Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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That’s The Thing About These Things, Time and Bondholders
That’s the thing about these eurodollar cycles; they aren’t short. We’re conditioned on the belief that the business cycle is, or at least the recession piece. According to convention, the economy peaks and within a relatively short period of time it falls apart. The shock and its very immediate aftermath. The lengths of time involved here in the post-crisis era have contributed so much to the confusion; as has the absence of official...
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If Some Economists Are No Longer Buying It
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When To Buy MediGap Insurance
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Curved Again
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Schaetze To That
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Zombie Insurance, Or Not
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Was It A Midpoint And Did We Already Pass Through It?
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2019
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.9 billion in December, up $5.2 billion from $43.7 billion in November, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $48.9 Billion +11.9%° Exports: $209.6 Billion +0.8%° Imports: $258.5 Billion +2.7%° Next release: March 6, 2020 (°) Statistical significance...
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Personal Income and Outlays, December 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 3rd Quarter 2019
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd Quarter 2019
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2019
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U.S. International Investment Position, 3rd quarter 2019
BK Asset Management
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After a Two Day Drubbing Markets Try to Stabilize
Futures rally to flat Euro keeps the bid Nikkei 0.79% Dax -1.37% UST 10Y 1.366% Oil $49/bbl Gold $1648/oz BTCUSD $9164 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: USD New Home Sales 10:00 After a two day drubbing, risk assets tried to stabilize in early European trade today with US stock index futures turning green after spending most of the Asian session underwater. Coronavirus news continued to dominate headlines as cases continued to rise in...
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Panic Selling Could Drive These Currencies to Fresh Lows
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Market Crash Hits FX. Here’s One Way to Stop the Selloff
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Virus Risk – Equities Sink Like a Stone but FX Unfazed
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Both Gold and Risk Rally – Why?
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AAPL Warning Sends Risk Tumbling
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Funda be Damned Risk On Rally Continues
Bull Markets
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Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Our portfolio
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased Modestly" in February
From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased ModestlyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity increased modestly, reaching positive territory for the first time in eight months.“Regional factory activity...
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Q4 GDP Unchanged at 2.1% Annual Rate
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000
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Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains "Back on the Gas"
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New Home Prices
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A few Comments on January New Home Sales
CEPR Blog
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Who Exactly Are Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg’s Bundlers?
Beginning in the fall, the Revolving Door Project was one of a handful of voices drawing attention to Democratic primary candidates’ failure to release the names of their most important fundraisers. In op-eds, newsletters, and across other forums throughout the fall we repeatedly made the case that this consequential information could not stay hidden. Why ...
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Dem Prez Candidates Fundraising from Union-Busting Lawyers
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Lifting Hold on Public Charge Rule Evokes Antebellum Slave Codes
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Year in Review – What Changed at Independent Agencies in 2019?
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Marital-Status Discrimination Reduces Fertility in China
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This is What Minimum Wage Would Be If It Kept Pace with Productivity
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Poverty, the Poor People’s Campaign, and the Free College Tuition Debate
Charles Hugh Smith
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How Many Cases of Covid-19 Will It Take For You to Decide Not to Frequent Public Places?
As empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences. How many cases of Covid-19 in your community will it take for you to decide not to frequent public places such as cafes, restaurants, theaters, concerts, etc? How many cases in your community will it take for you to decide not to take public transit, Uber/Lyft rides, etc.? How many cases in your community will it take for you to limit going to...
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No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why
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When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?
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When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Escape Being Bagholders
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Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
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Omens, Portents, Karma and the Mandate of Heaven
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The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff
Commodity Blog
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Bulls Take Charge As Bitcoin Crashes Below $9,000
Bitcoin bulls took charge in today’s trading, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency crashed from $9,250 at 13:00 GMT to a low of $8,708 at 18:00. Prices are down nearly 6% in the last 24 hours and analysts have indicated that the most likely short-term path is down. At current prices, Bitcoin is trading at its lowest prices since the end of January. The cryptocurrency rose from $7,200 at the turn of the year to $10,400 earlier this month,...
