Macro
Zerohedge
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One Last Warning For The U.S. Shale Patch
Authored by Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com, Oil price lost 44% of its value late last year. That price collapse was a signal to tight oil companies to stop over-producing. The message will be repeated until action results. From October 3 to December 24 2018, WTI fell from $76.41 to $42.53 (Figure 1). Figure 1. The ...
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To Avoid Trump’s Wrath GM Announces $300 Million Ohio Investment
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Dow Dumps 400 Points From Overnight Highs, Erases Thursday’s Buying-Panic
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Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins
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Trump Reportedly Taps Former WSJ Ed Board Member To Fill Vacant Fed Seat
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Politics Has Failed; Now Central Banks Are Failing
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“Losing Faith” – Turkish Lira Crashes As Central Bank Unexpectedly Tightens Policy
The Capital Spectator
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How Does The Stock Market’s Recovery Compare With History?
The sharp rebound in the US stock market this year has cast doubts on various calls by models and pundits that a bear market started in the late-2018 plunge. But the rally hasn’t deterred bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach: the DoubleLine Capital CEO doubled down and told CNBC yesterday that the S&P 500 is still in a bear market despite closing on Thursday (Mar. 21) at the highest level since Oct. 9. Gundlach’s outlook aligns with The Capital...
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Macro Briefing: 22 March 2019
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Dovish Fed Keeps US Bond Rally Bubbling
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Macro Briefing: 21 March 2019
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China Continues To Lead Global Rebound In Stocks This Year
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Macro Briefing: 20 March 2019
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US Q1 GDP Growth On Track To Slow Again As Fed Meeting Begins
Marc Chandler
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Dreadful EMU PMI and US Machinations Rival Brexit for Attention
Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from the post-FOMC reversal to close a new 5-month high yesterday, led by technology. Financials were the only main sector to retreat. The large equity markets in Asia, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan all advanced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed its initial gains and is nursing a small loss on the week. US shares were little changed but are being dragged down by the reversal in...
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Dovish Fed Sends Global Yields Lower, but Little Succor for Stocks
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FOMC: Above Trend Growth Requires Continued Monetary Support
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Brexit Drama Continues but Fed Moves to Center Stage
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Third Vote on Withdrawal Bill Scuppered Until after EU Summit
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Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited
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Dollar Correction may Continue
Mish’s Global Economic
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Illinois’ Demographic Collapse: Get Out As Soon As You Can
Illinois is losing residents as inbound migration and births are on the decline and outbound migration is on the rise. In a WirePoints special report on demographics, Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner explore Illinois’ Demographic Collapse. Since the turn of the century, Illinois has been in the midst of a perfect demographic storm. Residents are leaving the state in record numbers. The number of Americans moving into Illinois has hit new...
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Two-Week Can-Kicking Extension to April 12 if No Deal, May 22 With Deal
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T-8 and Counting: EU Agrees to Extend Article 50 to May 22, Possibly April 11
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Where Defense Spending Dollars Go: Top Ten States
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Theresa May Compared to Trump: May Implodes in Parliament Speech
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22 Yield Curve Inversions: Recession at Hand, Buy Gold
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Fed Pledges “Patience”, Dot Plot Suggests No Hikes in 2019
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 29-30, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on January 29-30, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these...
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Federal Open Market Committee reaffirms its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 18-19, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 7-8, 2018
BK Asset Management
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Is Europe on the Verge of a Recession?
Market Drivers March 22, 2019 EZ PMIs crater Brexit uncertainty continues Nikkei 0.09% Dax -0.05% Oil $59/bbl Gold $1310oz. Europe and Asia: EUR GE PMU Manufacturing 44.7 vs.48.0 North America: CAD Retail Sales 8:30 CAD CPI 8:30 USD Existing Homes Sales 10:00 Horrible flash PMI data out of Europe rocked the FX market on the final day of dealing for the week, sending EURUSD 50 pips lower in less than an hour as traders started to fear that the...
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Dollar U-Turns, GBP Crashes Will the Reversal Last?
