Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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A Time Recession
Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means anything in this day and age. I don’t think it does, and...
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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized
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All Signs Of More Slack
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Fails Swarms Are Just One Part
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Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend
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The Risen (euro)Dollar
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The ISM Isn’t An Isolated Case
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2019
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.2 billion in October, down $3.9 billion from $51.1 billion in September, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $47.2 Billion -7.6%° Exports: $207.1 Billion -0.2%° Imports: $254.3 Billion -1.7%° Next release: January 7, 2020 (°) Statistical...
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Personal Income and Outlays, October 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2019 (second estimate), Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)
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Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2017
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Local Area Personal Income, 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 2nd quarter 2019 and annual update
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Gross Domestic Product for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), 2018
BK Asset Management
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USD: Why You Shouldn’t Bank on Strong Non-Farm Payrolls
USD: Don’t Bank on Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Daily FX Market Roundup 12.05.19 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management US non-farm payrolls is traditionally one of the most market moving pieces of data for currencies and equities but its impact depends on how the jobs report affects monetary policy. In the case of the Federal Reserve, they’ve made it clear that after lowering interest rates three times this year,...
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Cable Continues Climbing
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Can Weaker US Data Make Trade Deal More Likely?
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Will Bank of Canada Trigger Breakout in USDCAD?
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Trump – No Deadline on Trade Deal; Risk Dumps
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AUD Breaks Out, Can Gains be Sustained on RBA?
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Risk Explodes Higher as Week Begins
Bull Markets
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
Hi everyone, I’m excited to announce that effective immediately I will join and publish content on SentimenTrader.com. Jason and his team at SentimenTrader approach trading in a similar way as I do: thorough quantitative analysis that uses historical data to guide future trading decisions. I will be publishing my “market stats” and trading models at SentimenTrader.com. The format will be similar to what you’re used to seeing here at...
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
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August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
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Is the stock market making a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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Friday: Employment Report
My November Employment Preview.Goldman's November Payrolls preview.Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November. The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.
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Goldman: November Payrolls Preview
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November Employment Preview
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Trade Deficit decreased to $47.2 Billion in October
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 203,000
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Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
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Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in October, Up 4.3% year-over-year
CEPR Blog
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Modern Family Progressivism
In a recent New York Times’ column, Thomas Edsall defends progressives against Attorney General William Barr and other social conservatives who charge them with wanton destruction of the family. Edsall is right to call out Barr and others for “marketing apocalyptic hogwash” to get Trump reelected, but his argument concedes too much to social conservatives. ...
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November Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
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Committee on Ways and Means Must Investigate Opportunity Zones
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Coalition Requests Moderators Ask About Executive Branch
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Dems Must Confront GOP Attacks On Independent Agencies
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Freshman Democrats Seek to Make Corporate Oversight Routine Again
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Inflation Inequality and the Poverty Measure
Charles Hugh Smith
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Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control
And how do we pay for these spiraling out of control costs? By borrowing more, of course. If we had to choose one "big picture" reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would be: the costs of essentials are spiraling out of control. I've often covered the dynamics of stagnating income for the bottom 90%, and real-world inflation, i.e. a decline in purchasing power. But neither of these dynamics fully...
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Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B
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Could America Survive a Truth Commission?
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A China Trade Deal Just Finalizes the Divorce
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Thanksgiving 2019: A Few Things I’m Grateful For
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We Can Only Choose One: Our National Economy or Globalization
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Darn, This Is Inconvenient: Apple Is Destroying the Planet to Maximize Profits
Commodity Blog
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Natural Gas Rises As Prices Look to Spark Rally Ahead of Cold Weather Spell
Natural gas futures are rising on Thursday after the US government reported the third consecutive weekly decline in inventories. Despite its double-digit decline over the last month, natural gas could spark a year-end rally as a cold-weather spell is expected to ignite demand across the US. January natural gas futures rose $0.047, or 1.96%, to $2.445 per million British thermal units (btu) at 15:19 GMT on Thursday on the New York Mercantile...
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Coffee Settles Higher on Consumption Will Exceed Output Forecast
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Bitcoin Price Briefly Rockets to $7,750 After Slip to $7,000
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Soybeans Flat on Weak Demand, Ample Global Supplies
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Gold Settles Lower on Upbeat US Manufacturing, Capped by Trade Woes
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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Palladium Silver, Crude Oil for December 2– 6, 2019
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Commodities Technical Analysis, December 2nd — December 6th
South China Morning Post
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China 2020 GDP growth target seen to be set at ‘around 6 per cent’ at top economic policy meeting
[unable to retrieve full-text content]In a tense atmosphere created by slowing Chinese growth, rising inflation and continued uncertainty whether trade tariffs will be rolled back as part of a deal with the United States, hundreds of senior Beijing officials, economic policymakers, provincial governors and heads of state-owned banks will convene for a major annual economic policymaking meeting later this month.The meeting will decide the...
