Macro
Zerohedge
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Russia Claims It Captured Trump’s “Nice And New And Smart” Missiles After Syrian Strike
Two of President Trump’s “nice and new and smart” cruise missiles were recovered non-detonated by the Syrian Armed Forces on April 14, one day after the US, the UK and France fired more than 100 rockets into Syria according to the Russian TASS new agency. The U.S.-led missile strike targeted what they assumed were Syrian ...
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Trump Erupts On “Crooked H Flunkie” Maggie Haberman And “Drugged Up Loser” Sam Nunberg
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Sessions Threatens To Quit If Trump Fires Rosenstein
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Turkey Will Repatriate All Gold From The US In Attempt To Ditch The Dollar
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Trump To “Counter” DNC Lawsuit; Seeks Servers, Clinton Emails And “Pakistani Mystery Man”
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Harvard Teens Raise $1M For Crypto Fund Despite “Not Knowing A Lot”
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Crimes Of A Monster: Your Tax Dollars At Work
The Capital Spectator
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Book Bits | 21 April 2018
● Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence By Ajay Agrawal, et al.Essay by authors via Harvard Business Review There is no shortage of hot takes regarding the significant impact that artificial intelligence (AI) is going to have on business in the near future. Much less has been written about how, exactly, companies should get started with it. In our research and in our book, we begin by distilling AI down to its...
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 April 2018
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Macro Briefing: 20 April 2018
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Treasury Market’s 10-Year Inflation Forecast At 4-Year High
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Macro Briefing: 19 April 2018
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Small Cap Stocks Top Large Cap, Value Trails Growth Year To Date
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Macro Briefing: 18 April 2018
Marc Chandler
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Dollar Tone Improves
The US dollar was broadly higher last week. It seemed as if the inexorable rise in US interest rates may be beginning to give it some traction. The US 10-year yield made a marginal new four-year high, creeping closer to 3%, while the US premium over Germany surpassed 300 bp for the first time. The Dollar Index's four-day advancing streak, which it will try to extend next week, is the longest in two months. It is important to recognize,...
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Emerging Markets: What Changed
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The Greenback is Alive
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Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus
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Money for Nothing: The Importance of Stocks over Flows
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Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch
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FX Manipulation: To Take Trump Seriously Means not Literally
Mish’s Global Economic
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Graphene: Promise Unfolding or Illusion Revisited?
Remember graphene? The advanced material -- made up of a lattice of carbon atoms -- may be poised for a comeback, albeit a quiet one, Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Julia Attwood said in a presentation at the BNEF Future of Energy Summit on Tuesday. Super lightweight, highly conductive of heat and electricity and, pound for pound, stronger than steel, it was all the rage a decade ago. In 2010, the scientists who first extracted it won...
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Trump Tweet Blasts OPEC for “Artificially Very High Oil Price”
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Manufacturing Productivity Declines in 54 of 86 Industries for 2017
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Fed Study: “Tariffs Kill High-Paying American Manufacturing Jobs and Businesses”
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Belief in Inflation (And 4 or More Rate Hikes in 2018) Picks Up
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Amazon Prime Subscribers Hits 100 Million: $10 Billion in Annual Prime Revenue
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Philly Fed Prices Paid Index Jumps to 59, Up From 44
BK Asset Management
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Are Dollar Bulls Back in Control?
Are Dollar Bulls Back in Control? Daily FX Market Roundup 04.20.18 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management It was a great week to be long dollars and to gauge the durability of the dollar’s rally, it is important to understand that there was not 1 but 4 main catalysts for the U.S. dollar’s recovery this past week – 1) sharp rise & recoupling with Treasury yields 2) softer global data 3) decent retail sales /...
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As 10 Year Treasury Yields Eye 3%, Dollar is in Demand
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Another Data Hit for Pound
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Bye, Bye, Sterling?
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An Anti-Dollar Conspiracy?
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Bank of Canada Preview – What to Expect for USD/CAD
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UK Labor Data Cools Cable’s Rally
Calculated Risk
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Schedule for Week of Apr 22, 2018
The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March new and existing home sales, and Case-Shiller house prices.----- Monday, Apr 23rd -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.28 million SAAR, down from 5.54 million in February.The graph shows...
