Macro
Zerohedge
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“The Entire Dynamic Has Changed” Far-Right Groups Becoming Increasingly Visible On Campus
The “Unite the Right” rally at the University of Virginia last week was only the beginning... As far-right groups find fertile ground for recruiting on campus, campuses are bracing for a flood of speaking events and demonstrations organized by white nationalist groups, according to the Associated Press, as many schools have determined that they can't, ...
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Why Gun Sales Have Declined Under Trump
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There’s Good News And Bad News For Obamacare Buyers In Iowa
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U.S. Has 3.5 Million More Registered Voters Than Live Adults – A Red Flag For Electoral Fraud
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Bannon Speaks: “I’m Going To War For Trump”
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Carl Icahn Says He Is No Longer Trump’s Special Advisor
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Newt Offers Warning: “Trump’s Much More Isolated Than He Realizes”
The Capital Spectator
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A Brief Interruption In The Program…
The world headquarters of The Capital Spectator will be closing for a long weekend, starting… now. Our regularly scheduled programming will return shortly — on Monday, Aug. 21, to be precise. Cheers!
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 16 August 2017
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Currency Hedging: A Double-Edged Sword For Equity Investors
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Rising Geopolitical Tension Lifts Foreign Bond ETFs
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Book Bits | 12 August 2017
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Rising North Korea Tensions Threaten US Q3 GDP Outlook
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War Of Words Reignites Demand For Safe Havens
Marc Chandler
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Dollar and Equities Trade Heavily Ahead of the Weekend
The second largest drop in US equities this year has spilled over to drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell nearly 0.5%, snapping a four-day advance and cutting this week's gain in half. The Dow Jones Stoxx did not completely escape the US carnage yesterday, but losses are accelerating today, with a nearly 1% decline following a 0.6% decline yesterday. Despite the better than expected retail sales figures earlier in...
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Markets Exaggerate, That is what They Do
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Euro Softens on Crosses, Treasuries Stabilize
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Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?
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Swiss Franc and Yen Remain Heavy as New Distractions Replace DPRK
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NAFTA: Rock, Paper, Scissors
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Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions
Mish’s Global Economic
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Investment Advice in Four Words: Have Patience, Avoid Bubbles
A relations manager for Ted Thomas reached out last week and asked: “What is your most valuable advice to people who are beginner investors so that they can get great results in the long term?” The answer form had no formatting options. Here is a detailed response, with links. Have Patience, Avoid Bubbles The TINA theory (there is no alternative other than stocks and bonds) is a path to poor returns. Cash and gold are indeed options. I...
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More Headline Amusement: Consumer Sentiment Surges
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Fearful Investors Losing Faith in Trump?
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Unexpectedly Weak Industrial Production Report Released Unexpectedly Early
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Absurd Inflation Discussion by Fed Jackasses
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Housing Starts Unexpectedly Sink, Multi-Family in Huge 34% Retreat Year-Over-Year
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India Bans Gold Exports “Without a Valid Reason”
BK Asset Management
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There’s More Trouble Ahead for the Dollar & USD/JPY
There’s More Trouble Ahead for the Dollar & USD/JPY Daily FX Market Roundup 08.18.17 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management The single most important theme in the financial markets this past week was risk aversion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its largest one day decline in 3 months while the VIX, which measures the volatility in the equity market rose to its highest level since April....
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US Stocks Fall, Dollar Dumped, Euro Holds 1.17
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Dollar Holds its Ground
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No Relief for the Dollar as Trump Disband Councils
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Will FOMC Minutes Lift USDJPY Through 111.00?
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3 Reasons Why the Dollar Backed Off Good Data
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Dollar Roars Back
Calculated Risk
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Oil Rigs "Rigs counts are now off the peak"
A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Aug 18, 2017:• Rigs counts are now off the peak• Total US oil rigs were down 5 to 763• Horizontal oil rigs were down 4 at 650...• Expect rigs counts to roll off for the next three months or so, with oil prices languishing in the $46-49 range typically.Click on graph for larger image.CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin.Graph and comments Courtesy of...
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Sacramento Housing in July: Sales up Slightly YoY, Active Inventory down 18% YoY
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
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BLS: Unemployment Rates Unchanged in 46 states in July, Two States at New Series Lows
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Mortgage Rates Fall below 4%, Lowest since November 2016
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year
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Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "region continued to advance" in August
Charles Hugh Smith
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Are Profit and Healthcare Incompatible?