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‘Trade war fatigue’ weighing on US-China business ties, but few expect December tariff hike to take place
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A dozen oil tankers have been idling off China’s coast for more than a month, holding the fate of global freight rates in their hands
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US dollar transfers cut back by Chinese bank as Beijing steps up scrutiny of capital outflows
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Trade war: China, US moving closer to deal despite Hong Kong and Xinjiang tensions, reports Bloomberg
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China’s ‘mutant pigs’ could halt pork crisis as DNA researchers fight to tackle African swine fever outbreak
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China capital investment growth hits three-year low as weak economy, US trade war drag, analysis shows
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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16/10/19: Recalling the Celtic Tiger
Recalling the Celtic Tiger, edited by Brian Lucey, Eamon Maher and Eugene O’Brien is coming out this week from the series of Reimagining Ireland Volume 93, published by Peter Lang, DOI 10.3726/b16190, ISBN 978-1-78997-286-3.The book includes 12 mini-chapters by myself and multitude of contributions from some top-level contributors. Wroth buying and reading... and can be ordered here: https://www.peterlang.com/view/title/71254.
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16/10/19: Euromoney Risk Survey Q3 2019 Results
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16/10/19: Ireland and the Global Trade Wars
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16/10/2019:Corporate Bond Markets are Primed for a Blowout
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7/10/19: Bitcoin, ethereum and ripple: a fractal and wavelet analysis
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29/9/19: Divided ECB
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28/9/19: Evidence of Systemic Risk from Major Cybersecurity Breaches
Curious Cat
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
This post is an exploration of a specific stock Tucows (TCX). Tucows, based in Canada, has built from their domain registration business into a company with 3 businesses poised for predictable cash flow generation. In 2012 Tucows added Ting Mobile, a business that resells access to cell phone networks (Sprint, for CDMA, and T-mobile for GSM phones). This is not a flashy business but is a reliable cash flow generator. In 2015 they added...
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: In Investing and Trading Asking “Why?” Can be a Mistake
Jeff: Taking the lead for the Stock Exchange report is my colleague Todd E. Hurlbut, CMT, Chief Investment Officer at Incline Investment Advisors, LLC. Todd is the creator of the Emerald Bay model featured in this column. He is known as “Trending Todd.” And yes, that is a hint about his trading style. Summary Humans have an insatiable desire to know why. Whether curious children (like my 5 and 8-year-old using the “Why” word 50 times a day)...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Black Friday
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Stock Exchange: Good Trade yet you lost money?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Time to Worry about Debt?
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Stock Exchange: Is Sentiment a Factor in Your Trading?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time for Investors to Act
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Stock Exchange: It’s difficult to argue with a market at new highs
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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A Closer Look at Today’s ADP Employment Report
[unable to retrieve full-text content] In this morning's ADP employment report we got the November estimate of 67K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over October's revised 121K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
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Weekly Heating Oil Prices
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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower Growth in November
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Markit Services PMI: “Business activity growth strengthens in November”
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First Look at November: ADP Says 67K New Nonfarm Private Jobs
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The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Thanksgiving: The Bull Is No Turkey
Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday. It’s great getting together with family and friends. We always take turns—going around the dinner table—sharing what we are most thankful for. The comments tend to focus on health and supportive family members. According to the weather forecasters, most of us won’t be thankful for the weather on Thursday when we gather for Thanksgiving. It’s going to be stormy around the country. Depending on the winds, the...
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Are Stocks Overvalued?
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Zombies in the Fed’s Soup
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Lifestyle of the Rich & Famous President
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Another Upside Hook for S&P 500 Earnings?
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The Myth of Income Stagnation, Again
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No Recession In Purchasing Managers Report
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Presented Without Comment
Former Purdue CEO Mark Timney (L) and former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick (R)Every day we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours of financial media to generate a list of the most linguistically-connected and narrative-central individual stories. We call this The Zeitgeist and we use it for inspiration or insight into short-form notes that we publish a couple of times a week to the website. To receive a free full-text email of The...
