Macro
Zerohedge
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Recession Odds Soar To 70% In Two Years, According To JPMorgan
A lot can change in less than two months: back on October 18, when the initial market drop seemed like just another dip-buying opportunity, JPM predicted that the odds of a recession in 1 year were a modest 27.6%, rising to 60% if the forecast period is extended to two years. Well not anymore, because ...
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Ken Rogoff: Bitcoin & Betting On Dystopia
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Alleged Russian Honeypot Spy Changes Plea To Guilty
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Huawei CFO’s Lawyers Cite $12 Million Home, Cancer Complications As Conditions For Bail
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Nasdaq Plunges Into Red For 2018 – Worst Year In A Decade
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“It’s Make Or Break Day” For The S&P (& It Just Broke Key Support)
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Quant Who Predicted Last Week’s Carnage Now Sees Risk Of Explosive “Blast To The Upside”
The Capital Spectator
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Commodities And Bonds Rose Last Week As Stocks Tumbled
US and foreign stock markets fell sharply last week as broadly defined commodities and bonds gained ground, according to a set of exchange-traded products representing the major asset classes. Growing concern over several economic and political risk factors have been weighing on stocks and the week ahead appears set to start with a new round of volatility. US stock futures in early trading on Monday point to a lower opening today. “Another...
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Macro Briefing: 10 December 2018
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Book Bits | 8 December 2018
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Growth Rate For US Payrolls Continued To Slow In November
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Low Volatility Stocks Take The Lead In 2018’s US Factor Race
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Macro Briefing: 7 December 2018
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US Labor Department Payrolls Report: Trend Outlook (Nov. 2018)
Marc Chandler
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Cool Video: Bloomberg Economic Discussion
I joined Chris Wolfe from First Republic Wealth Management on the set of Bloomberg's Daybreak to discuss market developments and the outlook for the US economy. We generally agreed that while the economy is slowing it is doing so from unsustainably strong levels. We also are both highly convinced that the Fed will increase rates later this month, and anticipate two hikes next year. Investors, understandably with scar tissue from the Great...
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Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment
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Markets Looking for Terra Firma after Becoming Unhinged
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The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders
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A Couple More Events before Seeing the End of Difficult Week for Investors
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New Spanner in US-China Relations Weighs on Risk Appetites
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US Market Closure may be a Firebreak
Mish’s Global Economic
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Macron Attempts to Placate Yellow Vest Protesters With Free Money
The Wall Street Journal reports Macron Pledges Tax Cuts, Minimum Wage Hike to Placate Protests.In an address on national TV Monday, Mr. Macron broke a nearly two-week silence on the so-called yellow vest movement, named after protesters who wear reflective safety vests, or “gilets jaunes,” in taking to the streets in protest. Over the past two weekends those demonstrations have turned violent, resulting in rioting across the French capital and...
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May Delays Brexit Vote in Move to Get EU to Tweak Deal: Yield Curve On Fire
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EU Throws Theresa May a Poisoned Lifeline: Court Rules the UK Can Cancel Brexit!
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Eventually This Had to Happen: France Investigates Russia Over Yellow Vest Riots
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Japan’s Red Queen Race
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Hilarious Flashback Video: Obama Throws Support to Candidate Emmanuel Macron
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Nearly 2,000 Arrested as French Riots Escalate
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 7-8, 2018
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on November 7-8, 2018. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes...
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 25-26, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 31-August 1, 2018
BK Asset Management
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In FX – No Place to Hide
Market Drivers December 10, 2018 EU Reverses anti-dollar flows UK data misses across the board Nikkei -2.12% Dax -0.68% Oil $52/bbl Gold $1246/oz. Europe and Asia: GBP UK Trade -11.8B vs. -10.5B GBP UK MP -1.0% vs.0.0% GBP UK IP -0.6% vs. 0.1% North America: CAD Building Permits 8:30 A whipsaw session at the start of the week with majors first rallying against the greenback on falling US rates, only to reverse course by London open as dour...
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FX Risk Aversion Intensifies with NFPs
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US Dollar Hit by Convergence of Negative News
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Will US Data Kneecap the Dollar?
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The Strength of USD & Meltdown in CAD
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Can We Possibly Be Headed to for Hard Brexit?