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US Crude Pares Gains As Smaller-Than-Expected Supply Unable to Lift Oil
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Bitcoin Slumps to $9,100 and Drags Cryptocurrency Market with It
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Soybeans Jump on Lower Stockpiles, Higher Exports
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Video: Weekly Commodity Forecast – Gold & Crude Oil for February 24–28, 2020
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Gold Eyes $1,700 As Coronavirus Triggers Safe-Haven Demand
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Bitcoin Still Trying to Take and Hold $10,000
South China Morning Post
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Coronavirus: China’s legal system ‘will be more lenient’ on private sector
[unable to retrieve full-text content]China’s judiciary has assured the country’s business sector that courts will be more reluctant to interrupt their operations while the economy weathers the impact from the coronavirus outbreak.“If the law allows more lenient measures, [we] should try not to use forceful measures that would limit their personal freedom and property rights,” Zhang Shuyuan, vice-president of the Supreme People’s Court, said...
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Coronavirus: China’s airlines offer domestic flights for as little as US$4 as industry struggles amid outbreak
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Coronavirus: China grants banks extra funding to spur loans to hard hit small businesses
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China’s car sales in January slide for 19th consecutive month as coronavirus puts brakes on economy
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Coronavirus: can Hong Kong firm regain trade war losses by turning Covid-19 crisis into an opportunity?
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China ‘fully expected’ to meet trade deal terms despite coronavirus, top US officials say
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Coronavirus: Doubts raised over whether Chinese companies can use force majeure to counter risks
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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25/2/2020: No, 2019-nCov did not push forward PE ratios to 2002 levels
Markets are having a conniption these days and coronavirus is all the rage in the news flow. Here is the 5 days chart for the major indices: And it sure does look like a massive selloff.Still, hysteria aside, no one is considering the simple fact: the markets have been so irrationally priced for months now, that even with the earnings being superficially inflated on per share basis by the years of rampant buybacks and non-GAAP artistry, the...
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23/2/20: Fake Data or Faking Data? Inflation Statistics
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23/2/20: The ‘Fundamentals’ of the Financial Markets Are Hardly Changed by the COVID2019, So Far…
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19/2/20: Facebook becomes another Ireland Inc’s reforms test case
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19/2/20: Early effects of the 2020 Berlin rent controls changes
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18/2/20: Irish Statistics: Fake News and Housing Markets
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14/2/20: Pandemics, Panics and the Markets
Curious Cat
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Retirement Portfolio Allocation for 2020
The markets continue to provide difficult options to investors. In the typical market conditions of the last 50 years I think a sensible portfolio allocation was not that challenging to pick. I would choose a bit more in stocks than bonds than the commonly accepted strategy. And I would choose to put a bit more overseas and in real estate. But if that wasn’t done and even something like 60% stocks and 40% bonds were chosen it would seem...
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Tencent Gaming
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett
We have a big economic calendar including important data on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and inflation. There will also be another round of housing news – two measures of prices, new home sales, and pending home sales. While it is not expected to change, the second estimate of Q4 GDP will be reported. While these economic reports will claim attention later in the week, we know how it will start. The punditry will be...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Too Late to Invest in Housing Stocks?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Coronavirus – Cause for Analysis or Paralysis?
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Weighing the Year Ahead: Positioning for 2020
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Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Earnings
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Time to Worry About Inflation?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Middle East Conflict Bring an End to the Bull Market?
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Q4 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The Second Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.1% (2.10% to two decimal places), mostly unchanged from 2.1% (2.12% to two decimal places) for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.1%.
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 8K
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Headline Durable Goods Orders Down 0.2% in January
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
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Weekly Heating Oil Prices
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New Home Sales Jumps 8% in January
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Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Government Measures To Stop COVID-19 Triggering Pandemic of Fear
Our rapid-response team at Yardeni Research first responded to the coronavirus outbreak in the Monday, 1/27 issue of our Morning Briefing, which was titled “Going Viral?” That was the next business day after the outbreak first hit the headlines on Friday, 1/24. Let’s review some of our initial assessments and the latest developments: (1) Panic attack #66 could be the one that causes a global recession and a bear market. In our 1/27 analysis,...
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Powell Says Economy Is ‘In a Very Good Place.’ Time To Worry?
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With Immunity to Coronavirus, US Stocks Melt Up with Impunity
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Fed on Hold as Inflation Remains Stubbornly Below Fed’s 2.0% Target
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Sinatra’s Stock Market: Fly Me to the Moon
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Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear
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How to Get YRI’s App
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Don’t Test, Don’t Tell
I believe that a healthy society should not have only one voice.Li Wenliang, Wuhan physician, born October 12, 1986, died February 7, 2020. Last night, I received a Twitter DM that included screenshots of an email that went out to staff at the UC Davis Medical Center. After checking for authenticity, I posted the screenshots in a tweet of my own. And that’s when, as the kids would say, it blew up. I want to highlight a...
