Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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China Enters 2020 Still (Intent On) Managing Its Decline
Chinese Industrial Production accelerated further in December 2019, rising 6.9% year-over-year according to today’s estimates from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That was a full percentage point above consensus. IP had bottomed out right in August at a record low 4.4%, and then, just as this wave of renewed optimism swept the world, it has rebounded alongside it. Rather than suggest the global economy is picking up, or ended last...
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Neither US Retail Nor Industry Ended 2019 In A Good Place
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Germany, Maybe Europe: No Signs Of The Bottom
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Why So Much Fuss Over SOFR?
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Inflation, But Only At The Morgue
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Why 2014? Less (Big) Banks, Fewer ‘Dollars’, No Growth
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401(k) Contribution Limit Goes Up in 2020
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 3rd Quarter 2019
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the third quarter ranged from 4.0 percent in Texas to 0.0 percent in Delaware (table 1). Nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading...
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd Quarter 2019
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2019
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U.S. International Investment Position, 3rd quarter 2019
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Personal Income and Outlays, November 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2019 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2019 (revised estimate)
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U.S. International Transactions, 3rd quarter 2019
BK Asset Management
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Great Week for Dollar, Euro Recovery Ahead?
Great Week for Dollar, Euro Recovery Ahead? Daily FX Market Roundup 01.17.20 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management The US dollar wraps up another good week with gains against most of the major currencies. The only exceptions were the Swiss Franc which climbed to its strongest level in 3 months and the Canadian dollar, which held onto its recent gains. Investors brushed off softer US inflation data in favor of...
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Dollar Bulls Charge Ahead as Data Validates Rally
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Risk Continues its Rally – Will US Consumer Confirm?
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UK Inflation Drop Hints at Rate Cut
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Will 2020’s First NFP Report Help the Dollar?
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First Full Week of FX Trade to Kick Off with a Bang
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Dollar and Euro’s Election Year Trading Behavior
Bull Markets
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Our portfolio
In the interest of transparency, here’s how my wife and I allocate our assets: 20% in various trading models (U.S. equities) 20% in a long term market timing model (U.S. equities) 20% in a buy and hold strategy (U.S. equities) 40% in bond ETFs (to be used for other investments outside of U.S. equities when those opportunities arise) My wife also owns a construction company, which constitutes a significant portion of our net worth. But since...
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
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August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
Calculated Risk
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in December, up 0.9% from November’s preliminary pace and up 8.0% from last December’s weak seasonally-adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a significantly higher...
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CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in "nearly seven years"
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%
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Comments on December Housing Starts
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BLS: Job Openings "Fell" to 6.8 Million in November
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Industrial Production Decreased in December
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Housing Starts increased to 1.608 Million Annual Rate in December
CEPR Blog
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Poverty, the Poor People’s Campaign, and the Free College Tuition Debate
During the January 14th Democratic Presidential Debate, as part of the discussion of whether tuition at public college should be free for all, Pete Buttigieg had this to say: “There is a very real choice about what we do with every single taxpayer dollar that we raise, and we need to be using that to ...
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The Revolving Door Project and Demand Progress Call On Lawmakers to Investigate Revolving Door’s Influence on SEC’s WeCompany Review
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Coalition Requests Moderators Ask About Executive Branch
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Should We Care How Many People LBJ Would Think are Poor Today?
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Modern Family Progressivism, Part Two: Reply to Kevin Drum
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Coalition Requests Moderators Ask About Executive Branch
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Modern Family Progressivism
Charles Hugh Smith
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If Promoting Wealth Inequality and Social Breakdown Is Evil, The Fed Is Evil
The Fed will destroy the nation by widening the wealth/income inequality that is breaking down the nation's social order. President Reagan was widely mocked in America when he declared the Soviet Union an evil empire, but this calling things by their real name had a profound impact in the Eastern Bloc. The mockery stemmed from the secularized American view that there was precious little moral difference between the USSR and the US, that the...
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No Matter How Much Money the Fed Prints, We Still Can’t Afford Nice Things
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Instability Rising: Why 2020 Will Be Different
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409Ks, 90% Gains, The Fed and Darth Vader’s Warning
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Just a Friendly Heads-Up, Bulls: The Fed Just Slashed its Balance Sheet
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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization
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Was Marx Right about Capitalism Destroying Itself from Within?
