Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Bubbles and Balance Sheets, Demanded (Money/Credit) Supply
The term “balance sheet recession” is one that had come up more often a little more than half a decade ago. At the same time everyone at the Fed, especially Bill Dudley, was wondering why QE had kept coming up (way) short of every one of its goals, some of them began to speculate about this other thing. If the Great “Recession” had triggered one, then monetary policy would have looked as helpless as it was looking.What is a balance sheet...
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 27, Part 3: Duck and Cover, The July Consequences
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Small But Real Progress Carrying The Yen Carry Trade Into the Light
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A Major Estate Planning No-No
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Brief Summary Of Where Things Stand Getting Closer to Q4
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Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid
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A Good Time For Some Q & A: Bank Reserves, Treasury Auctions, MMT, and the Monetary Resolve
BEA
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Personal Income by State, 2nd Quarter 2020 and Year 2019
State personal income increased 34.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2020, an acceleration from the 4.1 percent increases in the first quarter, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 1). Personal income increased in every state and the District of Columbia ranging from 15.3 percent in the District of Columbia to 76.3 percent in Massachusetts. Increases in personal current transfer...
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U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2020
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2020
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Personal Income and Outlays, July 2020
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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)
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Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2020
BK Asset Management
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Market’s Ponder if the COVID Rebound is Done
Markets rangebound Lack of catalysts into weekend trade Nikkei 0.51% Dax -0.29% UST 10Y 0.668 Oil $40 Gold $1870/oz BTCUSD $10653/oz. Asia and the EU EUR Consumer Confidence 103.4 vs. 100.8 North America Open USD Durable Good 8:30 Its been a very quiet rangebound night of trade with a slight risk-off tone in equities while currencies remained moribund as well with most market participants in wait and see mode as fresh catalysts were absent....
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A Feeble Recovery in Currencies
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Risk Off Pervades as Markets Seek Stimulus
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EURO Outlook – Is 1.15 Next?
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Is Bad Economic Data Actually Good for the Pound?
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Dollar Rally Sends these Currencies to 1 Month Lows
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Stocks Stabilize; Cable Hits a 2 Month Low
Bull Markets
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Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Our portfolio
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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September 26 COVID-19 Test Results
The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 933,873 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 47,733 positive tests.Almost 21,000 Americans...
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Schedule for Week of September 27, 2020
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in August, Highest Since January 2013
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September 25 COVID-19 Test Results
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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 5% Year-over-year Decline
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Q3 GDP Forecasts
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Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August
CEPR Blog
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Re-Fund the EPA
The American Prospect See article on original site The wildfires and hurricanes plaguing the United States in the last month reflect the massive societal implications of climate change. Understanding the importance of this moment, Vice President Joe Biden has proposed a $2 trillion climate plan designed to transition the economy away from greenhouse gas emissions. The plan calls for an emission-free power sector by 2030, as well as an...
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Your Periodic Reminder that CEOs Maximize CEO Pay, Not Shareholder Returns
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Lo que la OEA le hizo a Bolivia
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What a Defiant Democratic Party Looks Like
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It’s Not Vaccine Nationalism, It’s Vaccine Idiocy
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Are Red State Governors Getting Their People Killed to Help Donald Trump’s Re-election Chances?
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Juicios políticos y vetos electorales en la batalla por la democracia en Ecuador
Charles Hugh Smith
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The Road to Nowhere: Whatever Can’t Be Politicized Ceases to Exist
Just as time is a one-way arrow, "the politicization of everything" is a one-way road to dissolution and collapse. The essence of any Totalitarian society is the politicization of everything, as everything must be either supporting the status quo or it's a threat to the status quo. There is no middle ground in a Totalitarian society and so everything--literally everything-- must be politicized to assess its true nature of being...
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The Silent Exodus Nobody Sees: Leaving Work Forever
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Inflation and “Socialism-Lite” Are Just What the Billionaires Want
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The Bill for America’s $50 Trillion Gluttony of Inequality Is Overdue
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“Inflation” and America’s Accelerating Class War
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This Is Why Inflation Will Rip Everyone’s Face Off
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Sacrifice for Thee But None For Me
Commodity Blog
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Oil Futures Remain Under Pressure from Demand Concerns
Futures for crude oil logged a decline today. While the losses were not massive, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent grades of crude were heading for a 3% weekly loss. With the increasing number of coronavirus cases across the world, investors are worried that governments will reinstall travel restrictions and freeze business activity to prevent further spread of the virus. Such measures will result in a huge drop in oil consumption....
