Macro
Zerohedge
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Strzok Stripped Of Security Clearance By FBI
FBI special agent Peter Strzok has been stripped of his security clearance, days after he was physically escorted out of his FBI office, said Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Speaking with radio host Howie Carr and first reported by Chuck Ross of the Daily Caller, Sessions said "Mr. Strzok, as I understand, has lost his security clearance." ...
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What Kind Of Country Are We?
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The First Burger Restaurant Run By A Robot Is Opening In San Francisco
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Report: New US Coalition Airstrikes On Government Positions In Eastern Syria
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Trump Gloats After SCOTUS Dings Online Retailers: “Great Victory For Consumers”
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Watch IG Horowitz’ Reaction When Asked If Hillary Committed “No Crimes”
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Novice Daytrader Mistakenly Trades In Live Account, Builds $5 Billion Position, Makes $10MM Profit
The Capital Spectator
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How Long Can Stocks Beat Bonds By A Wide Margin?
Stocks are expected to outperform bonds in the long run, but how much is too much over a medium-term horizon? The question is topical in the wake of a strong bull market for US equities over the past decade. Although stocks have had a rough ride so far in 2018, recent wobbles haven’t dented the decisive performance edge over bonds, at least not yet. Consider how representative mutual funds stack up over the past 24 years. For stocks, the proxy...
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Macro Briefing: 21 June 2018
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US Equity Bull Run Is Second Longest For Economic Expansions
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Macro Briefing: 20 June 2018
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My New R Book Is Also Available In The UK & Europe
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Will A Trade War Derail The Rebound In US Economic Growth?
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Macro Briefing: 19 June 2018
Marc Chandler
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A Change Under Foot in Europe
It seems perverse and ironic that we frequently learn more from our failures than our successes. This is translated into the affairs of countries by noting that crisis produces reforms. This seems particularly relevant for Europe. It remains a work in progress. EMU was born out of crisis. It was not a crisis spurred by the drive to converge or build a European identity as some claim. The crisis was the fall of the Berlin Wall and the...
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Dollar Driven Higher
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Is it Crazy to Like the Loonie?
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Fragile Stability
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China Takes a Hit, but What is Next?
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America First Clashes With Made in China 2025
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Politics and Economics Weigh on European Currencies
Mish’s Global Economic
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Trade Commissioner: EU “Stands Up for Open Global Trade” by Hiking Tariffs
The European Union fought back on Friday against the Trump administration’s tariffs, slapping penalties on an array of American products that target the president’s political base, like bourbon, motorcycles and orange juice. “You look at the European Union,” the president told a crowd in Duluth, Minn., on Thursday. “They put up barriers so that we can’t sell our farm products in. And yet they sell Mercedes and BMW, and the cars come in by the...
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Tesla’s Executive Departure List: Bailing the Sinking Ship
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Rosenberg’s Call: Recession, Rising Inflation, Cooling Commodities, S&P 500 Top
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Dear Mr. President: How Much More “Winning” Can We Take?
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Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation
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Merkel and Macron Agree on Immigration: Just One “Minor” Problem
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Public Outcry Forces Trump’s Hand: Executive Order Prohibiting Separation Coming
BK Asset Management
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Will BoE Put a Bid in Cable?
Market Drivers June 21, 2018 Dollar well bid across the board SNB stays pat Nikkei 0.61% Dax -0.04% Oil $65/bbl Gold $1263/oz. Bitcoin $6760 Europe and Asia: CHF SNB -0.75% North America: GBP BOE 7:00 USD Philly Fed 8:30 The dollar was well bid across the board today as US 10 year rates climbed towards the 2.95% level. Both kiwi and Aussie were noticeably weaker as interest rate differentials continue to weigh on the pairs and kiwi is now...
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Cable at 7 Month Lows as Brexit Vote Looms
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USDJPY Melts As Drumbeat of Trade War Grows Louder
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EURUSD to 1.1500?
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Why is the Dollar Rally Stalling?
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EURUSD- Will Mario Signal Taper?
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Will Fed Be Hawkish?
Calculated Risk
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Housing Inventory Tracking
It appears existing home inventory has bottomed in some areas, and might be close to bottoming nationally. For example, in May, inventory was up 8.3% year-over-year (YoY) in California. However inventory nationally was still down 6.1% YoY in May.But this isn't like in late 2005, when inventory started increasing sharply indicating the end of the housing bubble. Currently lending standards have been reasonably solid (some loosening with...