Commodity Blog
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Palladium Futures Hit Record $2,300 As Supply Deficit Worsens
Palladium futures hit an all-time high of $2,300 at the end of the trading week before paring their gains. Spot palladium prices topped $2,500 an ounce, and analysts are expecting even further acceleration as the long-term supply deficit ostensibly worsens. After recording its best weekly performance in nearly 20 years, can palladium extend its four-year rally? March palladium futures surged $55.40, or 2.54%, to $2,233.20 per ounce at 18:29...
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Bitcoin Tests $9,000 Resistance As Crypto Market Turns Green
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Natural Gas Rises As Supply Build Beats Market Forecasts
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Soybeans Settles Lower Despite US-China Phase One Deal Signed
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Copper Struggling for Direction Despite Bullish 2020 Forecast
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Bitcoin Reaches New 2020 Highs As Bulls Push for $8,600
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Gold Posts Worst Day of 2020 Amid Stronger Dollar, Phase One Trade Deal
South China Morning Post
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HSBC aware of Huawei’s ties with Iran unit before arrest of founder’s daughter, documents show
[unable to retrieve full-text content]The Canadian extradition proceedings of Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou hinge on allegations she made a fraudulent presentation to HSBC in 2013 over the technology giant’s business ties in Iran, but recently revealed documents show the bank had been aware of Huawei’s business relationships in the Middle Eastern country for years earlier.The documents seen by the South China Morning...
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China’s birth rate decline and economic growth slump present new challenges after trade war deal
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US-China tech war to be ‘defining issue of this century’, despite signing of phase one trade deal
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China’s birth rate falls to near 60-year low, with 2019 producing fewest babies since 1961
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China GDP growth last year was 6.1 per cent, slowest rate for 29 years
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Asean, RCEP trade partners unlikely beneficiaries from US-China trade war, Deloitte economist says
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EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan criticises US-China phase one trade deal, claims it is unlikely to boost competitiveness or jobs
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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16/1/20: Irish GE2020: Kommersant
My musings on the Irish election 2020 via Russia's Kommersant.ru: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4220157.
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15/1/20: Putin’s Latest Call Option Buy
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15/1/20: What Trade Deal Phase 1/N Says About the Four Horsemen of Apocalypse
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15/1/20: S&P500 Historical Performance
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10/1/20: U.S. Tariffs on European Wines: Inflicting Self-Harm
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10/1/20: Eight centuries of global real interest rates
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9/1/20: Herding and Anchoring in Cryptocurrency Markets
Curious Cat
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
This post is an exploration of a specific stock Tucows (TCX). Tucows, based in Canada, has built from their domain registration business into a company with 3 businesses poised for predictable cash flow generation. In 2012 Tucows added Ting Mobile, a business that resells access to cell phone networks (Sprint, for CDMA, and T-mobile for GSM phones). This is not a flashy business but is a reliable cash flow generator. In 2015 they added...
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Time to Worry About Inflation?
The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season. Of late, the calendar has not provided much of a clue to the upcoming market action. More than ever, we just know what to watch for. I am probably a little early on this week’s theme, but there are some signs of...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Middle East Conflict Bring an End to the Bull Market?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?
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Stock Exchange: Time to Batten Down the Hedges?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent?
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Stock Exchange: Intuition or Intu wishing?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Whose Year-Ahead Vision is 20/20?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Secular Trends in Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: January Preliminary Inches Up
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down in December
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New Residential Housing Jump in December
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New Residential Building Permits: 1.416M in December
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear
Strategy I: Here Comes Another Earnings Season. First, the bad news: During the 1/9 week, industry analysts estimated that S&P 500 earnings per share fell 1.7% y/y in Q4-2019 (Fig. 1). They currently estimate that earnings rose just 1.1% last year (Fig. 2). That was mostly because the comparison with 2018 was tough, as earnings soared 23.8% that year thanks to Trump’s tax cut for corporations. In addition, S&P 500 revenues per share...
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How to Get YRI’s App
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Central Banks Likely to Keep Santa Claus Rally Going In 2020
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Paul Volcker: The Great Disinflator
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Inflation Remains in a Coma in Major Economies, Frustrating Central Bankers
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Thanksgiving: The Bull Is No Turkey
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Are Stocks Overvalued?
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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The Church of the Long Now
To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. That’s Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on the left and JR “Bob” Dobbs, High Epopt of the Church of the SubGenius, on the right. I know, I know … it’s me being mean to Neel again. But I just couldn’t help myself...
