Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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COT Blue: Distinct Lack of Green But A Lot That’s Gold
Gold, in my worldview, can be a “heads I win, tails you lose” proposition. If it goes up, that’s fear. Nothing good. If it goes down, that’s collateral. In many ways, worse. Either way, it is only bad, right? Not always. There are times when rising gold signals inflation, more properly reflation perceptions. Determining which is which is the real challenge. Corroboration and consistency are paramount. Gold had been rising in impressively...
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China Doves
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Eurodollar University – The Overview
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The Eurodollar, Unfortunately, Is What Is Rebalancing China’s Services Economy
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Federal Funds Rate Is Communicating (Again)
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PMI Eruption
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Easter Doesn’t Change Curve Crazy Retail Sales
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018
Wholesale trade; mining; and information were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.2 percent increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. For the wholesale trade industry group, real value added—a measure of an industry’s...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019
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U.S. International Investment Position, 4th quarter and Year 2018
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Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2018
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U.S. International Transactions, 4th quarter and Year 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2019
BK Asset Management
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Why Traders Didn’t Buy USDJPY After Strong Data
Why Traders Dumped USDJPY on Strong Data US Retail Sales Soar, Implications for USD Daily FX Market Roundup April 18, 2019 This morning’s US economic reports blew the expectation of the most optimistic economist surveyed by Bloomberg. Consumer spending rose 1.6% in the month of March, which was the strongest pace of growth since September 2a017. The consensus forecast was for a 1% rise and the highest prediction called for 1.3% increase. The...
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More Bad News For Euro
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Even Good Data Boost Lift FX Volatility
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Another Seesaw Day for FX as China Data Lifts Risk -But Will the Move Reverse?
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Euro Rejects 1.13, Bears Remain in Control But…
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Aussie Under Pressure as RBA Hints at Ease
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Easter Week – Breakouts or Fake outs?
Bull Markets
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It’s been a quick recovery for the stock market to all-time highs
The S&P made an all-time high today on a daily CLOSE $ basis. On an intraday basis (daily HIGH $), the S&P is just 4 points from an all-time high. Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day. New highs...
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April 23, 2019: fundamental outlook for stocks
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Where will stocks go next? Let’s look at various factors
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Seasonality Models: description and logic, rules, performance
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Seasonality, cycles, and overfitting models
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Several short term bearish factors for the stock market
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April 18, 2019: fundamental outlook for stocks
Calculated Risk
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in March
From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. In the past month, the indexes increased in 37 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 58....
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New Home Prices
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
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Earlier Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April"
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A few Comments on March New Home Sales
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New Home Sales increased to 692,000 Annual Rate in March
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Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Can Writers Guild Members Rewrite Private Equity’s Greedy Script?
It’s widely understood that private equity firms make money for themselves and their investors by loading the companies they buy with debt, selling off assets, and gaming the tax system. But, there is another, less well-known way that private equity enriches itself when it takes over a traditional company. While relations between management and labor ...
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Paid Family and Medical Leave Is a Bargain Even Low-Wage Workers Can Afford
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, March 2019
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The Overlooked Executive Branch Scandal of the Trump Era — Independent Agencies
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Mueller’s End Ratchets Up Pressure on Richard Neal to Request Trump’s Taxes
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RDP Requests Record of Contracts between BlackRock and Key Federal Agencies
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Good Medicine: Universal Paid Sick Leave
Charles Hugh Smith
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If “Getting Ahead” Depends on Asset Bubbles, It’s Not “Getting Ahead,” It’s Gambling
Given that the economy is now totally and completely dependent on inflating asset bubbles, it makes no sense to invest for the long-term. Beneath the endlessly hyped expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) of the past two decades, the economy has changed dramatically. The American Dream boils down to social and economic mobility, a.k.a. getting ahead through hard work, merit and wise investments in oneself and one's family. The...
