Macro
Zerohedge
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Alibaba’s Jack Ma Cancels Promise For 1 Million US Jobs Amid US-China Trade Dispute
Alibaba founder and Chairman Jack Ma says that the Chinese retail giant won't follow through on a promise to create 1 million jobs in the United States due to the ongoing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing, according to CNBC. Ma made the promise during a high-profile January 2017 meeting with then-President-Elect Donald Trump. "The ...
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Here’s More Evidence That Wealthy Taxpayers Are Fleeing Connecticut
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Decoding Putin’s Response To Attack In Syria
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Chicago Set To Offer $350 Million ObamaLand Center 99-Year Lease For Just $10
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Emerging Market Euphoria Is Back With A Bang
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Bill Clinton Accuser Wants FBI To Probe Violent Rape Claim After Hillary Bobbles Kavanaugh Question
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Justice Dept Vows To Investigate After Second Veritas Video Exposes “Deep Throat” Types Within HHS
The Capital Spectator
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Research Review | 21 September 2018 | Volatility
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Macro Briefing: 21 September 2018
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 September 2018
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Macro Briefing: 20 September 2018
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A Tale Of Two Consumer Sector Returns: Discretionary vs. Staples
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Macro Briefing: 19 September 2018
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Clues Pile Up For Expecting Another Rate Hike Next Week
Marc Chandler
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The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar
Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies. While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows. The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling. Most emerging market currencies are advancing against the dollar today. Of note, the Hong Kong dollar's 0.4% rally is the largest in 15...
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Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar
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Movement but Little Change
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Dollar Trades Heavily as Emerging Markets Follow China
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Bannockburn Global Adds Leading Currency Strategist in Marc Chandler
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Dollar Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
Mish’s Global Economic
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Hurricane Florence Death Toll: 37 Humans, 3.4 Million Farm Animals
More than 5,500 pigs and 3.4 million chickens and turkeys have been killed in Hurricane Florence, mostly by drowning in record-breaking floods in North Carolina, says the state’s agriculture department. That number is expected to rise in the coming days, says North Carolina Department Agriculture and Consumer Services, as many farm owners have not had the opportunity to properly account for their losses, and millions of farm animals are still...
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Another Merkel Crisis: AfD Leads CDU in E. Germany, Major Coalition Infighting
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Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test
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“Stupid Time” for Pot Stocks
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Housing Starts Jump 9.2%, Permits Decline 5.7%
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Excellent Set of Tweets on Bonds, Crashes, Cannabis, Lumber by Charlie Bilello
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Excellent Set of Tweets on Bonds, Crashes, Cannabis, Lumber etc. from One Person
BK Asset Management
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Stocks Hit Record Highs, Which Currencies Benefitted the Most?
Stocks Hit Record Highs, Which Currencies Benefitted the Most? Daily FX Market Roundup 09.20.18 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management All of the major currencies traded sharply higher today on the back of strong gains in U.S. equities. Risk appetite has been healthy throughout the week but today investor optimism carried the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs. These moves also drove...
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How SNB, Brexit and Trade Wars Affects FX
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Currencies Rally but Beware of Trump’s China Tariff Announcement
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Trade War or No? FX Want to Know
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Is the Dollar Baaack?
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Euro Tests 1.17 on ECB – Trade or Fade?
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BoE vs. ECB – Which will be the Biggest Surprise?
Calculated Risk
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BLS: Unemployment Rates in Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina and Washington at New Lows
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in August in 13 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 34 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 39 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate was unchanged from July at 3.9 percent but was 0.5...
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Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q2
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Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Suggested Faster Growth in September
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CoreLogic: 2.2 million Homes still in negative equity at end of Q2 2018
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Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2
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A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Unchanged at 5.34 million in August
Epsilon Theory
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Mastering the Art of French Cooking
If you’re afraid of butter, use cream. — Julia Child (1912 – 2004) I went to graduate school “in Boston”, which is the socially responsible, if risible, way of saying that I went to Harvard. My using the word “risible” just then instead of “laughable” was a dead giveaway, too. Have I ever said that I went to grad school in Boston instead of saying that I went to grad school at Harvard? Yes, I have. Talking about Team Elite education is the...
