Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
-
Federal Funds Is Not Falling With The Rest of Them
It’s difficult a lot of times to easily and succinctly describe what’s going on inside a monetary system that; 1. Spans the entire world, easily jumping across if not erasing geographical boundaries; 2. Is located in the shadows, leaving us with no direct data or statistics; 3. Often works in a dizzying array of complexities. I have to believe that even a competent and talented writer would have a lot of trouble with this eurodollar thing. The...
Read more » -
Baoshang Isn’t China’s Lehman, So Why Does April 17 Show Up All Over Global Markets?
-
Japan’s Bellwether On Nasty #4
-
Globally Synchronized (Bond Yields)
-
Behind The Blame Game, A Nastier #4
-
The Science of Rate Cuts
-
Anesthesia Right On Schedule
BEA
-
U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2019 and Annual Update
Current-Account Balance The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product in the first quarter, down from 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The $13.5 billion decrease in the...
Read more » -
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019
-
Personal Income and Outlays, April 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)
-
Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2017
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018 (preliminary)
BK Asset Management
-
USDJPY Breaks 107.00 as Iran Spurns Diplomacy
Market Drivers June 25, 2019 USDJPY test 107.00 Kiwi data beats Nikkei -0.43% Dax -0.53% UST 10Y 2.006% Oil $58/bbl Gold $1429/oz. Europe and Asia: NZD Trade Balance 264M vs. 200M North America: No Data USDJPY broke below the 107.00 figure for the first time since the flash crash at the start of the year as Iran hardened its stance stating that no diplomatic solution would be possible. In fact, the Iranian statement was particularly harsh...
Read more » -
FX: Here’s 5 Things to Watch This Week
-
In FX – the Buck Still Gets No Respect
-
Is EURO’s Rally Sustainable?
-
Dollar Ready for Bounce?
-
This is How Low USDJPY Can Go
-
Dollar Beaten Across the Board – What Happens Now?
Bull Markets
-
Is there too much speculation in this “everything rally”?
Everything is rallying right now. Stocks, bonds, gold, cryptocurrency. With gold flying high and Bitcoin at $11k, is there too much speculation in this “everything rally”? Today’s headlines: Can the Fed cut rates with stocks flying high? Dow’s breadth Transports are lagging industrials VIX is making higher lows Gold’s volatility and momentum Bitcoin’s momentum Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference,...
Read more » -
Sharpe Ratio for our models
-
Data for our trading models
-
Market outlook: Everything is rallying. What’s next
-
Weekly update: our models & indices right now
-
June 21, 2019: leading indicators macro update
-
Stocks made a new high very quickly. What’s next
Calculated Risk
-
By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
By request, here is an update to the chart showing market performance under Presidents Trump and Obama.Note: I don't think the stock market is a great measure of policy performance, but some people do - and I'm having a little fun with them.There are some observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success. My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the...
Read more » -
Schedule for Week of June 23, 2019
-
BLS: Unemployment Rates in May at New Series Lows in Texas and Vermont
-
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
-
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
-
Comments on May Existing Home Sales
-
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.34 million in May
Center for Economic and Policy Research
-
Could a Progressive President Expand Medicaid and Medicare by Increasing the Poverty Line?
The Trump administration is considering a unilateral change to how the government measures poverty. If adopted, the change would reduce by millions the number of people eligible for Medicaid, parts of Medicare, SNAP, and other benefits over the next 10 years. One of the questions this raises is whether a progressive president could make the ...
Read more » -
What Dads Really Want for Fathers’ Day: Medicare for All
-
Oversight Targets Abound in Betsy Devos’ Education Department
-
Labor Market Policy Research Reports, May 2019
-
May Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
-
Recession or Not, There Will Be pain
-
Upward Trend in Wage Inequality among AAPI Workers in the US Continues
Charles Hugh Smith
-
The Human Cost of “Recovery”: We’re Burning Out
The asymmetries are piling up and we're cracking under the weight. Judging by the record-high stock market and the record-low unemployment rate, the "recovery" has reached new heights of prosperity. Academics and think-tankers viewing the global economy from 40,000 feet are brimming with policies to bring the remaining laggards into the booming economy. You can imagine them rubbing their hands with glee as they quote statistics...