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Dollar Hits 10 Day Lows
Calculated Risk
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"Mortgage rates at their lowest levels in several months"
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rate Rally May Be PausingFirst things first: the average mortgage lender improved modestly today, compared to last Friday's levels. This leaves mortgage rates at their lowest levels in several months. That's great news and indeed, the last few weeks have been the best few weeks we've seen in more than a year. That having been said, we're now reaching the stage where the strong move in...
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Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q3
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AAR: November Rail Carloads Down 0.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 2.5% YoY
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BLS: Job Openings increase to 7.1 Million in October
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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October
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Monday: Job Openings
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year, On Pace for Record Year
Epsilon Theory
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The ET Interviews: Banking the Unbankable
After interviewing Alex Gladstein of Human Rights Foundation last week and getting into ‘censorship resistant money’, this week I wanted to go deeper into the ‘on the ground reality’ of some of the most vulnerable people in the world: forcibly displaced populations. So, at the risk of ‘talking our own book’, I’m interviewing my colleague Lev Plaves, a Senior Investment Manager at Kiva, as he has about as deep and broad a knowledge of working...
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The Dog That Didn’t Bark
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The People are Revolting
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We’re Doing It Wrong
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Inside the Skinner Box
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The ET Interviews: Anti-Authoritarian Technology
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Pics or It Didn’t Happen
Charles Hugh Smith
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The Conflicting Forces of Modernism: Kafka and Kierkegaard
We seem to be heading into a confrontation between the two forces of Modernism: the primacy of the individual versus the increasing technological and economic might of the central state. In Kafka's Nightmare Emerges: China's "Social Credit Score" (May 7, 2018). I wrote about Kafka's vision of a bureaucratic nightmare emerging in China's "Social Credit Score." The idea here is the central state sets up a vast, pervasive...
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Are We in a Recession Already?
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The View from the Trenches of the Alternative Media
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Truth Is What We Hide, Self-Serving Cover Stories Are What We Sell
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America Needs a New National Strategy
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Bearish on Fake Fixes
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The Politics of Debt-Serfs and Tax Donkeys: Our Only Choice Is the Least Bad Option
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Scenes from the November Jobs Report
- by New Deal democrat Here are a few noteworthy highlights from Friday's employment report. 1. Temporary help continues positive. As I wrote a week ago, temporary employment (blue in the graphs below) leads overall employment (red). So it is good news that it continued to grow in November: Somewhat more ambiguously, the rate of growth has waned a little in the past few months. But is isn't really on a downward trajectory at...
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Weekly Indicators for December 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha
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November jobs report: another good report with some signs of deceleration
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Consumer spending looks like classic later cycle pattern
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A note about the financial markets
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Strong manufacturers new orders in November ISM report
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A one day bond inversion does not a recession make
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Strange Defeat
Anyone who found something useful or provoking in my Jacobin piece on the state of economics might also be interested in this 2013 article by me and Arjun Jayadev, “Strange Defeat: How Austerity Economics Lost All the Intellectual Battles and Still WOn the War.” It covers a good deal of the same ground, a bit more systematically but without the effort to find the usable stuff in mainstream macro that I made in the more recent piece. Perhaps...
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In Jacobin: A Demystifying Decade for Economics
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How to Read a Regression
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Now Playing Everywhere
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Acquisitions as Corporate Money Hose
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New Piece on MMT
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Lecture Notes for Research Methods
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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8/12/18: Back to the 1950s: Tracing Out 25 Years of the Credit Bubble
While the current cycle of declining interest rates has been running for at least 25 years, the most recent iteration of the period has been exceptionally benign. Since the end of the global financial crisis, Corporate and, to a greater extent Government, borrowing costs have run at the levels close to, or even below, those observed in the 1950s-1960s. Since 2002-2003, FFR, on average, has been below the risk premium on lending to the...
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8/12/18: Shares Buybacks Hit Diminishing Marginal Returns
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7/12/18: Seeking Alpha Market Outlook features a recent blogpost
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6/12/18: Are Younger Americans More Comfortable With a Multipolar World?
