Macro
Zerohedge
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Trump Responds To UK Accusations Of Suicide Bombing Leaks
Overnight saw one of the closest intelligence-sharing partnerships tested as never before in the fight against global terrorism, as Prime Minister Theresa May confronted President Donald Trump over U.S. media leaks from the Manchester bombing probe. As Bloomberg reports, police investigating the suicide bombing that killed 22 people at a pop concert in the city in northern England have ...
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Montana House Candidate Charged With Assault After “Body Slamming” Guardian Reporter
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Uneven Inflation: The Protected Are Fine, The Unprotected Are Impoverished Debt-Serfs
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RBC Explains What The Hell Is Going On: “Prudent” Fed & Chinese Intervention
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Sean Hannity Takes “Abrupt Vacation” Amid Advertiser Boycott
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Nasdaq Finally Erases Trump-Dump – Spikes To Record High
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Stocks Are Now At #2, Next Up #3 (the Big Breakdown?)
The Capital Spectator
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Housing’s Weak Start For Q2 Is Probably Noise
April was a rough month for housing. For the first time in a year, housing starts and sales of new and existing homes declined for the monthly comparison. The weakness weighed on the year-over-year change, which slumped to an 18-month low. Given housing’s critical role for growth, the slowdown would be worrisome if other corners of the economy weren’t showing signs of strength. Nonetheless, a soft housing market isn’t easily dismissed for...
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Another Rate Hike Approaches As The Yield Curve Flattens
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Strong Rebound Expected For US Q2 GDP Growth
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Foreign Bonds Pop As US Dollar Stumbles
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Book Bits | 20 May 2017
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 May 2017
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Mr. Market Demands A Bigger Discount For Political Risk
Marc Chandler
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The Opaqueness of US Economic Policy
It is not just the fear that the investigations into Russia's attempt to influence the US election will distract from the Trump Administration's economic program. It is also that the economic agenda itself seems is less clear. That China was not cited as a currency manipulator is no major surprise. Bush and Obama also made the threat on the campaign trail over jettison it when the were in office. China has not been cited since 1994. ...
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Euro Strength more than Dollar Weakness
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Five Takeaways from Trump’s First Budget
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Dollar Consolidates, While Market Shrugs Off China Downgrade
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Four Numbers to Watch in FX
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Do Higher Prices Make Crypto-Assets Crypto-Currencies?
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Greenback Remains Soft
Mish’s Global Economic
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Is the Manufacturing Growth Slowdown No Longer Welcome? Already?
On May 15, the Empire State manufacturing report kicked off the start of monthly regional Fed manufacturing reports with a composite reading of -1.0 vs an Econoday consensus expectation of 8.0. Econoday called the Empire State slowdown “welcome news”. It feared manufacturing was overheating. Yesterday, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged from 20 to 1. The Econoday consensus estimate was 15 in a range of 13 to 18. Econoday had this to...
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Federal Receipts Running Below Expectations: Treasury Seeks “Clean” Debt Ceiling Increase (Removed)
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Spring Housing Flop: Existing Home Sales Decline 2.3 Percent, Inventory Issues Persist
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3% Growth? Really?!
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Trump Plans to Slash Spending by $3.6 Trillion, Increase Military Spending, Balance the Budget in 10 Years
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New Home Sales Contract 11.4%: Sales Barely Up Year-Over-Year
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Greek Debt Groundhog Day: Deal Collapses After 8 Hours of Negotiation
BK Asset Management
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Cable Wobbles on GDP, Dollar Finds Buyers
Market Drivers May 25, 2017 UK GDP misses Oil turns volatile sends comm dollars Nikkei 0.36% Dax 0.12% Oil $51/bbl Gold $1257/oz. Europe and Asia: GBP UK GDP 0.2% vs. 0.3% North America: USD Weekly Jobless Claims 8:30 A topsy-turvy night of trade in the FX market today as the greenback first saw selling across the board in the wake of yesterday’s less than hawkish FOMC minutes, only to see flows reverse in morning European dealing as EURUSD...
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CAD Soars, USD Tanks of Fed Inflation Views
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USD Catches a Mild Bid
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Turnaround Tuesday – Behind the Wild Ride in FX
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Fresh Highs Hit As Euro Express Rolls On
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Is the EURO Headed for 1.15?
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Cable Stumbles on Brexit Grumbles
Calculated Risk
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Some interesting analysis from Josh Lehner at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis: States at Full Employment, A Prime-Age EPOP StoryThe key economic question economists are trying to answer today is whether or not the U.S. economy is at full employment. Given it is more a concept then a hard calculation, you look for signs in the data that suggest the economy is there. In terms of jobs and the unemployment rate, there is no question the...
