Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
-
Are Your Finances Making You Sick?
If you’re like a majority of Americans, dealing with your finances is stressing you out and wreaking havoc on your health. That’s the conclusion of a new report that asked people’s opinions about their money and their financial outlook. Of the 1000 people surveyed, about 60 percent said managing their money affected their mental health and 56 percent said it had taken a toll on their physical health. The survey also found that women were more...
Read more » -
Eurodollar University: Diagramming Repo Reserves And Negative Yields
-
China’s Superplan; Or, The Familiar (Dollar) Disorder of Bumbling Failure
-
Healthy People Need to Save More for Retirement
-
Collateral Reserves: What Is Behind Record Low and Negative Yields
-
That Can’t Be Good: China Unveils Another ‘Market Reform’
-
The Lump Sum Distribution Monster
BEA
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2019
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $55.2 Billion -0.3%° Exports: $206.3 Billion -2.1%° Imports: $261.5 Billion -1.7%° Next release: September 4, 2019 (°) Statistical significance is...
Read more » -
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2019 (advance estimate), and annual update
-
Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st quarter 2019
-
Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2018
-
Gross Domestic Product by Industry, First Quarter 2019
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019
BK Asset Management
-
Pound Slips Below 1.2100 as Johnson Promises Hard Brexit
Market Drivers August 20, 2019 BoJo reiterates commitment to hard Brexit Markets in the summer stall Nikkei 0.55% Dax 0.15% UST 10Y 1.59% Oil $56/bbl Gold $1499/oz BTCUSD $10750 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: No Data Its been a very quiet dealing session in Asian and early Europe today with virtually no eco data or fresh headlines on the tape as majors traded listlessly in very tight ranges with many players away for the final two...
Read more » -
FX: Getting a Sugar High from Talk of Stimulus?
-
Promise of Stimulus Helps Steady the Euro
-
Will EUR/USD Break 1.10?
-
The Rebound in the Pound Continues
-
USDJPY Drops as US Data Beats but Fed Still Needs to Ease
-
Data Soothes Risk , But China Aggravates It
Bull Markets
-
Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
Hi everyone, I’m excited to announce that effective immediately I will join and publish content on SentimenTrader.com. Jason and his team at SentimenTrader approach trading in a similar way as I do: thorough quantitative analysis that uses historical data to guide future trading decisions. I will be publishing my “market stats” and trading models at SentimenTrader.com. The format will be similar to what you’re used to seeing here at...
Read more » -
What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
-
Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
-
Weekly update: our models & indices right now
-
Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
-
August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
-
Is the stock market making a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
-
Comments on July Existing Home Sales
Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in JulyA few key points:1) Existing home sales were up 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in July. This was the first YoY increase since early 2018.2) Inventory is still low, and was down 1.6% year-over-year (YoY) in July.3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer (barely this month) to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
Read more » -
Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 501,000 jobs
-
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in July
-
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
-
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, BLS Preliminary Benchmark Revision and More
-
"ATA Truck Tonnage Index Surged 6.6% in July"
-
Update: The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
CEPR Blog
-
SEC Chief Accountant’s Trip(s) through the Revolving Door are Emblematic of a Broader Problem
In May, Wesley Bricker, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Chief Accountant, announced that he was stepping down. Early last month, we learned where he had landed: PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the “Big Four” auditors, as Vice Chair and Assurance Leader for the US and Mexico. With this move, Bricker has completed his fourth turn ...
Read more » -
Trump’s Contempt for Working-Class Expressed in New Expanded Public Charge Rule
-
Social Security Does Much More for Disadvantaged Children than Temporary Assistance
-
US-China Trade War Shifts Focus to Currency
-
July Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
-
Revolving Door Project Requests Info On Big Tech Regulators
-
Labor Market Policy Research Reports, June 2019
Charles Hugh Smith
-
A Wobbling Stock Market
A third period of heightened volatility shouldn't surprise us. Consider this chart of the SPX (S&P 500) over the past two years: take a look at the relative steepness of each of the red lines (rallies), the duration of each rally (purple lines), the blue boxes (volatile spots of bother) and the green line (market has gone nowhere for 19 months as every rally to new highs drops back to or below the high of January 2018). As the saying...