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
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Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Suggest Continuing Growth" in June
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 218,000
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Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Foreclosure Inventory Close to Pre-Recession Average
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
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AIA: "Architecture firm billings strengthen in May"
Epsilon Theory
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Mental Toughness!
There are three nevers in fashion design. Never confuse fad with fashion. Never forget it’s your name on every label. And, when showing your lines to the press, never let them see you sweat. — Donna Karan, Gillette “Dry Idea” advertisement (1984) I’d come so VERY close to getting her to go in for treatment (to the same place Catherine Zeta-Jones went for her successful bipolar treatment program). I’d spoken with them on the phone (not...
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Volatility
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The Acrobat and the Fly
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Correlation
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Momentum
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Income Report Card
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Volatility
Charles Hugh Smith
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Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin
Rather suddenly, the state issued fiat currency bolivar lost 99% of its purchasing power. Gresham's law holds that "bad money drives out good money," meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, "money" that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating "bad" to buy goods and services and hoard "good" money that is appreciating or holding its value. As...
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Onward to Stock Market Nirvana… Or Not
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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy
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What’s Wrong with the Economy: 9 Toxic Dynamics
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The Politics of Pretense: The Status Quo Is the Problem, But It Can’t Be Touched
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The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025
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Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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The state of the housing cycle
- by New Deal democratThe housing market generally proceeds according to an established cyclical rhythm.My post describing the current status of that cycle as measured by interest rates, sales, prices, and inventory can be found at XE.com.
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Further comments about the state of the housing market
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Preponderance of evidence from poor housing permits points to slowdown in GDP
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Prime age employment participation and wages: not so clear arelationship
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Children make the bestest hostages
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Weekly Indicators for June 11 – 15 at XE.com
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May industrial production: meh
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Review of Globalists
Over at Boston Review, I have a review of Quinn Slobodian’s Globalists: The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism. You can read it there, then comment here if you like.
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The Wit and Wisdom of Trygve Haavelmo
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Taxes and Investment: What Are the Questions?
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Obstfeld, Globalist
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“The financialization of the nonfinancial corporation”
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Corporate cashflows, 1960-2016
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The Class Struggle on Wall Street: A Footnote
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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21/6/18: Weaker growth signals for the euro area
I have not updated Eurocoin dynamics and euro area growth forecasts for some time now, so here is the latests, from May data:Eurocoin, leading growth indicator for the euro area, has fallen significantly from the local high of 0.96 in February (the highest growth forecast since June 2000) to 0.89 in March, followed by continued decline to 0.76 for April and 0.55 in May May reading is the lowest since December 2016 Growth forecasts consistent...
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20/6/18: Irish Labour Force Participation Rate: Persistency of a Problem
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17/6/18: ECB’s Shift of Gears Presents Another Set of Risks
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15/6/18: “Ripples in the Crypto World” – Our New Article on Systemic Risks in Cryptocurrencies
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15/6/18: Italian High Yield Bonds and Markets Exuberance
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9/6/18: Misinformed and wrong: President Trump’s trade policy stance on the EU
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8/6/18: Human Capital, Twin Secular Stagnations and Education Investments
Alhambra Investment Partners
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China Reopens With Another Sneeze
If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The celebrations have apparently spread all across the globe, with a reported 85 countries and regions (if you...
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Is Reflation #3 Over? Some Important Data Is Pointing Toward That Possibility
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Examining Rates
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Global Asset Allocation Update (VIDEO)
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The Simple Economics of What Really Matters
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Stupid’s On The Other Foot Now
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BoJ Blames Amazon; Or, What A Difference A Few Months Make
Dash of Insight
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How to Choose an ETF
The recent trend toward ETF investments has heightened the importance of making wise decisions. The “lazy” portfolios use broad-based ETFs which drag inferior and over-valued stocks into your account. Why not attempt to be more selective? Almost everyone has opinions about favorite ETFs, often highlighting some as cheaper than others. The approach they employ to valuation can also be used to find the most attractive stocks within a sector....
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How to Choose an ETF
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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Working, and Will It Persist?
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Stock Exchange: Have You Ever Tried To Design A Trading System?
