Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Much More Than This Week (TRDKWTAD)
According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle adjustment” hits two. And that is it, at least if you believe the current calculations spit out by the Fed’s models. It goes along with Powell’s blunt statement he made at the press conference on Wednesday broadcasting the second cut. The cut had already been superseded,...
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What’s The Verdict On This Week?
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Nice Work
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FOMC: Trust Us, Funding Pressures Don’t Really Matter
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Losing Control of Federal Funds: What’s Transmission Got To Do With It?
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Focus Is On The Pre-recession Condition
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An Overlooked And Important Point: The Fed’s Overnight Repo Operation Had Less To Do With Repo Than You Are Led To Believe
BEA
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Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. and Prototype for States, 2017
State Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account (ORSA) statistics isolate the economic activity associated with outdoor recreation spending and production in a state's economy. The state-level prototype statistics are an extension of the national industry ORSA statistics. The concepts, definitions, and methodology used to produce state-level prototype statistics are consistent with the national industry concepts, definitions, and methodology. The...
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U.S. International Transactions, 2nd quarter 2019
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2019
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Personal Income and Outlays, July 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product for American Samoa, 2018
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Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2017
BK Asset Management
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Dollar Wobbles in End of Week Trade
Market Drivers September 20, 2019 USDJPY under 108.00 on BOJ Hold Cable at multi-month highs Nikkei 0.16% Dax -0.18% UST 10Y 1.77% Oil $58/bbl Gold $1504/oz BTCUSD $10100 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: CAD Retail Sales 8:30 A quiet end of week session in FX today with no major events on the calendar and little fresh news on the political front. Cable hit fresh multi-month highs on continued optimism regarding Brexit negotiations but...
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Deal or No Deal? For Cable 1.2500 Will Tell the Story
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Dollar Rallies on Hawkish Fed Cut, 3 More Rate Decisions Ahead
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What Will the Fed Do?
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Why is the Dollar So Strong Ahead of a Rate Cut?
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Dollar Gets Stronger
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Why Investors are Nervous Ahead of FOMC
Bull Markets
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
Hi everyone, I’m excited to announce that effective immediately I will join and publish content on SentimenTrader.com. Jason and his team at SentimenTrader approach trading in a similar way as I do: thorough quantitative analysis that uses historical data to guide future trading decisions. I will be publishing my “market stats” and trading models at SentimenTrader.com. The format will be similar to what you’re used to seeing here at...
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
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August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
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Is the stock market making a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019
The key reports this week are August New Home sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP.Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.----- Monday, Sept 23rd -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.----- Tuesday, Sept...
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Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q2
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Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q2
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
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BLS: August Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Maine and New Jersey
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CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q2 2019
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Friday: Q2 Flow of Funds
CEPR Blog
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Revolving Door Project Probes Thiel’s White House Connection
Washington is awash with proposals for a new regulatory agency centered on Silicon Valley. Often lost in that important conversation is the fact that the executive branch already has some positions with a direct focus on the technology sector, though they are limited in scope and scattered across the alphabet-soup of agencies. Perhaps no tech-focused ...
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Google’s Settlement With The FTC Shows A Culture Of Corruption Thriving
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The Official Poverty Measure Has Defined Deprivation Down
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Facebook Dodges Regulation With Wall Street’s Tactics — Confuse And Blame The Public
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August Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
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SEC Chief Accountant’s Trip(s) through the Revolving Door are Emblematic of a Broader Problem
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Trump’s Contempt for Working-Class Expressed in New Expanded Public Charge Rule
Charles Hugh Smith
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Automation and the Crisis of Work
Technology, like natural selection, has no goal. When it comes to the impact of automation (robots, AI, etc.) on jobs, there are two schools of thought: one holds that technology has always created more and better jobs than it destroys, and this will continue to be the case. The other holds that the current wave of automation will destroy far more jobs than it creates, but the solution is to tax the robots and use these revenues to distribute...
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The New Orthodoxy: Blasphemy, Heresy and the New Inquisition
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Markets That Live by the Fed, Die by the Fed
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The Black Swan Is a Drone
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What a Relief that the U.S. and Global Economies Are Booming
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The Inevitable Bursting of Our Bubble Economy
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How Deep Is the Rot in America’s Institutions?
