Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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V or L In The Mechanics of PMI’s
The thing about PMI’s is they are all second derivative. The focus on fifty is misleading, beginning with the idea that these things can ever be so precise as to clearly delineate the exact moment between contraction and growth. When the indices are high, say like 60 or better, that simply means many more respondents are claiming to see increasing levels of activity (or prices, whatever). No word on how much or how fast the increases. When it...
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Forget the PMI’s, Understand Xi Jinping’s Inner Mongolian
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 11: The Terrifying V
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We Shouldn’t Have To Be Busting The Flood Myth For A Second Time, And Now We’re Really Going To Pay Prices
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The Other Side
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What Flood?
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The *Optimists* Have Some Terrible News For the ‘V’
BEA
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Personal Income and Outlays, April 2020
Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $2.13 trillion (12.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1.89 trillion (13.6 percent). Real DPI increased 13.4 percent in April and Real PCE decreased 13.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index decreased 0.5...
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)
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Real Personal Income by State and Metropolitan Area, 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2020
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Personal Income and Outlays, March 2020
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th Quarter and Year 2019 (Preliminary)
BK Asset Management
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AUD Climbs to 3 Month Highs Ahead of RBA – What to Expect
AUD Climbs to 3 Month Highs Ahead of RBA – What to Expect Daily FX Market Roundup June 1, 2020 The first day of June kicked off with broad based US dollar weakness. The greenback traded lower against all of the major currencies as equities moved higher. Americans are growing increasingly nervous about the protests in US cities but investors have been unfazed. We can’t see this optimism lasting as it is almost certain that the protests will...
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Can The Risk Rally Continue?
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No Bombshells from Trump, FX Rally in Relief
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Risk-off but Euro Rises – Why?
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FX: Risk on Trades Could Lose Steam
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Euro Cracks 1.10 – Fade or Trade?
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EU Proposes Mutual Debt; Risk Soars – EURUSD Breakout?
Bull Markets
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Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Our portfolio
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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June 1 COVID-19 Test Results: Progress on Percent Positive
The US is now conducting around 400,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US might need to double the number of tests per day again.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day .There were 403,791 test...
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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 8.46%" of Portfolio Volume
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Zillow Case-Shiller April Forecast: Still Showing Increasing YoY Price Gains
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Construction Spending Decreased in April
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ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 43.1 in May
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Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
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Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
CEPR Blog
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Republican Attacks on State and Local Government Are Yet Another Assault on Black People
Democrats in Congress have been pushing for a large amount of assistance for state and local governments in the next pandemic aid package. The finances of these governments have been devastated by the pandemic, with all of them seeing massive shortfalls in revenue due to the shutdowns and the weak economy that is projected for the months ahead. At the same time, they have had enormous demands for public services as a result of the pandemic,...
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The UN’s Anti-Poverty Proposal for Latin America: A “Basic Emergency Income”
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Trump Veto Student Loan Debt Relief Measure Will Save Government 0.02 Percent of Projected Spending
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An Impending Crisis: COVID-19 in Haiti, Ongoing Instability, and the Dangers of Continued U.S. Deportations
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We Can’t Trust the IMF and World Bank to Lead the COVID-19 Recovery
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The Impact of the Pandemic on Young People’s Employment and Economic Security
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Washington Post Tells Readers About Trump’s “Existential” Threat to China
Charles Hugh Smith
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We’re Living the Founding Fathers’ Nightmare: America Is Corrupt to the Core
Our ruling elites, devoid of leadership, are little more than the scum of self-interested, greedy grifters who rose to the top of America's foul-smelling stew of corruption. The Founding Fathers were wary of institutional threats to liberty and the citizenry's sovereignty, which included centralized concentrations of power (monarchy, central banks, federal agencies, etc.) and the tyranny of corruption unleashed by small-minded,...
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This Is How Systems Collapse
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First the Deflationary Deluge of Assets Crashing, Then the Tsunami of Inflation
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Social Media’s Plantation of the Mind
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Re-Opening the Economy Won’t Fix What’s Broken
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An Economy That Cannot Allow Stocks to Decline Is Too Fragile To Survive
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TINA’s Orgy: Anything Goes, Winners Take All
Commodity Blog
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Commodities Technical Analysis, May 25th — May 29th
The technical analysis, that includes the indicator data and major pivot points for WTI Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas in continuous charts as of May 24th, 2020: Crude Oil Indicators Moving Averages RSI Parabolic SAR CCI Long Neutral Long Neutral Floor pivot points 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 26.82 28.61 31.03 32.82 35.24 37.03 39.45 Woodie’s pivot points 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st...