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Hyakujos Fox
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Our Dumb World
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The Sillier Season
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A Cycle of Addiction
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The Rent Is Too Damn Low
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By Our Own Petard
Eurostat News Releases
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Volume of retail trade down by 0.6% in euro area
Download PDF
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GDP up by 0.2% and employment up by 0.1% in the euro area
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Industrial producer prices up by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28
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Euro area annual inflation up to 1.0%
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Euro area unemployment at 7.5%
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Share of EU GDP spent on social protection slightly down
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Production in construction up by 0.7% in euro area
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on October 29-30, 2019 and of the conference call held on October 4, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board’s Annual Report. The descriptions of economic...
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30-May 1, 2019
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Global Macro Monitor
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COTD: Apple’s Global Supply Chain
COTD: Chart of the Day Maybe a bit dated but you get the picture, no surprise, China dominates the supply chain, which also includes fabs. Apple is very exposed to a protracted or forever trade war and deterioration of the global trading system, which of course makes the stock market much more vulnerable to the spectre of anti-globalization haunting the world. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
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Getting Narrow Up Here
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If Facts Mattered…….
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American Democracy In A Bear Market
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Manufacturing Sector Contraction Continues, Led By New Orders – ISM
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S&P’s Great Run…What Next?
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Ten Facts About Inequality In Advanced Economies (AE) — PIIE
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Initial jobless claims still a positive; what I’ll be watching for tomorrow
- by New Deal democratAs I’ve said a number of times over the past few months, the lack of an increase in initial jobless claims is the best argument against any oncoming recession. If businesses aren’t laying employees off, those same people are consumers who are going to continue to spend, which is 70% of the total economy. This morning’s initial jobless claims report continues the streak. At 203,000, it is the lowest since April....
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November vehicle sales: the consumer is alright, producers not contracting
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Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession)
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December starts out with a thud
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Weekly Indicators for November 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha
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A few thoughts while you are digesting Thanksgiving dinner
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Housing rebound continues; price appreciation stabilizes
Humble student of the markets
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Market nearing the stall zone
Mid-week market update: Don’t get me wrong, I am still bullish. The Wilshire 5000 flashed an important MACD buy signal on the monthly chart at the end of October. While MACD sell signals have been hit-and-miss, buy signals have historically resolved themselves in strong gains with minimal drawdowns. The MSCI World xUS Index also flashed an interim monthly buy signal, assuming that it stays at these levels by the end of November. ...
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Buy the breakout, recession risk limited
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Any more precautionary cuts?
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Scary Halloween story: How a weak USD could hand China a major victory
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The Art of the Deal, Phase One edition
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An upcoming seismic shift in factor returns
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SPX 3000 round number-itis
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Considerations on Rent Control
(On November 13, I was invited to testify before the Jersey City city council on rent control. Below is an edited version of my testimony.) My name is J. W. Mason. I have a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, I am an assistant professor of economics at John Jay College of the City University of New York, and I am a Fellow at the Rosevelt Institute. My goal today is to present some general observations on rent...
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Presentation on Public Spending and Debt
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CBO Interest Rate Forecasts, 2011-2019
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The CBO Just Handed Us Two Trillion Dollars
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In The American Prospect: The Collapse of Austerity Economics
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“Can We Afford a Green New Deal?”
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A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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Dimon’s View Of Economic Reality Is Still Delusional
“This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen and it’s going to be a very prosperous economy for the next 100 years.” – Jamie Dimon That’s what the head of JP Morgan Chase told viewers in a recent “60-Minutes” interview. “The consumer, which is 70% of the U.S. economy, is quite strong. Confidence is very high. Their balance sheets are in great shape. And you see that the strength of the American consumer is driving the American...
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Beware Of Those Selling “Technology”
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Never Forget These 10 Investment Rules.
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Fundamentally Speaking: Earning Season’s Good, Bad & Ugly
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The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 12-1-19
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Michael Markowski: Market Ripens For Correction…Or Crash
Marc Chandler
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Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election
Overview: Global equity markets have resumed their climb after a wobble at the end of last week and earlier this week. A strong recovery in the S&P 500 on Tuesday signaled yesterday's strong advance that left a bullish one-day island low in its wake. MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline today with nearly all the market with the notable exception of South Korea advanced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 jumped 1.2% yesterday, its...
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Hope Springs Eternal
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US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits
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November Monthly
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PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets
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The Dollar Continues to Flirt with Key Chart Points
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Challenges and Opportunities in the Week Ahead
Mish’s Global Economic
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France Grinds to a Halt in Massive Strike
Hundreds of thousands of lawyers, teachers, students and air-traffic controllers protest pension Macron's pension reform Cities Paralyzed French president Emmanuel macron is back in the hot seat over reform proposals. Over 800,000 protesters have taken to the streets in a Massive Strike that has paralyzed cities. Cities across France were paralyzed by a massive public transport strike against a planned overhaul of France’s pensions system, in...