Commodity Blog
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Gold Poised for Weekly Gain on Fed Easing, Middle East Tensions
Gold futures are on track for a modest weekly gain, buoyed by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and signaling that it would spring into action in the event of a downturn. The de-escalation in the US-China trade dispute ostensibly placed a cap on the yellow metal’s ascent, which was potentially offset by renewed tensions in the Middle East. December gold futures rose $1.10, or 0.07%, to $1,507.30 per ounce at 12:00 GMT on Friday...
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Natural Gas Crashes on Larger-Than-Expected Build in Supplies
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US Crude Falls on Weekly Supply Build, Iran Sanctions
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Video: Crude Oil as of September 18, 2019
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Video: Gold as of September 17, 2019
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Copper Falls on Disappointing Chinese Data, Trade Uncertainty
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Precious Metals Retreat Ahead of FOMC
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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20/9/19: New paper: Systematic risk contagion from cyber events
Our new paper, "What the hack: Systematic risk contagion from cyber events" is now available at International Review of Financial Analysis in pre-print version here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521919300274.Highlights include:We examine the impact of cybercrime and hacking events on equity market volatility across publicly traded corporations. The volatility generated due to cybercrime events is shown to be...
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20/9/19: New paper on Cryptos pricing
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9/9/19: Ireland and OECD: Income Tax Rates Comparatives
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6/9/19: Small Cap Stocks EPS: racing to the bottom of the MAGA barrel
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2/9/19: Trump’s Tariffs of War…
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2/9/19: One view of Austerity
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1/9/19: U.S. Non-Financial Corporate Sector: Stagnation in Net Value Added
Curious Cat
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Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: How Tight Is Your Risk Budget? (Veeva Edition)
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week, we do the following: Discuss an important issue for traders,highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas,feature advise from top traders and writers, andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Falling Confidence a Threat to Markets?
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Stock Exchange: Still Letting Your Winners Run? (Zoetis Edition)
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry about Crowded Trades?
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Stock Exchange: Is Volatility Your Friend Or Foe?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Presidential Politics Change the Course of Economic Policy?
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Stock Exchange: Are You Growing Your Trading Knowledge Base?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Up 19.3% YTD
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P recovered some losses this week while the Fed announced another rate cut. The index is down 49 bps from Thursday and is up 19.36% YTD.
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: August 2019 Update
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index Unchanged in August
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Existing-Home Sales Up 1.3% in August
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Expansion in September
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 2K, Better Than Forecast
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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US Bond Yields Made in Germany
Another round of central bank easing is underway. So why are bond yields rising? The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose from a recent low of 1.47% on 9/4 to 1.72% on Tuesday (Fig. 1). The record low was 1.37%, hit on 7/8/16 just after the Brits voted to leave the European Union (EU). The risks of a no-deal Brexit have eased in recent days, though it still could happen next month. A hard Brexit could cause the bond yield to retest its recent...
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From FOMO to FONIR
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Trump’s Game of Chicken
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Bonds In Neverland
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Yield Curve Inverts: Head for the Hills?
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The Great Inflation Delusion
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Embezzelcoin
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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As Good Once As It Ever Was
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it. But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. And whenever we think there’s a story behind...
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Death in Slow Motion
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ET Live! – 9.18.2019
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Mailbag
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Hello Darkness My Old Friend
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Narrative is not a Disease. Narrative is Us.
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Sparks, Arcs and Trademarks
Eurostat News Releases
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Annual inflation stable at 1.0% in the euro area
Download PDF
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Production in construction down by 0.7% in euro area
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Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.3%
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Annual growth in labour costs at 2.7% in euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €24.8 bn
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Industrial production down by 0.4% in euro area
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Regional diversity in the EU – how does your region compare?