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But Our Interests Are Aligned!
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Notes From the Road: Roadkill
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You Provide the Pictures and I’ll Provide the War
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True Freedoms / Hollow Freedoms
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Lehman and the Meta-Game of Trading
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Hunt’s Law: An Experiment
Charles Hugh Smith
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When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End?
Credit bubbles are not engines of sustainable employment, they are only engines of malinvestment and wealth destruction on a grand scale. We all know the Status Quo's response to the global financial meltdown of 2008 has been a travesty of a mockery of a sham--smoke and mirrors, flimsy facades of "recovery," simulacrum "reforms," serial bubble-blowing and politically expedient can-kicking, all based on borrowing and...
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Digging into Wealth and Income Inequality
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We’re All Speculators Now
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Massive Deficit Spending Greenlights Waste, Fraud, Profiteering and Dysfunction
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The Next Financial Crisis Is Right on Schedule (2019)
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How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable
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The Brevity of Life and Making Changes Before It’s Too Late
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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A bold forecast: there will be no autumn surge in housing this year
- by New Deal democrat The big issue this year in housing is whether increased mortgage rates and higher prices have merely resulted in a deceleration in the increase in new housing sales and construction, or whether housing is actually rolling over. As I've written several times in the last month, there is accumulating evidence that it is actually the latter: housing has at very least plateaued. The acid test will be what happens in the...
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Housing has at very least plateaued
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Housing: a big miss in permits with important ramifications
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A hypothesis for Prof. Krugman: the transmission method was FEAR
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A detailed look at Industrial Production during this expansion
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Weekly Indicators for September 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha
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Subdued inflation helps gains in real average and aggregate wages
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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New Piece on MMT
Arjun Jayadev and I have a new piece up at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, trying to clarify the relationship between Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and textbook macroeconomics. (There is also a pdf version here, which I think is a bit more readable.) I will have a blogpost summarizing the argument later today or tomorrow, but in the meantime here is the abstract: An increasingly visible school of heterodox macroeconomics, Modern...
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Lecture Notes for Research Methods
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Macroeconomic Lessons from the Past Decade
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“Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change”
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Guns and Ice Cream
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Decarbonization: A Keynesian View
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Where New York’s One Percent Live
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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18/9/18: Extreme Concentration Risk: Bitcoin’s VUCA Bomb
I wrote before both, about the general problem of concentration risk and the specific problem of this risk (more accurately, the concentration-implied VUCA environment) in the specific asset classes and the economy. Here is another reminder of how the build up of concentration risks in the financial markets is contaminating all asset classes, including the off-the-wall crypto...
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13/9/18: Shares Buybacks Swallow much of Trump’s Corporate Tax ‘Reforms’
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13/9/18: Concentration Risk: IPOs, New Firms Arrivals & Super Stars
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11/9/18: Slow Recoveries & Unemployment Traps: Hysteresis and/or Secular Stagnation
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9/9/18: Dershowitz’s New Doctrine in Law
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9/9/18: IMF and Argentina: New Old Saga
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9/9/18: The end of the clam before the storm
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Housing Slump Continues
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) today picks right up where we left off yesterday. The Census Bureau had reported another month suggesting a rough spot in real estate. More recent housing data isn’t encouraging, either. The lower the unemployment rate goes, the main emphasis of this “boom”, the worse the housing market becomes; not because one follows inversely the other, rather because the unemployment doesn’t reflect on-the-ground...
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We Don’t Have A Debt Problem, It’s ‘Something’ Else
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Processing Powell’s Rout
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New(s) Housing
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Monthly Macro Monitor – September
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Brazil Money Math
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TIC For July 2018: June Was Even Bigger Than We Thought, Meaning May 29
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Quit Fighting the Last War
There is a normal economic calendar featuring four different housing reports. With little interest in recent economic or earnings news, the punditry has been interested in history. For many it is another opportunity to sell fear. The pundits might not change focus, but investors should have a resolution: Quit fighting the last war! Today’s WTWA will touch on a (mostly) overlooked element of the financial crisis. The Final Thought will...
