Macro
Zerohedge
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Where Are Plastic Bags Banned Around The World?
Submitted by Priceonomics The average plastic bag you pick up at the grocery store, or carry your takeout in, has a lifespan of about 12 minutes. When discarded, they clog sewage and storm drains, entangle and kill an estimated 100,000 marine mammals every year, and degenerate into toxic microplastics that fester in our oceans and ...
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Over 300 Catholic Pedos Preyed Upon 1,000+ Children Amid “Systematic” Coverup: Report
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5 Times The US Clearly Meddled In Foreign Elections Since 2005
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“Furious” Swedish PM Rages At Violent Gang Rampage: “What The Hell Are You Doing?”
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A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides In Plain Sight
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TSA Breaks Silence, Defends Secretive Domestic Surveillance Program
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These People Lost One-Third Of Their Savings In A Single Week (Not In Crypto)
The Capital Spectator
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Early Estimates See Slower-But-Still-Strong Growth For US Q3 GDP
The first official third-quarter report on US GDP is more than two months away, but the preliminary nowcasts point to a softer-but-still-solid gain, based on several estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The question is whether escalating trade-war tension and Turkey’s financial crisis that’s roiling emerging markets will take a bite out of the rosy projections for the US? For the moment, several widely followed estimates for GDP...
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Macro Briefing: 14 August 2018
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Widespread Selling Weighed On Major Asset Classes Last Week
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Macro Briefing: 13 August 2018
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Book Bits | 11 August 2018
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Are Low Equity Sector Correlations A Warning Sign For Stocks?
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Macro Briefing: 10 August 2018
Marc Chandler
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Cool Video: CNBC Discussion on Turkey
I had the opportunity to join Professor Hanke to discuss the crisis in Turkey. The professor sketched out his view expressed in a recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that Turkey is best served by adopting a currency board, anchoring the lira to hard currency, like the euro or dollar, or gold. I do not see Turkey's problem being essentially a currency crisis, but a broader crisis of confidence. It stems not just poor...
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Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline
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Brief Respite but Little Relief
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Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro
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Why Tariffs will Not Reduce the US Trade Deficit
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Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
Mish’s Global Economic
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Tesla Bumpers Fall Off in Rain, Musk Lies, Lawsuits, and Other Things
Elon Musk’s comments about taking Tesla private are threatening to increase the electric-car maker’s borrowing costs, presenting a fresh challenge for a company already dealing with a dwindling cash pile. In a blog post Monday, Mr. Musk said that “most of the capital required for going private would be funded by equity rather than debt” and estimated that two-thirds of shares owned by current investors would remain with the company. Tesla...
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Household Income and Spending Projections vs Current and Projected CPI
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Crypto Bubble Unwind Images: Fast in Altcoins, Slower in Bitcoin
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Lira Dives 10% at Open, Turkish Banks Now Insolvent: Get Your Money Out Now!
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Washout: Big and Small Specs Barely Net Positive on Gold as Shorts Pile On
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Weekend Tweets: Keynesian Time Bombs, Emerging Markets, Turkey, Black Swans
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58% of Australians Worry About Their Mortgage, 42% Worry About Becoming Homeless
BK Asset Management
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BK Asset Management 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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Will Turkey’s Lira Crisis Send EURO on Downward Spiral?
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USDTRY Blows Up the World
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How Much Further Will NZD and GBP Fall?
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Kiwi Gets Rocked, Rest of FX Stands Still
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Behind the Yen’s Strength & RBNZ – What to Expect
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Cable Flirts with 1.2900
Calculated Risk
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Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, NY Fed Mfg
Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for July will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in retail sales. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.2% on a YoY basis in June.• At 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of...
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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3 Percent YoY in July, Inventory up 2% YoY
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NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter"
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Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
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Tuesday: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
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Long Beach Port Traffic "Dips" in July
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Goldman: "Price pressures seem to be everywhere except the inflation statistics"
Epsilon Theory
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Things Fall Apart (pt. 1)
Little Carmine: So, the reason I’m here you could probably guess. Tony Soprano: What happened at Coco’s restaurant. Little Carmine: This alteration you had with him. You’re at the precipice, Tony, of an enormous crossroad. ― The Sopranos, “The Second Coming” (2007) Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed...