The only way to systemically lower costs is to make prevention and transparency the top priorities. As I have been noting for a decade, the broken U.S. healthcare system will bankrupt the nation all by itself. We all know the basic facts: the system delivers uneven results in terms of improving health and life expectancy while costing two or three times more per person compared to our advanced-economy global competitors. U.S. Lifestyle +...
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Why We’re Doomed: Our Economy’s Toxic Inequality
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Are We Already in Recession?
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What the Mainstream Doesn’t Get about Bitcoin
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Powerlessness and Consumerism
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Not All Capital Is Equal; Some Is Destructive
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Is Another Oil Head-Fake Brewing?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Industrial production: once again, the hard data fails to confirm the sof … ofertheluvofgaud
- by New Deal democrat This morning's report on industrial production confirms that the economy remains on autopilot, and that's a good thing. Overall production increased again, and the trend of rising production since spring of last year is clear: When we break it down by manufacturing (blue, left scale), mining, and utilities (red and green, right scale), we get pretty much the same picture: While it's true that...
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Housing is still going sideways
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On the erection of Confederate memorials: in which I have to get this off my chest
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Real retail sales disappoints . . . the Doomers
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One tiny little ray of hope
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Measuring full employment by actual hires vs. job openings
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“The Changing of the Guard:” the prescient 1980 book that foretold neoliberalism
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Reading Notes: Demand and Productivity
Here are two interesting articles on demand and productivity that people have recently brought to my attention. The economic historian Gavin Wright — author of the classic account of the economic logic of the plantation — just sent me a piece he wrote a few years ago on the productivity boom of the 1990s. As he said in his email, his account of the ‘90s is very consistent with the suggestions I make in my Roosevelt paper about how strong...
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What Recovery: Reading Notes
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The Big Question for Macroeconomic Policy: Is This Really Full Employment?
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Links for July 17, 2017
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At the Left Forum: What’s the Alternative to Neoliberalism?
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Posts in Three Lines
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Links for May 5, 2017
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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16/8/17: Year Eight of the Great American Recovery: Household Debt
U.S. data for household debt for 2Q 2017 is out at last, and the likes of Reuters and there best of the official business media are shouting over each other about the ‘record debt levels’ warnings. As if the ‘record debt levels’ is something so refreshingly new, that no one noticed them in 1Q 2017. So with that much hoopla in your favourite media pages, what’s the data really telling us? Quite a bit, folks. Quite a bit. Let’s start...
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15/8/17: A Great Recovery or a Great Stagnation?
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12/8/17: Some growth optimism from the Russian regional data
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12/8/17: Are Irish Property Prices on a Sustainable Path?
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10/8/17: 2Q Start Ups Funding Data: Big Lessons Coming
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9/8/17: Global Debt Bubble 2002-2017
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9/8/17: Euro Area Banks Bailouts: The Legacy Still Hangs Over Our Heads
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Commitment of Traders: Crude Confounding Confusion
The price of oil can’t seem to climb out of the $40’s despite a lot going for it at the moment. Oil prices matter right now as much as three years ago when they signaled serious trouble ahead. For them to get above $50 and then continue on would indicate for a lot of important places what everyone has expected of “reflation.” That would be true for inflation rates as well as other pessimistic prices like eurodollar futures and UST yields....
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Still Written in Chinese
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Global Asset Allocation Update: No Upside To Credit
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The Fed Tries To Tighten By Rates, But The System Instead Tightens By Repo
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Lack Of Industrial Momentum Is (For Now) Big Auto Problems
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Running Out of TIC ‘Reflation’
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Stuck in the Basement Until Something Actually Changes
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: Is The Bull Market Slowing?
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following: Discuss an important issue for traders; Highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas; Feature advice from top traders and writers; and, Provide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts. We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some earnings season ideas, please...
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A Guide to Portfolio Diversification
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the North Korea Threat be the Catalyst for a Market Correction?
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Dash of Insight 2017-08-11 08:05:18
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The Unsolved Mystery of the Cramer Rant
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Aaron Brown Wins Silver Bullet: Why Context is Needed in Reading Charts
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Raise Price Targets?
Curious Cat
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Health Savings Accounts in the USA
Health Savings Accounts (HSA) allow you to save money in order to pay health expenses in a tax free account. They are similar to an IRA but are for health expenses. Eligibility is limited to those with high deductible health care plans. HSA funds can be saved over the years. Flexible spending accounts are somewhat similar but that money can not be rolled from one year to the next. The idea with HSA is you can save money in good years so you...