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That Which We Call a Law School
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The Worm Turns
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Shot, Chaser
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Alpha/Beta Amnesiacs
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Credit and Debt Monitor – 12.31.2019
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US Recession Monitor – 12.31.2019
Eurostat News Releases
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Production in construction up by 0.7% in euro area
Download PDF
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Annual inflation up to 1.3% in the euro area
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1 in 4 EU citizens avoided providing personal information to social or professional networking services due to security concerns
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House prices up by 4.1% in both the euro area and the EU
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €20.7 bn
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Industrial production up by 0.2% in euro area
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Household saving rate nearly stable at 13.0% in the euro area
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10-11, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Friday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on December 10-11, 2019. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30-May 1, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time
We are reposting this in honor of Dr. King, a truly great American. Originally Posted on January 21, 2019 During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major cities to present our ideas to institutional investors. One particular year, we were in Atlanta at the end of the week and scheduled for another “greatest show on earth” in Chicago the next Tuesday. A Weekend In...
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The Secular Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment
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How Is That Austrian Century Bond Doing?
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Stocks Get Vertical & Vertigo
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“Phase 1” Of Potemkin Trade Deal Signed, Sealed, And Yet To Deliver
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The New Quant Strategy
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U.S. Treasury Borrowing & QE Forever
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Housing BOOM! 2
- by New Deal democratHousing is a very important long leading indicator, and it reflects both the consumer and producer sides of the economy. And this morning, at least in terms of starts, it hit a grand slam. Total housing starts were 1.608 million units annualized, the highest number since the end of 2006. The less volatile and slightly more leading permits declined slightly to 1.416 million units annualized, but the three month average...
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The consumer is (probably) still alright: initial jobless claims and retail sales
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Producer sales not keeping up with producer price inputs
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Real wages declined slightly in Q4 2019; nearly flat since last January
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Scenes from the December jobs report: leading jobs sectors and wages
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The 2020 Electoral College playing field expands for Democrats
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Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: January 7 and 11, 1869
Humble student of the markets
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Is the market melting up?
Mid-week market update: I am leaving on a seasonal family vacation tomorrow, so posting will be lighter than usual. While the usual weekend publications will continue, tactical market interpretations are problematical this time of year when liquidity is low. However, here are some guidelines on how to think about the stock market for the remainder of 2019. Recently, there have been more voices calling for a market melt-up. Bloomberg reported...
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Factor investing: Theory vs. practice
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Adventures in banking
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Here comes the beta chase
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The market is oversold? Already?
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How far can Tariff Man dent the stock market?
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Assessing the technical damage
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Utz-Pieter Reich on the Nominal and the Real
What oft was thought, but ne’er so well expressed: The lack of realism in microeconomic value theory has been overcompensated by an unquenched desire for `real’ figures. Idealism in the concepts of theory has resulted in a plethora of empirical concepts for real value, and the development of index number theory is thus characterised by an inventive sequence of euphemistic terms. We have an `ideal’ index, a `true’ (cost of living) index, an...
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What Should be Universal and Free?
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Are We Mismeasurng Productivity?
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Considerations on Rent Control
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Presentation on Public Spending and Debt
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CBO Interest Rate Forecasts, 2011-2019
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The CBO Just Handed Us Two Trillion Dollars
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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FPC: Do You Have A “Financial Vulnerability” Cushion?
REGISTER NOW for our most popular workshop: THE RIGHT LANE RETIREMENT CLASS The Westin Austin at the Domain- 11301 Domain Drive, Austin, TX 78758 February 8th from 9-11am. Everyone has heard of having emergency funds, but how many have heard of a financial vulnerability cushion (FVC)? Common, old rule of thumb financial rules typically dictate savings rates, but in times like we currently face should we be doing something different? I know,...
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MacroView: 2020 Market & Investment Outlook
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-13-20
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The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.
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Rosso’s 2020 Reading List – Part II
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Seth Levine: The Unsurprising Repo Surprise
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Yeah…But
Marc Chandler
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China and the UK Surprise in Opposite Directions
Overview: Helped by new record highs in the US, global stocks are moving higher today. Nearly all the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced and the seventh consecutive weekly rally is the longest in a couple of years. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs and appears set to take a four-day streak into next week. US shares are trading firmly. Since the end of last September, the S&P 500 has fallen in only three weeks....
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Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed
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Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry
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China was a Currency Manipulator for a Few Months
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Brexit Update
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Dismal Data Undercuts Sterling and Boosts Chances of a Rate Cut
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Technicals: The Underlying Signal
Mish’s Global Economic
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China Posts Slowest Growth in 29 Years But Still Overstated
China posted another quarter of 6% annualized GDP. That's the slowest in 29 years. The Financial Times reports China GDP grows at slowest pace in 29 years China’s economy last year grew at the lowest rate since 1990 while the country’s birth rate fell to a record low, highlighting the domestic challenges facing Beijing despite a truce in its painful trade war with the US. Also note that State Grid, China's power utility, forecasts a dramatic...