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Covid-19 Cargo Cults
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Join Us. No, Really.
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The Fall of Wuhan
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Kitchen Sink It
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Thanksgiving
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ET Live! – 2.18.2020
Eurostat News Releases
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Annual inflation up to 1.4% in the euro area
Download PDF
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Production in construction down by 3.1% in euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €23.1 bn
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GDP up by 0.1% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area
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Industrial production down by 2.1% in euro area
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Volume of retail trade down by 1.6% in euro area
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Primary and final energy consumption still 5% and 3% above their 2020 targets
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2020
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on January 28-29, 2020. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10-11, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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Just As The Doctor Ordered
Don’t think its over, however…. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
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S&P’s Beastly Streak: Five Consecutive Red Candlesticks
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The Supply Chain Gangbangers
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The Stock Market’s Key GPS Coordinates
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Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!
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Stonks Finally Mugged By A Dose Of Reality
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How Broken Are The Markets? This Broken…
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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January durable goods orders show no important weakening
- by New Deal democratJust to update: neither initial jobless claims nor continuing claims met either of my thresholds for concern this week. Both are below their levels a year ago, and the four week average of initial claims is less than 5% above its lows for this expansion. Ordinarily I don’t pay too much attention to durable goods orders, because they are too volatile, but because consumer durable goods orders are an important marker for...
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The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast
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New home sales complete data confirming rebound
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Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition
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An updated look at transportation
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Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 22, 1869
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Weekly Indicators for February 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha
Humble student of the markets
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Time to sound the all-clear?
Mid-week market update: I am old enough to remember that one of the burning question for the January FOMC meeting was be whether the Fed would make a technical adjustment on Interest Paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) by 5 basis points. (They did). Those were simpler times! The stock market rose relentlessly, day after day, and all was well in the land. Now that stock prices have turned back up again as I had suggested (see Buy for the Turnaround...
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Buy for the Turnaround Tuesday bounce?
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A market stall?
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How my Sorcerer’s Apprentice trade got out of hand
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Cruisin’ for a bruisin’
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Froth everywhere!
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Energy: Value opportunity, or value trap?
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Teaching notes on capitalism
I just put up a some new notes on my teaching pages, a brief handout on capital and capitalism. The goal of this isn’t, of course,to give a comprehensive overview of what capital means or what capitalism has been historically. I just want to introduce students to the basic terms and concepts that they’ll encounter in the sort of Marxist and Marx-influenced historians I assign in my economic history class — Sven Beckert, Immanuel Wallerstein,...
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2019 Books
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Utz-Pieter Reich on the Nominal and the Real
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What Should be Universal and Free?
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Are We Mismeasurng Productivity?
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Considerations on Rent Control
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Presentation on Public Spending and Debt
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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Quick Take: Recession Risks Tick Up
Over the last couple of months, there was a slight uptick in the economic data, which lifted hopes that a “global reflation” event was underway. As we have been warning for the last couple of months in our weekly newsletter, the ongoing collapse in commodity prices suggested a problem was emerging that trailing “sentiment” data was clearly overlooking. To wit: “There are a few indicators which, by their very nature, should be signaling a...
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Our Triple-C Rated Economy: Complacency, Contradictions, and Corona
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Seth Levine: Commoditizing My Framework For A New Paradigm
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Technically Speaking: Markets Start To Price In “Viral Impacts”
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Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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Earnings Lies & Why Munger Says “EBITDA is Bull S***”
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Did The Market Just Get Infected?
Marc Chandler
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Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues
Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated. Thailand (-5%) and Australia (-2.3%) led the carnage in the Far East. The MSCI...