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It Was You, Charley
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Letter From a Birmingham Museum
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Mental Toughness!
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Volatility
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The Acrobat and the Fly
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Correlation
Charles Hugh Smith
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Technocrats Rule: Democracy Is OK as Long as the People Rubberstamp Our Leadership
Technocrats rule the world, East and West alike. We are in a very peculiar ideological and political place in which Democracy (oh sainted Democracy) is a very good thing, unless the voters reject the technocrat class's leadership. Then the velvet gloves come off. From the perspective of the elites and their technocrat apparatchiks, elections have only one purpose: to rubberstamp their leadership. As a general rule, this is easily managed by...
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The Grand Irony of RussiaGate: The U.S. Becomes More Like the U.S.S.R. Every Day
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The Fantasy of “Balanced Returns” Funding Retirement
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We’ll Pay All Those Future Obligations by Impoverishing Everyone (How to Destroy Our Currency In One Easy Lesson)
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Here’s Why Rip-Roaring Inflation Is Inevitable
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The 21st Century Misery Index: Labor’s Share of the Economy and Real-World Inflation
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Here’s What We’ve Lost in the Past Decade
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Can the Fed successfully steer between Scylla and Charybdis? An update
- by New Deal democrat As I type this, the spread between 2 year and 10 year Treasuries is back to 0.25%, the level below which I switch my rating on the yield curve from positive to neutral. Already the spread is tight enough that, even if it never inverts, it suggests a slowdown in the next 6-12 months, as happened in 1984 and 1995 in the graph below of real YoY GDP growth and the Fed funds rate: One aspect of what is happening...
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Gimme Shelter: the rental affordability crisis has worsened
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Weekly Indicators for August 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha
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Real wages decline YoY, while real aggregate payrolls grow
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Four measures of wages all show renewed stagnation
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June 2018 JOLTS report evidence of both excellent jobs market and taboo against raising wages
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Gimme credit for Q2 2018: conditions looser, demand improves, but acaution flag for housing
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Macroeconomic Lessons from the Past Decade
Below the fold is a draft of a chapter I’m contributing to an edited volume on aggregate demand and employment. My chapter is supposed to cover macroeconomic policy and employment in the US, with other chapters covering other countries and regions. The chapter is mostly based on material I’ve pulished elsewhere, mainly my Roosevelt papers “What Recovery?” and “A New Direction for the Federal Reserve.” My goal was something that summarized the...
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“Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change”
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Guns and Ice Cream
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Decarbonization: A Keynesian View
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The Problem with Students Is They Work Too Hard
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The King’s Two Bodies
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Short-Termism, Climate Edition
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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9/8/18: BRIC PMIs trace Global economy’s slowdown at the start of 3Q
Recent PMIs for BRIC show a weaker start to 3Q 2018, in line with moderating growth outlook for the global economy: In summary, Composite PMIs for July show Russia, China and Brazil underperforming global composite index, with India being the only BRIC economy trending in line with the global economy. Much of this dynamic was down to Manufacturing sector, with Services supporting global economy to the upside: The biggest downside momentum...
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4/8/18: Collapsed Labor Share of Economy 1947-2016
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2/8/18: M&A Activity: More Concentration Risk Signals
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2/8/18: Shares Buybacks: the Evil Symptoms of an Ever More Evil Disease
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1/8/18: Household Debt and the Cycle
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1/8/18: Dynamic patterns in BTCUSD pricing: is there a new down cycle afoot?
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31/7/18: 65 years of profligacy and few more yet to come: U.S. Government Deficits
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Pure Corruption
In December 1999, Princeton Professor Ben S. Bernanke wrote a relatively obscure paper largely denouncing the Bank of Japan’s shyness. Japan’s economy had by then been mired in its first Lost Decade, one which at that moment not everyone was sure should have been lost. It was fashionable at the time to pile on the BoJ. Dr. Bernanke argued for extreme aggressiveness, truly radical experimentation. Big problems require equally big solutions....
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Ugly China’s American Mirror
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Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High
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Unwelcome August
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Welcome To Our New Design
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The Smoke Thickens In China
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August 9, 2018; Eurodollar University in Articles
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Don’t Get Framed!