Read more » -
The Lessons of Rome: Our Neofeudal Oligarchy
-
The Fed’s Casino Is Giving Away Free Gambling Chips (But Only to the Super-Rich)
-
Dear Central Bankers: Prepare to be Swept Away in the Next Wave of Populism
-
America’s Managerial Elite Has Failed, But We Can’t Get Rid of Them
-
How Much of Your “Wealth” Is Hostage to Bubbles and Impossible Promises?
-
Misplaced Pride: Most of the “Middle Class” Is Actually Working Class
Commodity Blog
-
Soybean Jumps As Crop Planting Expected to Be Higher
Soybean futures climbed higher on Tuesday as a major weather service predicted a substantial jump in soybean planting this week. This comes as US soybean export inspections surged in Chinese shipments for the week ending June 20. Soybean prices have been on a tear in the last month, climbing nearly 7% and bringing the crop into positive territory on the year, which is welcomed news for American farmers. August soybean futures tacked on $0.05,...
Read more » -
Crude Oil Loses Gains on Supply Concerns
-
Gold Extends Rally to Six-Year High on Economic ‘Uncertainties’, Geopolitical Tensions
-
Crude Oil Gains as US Plans Sanctions Against Iran
-
Commodities Technical Analysis, June 24th — June 28th
-
Bitcoin Breaks $10,000 Price for First Time Since March 2018
-
Positive Fundamentals Allow Crude Oil Maintain Rally
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
-
20/6/19: Say Goodbye to the Trump Bump in Corporate Investment
Trump's investment boom... is vapour now. And that is despite the fact that tariffs on China, threats of tariffs against Mexico, mini trade war with Canada and threats of a trade war with Europe - all supporting domestic investment all along...
Read more » -
20/6/19: The ‘Mental’ Bits of Economic Fundamentals
-
19/6/19: In an Alternate Ireland, Captain Leary…
-
18/6/19: In May, 12 month forward probability of a U.S. recession has jumped up
-
18/6/19: OECD-led Tax Reforms: A Prescription for a Less Competitive Economy
-
18/6/19: Obama v Trump: Jobs Creation
-
17/6/19: Lose-Lose-and-Lose-Some-More Trade War: Trumpism in Action
Dash of Insight
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can US/China Trade Talks Save the Global Economy?
This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we can expect some advance leaks. Everyone will be wondering: Can a US/China trade truce boost the global economy? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I questioned the...
Read more » -
Stock Exchange: Brilliant Trading Or Is The Market Just Up?
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?
-
Stock Exchange: Do You Evaluate Your Trading Mistakes?
-
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank on the Fed?
-
Can the Market Rally Without FAANG?
-
Stock Exchange: Lemons, Lemonade Or Rip Van Winkle?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
-
World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 24, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 22.02% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.75%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 17.34%. Coming in last is Tokyo's Nikkei with a gain of 6.35%.
Read more » -
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Jumps 11.5%
-
Understanding the CFNAI Components
-
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: “Expansion Continues but Pace Slows”
-
Chicago Fed: “Index points to a pickup in economic growth in May”
-
S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Record High This Week
-
Underlying Inflation Gauge: May Update
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Running Out of Workers?
I am not convinced that the demand for labor was hard hit by Trump’s escalating trade war during May. Granted, payroll employment was weak last month, rising just 75,000 (Fig. 1). That compares poorly to the average gains of 186,250 per month during the first four months of this year and 223,250 per month during 2018. The problem may be that all the anecdotal evidence of labor shortages is actually constraining the growth of payrolls. Perhaps...