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on July 30-31, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30-May 1, 2019
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19-20, 2019
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans
Global Macro Monitor
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President Trump grants exemptions on 400 tariffs
Probably not the roll back China was looking for? [embedded content] Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
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What’s Hot In Women’s Fashion
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Beware Mocking Bubbles & Bears
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QOTD: Pick Your Poison, Or Not
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Major Global Stock Market Caps
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The ‘Bots Are Coming For The Priests
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Be Skeptics Of Macro Data In The Two-Speed Economy
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Weekly Indicators for September 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha
- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.For all of the discussion about various iterations of the treasury bond yield curve, it is little noted that right now it is sending a different message than virtually every other long leading indicator for the economy.As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and bring me a penny or two for my efforts.
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A closer look at the housing rebound
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Initial claims increasingly foreclose 2019-early 2020 downturn
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Housing: BOOM!
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Industrial production rebounds; another message of slowdown, no recession
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Weekly Indicators for September 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha
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Last week’s initial jobless claims still show slowdown, no recession
Humble student of the markets
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Buy the dips, sell the rips
Mid-week market update: The SPX has been mired in a trading range for several weeks. Even as the market is once again testing resistance, it is displaying a mild positive RSI divergences, which argues that there may be further minor upside to resistance at about 2950. Nevertheless, this pattern argues for a trading strategy of buying the dips, and selling the rips. Retest of lows ahead? In addition to the apparent range-bound behavior,...
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Peak Brexit panic?
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Peering into 2020: New decade, new paradigm
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Audit your trading the way pros do it
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A White Swan market
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A correction, or a trade war meltdown?
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Ripe for a counter-trend rally
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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“Can We Afford a Green New Deal?”
[I was at an event the other night bringing together people from the economic-policy and climate activism worlds. I was asked to talk about the macroeconomic case for a Green New Deal, and the question of “how do we pay for it?” Here is a somewhat extended and edited version of my remarks.] Most of the Democratic candidates now have plans for major public investment programs to deal with the challenge of climate change. These involve spending...
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J. W. Mason 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
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The Return of the Renter
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Good News on the Economy, Bad News on Economic Policy
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Video: Monetary Policy since the Crisis
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Populism, or Its Opposite?
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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The Moment You Know You Know, You Know! 09-20-19
Market Review & Update The Moment You Know Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we started our discussion by itemizing the list of all the things going “right” for the bullish narrative. Trump easing up on tariffs and trade negotiations The ECB (European Central Bank) went “all-in” on cutting rates and launching more...
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-20-19
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Since 2000 Wage Growth Has Barely Grown, If You Even Got That Much
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The Fed & The Stability/Instability Paradox
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QE Debate: Powell’s Comment On “Resuming Balance Sheet Growth”
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Caution: Mean Reversion Ahead
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Today’s Melt Up Triggers Tomorrow’s Melt Down
Marc Chandler
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Central Banks may be Data Dependent, Whatever that Means, but Investors Aren’t
US jobs growth slowed in August, but nearly all the subsequent data, including retail sales, industrial and manufacturing output, housing starts, permits, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators were stronger than expected. Core CPI accelerated to an 11-year high of 2.4%. Economic surprise models have exploded, and Citibank's measure reached an 18-month high last week. The FOMC rate cut, statement, forecasts, and the chair's...
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UK and India Provide Excitement Ahead of the Weekend
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Investors Looking for New Focus
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Did the Fed Deliver a Hawkish Cut?
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FOMC Meets Amid Money Market Pressures
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Cool Video: TDAmeritrade Network–FOMC, Repo, Brexit and More
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Markets Calm(er)
Mish’s Global Economic
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Odds of Brexit Deal Rise as 2 Most Recent UK Polls Show Lib Dems vs Labour Split
The strategies of Labour and the Lib Dems show they will split the Remain vote. This greatly enhances the odds of a deal Clear Choice Two UK political parties provide a clear choice. Brexit Party: Nigel Farage wants to Leave with No Deal Liberal Democrats: Jo Swinson wants to Remain with No Referendum by Canceling Article 50 Ambiguous Tory: Boris Johnson says he wants a deal but is prepared to walk away. Labour: Jeremy Corbyn proposes to...