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Copper Poised for Big Weekly Loss on Dollar Strength, Disappointing Data
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Gold Manages to Rebound Despite Strong Dollar
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Natural Gas Extends Rally As Supply Build Comes in Lower Than Market Forecasts
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Gold & Other Metals Tumble Under Pressure from Strong Dollar
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Video: Gold Prices Will Go Up – Why Does Ray Dalio Think So?
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Video: Silver in Middle of Week September 21-25, 2020
South China Morning Post
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Taiwan’s job market outlook gets top marks due to island’s effective control of coronavirus
[unable to retrieve full-text content]The outlook for Taiwan’s labour market is one of the brightest in the world, given the island’s highly effective efforts to control the coronavirus pandemic, a top labour placement agency has said. International staffing agency ManpowerGroup this month gave Taiwan the best employment outlook of 43 markets around the world. Its net employment outlook for the fourth quarter grew 11 percentage points from...
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Debt woes of one of China’s top cities highlighted by first-of-its-kind bond default
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China property developer follows Huawei with job cuts in Australia amid souring Beijing-Canberra ties
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China unveils ‘strategic emerging industries’ plan in fresh push to get away from US technologies
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China’s surging corn prices blamed on speculators as Beijing plays down fears of grain shortage
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China’s rapid yuan rise and wave of hot money inflows prompt concerns of asset bubbles and inflation
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China’s carbon neutral energy pledge adds more weight to 14th five-year plan for 2021-25
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims
Updating my charts for the continued unemployment claims:The latest data is covering the period through September 12, 2020.On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, there were 13,355,586 Americans with continued unemployment claims in the week of September 12, 2020, an increase of 212,869 on the week prior, but 9,438,559 down on the COVID19 peak reached in the week of May 9, 2020. At the lowest point in pre-COVID expansion period, weekly continued...
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True Economics 2020-09-26 15:11:09
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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics
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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia
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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher
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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27
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25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths
Curious Cat
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Finding Great Investments Keeps Getting Harder
In some ways investing recently has been pretty easy, anything you have bought (almost) goes up – and usually goes up a lot. But when looking for bargains to invest in, it just keeps getting more and more difficult in my opinion. Apple’s most recent earnings report was spectacular. However, unlike when similar things happened 8 years ago, when such great news allowed you to buy a great company cheaply even after great news now Apple went...
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Huge Growth in USA Corporate Debt from 2005 to 2020
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Retirement Portfolio Allocation for 2020
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Tencent Gaming
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Investors Need Some Accurate Evidence!
We have a light economic calendar with important data on home sales, jobless claims, and durable goods orders. None of these is likely to stimulate higher heartbeats. I expect politics and the election to get plenty of attention in the financial media, especially with an open Supreme Court seat as a new issue. These are important long-term issues, but the answers (which no one knows anyway) shed little light on key questions we all face right...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: The Start of Something Big?
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Nonfarm Payroll Response Rate Warning Continues — 7 Million Jobs Too High?
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Investing for the Long Run: Looking Beyond the Obvious
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Risky Business or Business as Usual?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Housing Market Changes Present an Investment Opportunity?
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Investing for the Long Run: The Challenge of a Bifurcated Market
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 2.1% YTD
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P 500 see-sawed this week, ending 0.63% below last Friday's close. The index is up 2.09% YTD and is 7.89% below its record close.
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index: August Update
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Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 0.4% in August
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Kansas City Fed Survey: Manufacturing Activity Slower in September
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New Home Sales Up 4.8% in August, Continuing Trend
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: 870K New Claims Last Week
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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The Glass Is More Than Half Full
We didn’t know how good we had it in 2019. Then the pandemic hit in 2020, and we all concluded that it will take many years before life will be as good as it was in 2019. Perhaps we’re too pessimistic. After all, 2019 was better than we realized at the time; perhaps we’ll return to the good life sooner than we realize now. Let’s examine that notion, starting with how good it was in 2019, then considering how we might rebound to the good old...
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What In the World Is Going On? A Recovery from the Global Lockdown Recession Is Underway.
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The Future Is Coming: The Technology Revolution of the Roaring 2020s
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Another Roaring Twenties May Be Ahead
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May the Bond Vigilantes Rest in Peace
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Welcome to Oz, Where MMT Enables the Government to Get Bigger!
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More Declarations of War Signal US-China Cold War Heating Up
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Why Am I Reading This Now?