Read more » -
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
-
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
-
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
-
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
Eurostat News Releases
-
Debt mainly held by non-residents in half of the EU Member States
Download PDF
Read more » -
Price levels of food ranged from 66% of the EU average in Romania to 130% in Denmark in 2018
-
Wide variation of consumption per capita across EU Member States
-
Production in construction down by 0.8% in euro area
-
Annual inflation down to 1.2% in the euro area
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €15.7 bn
-
Annual growth in labour costs at 2.4% in euro area
Global Macro Monitor
-
How Tariffs Affect Nontradeables
25 Jun – 11:28:47 AM [RTRS] (LEN.N) – LENNAR CORP SAYS U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS HAS BEEN A HEADWIND; ON AVERAGE, THE IMPACT FOR LENNAR IS ABOUT $500 PER HOME – CONF CALL — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 25, 2019 Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
Read more » -
US and China relationship has forever changed
-
Negative Yields Are Pure Gold
-
If Mexico doesn’t stem migrant flow? – BBC News
-
Class Act
-
The Innate Angst Of Inequality
-
When 50 Percent Of U.S. Households Were Insolvent
Humble student of the markets
-
Peak fear, or Cold War 2.0?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...
Read more » -
Range-bound, with a bullish lean
-
Imminent war with Iran?
-
Tariff Man vs. Dow Man
-
Bottoming
-
Exploring the trade stalemate scenario
-
Why investors should look through trade tensions
Lance Roberts RIA
-
Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part 2
In Part I, we discussed the problems with the “savings” side of the equation as it relates to building wealth. It is always interesting reading article comments as they are generally full of excuses why saving money and building wealth can’t be done. The general thesis is that as long as you have social security (which is threatening payout cuts over the next decade) and/or a pension (which only applies to 15% of the country currently,) then...
Read more » -
Why Interest Rates Don’t Need To Rise Much To Cause Recessions Now
-
What The Fed Said, Didn’t Say, & What Happens Next 06-21-19
-
#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Past Week
-
Trump’s Trade War Is Paralyzing Business
-
SECURE Act: Big Changes & What It Means For Your Retirement
-
Gold At The Top Of A Huge Base
Naked Capitalism
-
Links 6/22/19
German firefighters rescue squirrel stuck in manhole cover AP Seals can copy human speech and sing Star Wars theme tune, new study says Sky News. n=3. It’s Younger and Cooler Than a Carbon Tax The Atlantic. The GND. US gasoline prices rise after blasts at Philadelphia refinery FT Report: Utility’s Negligence to Blame for Los Angeles Methane Disaster Earth Justice Syraqistan Trump Says He Was ‘Cocked and Loaded’ to Strike Iran, but Pulled Back...
Read more » -
1 In 6 Insured Hospital Patients Get A Surprise Bill For Out-Of-Network Care
-
Trade Wars in the Global Value Chain Era
-
2:00PM Water Cooler 6/21/2019
-
Last Hurrah in NYC! Free Books, Free Drinks, Other Giveaways, and Good Conversation! Please Come by on Sunday June 23
-
Place-Based Economic Conditions and the Geography of the Opioid Overdose Crisis
-
Links 6/21/19
The Barrel Blog
-
Energy and commodities highlights: Oil market tensions, European gas flows, Mozambique’s LNG plans
For the second time in as many weeks, oil markets were jolted by events in the Middle East, with prices jumping on reports that Iran had shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz on June 20. Crude prices continued to rise on June 21, on fears that the US and Iran could be headed towards a military confrontation. The latest incidents could affect flows of oil and products from the Persian Gulf, with traders and shipowners saying they were...
Read more » -
Insight Conversation: Mark Gyetvay, Novatek
-
Oil traders have bigger worries than a new Hormuz tanker war
-
Norway’s oil industry hides behind flagship project: Fuel for Thought
-
Energy and commodity highlights: Tanker attacks, biofuels and oil, spiraling naphtha prices
-
Exchange’s IT malfunction sends jitters through European spot power markets
-
US crude oil exports buoyed by widening WTI/Brent spread
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
-
World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 24, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 22.02% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.75%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 17.34%. Coming in last is Tokyo's Nikkei with a gain of 6.35%.