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Gold Rises on US-China Tensions, Posts Weekly Loss
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Bitcoin Dips Below $9,000 and Drags Market Down with It
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Natural Gas Slumps as US Supplies Climb, Rig Count Dips
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Wheat Tops One-Week High of $5 Despite Global Supply Glut
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Soybeans Retreat From One-Week High Despite Bullish Developments
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Gold Plunges 1% on Stock Market Rally, COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate
South China Morning Post
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Donald Trump’s ‘G11’ plan heightens speculation over efforts to build new anti-China alliance
[unable to retrieve full-text content]US President Donald Trump plans to invite Australia, India, South Korea and Russia to join an upcoming Group of Seven meeting, in a move that has stoked speculation that he is trying to form a bloc to contain China.Trump did not say whether he wanted the G7 to become the G11 permanently , but said on Saturday that he wanted to invite the four to attend the summit and said he felt the group was “very...
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Is Beijing preparing to decouple from the US?
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China’s decision to drop economic growth target is a blessing in disguise
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China’s manufacturing recovery stuttered in May, but PMI positive for third month in a row
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Trump’s plan to strip Hong Kong of its special status is light on detail, but economists still fear for city’s future
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Spooked by coronavirus, political tension, seven hotels in Shanghai, and Hong Kong likely to delay scheduled opening dates
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China eyes ‘diversified’ relations as US becomes increasingly hostile, Beijing economic adviser says
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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1/6/20: COVID19 and European Banking
McKinsey research note on European banks' potential losses due to COVID19 is quite on the money: With more than 1/3rd of European executives expecting "a muted recovery that would lead to sharp drops in banks’ revenue, a squeeze on their capital, and a hit on return on equity", European banks can expect revenues to drop by 40 percent plus, and ROE drop 11 percentage points in 2021.And the problems are strategic. COVID19 is actually...
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1/6/20: U.S. political culture and mass protests: “Russia-gate” Season X, Episode Z
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1/6/20: 3 months of COVID19 impact: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs
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31/5/20: S&P500 Shares Buybacks: Retained Earnings and Risk Hedging
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30/5/20: The Cost of Not Shutting Down
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29/5/20: COVID19: US vs EU27 comparatives
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29/5/20: COVID19: Worldwide Cases and Deaths
Curious Cat
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Huge Growth in USA Corporate Debt from 2005 to 2020
There are many problems with the extremely low interest rates available in decade since the too-big-to-fail financial crisis. The interest rates seem to me to be artificially sustained by massive central bank actions for 12 years now. Extraordinarily low rates encourage businesses to borrow money, after all how hard is it to invest in something that will return the business more than a few percent a year (that they can borrow at). Along...
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Retirement Portfolio Allocation for 2020
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Tencent Gaming
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Are We There Yet?
The economic calendar is a big one, featuring several employment reports, including the official version from the BLS. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys provide an early look at economic changes. Despite the significance of the data, most are regarding it as old news. There is widespread willingness to look beyond the chasm of this recession and ask what it will be like on the other side. You can almost hear the chorus of...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Search for Balance in the Great Reopening
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Weighing the Week Ahead: There are No Shortcuts!
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Roadblocks to Recovery
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Close Reading: Will the Market “Tumble Back to its Coronavirus Lows in March?”
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Test
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Ready for Some High-Stakes Gambling?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Crestmont Market Valuation Update: May 2020
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Quick take: Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 115% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
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A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
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CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
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Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator
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ISM Manufacturing Index: Up 1.6 in May
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Markit Manufacturing: “Ongoing COVID-19 impact drags output down further in May”
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Moving Averages May Update: Market Up 4.5%
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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US Declaration of (Cold) War
Coauthored with Jackie Doherty, the senior contributing editor at Yardeni Research, Inc. The major US equity market indexes continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing back above the 25,000 marker on Wednesday, fueled by the slow reopening of the US economy in the wake of the COVID-19 shutdown. The S&P 500 is now up 35.7% from its March 23 low and is down only 10.3% from its February 19 high (Fig. 1). Investor...
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Stock Market Keeping Score in the Three-Front War Against the Virus
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Fed Eats Buffett’s Lunch
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The Twilight Zone: Where Is Everybody?
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Dr. Ed's Blog 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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Fed Trying To Contain Zombie Apocalypse It Created
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From Reach for Yield to Mad Dash for Cash to Rebalancing into Stocks
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Self Assured Destruction
Epsilon Theory PDF Download (paid subscription required): Self Assured Destruction In the 1960s, our Cold War strategy evolved into Mutual Assured Destruction, a dangerous but stable relationship with the Soviet Union. In 2020, our Covid-19 War strategy devolved into Self Assured Destruction, a dangerous and utterly unstable relationship with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. As the story goes, a few weeks after JFK was...