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Oil Rigs "Middling rig adds"
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Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
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Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
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BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 4 states in March; Kentucky and Maine at New Series Lows
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year, Record Q1
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
Epsilon Theory
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Volatility
Stock volatility still remains high, although it has dipped a bit in Europe and Japan. We believe this is consistent with momentum and signals that the current run up in stock prices is not an all clear signal. Market volatility is an indicator of financial stress. Low or declining volatility environments may indicate favorable periods for equity investments, whereas rising volatility periods may favor sovereign debt and developed market...
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Correlation
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Momentum
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Income Report Card
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Volatility
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Correlation
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Momentum
Charles Hugh Smith
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The War between Public Pensioners and Tax Donkeys Is Heating Up
The migration is only beginning, but that's only half the story. You know it's serious when the newspaper of record finally reports it: A $76,000 Monthly Pension: Why States and Cities Are Short on Cash (New York Times). It's a long article but the summary is brief: corrupt politicos promised the moon to public employees, and now the fiscal chickens of insolvency are coming home to roost. Public pension obligations are rising so fast that...
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Our Strange Attraction to Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices and Incentives
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What Do We Know About Syria? Next to Nothing
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Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading
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The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing
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Were Trade Wars Inevitable?
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Why Systems Fail
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Weekly Indicators for April 16 – 20 at XE.com
- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.The regional Fed indexes, which presaged real strength in the industrial sector over the last year, are faltering (while still positive).Meanwhile housing, as exmplified by purchase mortgage applications, refuses to be held down.
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Do interest rates still matter for the housing market?
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Higher wage growth for job switchers: more evidence of a “taboo”against rasing wages?
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Is the US economy booming? April 2018 update
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Notes on housing permits and industrial production for March 2018
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Real retail sales very positive. What to watch for next
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A thought for Sunday: The Abyss always looks back, Presidential polling edition
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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“The financialization of the nonfinancial corporation”
One common narrative attached to the murky term financialization is that nonfinancial corporations have, in effect, turned themselves into banks or hedge funds — they have replaced investment in means of production with ownership of financial assets. Financial profits, in this story, have increasingly substituted for profits from making and selling stuff. I’m not sure where this idea originates — the epidemiology points toward my own homeland...
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Corporate cashflows, 1960-2016
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The Class Struggle on Wall Street: A Footnote
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V for Varoufakis
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Posts in Three Lines
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2017 Books
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What It’s About
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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19/4/18: Geopolitical Risk: Who Cares?..
Geo-political risks, geo-shmalitical risks... who cares... not the markets... None of the geopolitical risks registered on S&P 500 companies reporting radar according to Factset in 1Q 2018 https://insight.factset.com/more-than-half-of-sp-500-companies-citing-positive-impact-from-fx-on-q1-earnings-calls. This is not very surprising as majority of earnings for 1Q accumulated before any spikes in these, and as "Tariffs" category...
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15/4/18: US Trade Wars and the Global Economy
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15/4/18: EuromoneyCountryRisk 1Q 2018 report
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11/4/18: Social Mobility in the U.S.: Another Chunk of the Facade Goes Down
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11/4/18: Sand Castles of Local Government Regulations in U.S. Property Markets
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9/4/18: Some evidence on Chinese tech & IP practices
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8/4/18: U.S. economy: entrepreneurship is not ‘the new thing’ outside Academia
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Renewed ‘Reflation’ From A Short-term Dollar Perspective
It’s worth revisiting the topic of the “rising dollar.” What determines its exchange value in the first place? Orthodox convention associates the general direction up or down with interest rate differentials, the infamous global carry trade. Not just any interest rate comps, either, but those of short-term money markets. Thus, if the Federal Reserve is “raising rates” as it has been while other central banks hold their rates steady or increase...
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Transitory’s Japanese Cousin
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Very Interesting, These ‘Its’
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Hawkish
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review
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Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way
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Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: How Do You Filter Out Noisy Trade Signals?
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following: Discuss an important issue for traders; highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas; feature advice from top traders and writers; and, provide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts. We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Strong Earnings Growth Already Reflected in Stock Prices?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Strong Earnings Growth Already Reflected in Stock Prices?
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Stock Exchange: How Do You Allocate Your Trade Risk Budget?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Has the Trump Trade Reached the Tipping Point?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Has the Trump Trade Reached the Tipping Point?
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Stock Exchange: Are You A Contrarian Trend Follower?
Curious Cat
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which reported that total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.5%) to $13.15 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017. This report marks the fifth consecutive year of positive annual household debt growth. There were increases in mortgage, student, auto, and credit card debt (increasing by 1.6%, 1.5%, 0.7%...