Read more » -
The Road to Hell Is Paved with Virtue-Signaling
-
Who Protected Epstein for Decades, and Why?
-
The Internal War in the Deep State Claims Its High Profile Casualty: Jeffrey Epstein
-
The Gulag of the Mind
-
Nothing Is Guaranteed
-
Main Street Small Business on the Precipice
Commodity Blog
-
Precious Metals Under Pressure After FOMC Minutes
Precious metals were under pressure today after the monetary policy minutes released by the Federal Open Market Committee today. The US dollar gained after the release. Consequently, dollar-priced commodities came under pressure. Prices for gold, silver, and palladium declined but platinum managed to avoid losses. The FOMC released minutes of its July policy meeting at which the range for the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points....
Read more » -
Crude Oil Mixed After EIA Report, FOMC Minutes
-
Orange Juice Rebounds As Investors Place Bets on Hurricane Season
-
Video: Crude Oil as of August 20, 2019
-
Video: Factors Affecting Precious Metals, Important Price Levels
-
Video: Gold & Silver as of August 21, 2019
-
Crude Oil Rises in Tandem with Gold & Silver
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
-
20/8/19: Public Spending in the Euro Area: Post-Crisis Austerity?
Given the never-ending repetition of the 'austerity narrative' in European economic analysis, it is virtually impossible to conclusively address the issue of changes in public spending during the crisis and the post-crisis periods and the relationship between fiscal policies and economic growth. Thew reason for this is the lack of singular set metrics that can capture these dimensions of the debate.However, this lack should not be a reason for...
Read more » -
19/8/19: Import Zamescheniye: Replacing Imports with Imports in the Age of Trade Wars
-
18/8/19: Migration Policy vs the Law of Unintended Consequences
-
16/8/19: Post-Millennials and the falling trust in institutions of coercion
-
16/8/19: U.S. Military Presence Worldwide
-
15/8/19: Winning Trade Wars: Round 3
-
12/8/19: OECD Tax Plans: Some Bad News
Curious Cat
-
Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
Read more » -
Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
-
The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
-
20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
-
An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
-
Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
-
China’s Investments in Africa
Dash of Insight
-
Stock Exchange: Are You Paying Attention To Market Conditions?
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week, we do the following: Discuss an important issue for traders,highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas,feature advice from top traders and writers, andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!...
Read more » -
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Yield Curve Inversion on the Jackson Hole Agenda?
-
Stock Exchange: The Beginning Or End Of The Sell Off?
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Get Out, Hide Out, or Ride It Out?
-
Stock Exchange: Fear Induced Trading Mistakes
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Facts Changed Your Mind?
-
Stock Exchange: What’s On Your Pre-Trade Risk Checklist?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
-
The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple.
Read more » -
Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
-
Existing-Home Sales Strengthened in July
-
Margin Debt and the Market: Up 0.98% in July
-
World Markets Update
-
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down 3 Cents
-
S&P 500 Snapshot: After a Volatile Week, Still Up 15% YTD
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Yield Curve Inverts: Head for the Hills?
The stock market tanked on Wednesday, August 14 because the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury bond and the 2-year Treasury note turned negative. Such an inversion of the yield curve is widely viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic recessions. In fact, it is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. But so is the S&P 500, which remains close to its recent high but would fall sharply if...
Read more » -
The Great Inflation Delusion
-
Embezzelcoin
-
Running Out of Workers?
-
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
-
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
Economic Populist
-
OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
Read more » -
3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
-
2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
-
Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
-
OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
-
December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
-
One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
-
The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is
DISCLOSURES This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your...
Read more » -
Frauds and Traitors
-
ET Election Index: July 31, 2019
-
When Potato Salad Goes Bad
-
I Was Shook
-
Does It Make a Sound?
-
I’m a Superstitious Man
Eurostat News Releases
-
Production in construction unchanged in euro area
").css("display","flex").css("flex","auto").append($("").css("flex","auto").css("flex-direction","column").css("display","block").css("width","1px").css("padding-right","20px").css("max-height","none").append($("").html(b.suggest!=null?b.suggest.highlightPhrase:...