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Considering Whether to Take Profits and Pay taxes? Here’s How to Decide
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Individual Investors Face a Pivotal Decision?
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Silver Target Review – WTWA 06/02/18
Curious Cat
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
Factfulness by Hans Roling (of TED talks and Gapminder charts fame) is an exceptionally good book. It provides great insight into how to think more effectively and how to understand the reality of the world we live in (versus the large distortions so common in most people’s vision of the world). You can take a quick quiz to see how well you understand the world today. Today the people living in rich countries around the North Atlantic, who...
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
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“Explaining” Random Variation
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2017
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Nov 2017
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Improvements to the USA Tax Policy
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Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 2000 to 2016
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Q&A with Eileen Appelbaum on the Recently Released Data from the Contingent Worker Survey
CEPR Co-Director Eileen Appelbaum took part in a recent panel discussion on the Future of Work. This is a Q&A prepared for the event. What are the most important takeaways from the new CWS data? In February 2005, 7.4 percent of workers were independent contractors. In the new CWS data for 2017, this has decreased ...
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The Social Security Trustees Agree: The Program is Well-Funded
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CEO Pay: Still Not Related to Performance
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Core and Overall CPI Both Rise 0.2 Percent in May
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Will Schumer and Senate Dems Embrace or Reject the Revolving Door?
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What Can We Learn about Contingent and Alternative Work?
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It Keeps Getting Harder to Find People with the Necessary Skills for Restaurant Work
Economic Populist
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
Construction spending fell 1.7% in March, after construction spending for both January and February were revised much higher. The Census Bureau's report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month's seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,284.7 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 1.7 percent (±0.8%) below the revised annualized February estimate of $1,306.4 billion, but...
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
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OPEC oil output at a 6 month low; global oil output at a 12 month high
Naked Capitalism
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Alongside Rising Top Incomes, the Level of Living of America’s Poorest Has Fallen
By Martin Ravallion, Edmond D. Villani Chair of Economics, Georgetown University; Dean Jolliffe, Lead Economist, Development Economics Data Group, World Bank; and Juan Margitic, Ph.D. candidate in Economics, Georgetown University. Originally published at VoxEU When the poorest gain, the lower bound, or ‘floor’, of the distribution of living standards rises. Using microdata spanning the last 30 years, this column argues that the floor in the US...
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Links 6/21/18
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Mexican Business Elite, US Government, Brace for Likely Win by Leftist Obrador as Mexico’s President
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Don Quijones: How the ECB Helped Spain “Recover” Faster than Italy from the Crisis
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Bill Black: Kill the Hastert Rule – A Pedophile’s Indefensible Rule Harms America
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The World Cup: The Dismal Science and the Beautiful Game
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2:00PM Water Cooler 6/20/2018
Lance Roberts RIA
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Kass – Navigating The New Regime Of Volatility
There is no place for dogma and emotion (and sometimes even an intermediate term viewpoint) in developing a strategy to opportunistically trade over short term periods in the 2018 market The market’s structure (and dominance of passive and quant strategies/products) provides exceptional near term trading moments Yesterday was another example of the value that can be extracted from premarket and aftermarket trading (I am a ‘pajama trader’ and...
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How To Protect Your Senior Parents From Financial Risks
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Technically Speaking: The Drums Of “Trade” War
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Kass – Risk Happens Fast
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Inflation Or Deflation? And How to Cope With Both.
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The Myths Of Stocks For The Long Run – Part III
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Bulls Keep It Together – 06-15-18
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-April, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US economy. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural...
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued Increases in May at Slower Pace
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FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.1% in April
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Down, but Continued Expansion in June
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 3K from Last Week
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Q1 Household Net Worth: The “Real” Story
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The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Z.1 Update
The Barrel Blog
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It’s a steel cage fight for product exclusions in the underground tariff wars
Steel consumers and producers in the US are duking it out. The battle is mostly under the radar and in the back rooms and alleys surrounding the Trump administration’s chaotic trade policy. Tariff headlines tend to concentrate on the alienation of allies and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s “special place in hell.” However, aside from all the grappling amongst trading partners, day-to-day steel consumers are digging in to the US...