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The PPP Narrative for Asset Managers
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The Hertz Story Isn’t What You Think
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A New Gilded Age
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Children of Men
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The End of the Beginning
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No Free Lunches
Eurostat News Releases
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Euro area annual inflation down to 0.1%
Download PDF
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Annual inflation down to 0.3% in the euro area
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China, US and EU are the largest economies in the world
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Production in construction down by 14.1% in euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €28.2 bn
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GDP down by 3.8% and employment down by 0.2% in the euro area
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Industrial production down by 11.3% in euro area
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2020
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 28-29, 2020. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15, 2020
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Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy
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Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10-11, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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America’s Reality Show Gets Real: The Moment I Knew America Was In Trouble
Summary The U.S. stock market is the most overvalued in history using our valuation metric of stock market capitalization-to-GDP The U.S. has failed to address four major issues, which have now passed their tipping points and has destabilized the American Street The murder and lynching of George Floyd was the spark that tipped the nation over into instability Stability is unlikely to return until the nation’s political leaders address the...
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Microsoft’s New Market Narrative
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Time To Fear The American Street
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SOTD: Strange Days Indeed
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Cue The Economic Recovery
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Steph Curry Is Priceless
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One Of Our Best Trades Ever – Mike Trout
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Coronavirus dashboard for May 31: comparing US States and regions with European countries
- by New Deal democratAmong all countries in the world, Sweden has the worst death rate from coronavirus: 5.9 per million per day over the past week. But, even with massive declines from their peaks, most of the States in the US’s eastern megalopolis are worse. To begin, here’s Kevin Drum’s dashboard of major European countries, plus Canada, as of May 27: He doesn’t show it, but since Spain had the worst outbreak among major Western...
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Weekly Indicators for May 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha
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April personal income and spending: considering the extreme circumstances, a good report
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Lawrence Summers discovers bargaining power
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Initial and continuing jobless claims: good “less worse” news
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Coronavirus, the economy, and the election: the jury is still out on all three
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Coronavirus dashboard: emphasis on testing
Humble student of the markets
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Earnings Monitor: Reality bites
Now that we are slightly over halfway through Q1 earnings season, it would be useful to see what we have learned, and how market expectations have developed through this pandemic period. Let’s begin with the big picture. FactSet reported that the bottom-up consensus forward 12-month estimate fell -1.9% last week, and -18.3% since downgrades began seven weeks ago. I have been monitoring the evolution of forward 12-month EPS for several years,...
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Buy the dip, or sell the rip?
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The recovery scenario
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Looking through the FOMC meeting noise
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Do earnings matter anymore?
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Factor review: Narrow leadership and its implications
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Why this volatility isn’t unprecedented
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Marx on the Corporation
(I wrote this post back in 2015, and for some reason never posted it. The inspiration was a column by Matt Levine, where he wondered what Marx would think of the modern corporation.) Let’s begin at the beginning. Capital, for Marx, is not a thing, it’s a social relation, a way of organizing human activity. Or from another point of view, it’s a process. It’s the conversion of a sum of money into a mass of commodities, which are transformed...
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Announcement: Money and Things
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Posts in Three Lines, Coronavirus Edition
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Endless austerity, state and local edition
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Daily News Op-Ed: Why Is Governor Cuomo Still Trying to Cut Medicaid?
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Talk on the Economic Mobilization of World War II
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Tracking COVID-19
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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Riots Across America Are About More Than George Floyd
The death of George Floyd was both unjust and tragic. However, his death was the catalyst that lit a powder keg of dissension, which has simmered beneath the headlines for over a decade. While we focus on events that fill our media streams, it is worth remembering Oscar Grant, Trayvon Martin, Manuel Diez, Kimini Gray, and Michael Brown. These events, and many others throughout history, show civil unrest has deeper roots. Pew Research made a...
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Market Breaks Above 200-DMA. Is The Bull Back? 05-30-20
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#MacroView: CFNAI Economic Indicator Crashes Most On Record
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Shedlock: New Jobless Claims Top 2-Million For 10-Straight Weeks
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 6-01-2020
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 05-29-20
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Robertson: Investing For The End Game
Marc Chandler
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US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning
Overview: US stocks extended their gains ahead of the weekend after President Trump shied away from specific actions against China-Hong Kong, and today Hong Kong shares recovered smartly from last week's 3.6% slide. The Hang Seng rose 3.3% today, and the Shanghai Composite gained over 2%. All the markets in the region advanced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was up about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which would be the fifth gain in six...