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Ending my Experiment of Investing in Peer to Peer Loans
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Economic Competition and Supply Chains
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – May 2017
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Long Term Changes in Underlying Stock Market Valuation
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Historical Global Economic Data and Current Issues for Globalization
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Warren Buffett’s 2016 Letter to Shareholders
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Both Parties Agree: Medicare Projected Shortfall Improved Under Obama
Trump’s Medicare trustees recently released their report on the health of Social Security and Medicare. Trump’s trustees reported that there was a sharp improvement in the projections of Medicare’s finances during the Obama administration – this is notable because it signals bipartisan agreement that the projected shortfall is markedly smaller than what policymakers were looking ...
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State and Local Laws Have Extended Paid Sick Leave Access to Millions
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Strong Job Growth Continues in July
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Black Women in Healthcare Face Declining Real Wages
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Will Lower Taxes Get Us Higher Growth? The Labor Market Doesn’t Seem to Think So
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Long-term Projections of Social Security’s and Medicare’s Financing are Not as Scary as They Seem
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Is Amazon’s Stock Price Justified? What It Means If It Is
Economic Populist
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Trump’s RAISE Act Immigration Bill
As I reported here the other day, the White House has endorsed an immigration reform bill by Sens. Cotton and Perdue, known as the RAISE Act. The bill seems to be already drawing both support and fierce opposition. CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta was so upset about the Trump administration’s endorsement of the bill that he picked a fight with Trump’s senior policy adviser Stephen Miller during the latter’s press conference. Harvard...
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Topics & Tags
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Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP & Revisions From 2014 to Present
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Perhaps Globalists Shouldn’t be Questioning Other People’s Patriotism
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Russia is not Our Enemy
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America Will Fail Without Reinacting Glass-Steagall
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The Great US Natural Gas Exports Myth
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/18/2017
Recent Items 2:00PM Water Cooler 8/18/2017 - 08/18/2017 - Lambert Strether G20 Climate Commitments and China’s One Belt One Road - 08/18/2017 - Yves Smith Links 8/18/17 - 08/18/2017 - Yves Smith How to Use Fiscal and Monetary Policy to Make Us Rich Again - 08/18/2017 - Yves Smith Charlottesville: “I Think a Lot More People Are Going to Die Before We Are Done” - 08/18/2017 - Yves Smith Are Investors Bailing On U.S. Shale? -...
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G20 Climate Commitments and China’s One Belt One Road
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Links 8/18/17
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How to Use Fiscal and Monetary Policy to Make Us Rich Again
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Charlottesville: “I Think a Lot More People Are Going to Die Before We Are Done”
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Are Investors Bailing On U.S. Shale?
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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/17/2017
Lance Roberts RIA
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Weekend Reading: Losing The Faith?
Last week, I penned the following: “Now, you would suspect the possibility of nuclear war might just be the catalyst to send markets reeling, but looking at the market’s reaction on Thursday, I suspect there will be t-shirts soon reading: ‘I survived the threat of nuclear war and the ‘great crash of 2017’ of 1.5%'” Of course, as markets touched on their 50-dma, the algos kicked in hard on Monday morning sending the markets surging higher. The...
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The Great Disconnect: Markets vs. Economy
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Salt, Wampum, Benjamins – Is Bitcoin Next? A Primer on Cryptocurrency
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5-Must See Charts For Retirement Distributions
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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning Back To Extremes
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Some Thoughts On “Long-Term Investing”
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BTF-NOKO 08-11-17
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index: “Womenomics Falls Short for Japan”
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.5, up slightly from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.63%, unchanged from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.5, down from the previous week. "Womenomics Falls Short for Japan" ECRI's most recent headline article raises concerns over Japan's labor market and future...
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: August Preliminary Highest Since January
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Rose 0.2% in July
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The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued Increases in July, Another All-Time High
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Secular Trends in Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Continued Advancement in August
The Barrel Blog
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Amazon vs Maersk: The clash of titans shaking the container industry
Approximately 90% of the world’s trade travels by sea and one would expect the industry’s supply chain to be the height of modernity by adopting disruptive technology and strategies. However, this could not be further from the truth. While online trading platforms are under development, the traditionalism of the industry prevails with various parties involved in each voyage, typically communicating via trade managers. In this archaic set-up,...