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America’s Forced Financial Flight: Fleeing Unaffordable and Dysfunctional Cities
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How Empires Fall: Moral Decay
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The Next Financial Crisis Won’t Be Caused by Fraud: This Time Will Be Different
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The World’s Hypocritical Silence as China Imprisons its Ethnic Muslims En Masse
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Notre Dame and the Identity of France
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No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix
Commodity Blog
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Copper Dips on Slumping Growth, Capped by Supply Outlook
Copper futures are sliding on Tuesday on slumping economic growth in key markets, including China and the eurozone. But the dip was capped by several bullish supply outlooks that suggest a market deficit could lead to a breakout in copper prices in the coming months. The red metal has had a strong start to 2019, despite the paucity of labor disruptions and significant growth. May copper futures tumbled $0.0075, or 0.26%, to $2.89 per pound...
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Bitcoin Breaks $5,500 Barrier and Looks for Further Gains
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Gold Steadies at Four-Month Low Amid Weaker Dollar, Mixed Equities
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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Platinum & Oil Price for 22 – 26 April 2019
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Crude Oil Jumps More than 2% as US Ends Iran Sanction Waivers
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Commodities Technical Analysis, April 22nd — April 26th
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Video: Charts of Gold as of April 17, 2019
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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23/4/19: Income per Capita and Middle Class
New research reported by the Deutsche Bank Research shows that, on average, there is a positive (albeit non-linear) relationship between the per capita income and the share of middle class in total population: Source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D42GiWNXkAMpID2.png:largeThere is an exception, however, although DB's data does not test formally for it being an outlier, and that exception is the U.S. Note, ignore daft comparative reported in...
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23/4/19: Property, Property and More Property: U.S. Household Wealth Bubble
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22/4/19: At the end of QE line… there is nothing but QE left…
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15/4/19: One order of “Bull & Sh*t” for the U.S. Labor Market, please
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10/4/19: Rewarding Reckless Risk Pricing, Again
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10/4/19: Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves and External Debt
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10/4/19: How US Tax Inversions Affect Shareholder Wealth
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Why is the Market so Quiet?
The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action, as shown in our updates below. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry. They are all scratching their heads in wonderment, asking: Why is it so quiet? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I suggested that the general focus...
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Stock Exchange: What Is Your Trading Timeframe Now?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Will Q1 Earnings Reveal About Economic Strength?
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Stock Exchange: Is It Time To Lever Up On Market Momentum?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Are We Near the End of the Economic Cycle?
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Dash of Insight 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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Stock Exchange: You Risk How Much Per Trade?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.45%.
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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
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Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Moderate Growth in April
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New Home Sales Up 4.5% in March, Beats Forecast
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FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.3% in January, At Real Record High
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 2.6%
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
In this video podcast, I discuss why the stock market is freaking out over the inversion of the yield curve.
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Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
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Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
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Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
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Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”
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Should Stock Buybacks Be Banned?
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Lipstick on a Pig: US Federal Government Debt
Eurostat News Releases
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Government debt down to 85.1% of GDP in euro area
Download PDF
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Seasonally adjusted government deficit increased to 1.0% of GDP in the euro area
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Euro area government deficit at 0.5% and EU28 at 0.6% of GDP
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.9 bn
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Annual inflation down to 1.4% in the euro area
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Production in construction up by 3.0% in euro area
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Industrial production down by 0.2% in euro area
Global Macro Monitor
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One Of Our Best Trades Ever – Mike Trout
The first time we ever saw Mike Trout play baseball it was like watching the real-life version of The Natural, and thought someday people will say, There goes [Mike Trout] the best there ever was in this game – Roy Hobbes, The Natural Moreover, the dude is such a nice and decent guy. “What’s nice about it is Mike is such a good person,” Jim Quinn, the former mayor of Millville [Trout’s hometown], told NBC Sports. “You get some of these...
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The Most Successful “Garage Band” Companies
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Mueller Report: Hollywood Can’t Make This Stuff Up
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BFTP: How Sustainable Is Earnings Growth?