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“Explaining” Random Variation
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2017
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Nov 2017
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Improvements to the USA Tax Policy
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Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 2000 to 2016
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Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 2000 to 2016
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Pro-Corporate Trade Pacts Let Mark Zuckerberg Hide His Face
This might not be the best time to be alive if you worry about things like racism or climate change, but 2018 is undeniably a great time to run a multinational corporation. Ironically, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg helps illustrate why life is great for CEO’s of multinationals, even as the corporate behemoth he founded is experiencing ...
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Quit Rates Jump to 17 Year High in March
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Does High CEO Pay Matter to Shareholders?
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Scott Walker, Foxconn, and the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation
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CPI Excluding Food, Energy and Shelter Up Just 0.9 Percent Over Last Year
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Prime-Age Employment Rate Surges in February
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Trump’s Plan Won’t Solve the Problems of America’s Crumbling Infrastructure
Economic Populist
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
Since the media largely missed what the data from OPEC's February Oil Market Report (covering January OPEC & global oil data) actually showed, and since Saudi jawboning about oil supply and demand in advance of the Aramco IPO has been keyed to keeping oil prices higher, we'll take a quick look at that report, which is available as a free download. The first table from this report that we'll look at is from page 69 of that OPEC pdf, and it...
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
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OPEC oil output at a 6 month low; global oil output at a 12 month high
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October Trade Deficit Up 8.6%, Revisions Whack 3rd Quarter GDP
Naked Capitalism
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Links 4/21/18
A Metaphor for the Planet Baffler. Important. Kangaroo Dies After Visitors At Chinese Zoo Hurl Rocks To Force Her To Jump Huffington Post ‘Sea Nomads’ Are First Known Humans Genetically Adapted to Diving National Geographic Government Accidentally Releases Documents on “Psycho-Electric” Weapons Popular Mechanics. This should not be news. Not long after the USSR fell, one of its prominent scientists wrote a book about the government’s...
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Can Nudging Become A New Road To Serfdom?
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CalPERS to Investigate CFO Charles Asubonten, But Will It Look into Misrepresentations on His Employment Application?
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2:00PM Water Cooler 4/20/2018
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Why the Problem Is Economics, Not Economists
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Links 4/20/18
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EU (Finally) Slaps Down UK on Fantasy Irish Border Solutions
Lance Roberts RIA
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Rally Hits The Wall – 04-20-18
Review & Update Is The Bear Market Over? Interest Rates At A Critical Juncture Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha This week is a review of where we have been and a look forward as to what may happen next. First, let’s rewind the tape to the beginning of March. “Most importantly, the market is currently in the process of building a consolidation pattern as...
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Here’s What To Watch In Crude Oil Right Now
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Weekend Reading: The Return Of Stagflation
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Model, Model on the Wall; Which is the Fairest of Them All?
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The Fed Has Forgotten The Lessons Of 2008
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The Risk To Markets – Global Growth
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Kass: Market Is Underpricing Risk…Again
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 0.5% WoW
The S&P 500 rose and fell this week, ending Friday up 0.5% from the same time last week. The index was down -0.85% from Thursday and is down 0.95% YTD.The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.96%. Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Today's selling puts the volume at its 50-day moving average.Here's a snapshot of the index going back to December 2008.A Perspective on DrawdownsHere's a snapshot of record highs...
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in March
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Slightly Worse Than Forecast
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Slight Improvement in April
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 0.5% YTD
The Barrel Blog
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The dry bulk freight market: Just treading water?
A decade has passed since the 2008 dry bulk freight rates began a long downturn which coincided with the Financial Crisis and culminated with a historic low in January 2016. And while many are encouraged by the rebound since then, a cursory look at the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) indicates how serious the collapse was and how modest and fragile the recovery is. Not only has the dry bulk market not returned to pre-collapse levels, it’s...
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China’s door-slam on thermal coal imports a golden opportunity for India
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Japan’s brewers eye raising a can to new markets
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Is peace in the (gas) pipeline for Pyongyang?