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Dash of Insight 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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Stock Exchange: Hindenburg Omen Flashing Red, Is It Reliable?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation Watch
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Stock Exchange: Do You Buy At All Time Highs?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: All About Jobs!
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Stock Exchange: You Can Make It As A Trader, If You Do It Right
Curious Cat
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
I created a 10 stocks for 10 years portfolio in April of 2005 which I shared on this blog. It did very well. Over the years I adjusted the portfolio occasionally. Unfortunately the website I used to track results stopped doing that (and it is much more difficult to track results – with dividends, stock splits, spinoff… than you might suppose). I estimate I beat the S&P 500 by maybe 300 basis points annually (for the portfolio with...
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
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“Explaining” Random Variation
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2017
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Nov 2017
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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They Should Have Listened
We wanted to be sure that you saw the latest paper by CEPR Co-Founder and Senior Economist Dean Baker, "The Housing Bubble and the Great Recession: Ten Years Later." We released the report on the 10th anniversary of the peak of the financial crisis. Had the powers that be listened to Dean — who first ...
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Core Inflation Slows to 0.1 Percent in August
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No Real Gains in Living Standards for Young People in 2017
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, September 7, 2018
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Manufacturing Employment Falls in August
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New Trump Proposal to Restrict Legal Immigration Even Worse than Media Says
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What Happened to Black Unemployment as Unemployment Declined Further?
Economic Populist
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history. Also with this benchmark revision, the reference year...
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
Naked Capitalism
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Why the Public Debt Should Be Treated as an Asset
By John Weeks, Professor Emeritus, School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London, and author of ‘Economics of the 1%: How mainstream economics serves the rich, obscures reality and distorts policy’, Anthem Press. Originally published at openDemocracy The 20thcentury American comedian Rodney Dangerfield had a catchphrase: “I don’t get no respect”. The public debt is the Rodney Dangerfield of government finances. It is a long...
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Links 9/21/18
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Crash Out Brexit Virtually Guaranteed as EU Leaders Talk Tough to Theresa May, Reject Chequers Plan, and Give Her October Deadline
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Post Crisis Measures Have Failed to Tame Derivatives Risks
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Why the “Green New Deal” Is a Headfake
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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/20/2018
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On Brexit, UK Negotiators Have Adopted a Hard Bargaining Strategy
Lance Roberts RIA
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Why 80% Of Americans Face A Retirement Crisis
It is hard to make the claim the economy is on the verge of acceleration with the underlying dynamics of savings and debt suggesting a more dire backdrop. It also goes a long way in explaining why, as stated above, the majority of Americans are NOT saving for their retirement. “In addition, many workers whose employers do offer these plans face obstacles to participation, such as more immediate financial needs, other savings priorities such as...
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3-Steps To A Successful Open Enrollment – Part 1
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A Walking Contradiction – Warren Buffett
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VLOG – Markets Diverge From The U.S.
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VLOG – A Shift In Valuations & Investor Perspectives
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Technically Speaking: The World Diverges From The US
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The Ingredients Of An “Event”
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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No Posts 9/18-9/24
[unable to retrieve full-text content]We will be offline September 18 through September 24. We will publish the missed updates on the 25th with a slight delay.
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World Markets Update
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Unchanged
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: August Real Retail Sales
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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continues to Grow in September
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S&P 500 Snapshot: A Week of Gains After Minor Losses
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A Long-Term Look at Inflation
The Barrel Blog
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More than a year later, how has Mexican natural gas pricing evolved?
In June 2017, Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced the elimination of the maximum price of natural gas, known as the first-hand price, or the VPM. Instead of using this price cap formula, the state-owned oil and natural gas company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), alongside independent market participants, would determine prices based on market conditions. More than a year later, how does the Mexican market look from a pricing...