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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in April
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FOMC Minutes: More details on Balance Sheet Reduction
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A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales
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AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in April
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NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3 Percent in April"
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
Charles Hugh Smith
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Inflation Isn’t Evenly Distributed: The Protected Are Fine, the Unprotected Are Impoverished Debt-Serfs
Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living for the unprotected many who are ruled by a hubris-soaked, subsidized Protected Elite. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation is bogus on a number of fronts, a reality I've covered a number of times: though the heavily gamed official CPI is under 2% for the past four years, the real rate is 7% to 12%, depending on whether you happen to live in...
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The Keynesian Cult Has Failed: “Emergency” Stimulus Is Now Permanent
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Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate
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TINA’s Legacy: Free Money, Bread and Circuses and Collapse
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Want to Understand Rising Wealth Inequality? Look at Debt and Interest
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The Soft Underbelly of Scandinavian “High-Tax Happy-Capitalism”
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Why We’re Fragmenting: The Status Quo Is Disintegrating
Alhambra Investment Partners
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So, Bitcoins
Bitcoins are a remarkable bit of innovative technology. When they were first introduced quietly at the end of October 2008, nobody noticed it or the fitting timing. The design paper for the cryptocurrency was published anonymously at the very same moment the dominant global currency, the eurodollar, was undergoing its severe reckoning. The latter is in many ways like the former, since the eurodollar is not a thing just like Bitcoins. In many...
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Almost Certain
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There Is Clarity In Oil’s Increasingly Cloudy Forecast
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Act Accordingly, Again
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(Political) Logic
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Suddenly Impatient Sentiment
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Not Do We Need One, But Do We Need A Different One
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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CEPR Blog
In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney famously commented that 47 percent of Americans were “dependent on government” because they didn’t pay any federal income taxes. He went on to explain that his job was “not to worry about those people.” Journalists and other public figures often claim that only the rich pay taxes, supporting this with the argument that the rich pay the vast majority of federal income taxes. However,...
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The Different Experiences of Black Unemployment and White Unemployment
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Trump Tax Returns: Necessary, But Not Enough
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Declines in Employment by Demographic Group
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Trends in Employment and School Enrollment Among 16–24 Year-Olds
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Prime-Age Employment Rate Hits Record High for Recovery in February
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Rents and Minimum Wage Income in the U.S.’s Largest Cities
Economic Populist
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OPEC cuts still not reducing global oil glut, and they know it
Both oil and natural gas prices moved higher last week, as both commodities saw larger than expected withdrawals of supplies from storage, while oil prices were also underpinned by expectations that OPEC would extend their production cuts when they meet in Vienna later this month. An expression of confidence in that extension from Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih on Monday buttressed the rebound from last week's crash, as oil rose 21...
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CPI Up 0.2% as Fresh Vegetables Soar in April
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It’s Time for a Rant about this Trump/Russia Foolishness!
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April Unemployment Rate Lowest Since May 2007
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The Looting Machine Called Capitalism
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2017 Q1 US GDP a Sad 0.7%
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Donald Trump’s Syria Problem
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 5/25/2017
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Politics Policy “Republican lawmakers are lining up in opposition to big portions of President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget, which was unveiled this week. Some Republicans in the House and Senate say cuts to certain programs go too far. Even increased spending to typical Republican priorities like defense drew criticism for falling short” [Blooomberg]. 2017 MT-AL: “Montana’s wild special election:...
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Dumb Things Politicians Say About Health Care Policy
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Links 5/25/17
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Don Quijones: Catalonia Threatens Spain with “Financial Bloodbath”
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Trump’s Budget Delivers Big Oil’s Wish: Reducing Strategic Petroleum Reserve
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Yet Another Video Shows U.S.-Funded White Helmets Assisting Public Executions in Rebel-Held Syria
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2:00PM Water Cooler 5/24/2017
Lance Roberts RIA
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Spot What’s Missing – Investing Wisdoms
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Over the last 30-years, I have endeavored to learn from my own mistakes and, trust me, I have paid plenty of “stupid-tax” along the way. However, it is only from making...
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Clouds on the Horizon : Range Chart Update
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#FP: The Genesis Of The “Bubble’s Bubble”
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Technically Speaking: Bulls Struggle With Bearish Internals
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The Headwinds To Higher Oil Prices
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A Flash Of Excitement 05-19-17
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Weekend Reading: End Of Trumpflation?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Offline Thursday and Friday
[unable to retrieve full-text content]We will be offline for Thursday and Friday this week due to travel and will be publishing the missed updates the following week, after the Memorial Day holiday.
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Existing-Home Sales: April Headline Number Down 2.3% Month-over-Month
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FHFA House Price Index: The Rise Continues
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April Real Median Household Income Shows Encouraging Growth
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing: May Composite Index Takes a Dive
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April New Home Sales Come in Below Expectations
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular Up 3 Cents, Premium 2 Cents
The Barrel Blog
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The case of Nigeria’s OPL 245
The long-running saga over control of Nigeria’s OPL 245, believed to be the biggest source of untapped oil reserves on the African continent, has again come to the fore, with oil majors Shell and Eni potentially facing legal action over its acquisition. The block’s oil reserves are estimated at 9 billion barrels, about a quarter of Nigeria’s total proven reserves. There is also an unspecified, but apparently large, amount of natural gas. The...