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Basrah Light imports rebound on rising refinery run rates: In the LOOP
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As oil flows in the US, so does borrowing power: Fuel for Thought
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Overwhelming market interest for blockchain-powered oil trading platform VAKT: Gunvor
Eurostat News Releases
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Employment rate of people aged 20 to 64 in the EU reached a new peak at 72.2% in 2017
Download PDF
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EU Member States granted protection to more than half a million asylum seekers in 2017
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Annual inflation up to 1.3% in the euro area
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Production in construction down by 0.5% in euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €25.4 bn
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Industrial production down by 0.8% in euro area
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House prices up by 4.2% in the euro area
Commodity Blog
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Oil Recovers Following Trump’s Criticism of Opec
Oil prices have endured a turbulent day, coming out slightly on top towards the end of trading. The commodity started the day well, making early gains, but they weren’t to last. Trump took aim at Saudi Arabia, after news emerged on Thursday that they want to see oil prices reach $80 or even $100 per barrel, making it highly likely that OPEC would agree to continue withholding supply of oil. OPEC members have been withholding supply since 2017....
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Gold Poised for Weekly Loss on Rising US Dollar, Treasury Yields
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Natural Gas Futures Slide as Domestic Supplies Drop
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Saudi Prices Targets Cause Oil Prices to Rise
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Sanction Fears Lead Nickel Price to Rocket
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Orange Juice Futures Plunge as Scientists Warn About Citrus Greening
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Crude Oil Extends Rally as API Reports About Decline of US Inventories
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter 2017 and annual 2017 (advance estimate)
Durable goods manufacturing; construction; and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2017. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.9 percent increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. For the durable goods...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2018
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U.S. International Investment Position, 4th quarter and year 2017
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Personal Income and Outlays, February 2018
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Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2017
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State Quarterly Personal Income, 4th quarter 2017; State Annual Personal Income, 2017 (preliminary)
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U.S. International Transactions, 4th quarter and Year 2017
Humble student of the markets
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The post-FANG market beaters hiding in plain sight
Mid-week market update: It is encouraging that the stock market held up well in the face of bad news on global trade. Global markets adopted a risk-off tone on the news of Chinese trade retaliation, but the SPX managed to hold a key support level and rally through a downtrend line. Looking over the past few weeks, equity market weakness really started rolling when technology stocks rolled over in March. The carnage was not just confined...
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What’s the real test? The 200 dma or you?
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Is this what a regime change looks like?
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Technicians nervous, fundamentalists shrug
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The things you don’t see at market bottoms: China edition
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Trade war, Schmade war!
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Is the NASDAQ trend still your friend?
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Why You Should Consider Bali Real Estate & Booming Tourism
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again everyone and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. This is episode number 14. Well, it’s been a little while since we recorded our last podcast and the reason for that is we were going to record but then Tiho got a cold and was having trouble speaking. He had to rest his voice, then I got a cold immediately after that, and Tiho has been traveling like crazy in recent weeks,...
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What’s Next for Global Equities & REITs
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Things You Need to Know About Singapore Before Investing
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How To Handle This Weeks Mini Stock Market Crash
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Here Is What You Can Expect From Bonds In 2018
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Who Made Money Last Year — Analyzing 2017
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What Is Making And Losing Money In The Current Market Rally?
Global Macro Monitor
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Alan Greenspan on Debt, Deficit, Tax Cuts – Bloomberg
Excellent interview. Upshot? Inflation cometh. Apr.18 — Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan joined Bloomberg Television for a wide-ranging discussion about U.S. debt, the current rate hike path, Europe’s new direction and his reading assignment for the Republicans. Dr. Greenspan joined Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Markets.” – Bloomberg TV [embedded content] Advertisements
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Vampire Squid Plagiarism & The 1962 Bear Market
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JFK-Trump S&P500 Analog – It’s Showtime!
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iPhone Demand Sparks New Worries For Apple | CNBC
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China’s Opaque Financial System And The U.S. S&L Crisis
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Size of Global Economies – Nominal $ GDP (US$ billion)
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World’s Fastest Growing Economies In 2018 – 2.0
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Weekly S&P 500 Earnings & Valuation Report
S&P 500 consensus expected operating earnings for both 2018 and 2019 flattened out over the past few weeks after rising sharply in January and February during the Q4-2017 earnings season thanks to the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) enacted on December 22. They will probably resume their climb as companies start to report the initial positive impact of the TCJA during the current earnings season for Q1-2018. Forward earnings, i.e., the...
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Fed Still on Gradual Normalization Course
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Real GDP Growth: Hard To Get Back to Old Normal
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Excerpt from Ed Yardeni’s New Book
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Global Growth Fundamentals Remain Strong
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Bullish Earnings Ahead
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Animal Spirits Remain Spirited