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June Monthly
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Breakouts Need Confirmation
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June Starts with a Bang
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Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11
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Escalating Tensions, Calm Markets
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China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects
Mish’s Global Economic
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The Epitome of Rioting Irony and Ignorance in One Tweet
My how things change when it is your gated community that is being burnt down.Palmer deleted his Tweet but here is his "Burn that s**t down. Burn it all down." Tweet Archive.Comments Pour InA lot of people have been affected and lives lost, but we need to all remember... Chris Palmer can't get his Starbucks today.More Replies to PalmerAmazing IronyPalmer incites looters to burn things down just as long as they stay away from his...
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How Do Stimulus Checks Impact GDP Estimates?
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GDPNow Forecast is Negative 51.2 Percent
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Ugly America: I am Appalled by What’s Happening
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Protesters Attack CNN, Smash Cars in Atlanta and LA
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Why the Amazing Leap in Savings Rate to Record 33 Percent?
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Twitter Cites Trump for Glorifying Violence
Naked Capitalism
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Links 5/30/2020
Arizona Humane Society Removes 2 Pounds Of Matted Fur From Fluffer The Cat, She Gets Adopted 2 Days Later Bored Panda. This feline was a distant cousin of those sheep that go feral and grow so much wool that they look like mini-busses. Captain Cook and the Colonial Paradox Quillette (Chuck L) Climate change: ‘Stunning’ seafloor ridges record Antarctic retreat BBC (Kevin W) Trees are Getting Shorter and Younger Gizmodo (Kevin W) Eye-Catching...
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Riot or Resistance? How Media Frames Unrest in Minneapolis Will Shape Public’s View of Protest
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Why New Infrastructure Is a National Imperative
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2:00PM Water Cooler 5/29/2020
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COVID-19 in Mauritius and Other Tourist Paradises: A Progress Report
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Links 5/29/2020
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Death, Suicides, And The Pandemic Economy
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
US-China tensions have bubbled up again, and commodity markets could be caught up in the turmoil, not least LNG. Aviation activity and jet fuel are also in the mix this week, along with corn fundementals in North and South America, and UK solar power. 1. US LNG exporters face new test as China tensions resurface What’s happening? The US move to no longer recognize Hong Kong’s independence from mainland China could lead to new tariffs and...
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COVID-19 speeds up global manufacturing, steel production shift
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Consultation period helps clear air on implied duty-unpaid premium, explain difference from Midwest premium
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Oil is down but not out: signs of recovery as lockdowns ease
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US election and climate policy: Biden platform points to carbon price with broad coverage
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Low bunker fuel prices bittersweet for shipowners as global trade volumes fall
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Insight Conversation: Jim Rogers, chairman, Beeland Interests
The Big Picture
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PPP
I am past due to clear up some confusion and misinformation about our decision to participate in the Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP). This is simple and straightforward, unless you are committed to misunderstanding it. On March 27, the CARES Act was signed into law. Its purpose was to preserve jobs, to keep people getting paychecks during the COVID-19 lockdown. The PPP‘s mechanism for this is the Small Business Administration (SBA) lending...
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10 Monday AM Reads
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Mapping Police Violence
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Transcript: David Rosenberg
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10 Sunday Reads
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MiB: David “Rosie” Rosenberg
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10 Weekend Reads
The Capital Spectator
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Book Bits | 30 May 2020
● The Next Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy Tim HarfordSummary via publisher (Little, Brown) In Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, the revolutionary, acclaimed book, radio series and podcast, bestselling economist Tim Harford introduced us to a selection of fifty radical inventions that changed the world. Now, in this new book, Tim Harford once again brings us an array of remarkable, memorable, curious and often unexpected...
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Tech Stocks Offer A Rare Bright Spot For 2020 Sector Returns
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Macro Briefing | 29 May 2020
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US Stock Market Regains Lead As Top Global Performer For 2020
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Macro Briefing | 28 May 2020
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Fat Tails Everywhere? Profiling Extreme Returns: Part I
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Macro Briefing | 27 May 2020
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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California Faces “Financial Collapse” As It Moves To Allow Businesses To Walk Away From Commercial Leases
California Faces "Financial Collapse" As It Moves To Allow Businesses To Walk Away From Commercial Leases Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2020 - 21:54 One of the bedrocks of modern US capitalism - which is now mutating by the day if not hour as the Fed scrambles to preserve at any cost its the towering edifice after ...
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More Hedge Funds Move To Outsource Trading As COVID-19 Crisis Revives 2-Way Market Swings
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Crypto Analyst Releases Stock-To-Flow Model Indicator For Bitcoin Bull Run
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Auto Sales Plunge 33% In May, Set For Worst Year Since 2009
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“To Whom Will We Entrust The Truth Now That It No Longer Exists?”
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What ‘Academic’ Antifa Wants
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Watch: Hundreds Of Handcuffed Perps Lined Up Outside NYC Bookings