Read more » -
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Jumps 11.5%
-
Understanding the CFNAI Components
-
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: “Expansion Continues but Pace Slows”
-
Chicago Fed: “Index points to a pickup in economic growth in May”
-
S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Record High This Week
-
Underlying Inflation Gauge: May Update
The Barrel Blog
-
Energy and commodities highlights: Oil market tensions, European gas flows, Mozambique’s LNG plans
For the second time in as many weeks, oil markets were jolted by events in the Middle East, with prices jumping on reports that Iran had shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz on June 20. Crude prices continued to rise on June 21, on fears that the US and Iran could be headed towards a military confrontation. The latest incidents could affect flows of oil and products from the Persian Gulf, with traders and shipowners saying they were...
Read more » -
Insight Conversation: Mark Gyetvay, Novatek
-
Oil traders have bigger worries than a new Hormuz tanker war
-
Norway’s oil industry hides behind flagship project: Fuel for Thought
-
Energy and commodity highlights: Tanker attacks, biofuels and oil, spiraling naphtha prices
-
Exchange’s IT malfunction sends jitters through European spot power markets
-
US crude oil exports buoyed by widening WTI/Brent spread
Eurostat News Releases
-
Debt mainly held by non-residents in half of the EU Member States
Download PDF
Read more » -
Price levels of food ranged from 66% of the EU average in Romania to 130% in Denmark in 2018
-
Wide variation of consumption per capita across EU Member States
-
Production in construction down by 0.8% in euro area
-
Annual inflation down to 1.2% in the euro area
-
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €15.7 bn
-
Annual growth in labour costs at 2.4% in euro area
Commodity Blog
-
Soybean Jumps As Crop Planting Expected to Be Higher
Soybean futures climbed higher on Tuesday as a major weather service predicted a substantial jump in soybean planting this week. This comes as US soybean export inspections surged in Chinese shipments for the week ending June 20. Soybean prices have been on a tear in the last month, climbing nearly 7% and bringing the crop into positive territory on the year, which is welcomed news for American farmers. August soybean futures tacked on $0.05,...
Read more » -
Crude Oil Loses Gains on Supply Concerns
-
Gold Extends Rally to Six-Year High on Economic ‘Uncertainties’, Geopolitical Tensions
-
Crude Oil Gains as US Plans Sanctions Against Iran
-
Commodities Technical Analysis, June 24th — June 28th
-
Bitcoin Breaks $10,000 Price for First Time Since March 2018
-
Positive Fundamentals Allow Crude Oil Maintain Rally
BEA
-
U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2019 and Annual Update
Current-Account Balance The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product in the first quarter, down from 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The $13.5 billion decrease in the...
Read more » -
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019
-
Personal Income and Outlays, April 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)
-
Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2017
-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019
-
Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018 (preliminary)
Humble student of the markets
-
Peak fear, or Cold War 2.0?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...
Read more » -
Range-bound, with a bullish lean
-
Imminent war with Iran?
-
Tariff Man vs. Dow Man
-
Bottoming
-
Exploring the trade stalemate scenario
-
Why investors should look through trade tensions
Soberlook
-
Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
Read more » -
The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
-
What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
-
The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
-
The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
-
What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
-
Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
-
Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
Read more » -
Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
-
What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
-
Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
-
Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
-
Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
-
How Tariffs Affect Nontradeables
25 Jun – 11:28:47 AM [RTRS] (LEN.N) – LENNAR CORP SAYS U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS HAS BEEN A HEADWIND; ON AVERAGE, THE IMPACT FOR LENNAR IS ABOUT $500 PER HOME – CONF CALL — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 25, 2019 Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
Read more » -
US and China relationship has forever changed
-
Negative Yields Are Pure Gold
-
If Mexico doesn’t stem migrant flow? – BBC News
-
Class Act
-
The Innate Angst Of Inequality
-
When 50 Percent Of U.S. Households Were Insolvent
Dr. Ed Yardeni
-
Running Out of Workers?
I am not convinced that the demand for labor was hard hit by Trump’s escalating trade war during May. Granted, payroll employment was weak last month, rising just 75,000 (Fig. 1). That compares poorly to the average gains of 186,250 per month during the first four months of this year and 223,250 per month during 2018. The problem may be that all the anecdotal evidence of labor shortages is actually constraining the growth of payrolls. Perhaps...
Read more » -
Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
-
S&P 500 Run, Forrest, Run!
-
Freaking Out Over Inverted Yield Curve
-
Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
-
Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
-
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!