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Cheaper or greener: Colombia eyes US ethanol with trepidation
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Neo-colonialist attitudes spark African ire: Energy Economist
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Oil terminal launches weekly quality report for LOOP Sour blended crude: In the LOOP
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The plight of the light sweet crude barrel: Fuel for Thought
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Fees, delays on Pemex open season puzzle Mexico’s gasoline market investors
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Winter is coming … to narrow US gasoline spreads
Eurostat News Releases
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.6 bn
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Annual inflation stable at 1.3% in the euro area
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GDP up by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU28
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Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.5% in euro area
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Industrial producer prices down by 0.1% in euro area
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GDP up by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU28
Commodity Blog
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Weak Demand, Stronger US Dollar Send Coffee Futures Lower
Coffee futures are trading lower on Thursday amid a strengthening US dollar and weaker demand for the commodity. Coffee prices are at multi-week lows, and many analysts say arabica and robusta could tumble even further because of rising supplies coming out of Brazil. September coffee futures plunged $0.024, or 1.82%, to $1.285 per pound at 16:45 GMT on Thursday on London’s ICE Futures exchange. Coffee prices are settling at their lowest levels...
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Copper Futures Surge 3% amid China Restrictions
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Weak Chinese Data, Rising US Dollar Fuel Oil Sell-Off
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Bitcoin Market Cap Reaches 70$ Billion, Now Worth More Than Paypal
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Bitcoin Price Breaks Through $4,200 One Day After Reaching $4,000
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Easing North Korea Tensions Snaps Gold’s Four-Session Win Streak
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Commodities Technical Analysis, August 14th — August 18th
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product for American Samoa, 2016
Download PDF
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2017
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Personal Income and Outlays, June 2017
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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2017 (advance estimate), and annual update
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st quarter 2017
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1st quarter 2017
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New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2014-2016
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Volatility Rising As Dollar Tries To Bottom
Weekly Notes With Tiho — Issue 13Location: Belgrade, SerbiaMonday was an interesting day, especially following last weeks events.Most stock markets around the world are reversing their losses, while volatility is calming down.Firstly, let us look at the week that was.Gold was the best performing asset last week and an asset that I’ve been tracking closely over the last couple of weeks due to its technical coiling pattern.Treasuries also did...
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Complacency Continues As Warnings Mount
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5 Things to Consider Before Starting the “Travel Points Hustle” Part 4
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Dollar Pessimists, Gold’s Indecision & Market Complacency
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From Asia to Europe, Economy Is Booming Again!
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Performance Summary For The First Half Of Year
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Are You Denominated In The Right Currency?
Humble student of the markets
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Things you don’t see at market bottoms: Wild claims edition
Get more articles like thisBack to full articleIt is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late...
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What’s the upside target in this rally?
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In search of the elusive inflation surge
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Looking for froth in the wrong places
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Things you don’t see at market bottoms, Retailphoria edition
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U-S-A! U-S-A!
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Are stocks being stalked by a silent Zombie Apocalypse?
Global Macro Monitor
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Build More Statues Of These Heroes
“They won. Helped save the United States. I like winners”. Who could have said that? I have learned that success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has had to overcome while trying to succeed. – Booker T. Washington Build statues of these men. pic.twitter.com/5ToydKJJF4 — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) August 17, 2017 div{float:left;margin-right:10px;}...
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Uncle Carl Out!
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QOTD 2.0: Bannon Going Nuclear
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POTD: España Fuerte!
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QOTD: Bannon Now Outside The Tent
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Buckled Up For Structured Criticality
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Gone Fishin’
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Four Deuces Scenario
While real GDP growth continues to amble along at a leisurely pace of 2.0% y/y, the labor market is sprinting at a fast pace. In the 7/31 Morning Briefing, I described my 2-2-2 economic scenario, with real GDP continuing to grow around 2.0% y/y, inflation remaining at or slightly below 2.0%, and the federal funds rate peaking late next year at 2.00%. One of my accounts suggested the Four Deuces (2-2-2-2) scenario, adding the unemployment rate...
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Investors Hearing Call of the Wild
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Summertime Lullaby
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China: The Xi Dynasty’s Debt Extravaganza
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Stocks: Still Fundamentally Good
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US Corporate Finance: Show Me the Money
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Global Demography: Birth Dearth & Urbanization