The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 21 April 2021

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down for a second day, settling at 1.57% (Apr. 21). That’s close to the lowest rate in over a month. If the 10-year rate closes lower on Friday vs. the week-ago yield, the slide will mark the third straight weekly decline. continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 65; Part 2: Is Jay Powell Right?

65.2 The Fed is right about inflation (this time)———Part 2 Summary———US producer prices surged in the month of March. But Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell said they won’t last, that they are “transitory”. HE IS RIGHT! But the reason he gives – the covo – is not correct. No, the reason is the same one since 2007: the global, silent depression. ———See It———–...

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2021

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.1 billion in February, up $3.3 billion from $67.8 billion in January, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $71.1 Billion +4.8%° Exports: $187.3 Billion -2.6%° Imports: $258.3 Billion -0.7%° Next release:...

EURO: Could ECB Follow in Bank of Canada Footsteps?

EURO: Could ECB Follow in Bank of Canada Footsteps? Daily FX Market Roundup 04.21.2021 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy announcement is one of the most important event risks this week. With a seven week gap between tomorrow’s meeting and the next, the ECB has one of two choices – they can take this opportunity to clarify their forward guidance or they...

Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00

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April 19th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Spring Wave May Have Peaked

Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.According to the CDC, 211.6 million doses have been administered. 33.0% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 50.7% of the...

The Only Way to Get Ahead Now Is Crazy-Risky Speculation

It's all so pathetic, isn't it? The only way left to get ahead in America is to leverage up the riskiest gambles. It's painfully obvious that the only way left to get ahead in America is crazy-risky speculation, but nobody seems to even notice this stark and stunning reality. Why are people piling into crazy-risky bets on speculative vehicles like Gamestop and Dogecoin? The obvious answer is because others have reaped a decade or two of...

Commodities Corner: Lean Hogs Rally to Record High, Coffee Slips on Suez Canal Relief

Spilling a Cup of Cocoa   Cocoa futures ended the trading week below $2,400 per metric ton as demand concerns weighed on the agricultural commodity. Contracts are settling near their lowest levels since the beginning of November.   Cocoa’s direction is being mostly driven by the resurgence of coronavirus infections across Europe, a major market for the crop. As COVID-19 cases skyrocket, many jurisdictions are instituting new lockdowns...

China iron ore demand leaves miners Vale, Rio Tinto struggling to keep up

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The world’s top two iron ore miners struggled to keep up with strong Chinese demand in the first quarter of 2021, hit by operational challenges and weather disruptions, in a positive sign for prices that are already at decade highs.Brazil’s Vale SA churned out less ore than expected last quarter after lower productivity at one mine and a ship loader fire, with its recovery from an early-2019 tailings dam...

14/4/21: The share of those in unemployment > 27 weeks is rising

One way to look at the state of the real (as opposed to financialized and corporate-value focused) economy is to look at unemployment. And one of the strongest indicators of longer term changes in the structure of the real economy is the fate of the longer term unemployed. Here is an interesting snapshot of data: the percentage of those unemployed for 27 week or longer in the total pool of the unemployed. The higher the number, the more...

New Health Care Insurance Subsidies in the USA

The $1.9 trillion covid19 relief law (American Rescue Plan Act) includes large increases in health insurance subsidies in addition to the $1,400 per person payments to individuals. The law increases subsidies for 2 years. Under the new law, nobody will have to pay more than 8.5% of their income on health insurance. The government will also pick up 100% of COBRA premiums through September. COBRA is health insurance for people who’ve lost...

Quick Update on Jeff

Hi, folks — this is Jeff’s son, Derek. I’ve had many eager readers reach out to ask why there’s been no WTWA the last few weeks. I thought I should fill y’all in. Jeff is in the hospital with a nasty case of pneumonia. The good news is that he has tested negative on repeated Covid tests, including an antibody test. Still, his doctors, Mrs. Oldprof, and myself are making sure that getting better is his sole focus for the near future....

Cryptocurrencies Through 4/20

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.

Outcome Rather Than Outlook; Reacting Rather Than Preempting

The Fed I: Backward Looking. Just in case we didn’t get the Fed’s memo on the change in its monetary framework, Fed Governor Lael Brainard explained it very clearly in a speech on March 23 titled “Remaining Patient as the Outlook Brightens.” Throughout her talk, she stressed very important distinctions in meaning between “outlook” and “outcome” and between “preempting” and “reacting.” She concluded her speech with her punchline: “By taking a...

Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform

The Zeitgeist – April 19, 2021

Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory. To receive a weekly full-text email of The Zeitgeist, please sign up here. It’s free, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. What’s Happening in the Chinese Financial Sector? I think the blow-up of Chinese asset manager Huarong ($42 billion in outstanding debt!) and the recent tightening of Chinese monetary policy are the biggest stories that NO...

Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy

Following an extensive review that included numerous public events across the country, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday announced the unanimous approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates its approach to monetary policy and serves as the foundation for its policy actions. The updates reflect changes in the economy over the past decade and how policymakers are...

Masters Week: Jack and German POWs (BFTP)

BFTP: Blast From The Past Post Who would of thunk “Infrastructure Week” at Augusta meant hiring German WWII POWs to build bridges at Golf’s Mecca. My top three picks this week for total money won:  Jon Rahm, Jordan Speith, and Phil, with the Spaniard (Rahm) taking home the Green Jacket. Golf’s Ultimate Shame Awesome to see Lee Elder hit the ceremonial first tee shot.   Lee Elder was the first Black man to play in the Masters back in 1975.   ...

The US may have crossed an important vaccination threshold

- by New Deal democratOn Monday I noted that in Chile, where there had been a severe renewed outbreak of coronavirus despite an aggressive vaccination program, cases had plateaued, and this had occurred “when over 35% of the population had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 20% were fully vaccinated.”Well, the recent upturn in cases in the US also seems to have plateaued:And guess what? The plateau in the US started to happen about 10...

A new trading framework

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following...

A Few Followup Links

The previous post got quite a bit of attention — more, I think, than anything I’ve written on this blog in the dozen years I’ve been doing it. I would like to do a followup post replying to some of the comments and criticisms, but I haven’t had time and realistically may not any time soon, or ever. In the meantime, though, here is some existing content that might be relevant to people who would like to see the arguments in that post drawn out...

Are You Playing Roulette With Your Retirement?

Are You Playing Roulette With Your Retirement? Would you hire a money manager that manages your wealth on false assumptions?   It seems like a bad idea, but many people unknowingly opt for such a management style in their retirement plans. Target Maturity Funds are one of the fastest-growing mutual fund sectors of the last decade. These passive strategies are most popular in 401k and other retirement plans with limited options and long...

Market has Second Thoughts about Timing of First Fed Hike

Overview:  Even as US yields edge higher, the dollar struggles. With the 10-year Treasury yields now at 1.62%, nine basis points above last week's lows, the greenback has turned mixed against the major currencies. After briefly slipping below JPY108, the dollar has recovered to around JPY108.55.  The euro firmed to $1.2080, and sterling pushed through $1.40 before seeing the gains pared.  Sterling is now lower on the day as are the Scandis. ...

Income Transfer Schemes US vs China, Which Country is in the Worst Shape?

Eddie_T4 hrsSo...currently the mandatory retirement age in China is 60 for men and 50 for female workers and 55 for female civil servants. Pretty young, by US standards. My understanding is that the PRC plan for the retirement age to go up slowly over the next several years. This is necessary, because the shortfall for their pension outlay is estimated by some to be as much as 11 trillion USD over the next 20 years. At the current retirement...

2:00PM Water Cooler 4/21/2021

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day More from Amazonia. * * * #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart from 91-DIVOC. The data is the Johns Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I feel I’m engaging in a macabre form of tape-watching. Vaccination by region: The Northeast jump is down to an enormous data error; the CDC data doesn’t show it, so it’s down to Johns Hopkins of DIVOC-19; I’ve written the maintainer....

Join us at The Daily Shot

Please join us at The Daily Shot.The Daily Shot® (TheDailyShot.com) is a niche graphical newsletter (see sample) that is not meant for broad distribution. Our objective is to work with a small group of professionals who are interested in a brief unbiased daily overview of global macro currents. We do not offer investment advice or trading recommendations, and nothing in The Daily Shot® should be interpreted as such.The Daily Shot® began as an...

Peak oil is coming, it’s just a question of when: Fuel for Thought

October marks a historic but largely forgotten moment in the history of the oil sector, and something which is unlikely to ever be repeated if forecasts for the demise of the world’s most valuable fossil fuel prove accurate. Fifty years ago, BP – then known as British Petroleum and state-owned – discovered oil off the coast of Scotland in the once mighty Forties field with the help of a GBP370 million loan. The financing would be equivalent to...

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 21 April 2021

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down for a second day, settling at 1.57% (Apr. 21). That’s close to the lowest rate in over a month. If the 10-year rate closes lower on Friday vs. the week-ago yield, the slide will mark the third straight weekly decline. continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now

[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....

Japan’s Hardest-Hit Regions Push For COVID State Of Emergency As Olympics Safety Review Looms

Japan's Hardest-Hit Regions Push For COVID State Of Emergency As Olympics Safety Review Looms President Biden has given his uneasy blessing to Japan and Tokyo's resolution to hold the 2020 Summer Olympic Games, which is set to begin in just a few months. Still, it's looking unlikely that the President will attend in person, and ...