Read more » -
Annual inflation down to 1.0% in the euro area
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €20.6 bn
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €20.6 bn
-
Industrial production down by 1.6% in euro area
-
GDP and employment both up by 0.2% in the euro area
-
Industrial producer prices down by 0.6% in both euro area and EU28
Federal Reserve FOMC
-
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on July 30-31, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes...
Read more » -
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
-
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30-May 1, 2019
-
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
-
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19-20, 2019
-
Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans
-
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Global Macro Monitor
-
Moving Into Resistance
We see a lot of bears wearing the above Tee these days. This post will be short and sweet as we are getting ready to board a long flight and will be radio silent until next month. As we expected last Thursday, It wouldn’t surprise us if the market begins to internalize our analysis about the yield curve and then deludes itself into thinking it can have relatively strong growth with long-term interest rates heading toward zero. A nutcracking...
Read more » -
Now For Some Good News On Trade
-
Walmart Nation: Visual Capitalist
-
Trouble Coming To Walmart Nation?
-
Fake Waves: Surf’s Up
-
“Fake Economic Data”: We Did Warn You
-
The Short-Term Heavy Treasury Curve
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
-
Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn
- by New Deal democrat Way back when I first started writing online almost 15 years ago, my very first post on Daily Kos was a little note called “Not Doomed Yet.” It was pretty pathetic compared with the standards of my writing since the Great Recession, but the point of it was, back in 2005, that the conditions necessary for an economic downturn hadn’t quite happened yet.Needless to say, it went nowhere. To the contrary, my big...
Read more » -
What would need to happen next for a producer-led recession
-
Why the revised Q2 GDP report next week may be the most important release in 10 years
-
Weekly Indicators for August 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha
-
Positive July housing permits and starts
-
Industrial production, jobless claims, and retail sales
-
Quick hits on a major Thursday economic news blitz
Humble student of the markets
-
Will stock prices surge on a Fed rate cut?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...
Read more » -
A market on a knife edge
-
Questions for Judy Shelton and gold standard supporters
-
The path to a European Renaissance
-
Stay cautious
-
The limits of central bank powers
-
Europe: An ugly duckling about to be a swan?
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
-
A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
(EDIT: It’s not sufficiently clear in the original post, but I wrote this as a sort of compendium of arguments one might use in response to claims that the federal debt is a binding constraint on new spending. I’m not saying these are the best or only reasons to reject the idea that federal government cannot borrow more. I’m saying that these are arguments that seem to have some traction in the mainstream policy world, such that you could use...
Read more » -
The Return of the Renter
-
Good News on the Economy, Bad News on Economic Policy
-
Video: Monetary Policy since the Crisis
-
Populism, or Its Opposite?
-
The Economic Case for the Green New Deal
-
Could Trump Have a Point about Rate Hikes?
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
-
The Dog Whistle Heard Around The World
On August 15, 2019 the Washington Post led with a story entitled Markets sink on recession signal. The recession signal the Post refers to is the U.S. Treasury yield curve which had just inverted for the first time in over ten years. We have been highlighting the flattening yield curve for the past six months. As we have discussed, every time the ten-year Treasury yield has fallen below the two-year Treasury yield, thus inverting the yield...
Read more » -
No Recession In Sight? But Cutting Rates To Avoid One
-
5-Things Your Broker Wont Tell You – Part 2
-
Technically Speaking: This Is Still A “Sellable Rally”
-
The “Trade War” Is Over, Trump Just Doesn’t Realize It Yet.
-
Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending 08-16-19
-
#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 08-12-19
Marc Chandler
-
European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed
Outlook: The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today. Most benchmarks fell. Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend. A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday's losses and more. It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials. US shares are also trading firmer today, and the S&P 500 is also...