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Remain In A Landslide
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Predictions Market On Fed Nominees
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Impeachment Market – The Only Market That Matters Now
Humble student of the markets
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Why the yield curve panic is a buying opportunity
There was some confusion from readers in response to my bullish pivot in yesterday’s post (see How the market could melt up). Much of the confusion was attributable to the bear porn that has been floating around since last Friday from the inverted yield curve when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month. One example came from Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense, though Carlson did qualify his analysis that the timing of a stock...
Read more » -
How the market could melt-up
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Sector selection guide for sentiment, momentum, and contrarian investors
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FOMC preview: Peak dovishness?
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Recession jitters: The new fashion?
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The secret of cryptocurrencies revealed!
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From oversold to overbought to…
Lance Roberts RIA
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Technically Speaking: Running On Empty
Stop by Apple Or Google Play stores and search “MyWorth” TODAY. Running On Empty “Running On Empty” was an iconic song about life on the road as a traveling musician. The 1977 live recording, which became a 1978 hit for Jackson Browne, is considered one of true representatives of Heartland Rock, and a concert favorite. When Jackson Browne was interviewed about the song by Rolling Stone Magazine, at the time he was recording the album “The...
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Auto Sales Aren’t Nearly As Strong As Reported
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The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO): 04-19-19
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Contrarian Alert: “Is Inflation Dead?” Makes The Cover Of Businessweek
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Reality Vs Fantasy: What To Watch For This Earnings Season
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The Smart Money Are Bullish On Volatility Again
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The Bankers Vig and the Price we Pay: The Economic Cost of Repealing Glass-Steagall
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 4/22/2019
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Trade “China Isn’t Cheating on Trade” [Peter Beinart, The Atlantic]. “From Elizabeth Warren, who earlier this year claimed that China has “weaponized its economy,” to Marco Rubio, who last year tweeted that the Chinese aim to “steal & cheat their way to world dominance,” leading Democrats and Republicans [including Trump, of course] describe China’s economic practices as uniquely malevolent and getting...
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Happy Earth Day 2019
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Links 4/22/19
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New York City’s Newly Passed Green New Deal, Explained
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Boeing’s 737 Max Debacle: The Result of a Dangerously Pro-Automation Design Philosophy?
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John Helmer: The Julian Assange Case Now Puts the US on Trial in a British Court – Is There a Get-Out-of-Jail Card for Assange?
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Boston Meetup Reminder for This Thursday, April 25; Announcing Location for Wednesday May 1 Milwaukee Meetup (and Need RSVPs!), Minneapolis Meetup on for Thursday May 2
The Barrel Blog
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US Gulf sour crudes rise on cancellation of Iran sanctions waiver
Medium sour crude values have found fresh support, following an announcement on April 22 that the US will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. May barrels of USGC sour crude benchmark Mars were heard talked between $4.80/b and $5.05/b above WTI cash in the morning of April 22 and then later heard traded at WTI plus $5/b, up from the previous assessment of WTI plus $4.55/b on April 18. Also on the day of the...
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Energy traders brace for growing battle over shrinking margins: Fuel for Thought
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Saudi Arabia leads Middle East’s rush to renewables, but policies lag behind ambition
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US oil output could see change of pace as producers rein in spending
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Squeezed global sugar market looks to holy grails and black swans
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Alaskan oil developers face technical challenges to exploit new plays: Fuel for Thought
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Energy and commodities highlights: Sanctions, US clean energy goals, LNG’s second wave
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.45%.
Read more » -
Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
-
Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
-
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Moderate Growth in April
-
New Home Sales Up 4.5% in March, Beats Forecast
-
FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.3% in January, At Real Record High
-
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Up 2.6%
The Barrel Blog
-
US Gulf sour crudes rise on cancellation of Iran sanctions waiver
Medium sour crude values have found fresh support, following an announcement on April 22 that the US will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. May barrels of USGC sour crude benchmark Mars were heard talked between $4.80/b and $5.05/b above WTI cash in the morning of April 22 and then later heard traded at WTI plus $5/b, up from the previous assessment of WTI plus $4.55/b on April 18. Also on the day of the...