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GAO Finds Trump’s Actions Illegal as Impeachment Trial Begins
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Cass Year-Over-Year Freight Index Sinks to a 12-Year Low
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Retail Sales Mostly Solid But Department Stores Hit Again
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#NeverWarren Trends to Top Spot After Her Enormous Debate Fiasco
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Fed’s Beige Book Shows Modest Economic Expansion in Last 6 Weeks of 2019
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Producer Price Inflation Weak and Below Expectations
Naked Capitalism
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Links 1/18/2020
I cannot wait for Martin Luther King Day, when liberals and conservatives all over the country unite to ignore MLK's clear insistence that racism and economic inequality are inextricably linked and must be addressed and fought together. — Moshik Temkin (@moshik_temkin) January 17, 2020 Park Life: New Tiger Park to open in Chalong already challenged on ‘ethical confinement’ Phuket News (furzy) Gone Fishing? No Fish, but Plenty of Pesticides...
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How Climate Change Influenced Australia’s Unprecedented Fires
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Integrating Black and White American Economic History
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2:00PM Water Cooler 1/17/2020
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The Impact of CEOs in the Public Sector: Evidence from the English NHS
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Links 1/17/2020
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SEC With Investment Managers: “Like the FBI Sitting Down With the Mafia”
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Reading the tea leaves: China and commodities in 2020
China’s voracious demand for commodities and energy continued unabated in 2019 despite a slowing economy and uncertain external environment. But what will be on the agenda in 2020 as the economy, environment and energy security come into greater focus? Here are are some key trends to watch over the coming year and what they mean for commodities. Slower growth The recent signing of the first phase of a trade deal between China and the US may...
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US battery storage prospects lifted by policy progress, cost reduction
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As Maduro hangs on, US may rethink Venezuela oil sector waivers: Fuel for Thought
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
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The crude oil spectrum: Platts periodic table of oil
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So close: Nord Stream 2 gas link completion trips at last hurdle
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Commodity Tracker: Middle East special edition
The Big Picture
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MiB: Safi Bahcall, Loonshots
This week, we speak with Safi Bahcall, member of President Obama’s council of science advisors, and author of the book, “Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries.” In 2008, he was named E&Y New England Biotechnology Entrepreneur of the Year for his work on Synta Pharmaceuticals, which specialized in new drugs to treat cancer. Bahcall led its 2007 IPO on Nasdaq and served as Synta’s...
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10 Weekend Reads
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Succinct Summations for 1.17.20
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Kawhi Leonard, Please Buy a New Car
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10 Friday AM Reads
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2003 BMW Z8
The Capital Spectator
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Research Review | 17 January 2020 | Volatility
Macro News and Long-Run Volatility Expectations Anders Vilhelmsson (Lund University)December 10, 2019I propose a new model-free method for estimating long-run changes in expected volatility using VIX futures contracts. The method is applied to measure the effect on stock market volatility of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements. I find that looking at long-run changes gives qualitatively different results compared to previous studies...
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Macro Briefing | 17 January 2020
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Are Current Risk Levels For The US Stock Market Extraordinary?
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Macro Briefing | 16 January 2020
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It’s Been A Good Year So Far For (Most) Equity Markets
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Macro Briefing | 15 January 2020
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Will This Week’s Data Derail Moderate US Economic Optimism?
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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Morbidly Obese “Jabba The Jihadi” ISIS Leader Caught In Iraq
Morbidly Obese "Jabba The Jihadi" ISIS Leader Caught In Iraq A long 'most wanted' ISIS mufti responsible for ordering gruesome killings, kidnappings, rapes, as well as the destruction of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul's ancient heritage has been captured by an elite Iraqi SWAT team raid. The massively obese terror leader named Shifa al-Nima, known within the Islamic ...
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Living On Borrowed Time
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Northeast Next Stop For Large-Scale Winter Storm
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If Promoting Wealth Inequality & Social Breakdown Is Bad, The Fed Is Evil
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Air Force Conducts Ground Test Of Hypersonic X-60A Missile
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Uncle Sam Just Used Its Financial Nuclear Weapon Again
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‘Leave The Hijab On’: Germans Now ‘Obsessed’ With Refugee Porn