2:00PM Water Cooler 1/21/2022

By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day “Individual 4 and 5. Two birds chasing each other around, alternating songs.” * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “They had learned nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” –Hunter Thompson Capitol Seizure “Jan. 6...

Eurodollar Futures Curve Update (spoiler: still inverted)

I guess I took my own advice a little too literally. I did write that when the eurodollar futures curve first inverted, it was going to be dull. Didn’t start out that way, of course, with a small bit of theatrics right during that front week in December when the inversion first showed up. Ever since then, it has stuck to what I had said on Day 2 about what you should expect, or not to: For the time being, our focus for now remains on the...

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2021

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $80.2 billion in November, up $13.0 billion from $67.2 billion in October, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $80.2 Billion +19.4%° Exports: $224.2 Billion +0.2%° Imports: $304.4 Billion +4.6%° Next release:...

Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00

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Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices

Since the pandemic has disrupted new car production and sales, used car prices have increased sharply. This has pushed up inflation ("Used Cars" were up 51% annualized in December).Here is some data on used vehicle wholesale prices. From Manheim Consulting: Wholesale Prices Increased at Slowing Pace on Seasonally Adjusted Basis in December Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased...

Commodities Corner: Lean Hogs Rally to Record High, Coffee Slips on Suez Canal Relief

Spilling a Cup of Cocoa   Cocoa futures ended the trading week below $2,400 per metric ton as demand concerns weighed on the agricultural commodity. Contracts are settling near their lowest levels since the beginning of November.   Cocoa’s direction is being mostly driven by the resurgence of coronavirus infections across Europe, a major market for the crop. As COVID-19 cases skyrocket, many jurisdictions are instituting new lockdowns...

China ‘not interested’ in becoming world’s No 1 economy or global hegemony, says vice foreign minister

[unable to retrieve full-text content]China should pay more attention to surpassing the United States in terms of improving people’s lives and contributing positively to the world, rather than pursuing the goal of becoming the world’s No 1 economy, said the country’s vice foreign minister on Tuesday.Le Yucheng made the comments a day after China published its 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of 8.1 per cent, beating expectations...

23/6/21: Covid19 Deaths and Income Inequality

An interesting, although intuitively straight forward note on the determinants of Covid19 deaths: https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1407418434955005955. As Youyang Gu @youyanggu states, "I believe income inequality is the single best predictor of total Covid deaths in the US. Not income, but income *inequality*. The R^2 is surprisingly high: 0.35."There are some potentially important issues with this analysis (some are explored...

New Health Care Insurance Subsidies in the USA

The $1.9 trillion covid19 relief law (American Rescue Plan Act) includes large increases in health insurance subsidies in addition to the $1,400 per person payments to individuals. The law increases subsidies for 2 years. Under the new law, nobody will have to pay more than 8.5% of their income on health insurance. The government will also pick up 100% of COBRA premiums through September. COBRA is health insurance for people who’ve lost...

Dash of Insight 1970-01-01 00:00:00

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Underlying Inflation Gauge: October Update

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The latest full set UIG for October is 4.26% while the prices-only measure is 4.40%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.22% and Core CPI is 4.56%.

Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform

You’re Not Wrong, Walter

Why do I have to complete a CAPTCHA? Completing the CAPTCHA proves you are a human and gives you temporary access to the web property. What can I do to prevent this in the future? If you are on a personal connection, like at home, you can run an anti-virus scan on your device to make sure it is not infected with malware. If you are at an office or shared...

Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy

Following an extensive review that included numerous public events across the country, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday announced the unanimous approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates its approach to monetary policy and serves as the foundation for its policy actions. The updates reflect changes in the economy over the past decade and how policymakers are...

The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time

#CKStrong We are reposting a repost of a post for the holiday and in honor of Dr. King, one of our greatest Americans, a true patriot, and a modern day saint. Originally Posted on January 21, 2019 During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major cities to present our ideas to institutional investors.   One particular year, we were in Atlanta at the end of the week and...

Housing ends 2021 with a bang

- by New Deal democratHousing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million annualized, and permits (gold) to 1.873 million annualized, in both cases the highest level since 2006 with the sole exception of last March / January, respectively. Single family permits (red, right scale), which are the least noisy, increased to 1.128 million annualized, the highest reading since May, but...

A breakout to S&P 4920?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following...

Climate Policy from a Keynesian Perspective

(This is the extended abstract for a piece I am writing for “The Great Turnaround,” a collection of essays on the economics of decarbonization from ZOE-Institute for Future-fit Economies and the Heinrich Böll Foundation.)  In the world in which we live, large-scale cooperation is largely organized through payments of money. Orthodox economics conflates these money flows, on the one hand with quantities of real social and physical things, and...

Five Of The Best Money Ideas For 2022.

Print Friendly When I query my Magic 8 Ball about major financial decisions, it rarely disappoints. Frankly, the track record for correct responses stands at 80%. Not too shabby. I received a resounding YES ABSOLUTELY to the following best money ideas for 2022: First best money idea: Fund a Roth IRA or Roth 401k. Unless you believe your future tax burden is lower, 2022 is time to switch from the tax-deferred lane of traditional IRAs and...

Dollar Comes Back Offered

Overview:  The interest rate adjustment continues as the US 10-year Treasury yield firmed to test 1.90%, and the 2% target comes into view.  The German 10-year yield poked above zero for the first time since May 2019 and is straddling the area now. A bigger than expected rise in UK inflation lifted the 10-year Gilt yield to 1.3%, its highest level since March 2019 before pulling back.  Asia Pacific equities were a sea of red, led by a nearly...

Mish's Talk 1970-01-01 00:00:00

Maven is a best-in-class technology platform empowering premium publishers who impact, inform, educate and entertain.We operate the media businesses for Sports Illustrated and TheStreet, and power over 140 brands including History, Maxim, and Biography. Maven is publicly traded under the ticker symbol MVEN.

2:00PM Water Cooler 1/21/2022

By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day “Individual 4 and 5. Two birds chasing each other around, alternating songs.” * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “They had learned nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” –Hunter Thompson Capitol Seizure “Jan. 6...

Join us at The Daily Shot

Please join us at The Daily Shot.The Daily Shot® (TheDailyShot.com) is a niche graphical newsletter (see sample) that is not meant for broad distribution. Our objective is to work with a small group of professionals who are interested in a brief unbiased daily overview of global macro currents. We do not offer investment advice or trading recommendations, and nothing in The Daily Shot® should be interpreted as such.The Daily Shot® began as an...

Peak oil is coming, it’s just a question of when: Fuel for Thought

October marks a historic but largely forgotten moment in the history of the oil sector, and something which is unlikely to ever be repeated if forecasts for the demise of the world’s most valuable fossil fuel prove accurate. Fifty years ago, BP – then known as British Petroleum and state-owned – discovered oil off the coast of Scotland in the once mighty Forties field with the help of a GBP370 million loan. The financing would be equivalent to...

10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 7 January 2022

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a nine-month high on Thursday (Jan. 6), which may be a prelude to setting a new pandemic high in the days ahead. If that happens, the increase would signal a higher probability that the benchmark rate would push above levels reached before the pandemic started in early 2020. During the 12 months prior to pandemic, the 10-year rate traded in the roughly 2%-3%-plus range. The catalyst: higher inflation...

Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now

[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....