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Capital Markets Remain Fragile after Yesterday’s Bloodletting
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Stocks Slammed and Yields Drop as Virus Containment Fails
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The Rubber Band Snaps Back: Dollar Correction Begun
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Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence
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Covid-19 Contagion Outside China Keeps Investors on the Defensive
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Covid-19 Hits Yen and Korean Won
Mish’s Global Economic
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San Francisco Mayor Declares State of Emergency, Europe Prepares for Pandemic
SF Mayor London Breed Declares Local Emergency Amid Coronavirus Outbreak The city of San Francisco declared on Tuesday a state of emergency even if at the moment there are no confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the area. "Although there are still zero confirmed cases in San Francisco residents, the global picture is changing rapidly, and we need to step-up preparedness," Breed said in a statement. "We see the virus spreading in new...
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Pandemic Bonds Were Designed to Fail and They Just Did
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Biden Guarantees He Will Win in South Carolina
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Coronavirus Update and Tweets of the Day
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Nearly 50% Odds of “At Least” 3 Rate Cuts by December
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CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
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Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
Naked Capitalism
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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/26/2020
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert, Dune Key dates coming fast now, so I added some counters: Here is a second counter for South Carolina, coming soon: And for Super Tuesday: Super Tuesday states: AL, AK, CA, CO, ME, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT,...
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New Deal, New Patriots: How Roosevelt’s Welfare Programmes Made America Great Again
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Links 2/26/2020
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Alaska’s Marine Ecosystem Is Changing ‘Decades Too Early’ Due to Climate Crisis
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The Race to Slash ‘Red Tape’ in Post-Brexit Britain Has Begun. How Can It Be Resisted?
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Live Blog: Democrat Presidential Primary Debate #11 in Charleston, SC
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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/25/2020
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Charting a course for ammonia as shipping fuel, with tentative steps: Fuel for Thought
The announcement by Norway’s Equinor in January that it had signed a deal to modify a vessel to run on ammonia highlighted the opportunity for another fuel in the ever-diversifying future of bunker markets. Equinor said the move was part of a bid to cut carbon emissions to zero. This was a bold move, but part of a wider zeitgeist in the hydrocarbons industry amid growing pressure from the public and lobbyists for companies to provide greener...
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Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this week
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Decarbonize or die: is Europe turning its back on gas?
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Venezuela, Rosneft and US sanctions complications: Fuel for Thought
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
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Canadian crude oil train derailments, closing USGC arb threaten rail exports
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Amid rising US oil exports, Gulf Coast crude demonstrates global appeal
The Big Picture
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No, It Is Not a Bubble (Yet)
Stock-Market Bubble Fears Are Greatly OverblownDespite some pockets of excess, valuations today are nothing like those of the dot-com era.Bloomberg, February 24, 2020 Anyone paying attention to finance, markets and the economy doesn’t have to look very hard to find complaints that we are on the cusp of a bubble of one type or another. Perhaps the area most often targeted by the bubble believers is tech. I was curious about just how...
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10 Thursday AM Reads
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Flux: Wealth in the United States
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10 Wednesday AM Reads
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Global Shift from Fossil Fuels?
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MiB: Sustainable Investing is Risk Management
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10 Tuesday AM Reads
The Capital Spectator
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US Economy Still Expected To Expand At Moderate Pace In Q1
The coronavirus is weighing on economic estimates around the world and it’s likely that the US will eventually feel some of this pain. The degree of the macro price tag for America remains a guessing game at this point. As a baseline, we can monitor how the first-quarter nowcasts evolve in the days and weeks ahead. On that front, the latest numbers point to a slightly softer increase in output for Q1 vs. the previous quarter. US growth...
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Macro Briefing | 26 February 2020
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Assessing The Damage After Monday’s Sharp Decline In Stocks
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Macro Briefing | 25 February 2020
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Commodities And US Bonds Rose Last Week As Stock Markets Fell
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Macro Briefing | 24 February 2020
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Book Bits | 22 February 2020
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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“Haven Of Last Resort” – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears
"Haven Of Last Resort" - Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears Over the past two weeks gold has surged higher, in line with the decline in long-term bond yields and global equity sell-off as new cases off Covid-19 in Europe and the Middle East threaten to curtail global economic ...
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CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case Of ‘Unknown Origin’: Live Updates
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Scientists Discover HIV-Like “Mutation” Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious
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U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election
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A Great Debate Emerges On Wall Street: Are Men Or Machines Behind The “Panic Selling”?
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President Trump Appoints VP Pence As Coronavirus Czar, Stocks Slide
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Leaked Docs Reveal Covid-19 Infections Up To 52 Times Higher Than ‘Official’ Figures In China’s Shandong Province