To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever.‘Game of Thrones’ creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss are set to adapt the hit book trilogy for Netflix. The Senators’ accuse the streamer of “normalizing” China’s extra-judicial detention of over one million Muslims in Xinjiang,...
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Brave New World
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The Beachball Theory of Volatility
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The Welding Shut of the American Mind
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The UNITED States of America
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Many People Say
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ET Live! – 9.15.2020
Eurostat News Releases
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Regional diversity in the EU – how does your region fare?
Download PDF
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Annual inflation down to -0.2% in the euro area
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Production in construction up by 0.2% in euro area and down by 0.1% in EU
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €27.9 bn
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Euro area and EU job vacancy rate both at 1.6%
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Annual growth in labour costs at 4.2% in euro area
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Industrial production up by 4.1% in both euro area and EU
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
Following an extensive review that included numerous public events across the country, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday announced the unanimous approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates its approach to monetary policy and serves as the foundation for its policy actions. The updates reflect changes in the economy over the past decade and how policymakers are...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 9-10, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15, 2020
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Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy
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Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses
Global Macro Monitor
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Initial jobless claims rise slightly, while continuing claims decline – both at still awful levels
- by New Deal democratThis morning’s jobless claims report indicated that the trend of “less worse” news is at best continuing at a snail’s pace, and at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession.On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 28,527 to 824,542. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims rose by 4,000 to 870,000, slightly above their revised...
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Coronavirus dashboard for September 23: a pandemic course veering between panic and complacency
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Why compromise is so difficult: for most people, social issues are moral issues
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A macro view of how the 2020 Presidential election differs from 2016
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The 2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast: shift in the control of the Senate to democrats looks increasingly likely
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Weekly Indicators for September 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha
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August housing permits and starts bode well for 2021 economy
Humble student of the markets
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Winning the Pandemic Peace
This is war! A global war against the pandemic. Analysis from the IMF showed that government debt levels have spiked to levels not seen since World War II. How will the world win the peace in a post pandemic era, and what does that mean for investors? A hopeful view Morgan Housel at Collaborative Funds recently offered a hopeful and uplifting message. He believes that crises spurs panic driven innovations, and the pandemic provides an...
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Tech is eating the market
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Here’s a way to energize your portfolio
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Thermopylae bulls
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Fresh market highs! What now?
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Should you hop on the reflation train?
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Risk and reward: No guts, no glory?
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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“Monetary Policy in a Changing World”
While looking for something else, I came across this 1956 article on monetary policy by Erwin Miller. It’s a fascinating read, especially in light of current discussions about, well, monetary policy in a changing world. Reading the article was yet another reminder that, in many ways, debates about central banking were more sophisticated and far-reaching in the 1950s than they are today. The recent discussions have been focused mainly on what...
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Marx on the Corporation
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Announcement: Money and Things
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Posts in Three Lines, Coronavirus Edition
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Endless austerity, state and local edition
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Daily News Op-Ed: Why Is Governor Cuomo Still Trying to Cut Medicaid?
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Talk on the Economic Mobilization of World War II
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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#MacroView: The Astonishing Lack Of Value In Value
We have recently been discussing the lack of performance in value versus growth. Such is historically the case during the late-stage, exuberance-driven, bull markets. However, not everything classified as a “value stock” is necessarily a value. The problem today, more so than at any point previously, is the astonishing lack of value in “value.” Be careful about what you are paying for. pic.twitter.com/P6wkg2kb4O — Lance Roberts...
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 09-25-20
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Shedlock: Consumer Mood Darkens On Employment Prospects
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Executive – Employee Catch-22 Jeopardizes The Recovery
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Seth Levine: “Will NYC Die?” It’s Up To You.
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The Future Promise Of Value Versus The Allure of Growth
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Technically Speaking: Market Realized No Help Is Coming
Marc Chandler
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Macro as September Winds Down
The dollar began September extending its losses, but reversed higher and is winding down the month at its best levels against the euro and sterling in a couple of months. The Canadian and Australian dollars have approached last month's lows, and even the strong demand for the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan appeared to have dried up. The quarter-end adjustments are thought to require net dollar buying. The apparent contrast between the...
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Sentiment Remains Fragile Ahead of the Weekend
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Darkest Before Dawn
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Trying to Find Solid Ground
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Turn Around Tuesday?