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Dollar Crashes on FOMC, BoE & Brexit Next
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3 Things to Watch for From the Fed
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Markets Mark Time Ahead of Fed
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Brexit Vote Blocked – Is GBP Headed for 1.30?
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Aussie Pops Stops at .7100 as Risk On Continues
Calculated Risk
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Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February
CR Note: It is possible that some of the increase in the delinquency rate in February was due to late tax refunds.From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Bucking Historical Seasonal Trend, February Sees Delinquencies Rise; Prepayments Up 11 Percent, Driven by Softening Interest Rates• Delinquencies rose by 3.7 percent in February, the first February increase in 12 years• Despite the monthly rise, delinquencies remain more than 9.5...
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Existing Home Sales for February: Upside Surprise (Surprise for others)
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Philly Fed Mfg "Improved" in March
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
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Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales down 7% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
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FOMC Projections and Press Conference
Epsilon Theory
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The Zeitgeist – 3.22.2019
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it. But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. So we got that goin’ for us,...
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The Zeitgeist – 3.21.2019
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Admiring the Problem
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The Zeitgeist – 3.20.2019
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The Zeitgeist – 3.19.2019
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Good Luck!
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The Zeitgeist – 3.18.2019
Charles Hugh Smith
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Politics Has Failed, Now Central Banks Are Failing
With each passing day, we get closer to the shift in the tide that will sweep away this self-serving delusion of the ruling elites like a crumbling sand castle. Those living in revolutionary times are rarely aware of the tumult ahead: in 1766, a mere decade before the Declaration of Independence, virtually no one was calling for American independence. Indeed, in 1771, a mere 5 years before the rebellion was declared, the voices promoting...
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Which Nations Will Crumble and Which Few Will Prosper in the Next 25 Years?
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The Neutered Fed Is Politically Trapped
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While the Nation Fragments Socially, the Financial Aristocracy Rules Unimpeded
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The Coming Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix: Credit Exhaustion
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A Precarious Revolution Is Brewing
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What Sort of “Democracy” Do We Have If Everyone’s Goal Is Maximizing Their Government Swag?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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The widened Panama Canal is disrupting internal US transportation patterns
- by New Deal democratThe newly-widened Panama Canal opened to traffic in late 2016. Since then, there have been several ongoing disruptions in how goods are transported from suppliers in Asia to their ultimate markets in the US, including affects on seaports, trucking, and rail.This post is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and helps reward me for my work.
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Over 50% of all wealth in the US is inherited not earned
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The government shutdown may have caused a mini-recession
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Preventing Presidential autocracy: thoughts on reining in Executive power
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Weekly Indicators for March 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha
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Industrial production weak, while JOLTS employment remains strong
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Initial jobless claims not at warning levels yet
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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The Economic Case for the Green New Deal
(Co-authored with Sue Holmberg and Mark Paul, and cross-posted from Forbes. This is a teaser for a project the three of us are working on at the Roosevelt Institute on the economics of the Green New Deal.) Almost overnight, the idea of a Green New Deal has won over environmental activists and many lawmakers. An all-out national mobilization to decarbonize the economy has a natural appeal to those who see climate change as an immediate,...
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Could Trump Have a Point about Rate Hikes?
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“On money, debt, trust and central banking”
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Strange Defeat
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In Jacobin: A Demystifying Decade for Economics
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How to Read a Regression
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Now Playing Everywhere
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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12/3/19: S&P500 Concentration Risk over 10 years
More on increasing concentration risks in the U.S. equity markets: Goldman Sachs estimates that almost 1/4 of total return to S&P500 over the last 10 years came from just 10 stocks: Of these, Apple alone accounted for almost 1/5th of total return to S&P500. 22% of total return was accounted for by ICT sector.
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10/3/19: Irish Residential Construction Sector 2018: A New ‘Recovery’ Low
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6/3/19: Expectations Sand Castles and Investors
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4/3/19: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: January-February Trend
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4/3/19: S&P 500 Share Price Support Scams are a Raging Trend
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1/3/19: U.S. PMI is not at a Crisis levels
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1/3/19: Australia is the New Ireland: How Property Hype Inflates Financial Bubbles
Bull Markets
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Similarities between the stock market today and previous bull market tops
The stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 now within 3% of its all-time highs. Meanwhile, various leading economic indicators are showing similarities to previous bull market tops. Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market...