Read more » -
Energy traders brace for growing battle over shrinking margins: Fuel for Thought
-
Saudi Arabia leads Middle East’s rush to renewables, but policies lag behind ambition
-
US oil output could see change of pace as producers rein in spending
-
Squeezed global sugar market looks to holy grails and black swans
-
Alaskan oil developers face technical challenges to exploit new plays: Fuel for Thought
-
Energy and commodities highlights: Sanctions, US clean energy goals, LNG’s second wave
Eurostat News Releases
-
Government debt down to 85.1% of GDP in euro area
Download PDF
Read more » -
Seasonally adjusted government deficit increased to 1.0% of GDP in the euro area
-
Euro area government deficit at 0.5% and EU28 at 0.6% of GDP
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.9 bn
-
Annual inflation down to 1.4% in the euro area
-
Production in construction up by 3.0% in euro area
-
Industrial production down by 0.2% in euro area
Commodity Blog
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Copper Dips on Slumping Growth, Capped by Supply Outlook
Copper futures are sliding on Tuesday on slumping economic growth in key markets, including China and the eurozone. But the dip was capped by several bullish supply outlooks that suggest a market deficit could lead to a breakout in copper prices in the coming months. The red metal has had a strong start to 2019, despite the paucity of labor disruptions and significant growth. May copper futures tumbled $0.0075, or 0.26%, to $2.89 per pound...
Read more » -
Bitcoin Breaks $5,500 Barrier and Looks for Further Gains
-
Gold Steadies at Four-Month Low Amid Weaker Dollar, Mixed Equities
-
Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold, Silver, Platinum & Oil Price for 22 – 26 April 2019
-
Crude Oil Jumps More than 2% as US Ends Iran Sanction Waivers
-
Commodities Technical Analysis, April 22nd — April 26th
-
Video: Charts of Gold as of April 17, 2019
BEA
-
Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018
Wholesale trade; mining; and information were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.2 percent increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. For the wholesale trade industry group, real value added—a measure of an industry’s...
Read more » -
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019
-
U.S. International Investment Position, 4th quarter and Year 2018
-
Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2018
-
U.S. International Transactions, 4th quarter and Year 2018
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2019
Humble student of the markets
-
Why the yield curve panic is a buying opportunity
There was some confusion from readers in response to my bullish pivot in yesterday’s post (see How the market could melt up). Much of the confusion was attributable to the bear porn that has been floating around since last Friday from the inverted yield curve when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month. One example came from Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense, though Carlson did qualify his analysis that the timing of a stock...
Read more » -
How the market could melt-up
-
Sector selection guide for sentiment, momentum, and contrarian investors
-
FOMC preview: Peak dovishness?
-
Recession jitters: The new fashion?
-
The secret of cryptocurrencies revealed!
-
From oversold to overbought to…
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
-
One Of Our Best Trades Ever – Mike Trout
The first time we ever saw Mike Trout play baseball it was like watching the real-life version of The Natural, and thought someday people will say, There goes [Mike Trout] the best there ever was in this game – Roy Hobbes, The Natural Moreover, the dude is such a nice and decent guy. “What’s nice about it is Mike is such a good person,” Jim Quinn, the former mayor of Millville [Trout’s hometown], told NBC Sports. “You get some of these...
Read more » -
The Most Successful “Garage Band” Companies
-
Mueller Report: Hollywood Can’t Make This Stuff Up
-
BFTP: How Sustainable Is Earnings Growth?
-
Remain In A Landslide
-
Predictions Market On Fed Nominees
-
Impeachment Market – The Only Market That Matters Now
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
In this video podcast, I discuss why the stock market is freaking out over the inversion of the yield curve.
Read more » -
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
-
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
-
Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”
-
Should Stock Buybacks Be Banned?
-
Lipstick on a Pig: US Federal Government Debt