Macro
Zerohedge
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Russiagate In Flames: No Evidence Of Collusion, New Findings Challenge DNC Hack Narrative
Authored by Elizabeth Lea Vos via Disobedient Media, In the last few weeks, we have witnessed two pillars of the Russiagate narrative continue to disintegrate and erode. First, we heard that a bipartisan inquiry by the Senate Intelligence Committee admitted that they have yet to find evidence indicating that the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia in the run-up ...
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Jefferies Is Shocked By How Clueless The Fed Turned Out To Be
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“The Berkshire Trade”: How Deutsche Bank Conspired To Conceal A $1.6 Billion Loss
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Smollett Declared Suspect In “MAGA Country” Hate Crime Hoax
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Disney, Nestle Pull YouTube Ads Over ‘Soft-Core Pedo Ring’ Exposed By Blogger
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Goldman: In March The Fed Will Announce QT Will End In Q3
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Man Dies After Train Drags Him Into Grand Central Station Tunnel
The Capital Spectator
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Junk, Long-Term Corporates Still Leading 2019 Bond Market Rally
The bull run in US bonds shows no sign of slowing, based on year-to-date performances for a set of exchange-traded funds. All the major slices of fixed-income markets are posting gains through yesterday’s close (Feb. 19), with junk bonds leading the field by a solid margin. SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond (JNK) ticked up to a new record high on Wednesday. For the year so far, JNK is up 6.2%. That’s a comfortable edge over the year’s second-best...
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Macro Briefing: 20 February 2019
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What Will Next Week’s Delayed Update On Housing Starts Reveal?
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Macro Briefing: 19 February 2019
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US Stocks Led Partial Rebound For Asset Classes Last Week
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Macro Briefing: 18 February 2019
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Book Bits | 16 February 2019
Marc Chandler
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Cool Video: Fox Business–Stocks and the US Consumer
I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18. In addition to these chart points, I am concerned that the S&P 500 has rallied more than 10% in the first half of the first quarter. This is despite...
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US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes
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Investors Need Fresh Incentives
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Dollar Drifts Lower
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Dollar Bulls may Turn Cautious
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Drivers, While Marking Time
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Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm
Mish’s Global Economic
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Frivolous Petition Says “Sell Montana to Canada for $1T” to Reduce National Debt
A frivolous petition on Change.Org proposes selling Montana to Canada to "eliminate" the national debt. It seems the person who wrote the petition is totally clueless about the national debt. It's about $22 trillion and it will grow about $1 trillion a year because we have $1 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. Alternatively, the petition sponsor recognized that and simply wanted to make the idea as absurd as possible....
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Nice Action in Gold!
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EU Pokes Trump Again, This Time Over Huawei’ s 5G Technology
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Two New Green Deals Flushed Down the Toilet After Huge Taxpayer Losses
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Redbook Retail Index Confirms Commerce Department December Retail Collapse
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Seven UK MPs Split from Labour Party Over Brexit
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Commerce Study Deems “European Cars a Threat to US National Security”
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 29-30, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on January 29-30, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these...
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Federal Open Market Committee reaffirms its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 18-19, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 7-8, 2018
BK Asset Management
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Dollar – Past its Prime?
Dollar – Past its Prime? Daily FX Market Roundup February 19, 2019 Investors are selling US dollars ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. This move should not be a surprise to our readers as we talked about how the greenback is past its prime The economy is slowing and two of the most important measures for the Fed (retail sales and CPI) retreated further last week. While equity market traders were happy that another government shutdown was...
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Dollar – Real Progress or False Promises?
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Dollar Holds Firm But How is the US Consumer?
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China Data Fuel Comm Dollar Pop
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5 Reasons for EURO’s Decline
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NZD – What to Expect from RBNZ
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USDJPY Breaks 110, EUR Below 1.13 – What’s Next?
Calculated Risk
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Existing Home Sales for January: Take the Under
The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for January at 10:00 AM on Thursday, February 21st.The consensus is for 5.05 million SAAR, up from 4.99 million in December. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will reports sales of 4.92 million SAAR for January and that inventory will be up 6.6% year-over-year. Based on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be below the consensus for January.Housing economist Tom...