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How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson
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Democrats Will Draw Up Articles of Impeachment Against “King” Trump
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Hiring Trends in Recessions by Size of Firms
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Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get
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Trump Throws Tantrum, Blasts “Two-Faced” Canada, Leaves Nato Summit
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ISM NMI – Production Growth Slows, Orders Pick Up
Naked Capitalism
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‘Dark Waters’ Tells the Origin Story of a Public Health Nightmare. We’re Still Living It.
Yves here. Yet another story of how a major health risk came to light…and unlike yesterday’s account of the FDA hiding information about defective medical devices, this one came out sooner rather than later. By Emily Pontecorvo. Originally published at Grist About a third of the way into the film Dark Waters, Rob Bilott, played by Mark Ruffalo, is lying in bed with his eyes open, looking anxious. The lawyer has spent the past year poring over...
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Links 12/5/19
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Questioning Innovation
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Tucker Carlson Tears into Vulture Capitalist Paul Singer for Strip Mining American Towns
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The Debt Delusion
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2:00PM Water Cooler 12/4/2019
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CalPERS Still Owns Toxic National Enquirer Via Hedge Fund Chatham; CEO Marcie Frost Falsely Says It Was Sold; Columbia Journalism Review Depicts Pending Sale as a Sham
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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LNG displaces Atlantic basin pipe gas, but meets resistance in Asia
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes have displaced pipeline natural gas volumes in the Atlantic Basin throughout 2019, due to historically low spot prices of the shipped fuel. Higher LNG spot market activity has helped unleash some of the commodity’s inherent flexibility. It is inherent because a spot cargo that can move to any importing nation is more flexible than a pipeline whose destinations are fixed. Cargo pricing can therefore...
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Tariffs and tribulations: recasting US metals industries
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US utilities race to slash emissions as ESG reporting takes off
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Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this week
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An evolving Russian gas industry deserves new clichés
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Five global trends for the ferrous and steel sectors
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Insight from Brussels: Taxing times for diesel in Europe
The Big Picture
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Median US Homebuyers Age in 1981 was 31. Today it is 47.
From Torsten Sløk: The rise since the financial crisis is particularly noteworthy. This is driven by an aging population, affordability, higher student debt levels, and tighter mortgage lending standards for young people and individuals with lower credit scores. All these forces have also contributed to lower levels of residential mobility, see also our chart from last week. Source: Torsten Sløk, Ph.D., Deutsche Bank Securities
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Wanted: Radio & Podcast Producer / Booker
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10 Thursday AM Reads
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BBRG: Worthless Holiday Retail Sales Hype Never Dies
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Reforming Rigged Capitalism
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10 Wednesday AM Reads
The Capital Spectator
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Is US Employment Data Flirting With An Economic Warning Sign?
Depending on the employment indicator, the US economic outlook is upbeat or worrisome. Focusing on yesterday’s ADP Employment Report for November leans toward the latter. US companies added a thin 67,000 jobs last month, according to ADP’s estimate, the weakest gain since May. Monthly data is noisy and so it’s best to use the one-year change for a more reliable measure of the trend. But there’s a worrying slide afoot here as well: job...
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Macro Briefing | 5 December 2019
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Quality Is The Lone Equity Factor Beating The Market This Year
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Macro Briefing | 4 December 2019
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 December 2019
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Macro Briefing | 3 December 2019
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Major Asset Classes | November 2019 | Performance Review
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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Trump-Bezos Round 2: Amazon Faces Broad Antitrust Probe Of Cloud Business
Trump-Bezos Round 2: Amazon Faces Broad Antitrust Probe Of Cloud Business Having lodged a formal complaint (cough, bad loser, cough) after losing the hotly contested contract to provide cloud computing services to the Pentagon, it appears the richest man in the world is about to face round 2 against the most powerful man in the ...
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Cartel Violence Explodes – Has Mexico Finally Lost All Control?
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“Is Something Going Wrong? Is Something Broken?” Quants Running “Scared” As Nothing Makes Sense
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“…The Road-Map Ahead Is A Market Crash, Followed By Obscene Fiscal Stimulus…”
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For First Time Since 2012, A China IPO Flopped…
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How Dumb Have We Become? Chinese Students Are 4 Grade Levels Ahead Of US Students In Math
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Elon Musk Tells Jury Despite Being Worth $20 Billion, He’s “Short On Cash”