The market remains in a narrow trading range, near the record highs. There have been some relatively minor leadership changes. This reflects not investor complacency, but intense disagreement about how to interpret data and events. Each viewpoint has a history, a philosophy, and problem something to sell! The power to set the agenda and to frame the issues is more important than most understand. The punditry will not be explaining this in the...
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Stock Exchange: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?
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Stock Exchange: What Is Your Typical Timeframe?
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Stock Exchange: How Does Earnings Season Impact Your Trades?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Delicate (and Temporary) Balance
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Stock Exchange: What Do Winning Traders Have In Common?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Anything Goes!
Curious Cat
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
Factfulness by Hans Roling (of TED talks and Gapminder charts fame) is an exceptionally good book. It provides great insight into how to think more effectively and how to understand the reality of the world we live in (versus the large distortions so common in most people’s vision of the world). You can take a quick quiz to see how well you understand the world today. Today the people living in rich countries around the North Atlantic, who...
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
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“Explaining” Random Variation
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2017
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Nov 2017
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Improvements to the USA Tax Policy
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Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 2000 to 2016
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Social Security as a Share of Retirement Income
For millions of retirees, Social Security is more than just a part of their retirement income ― in many cases it is the vast majority of their retirement income. Social Security benefits account for half of family income for roughly 50 percent of those over the age of 65. The percentage of families in which ...
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Stopping the Revolving Door in DC
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, August 7, 2018
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Unemployment Rate for Workers Without High School Degrees Hits Record Low
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25 Years After FMLA Implementation, It’s Time to Aim Higher
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Can a Tight Labor Market Pull Young People Back to Full-time Work?
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Strong GDP Growth Driven by Consumption
Economic Populist
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history. Also with this benchmark revision, the reference year...
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/14/2018
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Trade “A new study shows Trump’s trade war probably won’t achieve one of its biggest goals” [Business Insider] (original study). “A new report from the New York Federal Reserve’s Liberty Street Economics blog shows that Trump is unlikely to get the targeted reduction using his favorite trade tool: tariffs. According to the New York Fed economists, while the new duties on goods coming into the US will lead to a...
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Plastics: Don’t Microwave, or Place in the Dishwasher
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Links 8/14/18
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Emerging Markets Swoon as Turkey Wobbles
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Medicaid Officials Target Home Health Aides’ Union Dues
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Where in the World Is It Easiest to Get Rich?
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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/13/2018
Lance Roberts RIA
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Technically Speaking: “It Can Only Go Up From Here”
This past weekend, I discussed the correction last Friday as concerns over “Turkey Turmoil” grabbed headlines. “The market did indeed attempt to test all-time highs this past week, but, as noted, the overbought condition provided the fuel for a correction given the right catalyst. That catalyst appeared on Friday as the Lira plunged and Turkey edged closer to an economic crisis.” However, as of this morning, all seems to have been quickly...
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Why Turkey’s Bubble Economy Is About To Pop
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The Myths Of Stocks For The Long Run – Part XI
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Have Tariffs Worked as Planned? – Part 2
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The Run Ends At The Highs – 08-10-18
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Weekend Reading: Why We Don’t Talk Anymore
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The Name Game: Advisor Or Adviser
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Household Debt And Credit Report: Up by $82B in Q2
The latest household debt for Q2 2018 was up 0.6% from Q1 and currently at $13.29T and at its peak. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release: NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $82 billion (0.6%) to $13.29 trillion in the second quarter of 2018. It was the 16th consecutive...
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NFIB Small Business Survey: “Small Business Optimism Index Nears Survey High in July”
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down a Penny
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World Markets Update
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A Long-Term Look at Inflation
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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components
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Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: July 2018 Update
The Barrel Blog
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In the LOOP: Arab Light imports rebound slightly as Saudi Arabia reports cuts
Imports of Arab Light from Saudi Arabia into the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port are rebounding slowly, even as Saudi Arabia continues to report oil production cuts. So far in August, Morgan City, Louisiana, the delivery point for LOOP, has taken three cargoes, totaling 1.95 million barrels, of Arab Light, according to the latest S&P Global Platts Analytics and US Customs data. That is compared with no cargoes of Arab Light received at LOOP in...
