe
-
EU28 current account surplus €40.5 bn
-
Volume of retail trade down by 0.3% in euro area
-
Business investment stable at 23.6% in the euro area
Commodity Blog
-
Symmetrical Triangle on Daily Chart of Gold as of 2019-07-14
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart of gold. Being a continuation pattern, it suggests that after a period of consolidation prices will go in the previous direction, up in this instance. It is important to remember that patterns do not predict performance with a 100% guarantee as was demonstrated when a similar pattern formed two weeks ago, but prices broke to the downside before rebounding. On the present chart,...
Read more » -
Commodities Technical Analysis, July 15th — July 19th
-
Crude Oil Gets Support from Falling Oil Rigs Count, Gulf of Mexico Production
-
Gold Posts 1% Weekly Gain on Weaker Dollar, Dovish Fed
-
Natural Gas Gains 1% Despite Bearish Supply News, Price Forecast
-
Fundamentals Continue to Support Crude Oil
-
Copper Surges on Renewed US-China Trade Talks, Capped by Weak Manufacturing
BEA
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $55.5 Billion +8.4%° Exports: $210.6 Billion +2.0%° Imports: $266.2 Billion +3.3%° Next release: August 2, 2019 (°) Statistical significance is not...
Read more » -
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2018
-
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, First Quarter 2019 (Revised Estimate)
-
U.S. Net International Investment Position, First Quarter 2019, Year 2018, and Annual Update
-
State Quarterly Personal Income, first quarter 2019
-
U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2019 and Annual Update
Lance Roberts RIA
-
S&P 3300 – The Bull Vs. Bear Case 07-13-19
Review & Market Update The Case For 3300 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update We had suggested last week to our PRO SUBSCRIBERS (Get a 30-day FREE Trial) Last week, we suggested the current setup, “suggests a bit more rally could occur next week.” That remains the case this week. We may be at the limits of that rally for now, but...
Read more » -
The Problem With Keynesian Economics
-
Kahn: 6-Ways To Prepare For The Next Market Decline
-
#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 07-12-19
-
Will History Repeat Itself in the Gold Market?
-
Questions About The “Stellar” June Jobs Report (Which Also Confirm The Fed’s Concerns)
-
Investors Are Grossly Underestimating The Fed – RIA Pro UNLOCKED
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
-
President Trump Is Not Your Father’s Conservative
Nobody cares about debt and deficits anymore. Until they will. Excuse our little diversion as we set the mood music and narrative for our analysis of the current U.S. budget situation. Sovereign Borrowers Have Found A New Revenue Source? The total stock of negative-yielding debt now tops $12.5 trillion dollars, including benchmark sovereign bonds in Germany and France. If this pace continues, some of these government borrowers — can’t even...
Read more » -
Need Inspiration After Dropping Fiddy Large To The ‘Bots?
-
Fading A China Trade Deal
-
Maybe 25 bps
-
Ross Perot And Me
-
Dollar Impact On U.S. Manufacturing Employment
-
Happy July 4th
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Embezzelcoin
In late 2017, when bitcoin was soaring toward a record-high price of $18,961 on 12/18/17, a distant relative asked me what I thought about the cryptocurrency. He had bought one bitcoin when it was around $4,000 in mid-2017. I said it reminds me of digital tulips. “What do you mean?,” he responded. He is a Millennial who had never heard of the Dutch Tulip Bubble from 1634-38. I explained what happened back then and noted that the bubble was...
Read more » -
Running Out of Workers?
-
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
-
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
-
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)