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Iraqi crude oil imports to USGC up, others fall: In the LOOP
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The great scrubber conundrum
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China hits back at Trump, but LNG stays untouched
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The curious case of China’s missing trade data
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Commoditization underpins LNG demand, supply and pricing innovations
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Have your say on the future of The Barrel
Eurostat News Releases
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The European economy since 2000
Download PDF
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Price levels varied by almost one to three across the EU Member States
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Production in construction up by 1.8% in euro area
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Wide variation of consumption per capita across EU Member States
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Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.1%
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €16.7 bn
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Annual inflation up to 1.9% in the euro area
Commodity Blog
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Prices for Brent Crude Fall amid OPEC Production Increase Speculations
Futures for Brent crude oil declined today amid speculations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will increase production. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed. World’s biggest oil consumers, including the United States, were calling for the OPEC to bolster output to prevent shortages. Saudi Arabia and Russia were in favor of increasing production, while such countries as Iran and Venezuela, which...
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Gold Slips Despite Weaker Dollar
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Natural Gas Futures Pare Impressive Gains After EIA Report
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Soybean Futures Add to Losses, Plunge to Nine-Year Low
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Oil Edges Higher As Market Waits for EIA Report
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Oil Prices Slip on OPEC and Tariff Threats
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Copper Adds to Losses as US-China Trade War Escalates
BEA
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State Quarterly Personal Income, 1st quarter 2018
State personal income increased 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis1 (table 1). Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 7.4 percent in Washington to 2.0 percent in Idaho. Increases...
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U.S. International Transactions, 1st quarter 2018 and annual update
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2018
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Personal Income and Outlays, April 2018
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2018 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2018 (preliminary estimate)
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Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2016
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2017 and annual 2017 (preliminary)
Humble student of the markets
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What June swoon?
Mid-week market update: Sell in May? June swoon? Not so far! As the SPX convincingly staged an upside breakout above the 2740 resistance level, the bull case is easy to make. We have seen fresh all-time highs this week from the following: NASDAQ Composite Russell 2000 small caps NYSE Advance-Decline Line NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line I probably forgot a few, but you get the idea. In addition, the metrics of risk appetite, such as the ratio of...
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2 contrarian trades that will make you uncomfortable
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Revealed: The market timers’ dirty little secret
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The hidden MACD message from the markets
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Offbeat Thursday and Friday forecasts
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Could a weak consumer stall the economy?
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Cue the fiscal and inflation fears
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again, everyone. Welcome back to the Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning into this episode which is number 16. Tiho, my friend, how are you, and what will we be covering today?Tiho Brkan: I’m very well. Regards from Europe. Happy to be doing episode number 16 with you, Jordan. Today, we’ll be covering the most interesting of all asset classes. The classical joke that I...
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12 Charts Covering Current Stock Market Indecision
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Why You Should Consider Bali Real Estate & Booming Tourism
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What’s Next for Global Equities & REITs
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Things You Need to Know About Singapore Before Investing
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How To Handle This Weeks Mini Stock Market Crash
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Here Is What You Can Expect From Bonds In 2018
Global Macro Monitor
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Swan Lake – June 21
The euro periphery was rocked today by the rise to power of two populist Eurosceptic political powers, which has called into question the country’s membership in the euro. Italian 10-year sovereign spreads out 22 bps. Euro banks weaker EM EM relatively stable as Argentina solidifies IMF agreement. Brazil 10-year yield up another 25 bps, and 244 since April 30. SIFIs An index of the Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions...
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Eurozone Finance Ministers Weigh Up Debt Relief
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Swan Lake – June 20
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Greece’s economy at a turning point?
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Swan Lake – June 19
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QOTD: North Korea Deal Or China Deal?
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Kim Jong-un visits China following historic Trump summit
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Trade War Noise vs Earnings Signal
President Donald Trump’s protectionist saber-rattling has led to multi-front trade skirmishes with America’s major trading partners. Now Trump threatens to up the tit-for-tat ante with an incremental 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports. He did so Monday evening. The Chinese immediately said that they would retaliate in kind. This may all be Trump’s art of the deal-making. However, bullying the Chinese in public rather than...
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Red Hot SmallCaps
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US Economy: Pedal to the Metal
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Italy’s Swan Dive
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Earnings Signal Remains Bullish for Stocks
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Widely Followed Strategist and Economist Ed Yardeni Shares His Unconvent…
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What Are They Smoking?