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Insight: Kaspersky Lab contest reveals ease of hacking an oil refinery
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Mexico could take multiple paths toward energy self-sufficiency: Fuel for Thought
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Insight: Oil companies scramble to stay ahead of cybersecurity threats
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Will Myanmar become a conduit for Iranian crude into China?
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EU forges ahead with steel sector M&A – but it won’t solve overcapacity
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Insight: Market watchers fret about future of US wholesale power markets
Eurostat News Releases
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Industrial production down by 0.7% in euro area
Download PDF
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GDP up by 0.4% in both euro area and EU28
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.3% in euro area
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Industrial producer prices up by 0.4% in both euro area and EU28
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Euro area annual inflation up to 2.1%
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Euro area unemployment at 8.3%
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GDP up by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% the EU28
Commodity Blog
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Clashing Fundamentals Keep Crude Oil from Rebounding
Futures for crude oil traded almost flat today amid clashing fundamentals, though just recently they have went down. On the positive side, the market sentiment improved after fears about the Turkish financial crisis eased, allowing the stock market to recover. Crude followed stocks, halting its fear-induced decline. Additional positive factor for the commodity were the reports about the oil production cut by Saudi Arabia. Yet the Turkish...
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Copper Slides 1% on Disappointing Chinese Economic Data
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Crude Oil Declines amid Turkish Crisis Concerns, Other Negative Fundamentals
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Gold Plunges to 17-Month Low As Dollar Boosted by Turkish Crisis
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Commodities Technical Analysis, August 13th — August 17th
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Gold Takes Hit on Strong Greenback, Unable to Benefit From Turkish Crash
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Crude Oil Rallies on US Sanctions Against Iran, Still Heads to Weekly Losses
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2018
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $46.3 billion in June, up $3.2 billion from $43.2 billion in May, revised. Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1) June exports were $213.8 billion, $1.5 billion less than May exports. June imports were $260.2 billion, $1.6 billion more than May imports. The June increase in the goods and services deficit...
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Personal Income and Outlays, June 2018
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Foreign Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2017
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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (advance estimate), and comprehensive update
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1st quarter 2018
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New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2017
Humble student of the markets
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The universe is unfolding as it should
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The […]To access this content, you must be a subscriber.
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The inevitability of rising trade tensions under a GOP president
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Charted: How worried should you be about a trade war?
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How the equity bulls and bears may both be right
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Upside breakout, FOMO rally next?
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Tariffs to the left, tariffs to the right…Contrarians buy China!
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The surprising conclusion from sector leadership analysis
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again, everyone. Welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Today, this is episode number 19 and it’s part two of a two-part episode, where Tiho is discussing where you should invest your money today or where you should be looking to invest as far as which markets could generate the best returns over the long-term future. Tiho, it’s great to have you back. It’s great to be doing...
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
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12 Charts Covering Current Stock Market Indecision
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Why You Should Consider Bali Real Estate & Booming Tourism
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What’s Next for Global Equities & REITs
Global Macro Monitor
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Watch Turkey
Traveling and out of touch. We are watching how the international community, especially the U.S, responds to Turkey’s economic crisis. Do U.S policy makers go the traditional route of trying to stabilize the situation through IMF, etc., or is it politics uber alles? Does the Trump administration instead step on Turkey’s throat? We may be witnessing the end of globalization. Advertisements
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It’s August
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China’s Raises “The Other Nuclear Option”
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China’s FX Reserves Increase
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Commodity Correlation
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Beijing police shut down P2P lending demonstration
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Investors Beware Of “XX-Rated” Result In Ohio’s 12th
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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US Economy Slowing? Not So Fast!
Real GDP rose 4.1% (saar) during Q2 (Fig. 1). That was good, but not surprisingly good. Actually, given that taxes were cut at the end of last year, it’s surprising that it wasn’t better. In fact, GDP growth was temporarily boosted by exports as US exporters scrambled to beat Trump’s tariffs. Exports of goods and services contributed 1.12 percentage points to Q2’s real GDP growth, the most since Q4-2013 (Fig. 2). I like to look at the y/y...
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Tug of War In the Bond Market
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Weekly Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Remains Bullish, So Far
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CFA Institute’s Review of My Book, Predicting the Markets
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Donald Trump vs Blanche DuBois
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Predicting the Markets
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Is the Yield Curve Bearish for Stocks?