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Wage Growth for Men About 1/4% Per Year Since 2000, Women About 1/2% Per Year
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US Banks Have $1.4T in Excess Reserves Yet Need Daily “Emergency” Fed Actions
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Edging Closer to a Brexit Deal (Might Even Be a Fair One)
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Bankrupt Illinois Cities Forced to Cut Services to Fund Pensions
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Yield Curve Still Inverted Despite Fed Rate Cut
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Existing Home Sales Rise More Than Expected, Return to 2016-2017 Levels
Naked Capitalism
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Links 9/21/19
Spotted in Kenya: A Baby Zebra With Polka Dots Smithsonian (Dr. Kevin) Where The Wild Things Were is Where Humans Are Now Journal of Human Ecology, available for free here or here (Lawrence R) Facial Reconstruction Shows What The Enigmatic Denisovans Might Have Looked Like Gizmodo (Kevin W) Death and the Labyrinth MS PAINT HELP Choking and gasping in Indonesia’s noxious haze Asia Times (resilc) ‘Massive Reduction’: US, Canada Have Lost 3...
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Trump May Get Much of the World’s Manufacturing Out of China, but It Won’t Be Coming Back to the U.S.
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Ending Temp Workers Is at Center of Auto Workers Strike
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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/20/2020
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Iran Doesn’t Want Conflict, Says Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, But Any US-Saudi Attack Would Spark ‘All-Out War’
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Links 9/20/19
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The Fed Has Not Covered Itself in Glory: Fed Funds Mess Edition
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Energy transition dampens appetite for Asian mega-refinery projects
Asia has been the last bastion of large oil refinery projects for years, but overcapacity in the near term and the decarbonization of transport fuels further out have raised questions over the need for more large-scale refining projects. China and the Middle East are still adding new capacity that will come online in the next three to four years. But most of these projects were approved when the global economic outlook was still robust, and...
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Alternative tech could dent diesel demand in US road freight sector
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LNG sector transformation underway as long-term contracts dwindle
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Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this week
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Ferrous scrap plays catch up after steel’s dramatic tumble
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China steel, refining capacity rises as supply-side reforms come under pressure
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London missing out on Aramco IPO could be a blessing in disguise
The Big Picture
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MIB: Sarah Ketterer, CEO Causeway
September 21, 2019 9:00am by Barry Ritholtz This week, we speak with we speak with Sarah Ketterer, Chief executive officer and cofounder at Causeway Capital Management, an international value manager with $52 billion under management. She was Morningstar International Manager of the Year in 2017. Ketterer notes “There is always a price for everything” where it eventually becomes too cheap not to own....
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10 Weekend Reads
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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.20.19
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MIB: Psychologists & Behavioral Economists
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10 Friday AM Reads
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1971 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 “Daytona”
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Sharp Decline in Childhood Mortality
The Capital Spectator
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Book Bits | 21 September 2019
● Paper Dragons: China and the Next Crash By Walden BelloSummary via publisher (ZED Books) Emerging relatively unscathed from the banking crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as a model of both rampant success and fiscal stability. But beneath the surface lies a network of fissures that look likely to erupt into the next big financial crash. A bloated real-estate sector, roller-coaster stock market, and rapidly growing shadow-banking sector...
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Research Review | 20 September 2019 | Factor Investing
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Macro Briefing | 20 September 2019
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 September 2019
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Macro Briefing | 19 September 2019
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Beware The Wild West Of Recession Analytics
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Macro Briefing | 18 September 2019
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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“What Were You Like At 17?”: Maher Defends Kavanaugh In Fiery Exchange With Liberal Guests
"What Were You Like At 17?": Maher Defends Kavanaugh In Fiery Exchange With Liberal Guests On his show Friday night, Bill Maher and his panel got into a heated debate over the "new" allegations about Brett Kavanaugh - yes, the ones even his accuser can't remember. Maher even turned on his liberal comrades, adopting the position ...
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Jeffrey Epstein Paid Doctors To Drug ‘Sex Slaves’: Report
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Why Are So Many Top-Tier College Girls Turning To ‘Soft Prostitution’?
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The Weird Obsessions Of Central Bankers, Part 1
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Canada’s “Wokest” PM Just Took A Hit In The Polls After Blackface Scandal
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Peloton IPO Guide… And Why It Makes No Sense
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Trade Talks Back On: Here’s Why China Canceled Its Trip To Montana And Nebraska