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Risk Appetites Join Tokyo on Vacation
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The Charts: Ugly Equities and a Range Bound Dollar
Mish’s Global Economic
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An Easy Way to Solve the Mail-In Vote Dilemma
Vote As Soon as You CanOne thing Democrats could do—with basically no strategic downside—is to hammer home the message that voters should ask for and return their mail ballots as early as possible, which makes it more likely they'll be included in tallies on election night.In most states, mail ballots received by Election Day will be counted with other ballots on election day; in some states they'll even be counted first, in fact. It's ballots...
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Trump Taps Amy Barrett to Replace Ginsburg on the Supreme Court
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Durable Goods New Orders Spotlight a Manufacturing Slowdown
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The Fed Now Owns Over $2 Trillion in Mortgages, What Else?
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Trump’s $300 Lost Wage Assistance Benefit Ended in 10 States
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No Progress in Unemployment Claims for 4 Weeks
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New Home Sales Crush Forecasts in Surge to 14-Year High
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/25/2020
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 581 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we’re doing this fundraiser, what we’ve accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, investing...
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The Resilience of Naked Capitalism
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Andrew Cuomo Says NY Officials Will Do Separate Review of Any COVID-19 Vaccine
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Links 9/25/2020
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Continued Tight UK Self-Isolation Rules Continue to Hammer Tourism Sector
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Derision, Disbelief After Iowa Meatpacking Plant Where Hundreds Caught Coronavirus Fined Just $957
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Why Trump’s Promise to Save Manufacturing Was One He Never Intended to Keep
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Oil tankers face new normal amid pandemic and decarbonization drive
The global tanker shipping industry is likely to find a new normal in the medium term, with sales of second-hand ships taking center stage while orders for newbuilds slow down. Meanwhile, existing tanker companies may become bigger as ships change hands, or they may form pools to enable better bargaining with charterers, while shying away from ordering new ships. Uncertainties over how and when the coronavirus pandemic will end are partly...
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After Hin Leong: collapse of a Singaporean oil prodigy
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As jet fuel market craters, sustainable aviation fuel prepares for takeoff
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Insight from Shanghai: China chases new economic model with high-tech infrastructure push
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US gas-to-coal switching to boost coal consumption, help trim stocks
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The path to net zero: oil majors’ transition strategies and capital spending
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Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week
The Big Picture
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MiB: Pedro Earp, CMO of AB InBev
This week, we speak with Pedro Earp, Chief Marketing Officer at AB InBev as well as the director of the company’s Venture Capital fund, ZX Ventures Officer. AB InBev is the world’s leading brewer, selling about ~1/4 of all beer around in the world beer in more than 150+ countries with such brands as Budweiser, Corona, Stella, Becks, Hoegarden, Modela, and 100s others. Earp discusses how the company had to pivot once the pandemic lockdown...
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10 Weekend Reads
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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.25.20
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The 10 Most Useless Phrases in Finance
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10 Friday AM Reads
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1935 Auburn 851 SC Boattail Speedster
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Fear & Data
The Capital Spectator
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Book Bits: 26 September 2020
● The Wake-Up Call: Why the Pandemic Has Exposed the Weakness of the West, and How to Fix ItJohn Micklethwait and Adrian WooldridgeReview via The Independent“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. The situation must be serious when two of the West’s most prominent economic liberals begin a book by quoting Lenin.Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait and The Economist’s Adrian Wooldridge do exactly that in...
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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 25 September 2020
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Is The Post-Crash Reflation Trade Fading?
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Macro Briefing: 25 September 2020
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An Election Like No Other?
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Macro Briefing: 24 September 2020
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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 23 September 2020
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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Breakthrough Research On Severe COVID-19 Infections Opens Door To New Treatment
Breakthrough Research On Severe COVID-19 Infections Opens Door To New Treatment Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2020 - 22:00 So far, scientists have figured out that being male, elderly, and having underlying medical conditions can all raise risk factors for patients. But even patients who check all these boxes don't always experience serious symptoms. Scientists suspect that ...
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Revolution 2020: How Did We Get Here… And How Will It End?
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Beijing On Edge: China’s 2nd Largest Property Developer Plummets Amid Fears Of Imminent Liquidity Crisis
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Ann Coulter Outraged: ‘Innocent’ Until Proven ‘Trump Supporter’
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Philly Treasurer Indicted For Embezzlement & Using A “Sham Marriage” To Obtain US Citizenship
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Chinese Container Factories Are Now Sold Out Until February
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Salvation Army Launches Red Kettle Campaign Early To “Rescue Christmas”