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California Existing Homes in January: "Home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years"
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FOMC Minutes: "A variety of considerations that supported a patient approach to monetary policy"
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Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales down 12% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
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AIA: "Strong start to 2019 for architecture billings"
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
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Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Epsilon Theory
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The Zeitgeist | 2.20.2019
This is our feature of the 10 (or so) most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected, highly similar) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles, or articles we think are most interesting, or articles we agree with. But if you’re going to read 5-10 stories when you start your day, these are the ones that are most connected to the financial news that got published today. Barclays fraud trial: ex-chairman ‘not aware’ of GBP280m...
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The Zeitgeist | 2.19.2019
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C.A.F.
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The Alchemy of Narrative
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The Zeitgeist | 2.15.2019
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Duck and Cover
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The Zeitgeist | 2.14.2019
Charles Hugh Smith
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Let’s Face It: The U.S. Constitution Has Failed
Elections provide the bread-and-circuses staged drama that is passed off as democracy. Despite the anything-goes quality of American culture, one thing remains verboten to say publicly: the U.S. Constitution has failed. The reason why this painfully obvious fact cannot be discussed publicly is that it gives the lie to the legitimacy of the entire status quo. The Constitution was intended to limit 1) the power of government over the citizenry...
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Which One Wins: Central Planning or Adaptive Networks?
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Credit Exhaustion Is Global
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Sometimes the Best Solution Is To Leave Things As They Are
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What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession?
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What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?
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The Corporate Lemmings Who Rushed into Mobile/Social Media Ads Are Running off the Cliff
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Wages continued to improve through January
- by New Deal democrat One item I didn’t get around to in the last couple of weeks is how wages performed as of January’s jobs report. And the basic answer is: pretty good!The first graph below shows real, inflation adjusted average wage gains for non-managerial workers measured YoY: As of January they were up +1.9%. This is the best showing except for a few months in 2015. As Jared Bernstein has shown, the “real” gains in wages have a lot...
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It’s Presidents Day, and we’re still basically flying blind on the eoncomy
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Weekly Indicators for February 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha
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Industrial production face-plants, but hold the DOOOM for now
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More signs of a slowdown: initial claims and real retail sales
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The 2017 GOP tax scam may hurt the economy this spring
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December JOLTS report: mixed but with strong positive revisions
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Could Trump Have a Point about Rate Hikes?
(Cross-posted from The Next New Deal at The Roosevelt Institute.) At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter point. The move, while widely expected, represented a clear rebuke to President Trump, who has repeatedly urged the Fed to keep rates low. He took to Twitter after the move to attack Fed head Jerome Powell as a golfer who has no touch (“he can’t putt”)—strong words in the president’s social...
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“On money, debt, trust and central banking”
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Strange Defeat
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In Jacobin: A Demystifying Decade for Economics
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How to Read a Regression
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Now Playing Everywhere
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Acquisitions as Corporate Money Hose
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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18/2/19: U.S. Treasuries: Not Finding Much Love in Foreign Lands
In recent months, I have been warning about the cliff of new bonds issuance that is coming for the U.S. Treasuries in 2019, pressured by the declining interest in U.S. debt from the rest of the world. December 2018 figures are a further signal reinforcing the importance of this warning (see U.S. yields comparatives here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2019/02/15219-still-drowning-in-love-for-debt.html).In December 2018, foreign buyers cut...
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16/2/19: Deep Crises: past, present, future?
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16/2/19: Trump-o-rama taking a dip?
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15/2/19: Still Drowning in Love [for Debt]…
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15/2/19: Nothing to Worry About for those Fiscally Conservative Republicans
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15/2/19: Euro area is sliding toward recession
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7/2/19: S&P on Irish Banks Outlook
Bull Markets
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The stock market’s momentum is extremely strong. What’s next for stocks
The S&P 500’s nonstop rally continues, and is nearing several resistances at the 2800-2813 level. Meanwhile, the stock market is overbought for the first time in a long time. Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on...
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So many things are not “confirming” the stock market’s rally
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February 19, 2019: fundamental outlook for stocks
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Ultimate guide to trend following
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Market outlook: price action is bullish for stocks, but macro is weakening
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How to become a better investor or trader: the news
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After 8 terrific weeks for stocks, what’s next
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Something Different About This One
In Japan, they call it “powerful monetary easing.” In practice, it is anything but. QQE with all its added letters is so authoritative that it is knocked sideways by the smallest of economic and financial breezes. If it truly worked the way it was supposed to, the Bank of Japan or any central bank would only need it for the shortest of timeframes. That would be powerful stuff. Instead, in June last year the narrative shifted (again)....