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March 21, 2019: fundamental outlook for stocks
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The Fed acknowledges “recession risks”. Run for the hills!
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Is there complacency in the stock market right now?
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The stock market today is eerily similar to 1937
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A better valuation indicator for the U.S. stock market
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Market outlook: it’s been a terrific start to the year for stocks. What’s next
Alhambra Investment Partners
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February 2019 PBOC/RMB Update
This will serve mostly as an update to what is going on inside the Chinese monetary system. The PBOC’s balance sheet numbers for February 2019 are exactly what we’ve come to expect, ironically confirmed today on the domestic end by the FOMC’s dreaded dovishness. Therefore, rather than rewrite the same commentary for why this continues to happen I’ll just link to prior discussions (here’s another). Overnight SHIBOR today was the highest since...
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Why The Doves? FOMC Projections Begin To Sense Euro$ #4
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Where Doves Are Dreaded
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Barbarians Revisited
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Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways
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Negative TIC Is A Rare Level of Negative
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Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: Are You Trading On Psychological Tilt?
The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following: discuss an important issue for traders;highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas;feature advice from top traders and writers; andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Hint at a New Course?
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Stock Exchange: Is The Market’s Momentum Back?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Slowing Chinese Growth Spark a Global Recession?
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Stock Exchange: Who Moved My Cheese?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is “Baked Into” Current Market Prices?
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Stock Exchange: Realty Income’s Near-Term Momentum, Long-Term Risks
Curious Cat
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
This post lists the 20 publicly traded companies with the largest market capitalization as of today. Since my November 2017 list of the 20 most valuable stocks the value of 2 companies increased by more than $150 billion and 4 companies value decreased by over $100 billion. In the 20 most valuable companies list there are 13 USA companies, 4 Chinese companies and 1 each for Korea, Netherlands and Switzerland. The remaining 15 companies with...
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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RDP Requests Record of Contracts between BlackRock and Key Federal Agencies
With just under $6 trillion in assets under management (as of year-end 2018) BlackRock is the largest money manager in the world. Virtually unheard of only a decade ago, it has now grown into one of the most powerful forces in financial markets and politics alike. Central to this ascendance was its risk management software, ...
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Good Medicine: Universal Paid Sick Leave
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Coalition Asks Pelosi: Make Ways & Means Committee Do Its Job
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Speaker Pelosi: We Urgently Need Energetic House Ways & Means Committee Oversight
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Why Has the Share of US Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force Fallen Behind Other Economies?
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Understanding Challenges of AAPI Women to Achieve Equal Pay
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Revolving Door Project Reacts to Richard Neal’s Announcement: Late and Weak
Economic Populist
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the quarter, revised from the 3.5% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as growth in personal consumption, fixed investment, and exports were revised lower than was previously reported even as the change in our inventories was a greater addition to GDP than in...
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 3/21/2019
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Trade UPDATE “A data point seen as the bellweather for global trade just tanked — and ‘the floor is not yet in sight'” [Business Insider]. “South Korean exports, widely viewed as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the world economy, slumped 4.9% year-on-year to $28 billion in the first 20 days of March…. South Korea’s export data is one of the first major economic indicators released each month. Even 20-day export...
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Brexit Delay Will Not Postpone Deglobalisation
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Links 3/21/19
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Brexit: Opening the Seals
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The #MMT Case for Progressive Taxes
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U.S. ‘’Oil Weapon’’ Could Change Geopolitics Forever
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2:00PM Water Cooler 3/20/2019
Lance Roberts RIA
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Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking
In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. The key language from yesterday’s announcement was: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of...
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Why The Fed Keeps Propping Up The Market
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Health Is Part Of Your Financial Plan
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Has This Cycle Reached Its Tail?
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Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles
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After Two Of The Greatest Bull Markets In U.S. History, Why Are Boomers So Broke?