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6/12/18: When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe’s problem is European
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5/12/18: Bitcoin: Sell-off is a structural break to the downside of the already negative trend
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5/12/18: BRIC PMIs for November: A Moderate Pick Up in Growth
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Contours of Crunch
There are several points of confluence between financial markets and the real economy. Asset price volatility can produce negative effects on confidence, of course, forcing economic agents to reconsider their own business activities. More than that, in the gigantic bond market, in particular, a turn in pricing regimes is often accompanied by the dreaded credit crunch. That’s when it starts to get serious. In the summer of 2007, even before...
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Rising Risks India
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China Going Back To 2011
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More Extraordinary Still
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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try
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Monthly Macro Monitor – December 2018 (VIDEO)
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Payrolls Too; Inflation Hysteria Gives Way to Inversion Unease
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Ready for Your Holiday Shopping?
We have a normal week for news with the emphasis on inflation data and business optimism. In recent weeks data has had little bearing on stock price movement. In fact, the opposite has been the case. Whatever happens with stock and bond prices is selectively used to spin the data interpretation. There are many dire warnings of recession and a complete market collapse. They are hard for most to ignore, especially since these are the grist...
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Stock Exchange: More Unnerving Face-Rippers Ahead?
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China/US Trade – Finding a Signal Amidst the Noise
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Weighing the Week Ahead: So Much News, So Little Time
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Boost Your Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Yield
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Stock Exchange: Did The Market Just Bottom?
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The Official Bears Playbook
Curious Cat
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
When 2 year US government bonds yield more than the 10 year US government bonds a recession is likely to appear soon. This chart shows why this is seen as such a reliable predictor. The chart shows the 10 year yield minus the 2 year yield. So when the value falls below 0 that means the 2 year yield is higher. Each time that happened, since 1988, a recession has followed (the grey shaded areas in the chart). Do note that there were very...
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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The Impact of OPEC on Climate Change
It is accepted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a cartel that restrains oil production and keeps prices higher than they would otherwise be. Indeed, this is the premise behind the “OPEC Accountability Act of 2018” in the US Senate. This bill would address high and rising oil prices by trying ...
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, November 2018
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How Goldman Sachs Still Holds Sway at SEC
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Building An Agency Tracker to Monitor Government Appointments
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Want Transparent Government? Answer These Questions
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Jobs, Pensions Lost in Sears Bankruptcy, but Hedge Fund King Gets Paid
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, October 2018
Economic Populist
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history. Also with this benchmark revision, the reference year...
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
Naked Capitalism
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Senators Press for Expanded Probe of FEMA Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico Relief Efforts
By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Bernie Sanders, and Dick Durbin last week sent a letter to John Kelly, acting inspector general (IG) of the Department of Homeland Security, asking him to expand the ongoing investigation into the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) contracting in...
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Links 12/10/18
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Criticizing the “Free Trade Delusion”: Havana Charter’s Progressive Trade Vision Subverted
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Brexit: May’s Handbag
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Fight for Federal Right to Education Takes a New Turn
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As Global Climate Talks Proceed, Trump EPA Opts to Weaken Coal Emissions Standards
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Links 12/9/18
Lance Roberts RIA
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Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible
All of sudden….volatility. Well, that is what it seems like anyway after several years of a steady grind higher in the markets. However, despite the pickup in volatility, the breaks of previous bullish trends, and a reversal in Central Bank policy, it is still widely believed that bear markets have become a relic of the past. Now, I am not talking about a 20% correction type bear market. I am talking about a devastating, blood-letting,...
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REITs: Slightly Better Than Broad U.S. Market, But Still Not Cheap
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Stuck In The Middle (Range) With You 12-07-18
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Weekend Reading: Which Yield Curve Really Matters?
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Did The Market Miss Powell’s Real Message?
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Yes, Virginia…
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The Tale Of The Two Bond Kings
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Only one of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, December 10, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.39%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 1.34%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 6.79%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 21.85%.
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 3.7%
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Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades of Trends as of November
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The Ratio of Part-Time Employed: November 2018
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Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing
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The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Down 9% from All-Time High
The Barrel Blog
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Qatar’s OPEC exit could backfire on LNG superpower
Qatar’s reasons for exiting OPEC look muddled. The tiny Persian Gulf sheikhdom says it wants to concentrate on building on its position as the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of being a minor player in an oil cartel dominated by Saudi Arabia. Aside from saving on membership fees, leaving the group has few benefits and many risks. Politics had nothing to do with the decision, which came as a complete surprise to...