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Getting Back Up To Speed On Loss Of Speed in US Economy
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Not Even PBOC Supports Yuan’s Reserve Role
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VIDEO – Weekly Update – February 15, 2019
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Chart of The Week: TICsense
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Where It All (Should Have) Started
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China’s Big Money Gamble
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there a New Message from the Markets?
We have a light economic calendar and a short week. We’ll get earnings reports from another 10% of S&P 500 companies. With plenty of time and little fresh information, I expect plenty of pure speculation about the state of the market. This commentary will have a broad theme, with pundits asking: Is there a new message from the markets? In my last edition of WTWA I took note of the growing emphasis on technical indicators, even for...
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Stock Exchange: Where Do You Go For Trading Ideas?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the 200-day Moving Average?
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Stock Exchange: Are The Momentum Bulls High?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Looking Beyond the Obvious
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Stock Exchange: Knowing When to Walk Away
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Test of Investing Acumen
Curious Cat
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
This post lists the 20 publicly traded companies with the largest market capitalization as of today. Since my November 2017 list of the 20 most valuable stocks the value of 2 companies increased by more than $150 billion and 4 companies value decreased by over $100 billion. In the 20 most valuable companies list there are 13 USA companies, 4 Chinese companies and 1 each for Korea, Netherlands and Switzerland. The remaining 15 companies with...
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Treasury Inspectors General
The Honorable Laura WertheimerInspector GeneralFederal Housing Finance Agency400 7th Street, SWWashington, DC 20219 The Honorable Eric M. ThorsonInspector GeneralTreasury Department1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.Washington, DC 20220 Dear Inspector General Wertheimer and Inspector General Thorson: We write to request an investigation into whether officials at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) or Office of the Comptroller of ...
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A Late Valentine? Millionaires Stop Paying into Social Security on February 18th
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Are Your Workplace Policies Working? Use This Calculator to Measure Your Company’s Turnover Costs
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Time to Increase Social Security Benefits for Low and Moderate Wage Earners
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Oversight of Congressional Oversight: Assessing the House Ways and Means Committee
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How the Trump Team Might Make Some Hedge Funds Solvent Again
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, January 2019
Economic Populist
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the quarter, revised from the 3.5% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as growth in personal consumption, fixed investment, and exports were revised lower than was previously reported even as the change in our inventories was a greater addition to GDP than in...
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
Naked Capitalism
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Brexit and Labour’s Spat: Everything That’s Wrong with The Independent Group
Yves here. The implications of the defection of seven Labour Party members over their distaste for Jeremy Corbyn go beyond Brexit, which means it’s over my pay grade. Nevertheless, the fact that no one from the Tories joined them and that the UK already has a perfectly good centrist party, the Lib Dems, that have been hemorrhaging Parliament seats suggests that this exodus is more of a blow, or perhaps only a dent, to Labour than the start of...
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Links 2/19/19
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Bill Black: Modern Monetary Theory Is On the March (#MMT)
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CalPERS Chief Investment Officer Ben Meng Lied About Private Equity to State Senator Dr. Richard Pan at Joint Pension Committee Hearing
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CalPERS’ Management Continues to Lie to Its Board and Beneficiaries About Its Private Equity Scheme
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The Financial Crisis Was a Minsky Moment but We Live in Strange Times
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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/18/2019
Lance Roberts RIA
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Yesterday’s Perfect Recession Warning May Be Failing You
Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last forty years, it is no wonder that the topic grows in stature as the difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield approaches zero. Unfortunately, much of...
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A Change In Value
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5-Things To Do Before Retirement
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Technically Speaking: You Carry An Umbrella In Case It Rains
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Delinquencies Are Surging As $1.6 Trillion Student Loan Bubble Inflates
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The Fed Conundrum – Data Or Markets?
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Is It A (Bull) Trap? 02-15-19
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple.