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The Goldilocks Warning 03-16-19
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index: “…Expanding in Near-Term”
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February increased to 111.5 from 111.3 in January. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 105.9, up from 105.7 the previous month.
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Improved Growth in March
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Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 9K, Better Than Forecast
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
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Weekly Heating Oil Prices
The Barrel Blog
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Energy and commodities highlights: Political change in oil states, LNG in Europe, trans-Atlantic freight
Spring 2019 is ushering in important political changes that are being watched for their impact on oil and other commodities. In Algeria new leadership was promised recently, following widespread protests. That’s fuelled discussion about the future of the country’s oil and gas industry. Then on March 19, Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced his resignation after nearly 30 years in power. The surprise...
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Houston’s shipping bottleneck could curb expansion of major US oil and petchems hub
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Big oil’s electric dreams could create new energy cartels
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In the LOOP: Third VLCC of the year departs Louisiana, bound for South Korea
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Tariffs frustrate US-China trade in plastic resins and finished products
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IMO 2020 may not solve crude oil quality riddle: Fuel for Thought
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Energy and commodities highlights: CERAWeek, US sanctions and EU energy laws
Eurostat News Releases
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A third of EU trade is with the United States and China
Download PDF
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Production in construction down by 1.4% in euro area
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Annual growth in labour costs at 2.3% in euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €1.5 bn
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Euro area and EU28 job vacancy rates at 2.3%
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Annual inflation up to 1.5% in the euro area
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Highest proportion of government expenditure goes to social protection and health
Commodity Blog
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Gold & Silver Continue to Rally on Fed Policy Outlook
Gold and silver extended today yesterday’s rally that followed the news that the Federal Reserve dropped its plans to hike interest rates further this year. An interesting fact is that the US dollar was bouncing after yesterday’s losses, but the precious metals remained unfazed. Some market analysts speculated that the falling US Treasury yields can explain the metals’ rally. Another supporting factor for the metals was the fact that some...
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Natural Gas Flat on Modest Decline in US Inventories
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Commodities Rally on Wednesday Thanks to Positive Fundamentals
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Sugar Slides After Hitting Two-Week High
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Crude Oil Hangs Near 2019 Highs on Hopes for OPEC Cuts Extension
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Copper Rises on Supply Deficit Forecasts, Chinese Stimulus
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Gold Firms Above $1,300 Ahead of Fed Meeting
BEA
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Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States 2016
The Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account (ACPSA) released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that arts and cultural economic activity, adjusted for inflation, increased 2.9 percent in 2016. That compares with a 5.4 percent increase in 2015 (table 1). Arts and cultural economic activity accounted for 4.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), or $804.2 billion, in 2016. Information...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2018
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Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018; Personal Income, January 2019
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Initial Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 3rd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd quarter 2018
Humble student of the markets
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Defying gravity
Mid-week market update: For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a possible market stall ahead (see Peering into 2020 and beyond). So far, the pullback has yet to materialize, though risk levels continue to rise as the SPX approaches its resistance zone at 2800-2810. Here are some reasons why the market might be defying gravity. The bull case From a technical analysis viewpoint, the bull case can be summarized by healthy...
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China is healing
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Peering into 2020 and beyond
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Nearing peak good news?
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The Art of the Deal meets the Art of the Possible
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Here comes the growth scare
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Why there will be a US-China trade deal by March 1
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
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FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT
Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019. The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of...
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Trump Trade Deal Market Tease While China Balks On 737 Max
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QOTD: Fading Breton Woods = Instability – Arminio Fraga
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Third Brexit deal vote could be held the day before Brexit
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A French Cat Named Brexit
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Inching Toward A Second Brexit Referendum
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Father of Great Gatsby Curve, Alan Krueger, R.I.P.
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Stock Market Singing: “The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow”
In this video podcast, I discuss the odd weakness in real GDP growth and in the Economic Surprise Index during the first quarter of the past few years. I agree with Annie (and the stock market) that the sun will come out tomorrow.
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Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
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Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
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Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”
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Should Stock Buybacks Be Banned?
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Lipstick on a Pig: US Federal Government Debt
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Bonds: Doing the Unexpected