Read more » -
Marking Time Ahead of PMI and Powell
-
The Hong Kong Dollar and the Goose that Laid the Golden Egg
-
China’s Rate Reform Helps Markets Extend End of Last Week Recovery
-
A Look at the Charts
-
A Vicious Cycle Grips Markets
-
Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend
Mish’s Global Economic
-
Trump Proclaims Himself the “Chosen One” to Take on China
"I am the chosen one" says president Trump. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday his life would be easier if he had not mounted a trade war with China but said “I am the chosen one” to take on Beijing. Chosen One Considers Options to Spur Economy Yesterday, the chosen one said he was Considering Options to Spur the Economy. Executive Order Bloomberg reported Trump Says He Can Order Capital Gains Tax Break Without Congress....
Read more » -
BLS Revises Payrolls 501,000 Lower Through March
-
Ireland Backstop Serious Question: Who Will Enforce It? Mexico?
-
Another Trump Trade Fiasco, This Time With Japan
-
Germany Seeks Migrant “Coalition of the Willing” Repeating Merkel’s 2015 Mistake
-
Italy’s Gov’t Collapses, Prime Minister Resigns: What’s it Mean? What’s Next?
-
Big Banks Win Again: Volcker Rule Gutted
Naked Capitalism
-
2:00PM Water Cooler 8/21/2019
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Readers, I had a schedule debacle and so this Water Cooler is at present shockingly truncated. I’ll update in a rolling fashion section by section. I hope there’s enough here to get you going. –lambert UPDATE All done. Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert,...
Read more » -
It’s Official: Parts of California Are Too Wildfire-Prone To Insure
-
Links 8/21/19
-
Crooked Conflict of Interest: CalPERS Board Member Lisa Middleton Pushed Radical Changes to Board Schedule to Solve Her Personal Schedule Conflict
-
CalPERS’ Secret Investigation of Hiring Practices Shows Glaring Deficiencies; Has the Board Been Kept in the Dark?
-
Shale Bleeds Cash Despite Best Quarter In Years
-
2:00PM Water Cooler 8/20/2019
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
-
New US oil pipelines cause shift in regional price dynamics
The second new crude pipeline in as many weeks has started moving oil from West Texas to the US Gulf Coast, adding to the pool of available light sweet in the region and squeezing the price spread between the two locations. EPIC Crude Holdings said August 19 that its 24-inch-diameter EPIC interim crude line has begun delivering crude from the Permian Basin to various terminals in Corpus Christi and Ingleside, Texas. The line has the capacity...
Read more » -
Scrap-iron ore price link weakened by trade tensions, Turkish downturn
-
Small-scale LNG projects make market inroads in US
-
Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week
-
Insight from Brussels: EU gas sector pins hopes on ‘green tags’ to face low-carbon future
-
Existing North American oil pipelines boost capacity as new projects drag on
-
Saudi oil policy adrift despite Aramco’s eye-watering earnings
The Big Picture
The Capital Spectator
-
US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 August 2019
Recession forecasts have been mounting lately, largely due to inverted yield curves. But a broad read on the hard data has yet to throw in the towel. US economic growth is slow and may get slower in the months ahead, but for the moment the odds still favor expansion for the immediate future. The current macro profile for the US is basically unchanged from last month’s update. On a positive note, all of the positive trending indicators...
Read more » -
Macro Briefing | 20 August 2019
-
Wobbly Economic Outlook Favored Bonds Last Week
-
Macro Briefing | 19 August 2019
-
Book Bits | 17 August 2019
-
The Bond Market’s All-In On Its Recession Forecast
-
Macro Briefing | 16 August 2019
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
-
US Drone Downed By Surface-To-Air Missile Over Yemen
Putting to rest any remaining doubt of America's continued deep military involvement in the Yemen war, a US military drone was shot down outside the Yemeni capital of Sanaa on Tuesday night. After local footage of fiery wreckage falling from the night sky over Yemen appeared online, US officials confirmed to Reuters on Wednesday that it was ...
Read more » -
WeWTF?!
-
WTI Slides After Crude Inventories Drawdown Less Than Hoped
-
Epstein Used Network Of Shell Companies And Associates For Sex-Trafficking Ring, Lawsuits Claim
-
Existing Home Sales Rise Year-Over-Year, Break 16-Month Losing-Streak
-
“This Is The Worse I’ve Seen It” – Recession Imminent As RV Industry Crashes
-
Why Markets Think That The Italian Government Crisis Is Not A Big Deal