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 7.7%
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World Markets Update
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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Lower Interest Rates, Rising Consumer Confidence…”
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 10.7% YTD
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Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Yield at 2.66%
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: All Measures Down WoW
The Barrel Blog
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The Middle East’s petrochemicals push signals oil’s future
This is the second installment in a three-part series exploring oil, plastics demand and sustainability. Plastics and chemicals will account for the largest share of global crude demand growth by 2030, and a third wave of petrochemicals expansion underway in the Middle East is looking to cash in on the trend, as investment into downstream petroleum industries will become a critical demand driver for oil markets in the future. Industrialized...
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Consumer push for sustainability masks massive growth in plastic demand
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Russia’s OPEC alliance brings risks and rewards for Putin
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China oil imports, Nigeria elections and Venezuela sanctions: Commodity and energy news highlights
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Brexit could lead to divergence between EU, UK sanctions against Russia
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Insight: Aluminum costs push Japan’s brewers to put new beer in new bottles
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In the LOOP: Narrowing Dubai/LOOP spread dampens US sour crude exports
Eurostat News Releases
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Production in construction down by 0.4% in euro area
Download PDF
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.0 bn
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GDP up by 0.2% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area
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Industrial production down by 0.9% in euro area
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Share of renewable energy in the EU up to 17.5% in 2017
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Energy consumption in the EU increased by 1% in 2017
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Volume of retail trade down by 1.6% in euro area
Commodity Blog
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Copper Posts Sixth Straight Gain on US-China Trade Optimism
Copper futures will record their sixth consecutive gain midweek as investors remain optimistic that the US and China are on the cusp of striking a new trade agreement. The industrial metal, which relies heavily on demand from the world’s second-largest economy, has posted double-digit advancements so far this year, even throughout the global economic turmoil. March copper futures rose $0.04, or 1.42%, to $2.915 per pound at 16:18 GMT...
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Bitcoin Ready for Another Run at $4,000
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Soybean Plunges As Chinese Imports Fall, EU Threatens US
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Metals Gain Despite Strong Dollar, Crude Oil Retreats from Year’s Highs
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Gold Climbs to Two-Week High on Dollar, Fed Pause
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Commodities Technical Analysis, February 18th — February 22nd
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Gold Stabilizes After Dollar Falls on Dismal US Retail Sales
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2018
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.3 billion in November, down $6.4 billion from $55.7 billion in October, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $49.3 Billion -11.5%° Exports: $209.9 Billion -0.6%° Imports: $259.2 Billion -2.9%° Next release: To be determined. Report delayed due to recent...
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U.S. International Investment Position, Third Quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2018 (revised estimate)
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Personal Income and Outlays, November 2018
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State Quarterly Personal Income, 3rd quarter 2018
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U.S. International Transactions, 3rd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product for U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), 2017
Humble student of the markets
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What gold tells us about stock prices
Mid-week market comment: The SPX has risen roughly 400 handles since the December 24 bottom, and it is approaching its 200 dma. Can the market stage a sustainable rally above this key hurdle? Golden clues For some clues, we can turn to the price of gold. The top panel of the chart below shows that gold prices tend to have an inverse correlation with stock prices, and that relationship is especially true now. When stocks rise, gold falls,...
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Demographics isn’t destiny = History rhymes
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Recession ahead? Fuggedaboutit!
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Dismounting from the market rodeo
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A buying opportunity for Chinese stocks?
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How worried should you be about China?
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How far can this pullback run?
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
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Can free-cash handouts help society? | The Economist
This is not going away. Listened to a Ray Kurzweil podcast the other night. He said UBI will be ubiquitous by 2030. [embedded content]
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China trade deal is near and Beijing will get everything it wanted – CNBC
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Happy Presidents Day: Jefferson’s Message To Millennials
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QOTD: Et toi?
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Week In Review – February 15
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Sector ETF Performance – February 15
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Global Risk Monitor – February 15
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Lipstick on a Pig: US Federal Government Debt
In this video podcast, I review the latest developments in the US federal government's budget and I explain why I disagree with the proponents of Modern Monetary Theory who claim that deficits and debt don't matter as long as the government borrows in its own currency and inflation remains subdued.
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Bonds: Doing the Unexpected
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Recession: Waiting for Godot
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Stocks: Something for Worriers
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Video Podcast: Bull-Bear Ratio Is Bearish, Which Is Bullish!
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On the Demographic Path to Human Self-Extinction
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Video Podcast: Is the Fed Done?