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Insight: Nuclear industry, vendors believe there’s a future for microreactors
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Brexit no deal is no worry for North Sea oil and UK energy sector
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Out-of-kilter Newcastle 6,000 NAR thermal coal prices put future of Asian benchmark in question
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Will 2020 be a game changer for bunker credit?
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Insight from Washington: What to watch for in the US midterm elections
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Could IMO 2020 sulfur cap be subject to law of unintended consequences?
Eurostat News Releases
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Production in construction up by 0.3% in euro area
Download PDF
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How has the EU progressed towards the Sustainable Development Goals?
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Annual inflation down to 2.0% in the euro area
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Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.1%
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.6 bn
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Annual growth in labour costs at 2.2% in euro area
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Take a look at how your region compares to others
Commodity Blog
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Soybeans Rebound From 10-Year Low Amid Record US Crop
Soybean futures are rebounding from their worst levels in a decade on Thursday. Soybean, which has been in the middle of the escalating trade dispute between the US and China, has been tumbling this week on reports of a record US crop and Brazilian farmers speeding up soybean plantings. Soybean prices are now looking to avoid a noticeable weekly decline. November soybean futures rose $0.0125, or 0.15%, to $8.2875 per bushel at 13:49 GMT...
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US Crude Climbs Above $70 As Domestic Supplies Fall
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Copper Futures Surge 3% As Investors Shrug Off New Tariffs
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Gold Rallies on Slumping US Dollar, Equities
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Commodities Technical Analysis, September 17th — September 21st
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Gold Falls on Higher US Dollar, Booming Economic Data
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Gold Retreats Despite Weaker US Dollar
BEA
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Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, 2012-2016
The Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account (ORSA) measures the size of the outdoor recreation economy and the link between outdoor recreation and the broader U.S. economy. Like other satellite accounts, the ORSA was built on BEA’s comprehensive supply-use framework. The supply-use tables provide a detailed look at the relationships among industries and how each industry contributes to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In practice, the ORSA is a...
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U.S. International Transactions, 2nd quarter, 2018
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Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2018 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2018 (Preliminary Estimate)
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American Samoa GDP Decreases in 2017
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Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises: 2016
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The Page You Requested Was Not Found
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2018
Humble student of the markets
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The macro risks that keep me awake at night
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...
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The risks to Trump’s NAFTA gambit
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On the verge of a “good overbought” rally, or market stall?
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Why the Powell Jackson Hole speech was less dovish than the market thinks
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10 or more technical reasons to be cautious on stocks
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Why positive breadth won’t help the bull case
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How many pennies are left in front of the steamroller?
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again, everyone. Welcome back to the Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan, thank you so much for tuning in today. We really appreciate it. Tiho, my friend, I want to ask how you’re doing today and what will we be covering in this episode number 21?Tiho Brkan: Jordan, I’m doing very well, thank you for asking. We’ll be looking at the precious metal sector, something that you are an expert in. So we’re...
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
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12 Charts Covering Current Stock Market Indecision
Global Macro Monitor
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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market
Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term interest rates low and term premia repressed are fading We expect a measured move in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.25 to 4.40 percent, much sooner than the market anticipates...
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Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?
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The Feast Of Big Tech
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Salary Needed To Purchase Average Home By State
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What Drives The Trade Deficit?
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Double Yikes!!!
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QOTD: Complex Adaptive Financial System
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Financial Crisis of 2008 Part VII: FEDDIE
This seven-part series is excerpted from Chapter 8 of my book, Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography. WITH THE FINANCIAL crisis rapidly spreading during September 2008, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proposed a plan under which the Treasury would acquire up to $700 billion worth of MBSs to relieve banks of these toxic assets. Only three pages long, the plan was called the “Troubled Asset Relief Program” (TARP). A longer...
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The Financial Crisis of 2018 Part VI: FLAW IN THE MODEL
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part V: FAULTY INSURANCE POLICIES
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part IV: THE GREAT RECESSION
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part III: WEAPONS OF MASS FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part II: ROUNDING UP THE SUSPECTS
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part I: IN THE BEGINNING