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How can shipowners best deal with tighter IMO sulfur limits post-2020?
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Fuel for Thought: Oil outlook – crunch time or gloom mongering?
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Milan steel fair gripped by talks on ILVA impact, import curbs
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Cautious progress in Libya’s oil output
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Can electrification penetrate the heavy-duty vehicle sector?
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Ample oil supply in a demand-constrained world: Fuel for Thought
Eurostat News Releases
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Annual inflation up to 1.9% in the euro area
Download PDF
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Production in construction down by 1.1% in euro area
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GDP up by 0.5% in both the euro area and the EU28
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €30.9 bn
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Industrial production down by 0.1% in euro area
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63 300 unaccompanied minors among asylum seekers registered in the EU in 2016
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.3% in euro area
Commodity Blog
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US Crude Sinks Below $50 as OPEC Extension Disappoints Market
US crude tumbled to fresh lows on Thursday as it is now trading under $50. Oil prices plummeted more than 4% as investors were disappointed by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s nine-month extension to freeze oil production. July West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures cratered $2.13, or 4.08%, to $49.28 per barrel at 16:39 GMT on Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. US crude is now trading at fresh lows –...
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China’s Downgrade, Falling Imports Sends Copper Futures Lower
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Crude Oil Meanders Ahead of OPEC Meeting
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Gold Futures Flat as Caution Sweeps Market After Terrorist Attack
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Commodities Technical Analysis, May 22nd — May 26th
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Bitcoin Price Climbs Closer to $2,000 Mark on Rising Demand in Japan and Korea
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Gold Poised for Best Weekly Gain in 5 Weeks
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2016 and annual 2016
Finance and Insurance Led Growth Across States in the Fourth Quarter Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in every state and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to statistics on the geographic breakout of GDP released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth ranged from 3.4 percent in Texas to 0.1 percent in Kansas and Mississippi (table 1 and chart 1). Finance and...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2017
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Personal Income and Outlays, March 2017
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2017 (advance estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter and annual 2016
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Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States 2014
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2017
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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How Are Fund Managers Positioned In Global Markets?
Weekly Notes With Tiho — Issue 7Here I am.Leaving Thailand’s beautiful paradise of Phi Phi Islands.Clearly, I am in deep thought about the state of global economy, financial markets, and geopolitical affairs.Like all the other hedge fund managers, newsletter writers and macro thinkers of our time.Come on!I’m just joking with you.I’m actually enjoying the scenery and crystal clear waters. I just forgot my sunglasses.Having said that, later that...
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“Travel Points Hustle” Notes: How Auggie Saved Thousands AND Flew First Class
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What Could Investors Expect If Stocks Peaked Today?
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The Most Common International Tax Trap
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5 Things to Consider Before Starting the “Travel Points Hustle” Cont.
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The Most Common Question About International Tax
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When Does Good News Become Bad News?
Humble student of the markets
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Two elections, two questions for investors
Get more articles like thisBack to full articleIn the past week, two key elections have been held that have important geopolitical, economic, and investment implications. First, remember this Time magazine cover? I indicated on February 6, 2017 that the cover may have marked Peak populism. I suggested at the time to buy France and sell Germany as a pairs trade. That trade has certainly worked out well. Now that Emmanuel Macron is...
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The right and wrong ways to use Rydex sentiment
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Are the Fed and PBoC taking away the punch bowl?
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What’s next for gold?
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Finding risk and opportunities from the BAML and Barron’s Big Money polls
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Should you sell in May and go away?
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Just overbought, or a “good overbought” signal?
Global Macro Monitor
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God Bless Our British Brothers and Sisters
We are with you during these dark days. Only time can heal and then never fully. I know, my family experienced a similar tragic hate crime several years ago. Try not to let the bitterness, which is only natural, eat you up and ruin the rest of your lives. Easier said than done. How many times I have dropped my daughters off at concerts without even thinking about such a terrible tragedy what you have just experienced could happen. ...
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The Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements
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US Sector ETF Performance – May 19
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Global Risk Monitor – May 19
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How Presidential Scandal Endangers Global Stability
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Beware Shorting Impeachments
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George Orwell’s Monetary Policy
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Valuation: A Less Miserable Measure
Almost all valuation multiples are flashing that stocks are dangerously overvalued. Are there any valuation models suggesting that the danger signals might be false alarms? There is one. It shows the inverse relationship since 1979 between the S&P 500 forward P/E and the Misery Index, which is the sum of the unemployment rate and the CPI inflation rate. Let’s have a look at it and compare it to a few of the other valuation indicators: (1)...
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Death by Amazon
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Earnings: Small Is Beautiful
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Seinfeld Market: Nothing Bad Happening
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A Happier Global Economy
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Driving in the Slow Lane
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Back to Slower, Longer Economic Growth?