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Insight: Nigeria’s oil sector looks for sweet spot amid power struggles
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Insight: Politics, not economics, drives decision-making in European gas
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In the LOOP: LOOP Sour deliveries rebound in November from multi-month low
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Insight: Extreme volatility returns to NYMEX natural gas futures
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Insight: Brazil steel touts Bolsonaro despite controversy
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Carbon capture projects gaining traction: Fuel for Thought
Eurostat News Releases
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GDP and employment both up by 0.2% in the euro area
Download PDF
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Record number of air passengers carried at more than 1 billion in 2017
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.3% in euro area
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Industrial producer prices up by 0.8% in euro area
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Euro area unemployment at 8.1%
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Euro area annual inflation down to 2.0%
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Tax-to-GDP ratio up to 40.2% in EU
Commodity Blog
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Gold Hovers Around Five-Month High Amid Market Rout
Gold futures are down to kick off the trading week, but they are hovering around their best levels in five months. The yellow metal has been gaining some momentum this month as the market expects the Federal Reserve to not be as aggressive raising interest rates as originally anticipated. With the market-wide selloff, investors might pour even more into precious metals to close the year. February gold futures tumbled $2.80, or 0.22%,...
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Symmetrical Triangle on H4 Chart of Natural Gas
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Commodities Technical Analysis, December 10th — December 14th
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Natural Gas Surges as US Posts Steep Weekly Supply Drop
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Metals Fall amid Increasing US-China Tensions, Gold Stable
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Crude Oil Crashes as OPEC Doesn’t Finalize Production Cut Deal
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Wheat Slips 1% Despite Global Production Forecasts Sliding
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2018
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in October, up $0.9 billion from $54.6 billion in September, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $55.5 Billion +1.7%° Exports: $211.0 Billion -0.1%° Imports: $266.5 Billion +0.2%° Next release: January 8, 2019 (°) Statistical significance...
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Personal Income and Outlays, October 2018
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Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (second estimate): Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2018 (preliminary estimate)
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Local Area Personal Income, 2017
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 2nd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product for Guam, 2017
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Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2016
Humble student of the markets
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Is the Powell Put coming into play?
Is the Fed about to blink? There has been a growing chorus of analysts like Kevin Muir at The Macro Tourist who thinks so. It is clear to me the Federal Reserve was intent on raising rates until something broke, and that last week enough things “broke” that they finally blinked. What broke? Muir mentioned a number of possible triggers. First, there is the dire picture of global asset returns this year. He also cited: The collapse in oil...
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A 2015 or 2011 style hiccup, or something worse?
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Apple: The new Rorschach test
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A Thanksgiving Week sector review
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What is Mr. Market saying about Powell’s “global slowdown”?
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Time to position for a year-end rally?
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Assessing the odds of a US-China agreement
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
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The S&P Is In Doji City – Key Short-term Levels
What a Dragonfly Doji Indicates When it forms at the bottom of a downtrend, the dragonfly doji is considered a reliable indication of trend reversal. This is because the price hit a support level during the trading day, hinting that sellers no longer outnumber buyers in the market. If the security is considered to be oversold, which may require the assistance of additional technical indicators, a bull movement may follow in the days ahead....
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Deutsche Bank – Nein Schadenfreude
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Watching Gold
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Week In Review – December 7
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Best Christmas Ad Of The Season
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Sector ETF Performance – December 7
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Global Risk Monitor – December 7
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Less Inflation Gives Fed Room to Pause
The Fed made lots of headlines last week. Evidence mounted that following another likely rate hike at the FOMC meeting on December 18-19, the monetary policy committee might pause during the first half of next year to reevaluate the course of monetary policy. Not as widely noticed last week was that inflationary pressures may be ebbing, which would also argue for a pause. Consider the following: (1) PCED. While the labor market continues to...
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Analysts Still (Too) High on S&P 500 Earnings
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Fed’s R-Star Is A Black Hole
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Fed’s Restrictive Chatter Rattles Stocks
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Trump’s Poison Pills for China
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China’s Syndromes
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Bear Traps for Stocks?