Macro
Zerohedge
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Can Mohammed Bin Salman Hold Power While Juggling Trump, Putin And Oil All At Once
Increasingly, it appears that in a rerun of late 2014, OPEC has lost control of the oil market. According to a Bloomberg Op-Ed, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, President Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin are the three people that will steer the outcome of oil prices in the coming year, whether higher or lower. The ...
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“Capitulation”: Nomura Explains What Is Behind The Market’s “Freak Out”
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Pat Buchanan: Will Democratic Rebels Dethrone Nancy?
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WTI Crude Crashes To $53 Handle, 12-Month Lows
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Theresa May Gambling On “Unicorn Fantasy” Compromise To Save Brexit Deal
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Goldman Tells Investors “It’s Time To Lift Cash Allocations”
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All Major US Equity Indices Are Now Red For 2018
The Capital Spectator
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Does Weaker Homebuilder Sentiment Signal Higher Macro Risk?
The hard data on the US housing market has been weakening for most of this year but the blowback for sentiment in the homebuilder industry has been mild – until now. The Housing Market Index (HMI), a monthly benchmark of survey results, fell in the November update to the lowest reading in more than two years. “For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family...
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Macro Briefing: 20 November 2018
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US Stocks Post The Only 1-Year Gain For The Major Asset Classes
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Macro Briefing: 19 November 2018
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Book Bits | 17 November 2018
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Fed Expected To Lift Rates Next Month, But A Pause May Follow
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Macro Briefing: 16 November 2018
Marc Chandler
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Equity Slide Continues
Overview: Yesterday's 3% drop in the NASDAQ is setting the tone for today. The US stock market advance had been led by a narrow group of equities, and those have come under strong pressure amid slower consumer demand and stricter export control. Asian equities were a sea of red today. Chinese markets led the sell-off with more than a 2% drop. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is for a fifth session. It is off nearly 4.7% since November...
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Cheat Sheet
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Does Monday’s Calm mean a Storm is Around the Corner?
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Unfinished Business
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Dollar Correction to Continue
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Turning Brexit into a Dog’s Breakfast
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UK Political Drama Roils Sterling
Mish’s Global Economic
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Retailers Hammered by Profit Concerns: Target Down 10%, Kohl’s 8%
No. 1-6Carl_R1 hrWe still haven't seen one important demographic effect. Normally as a demographic group ages, they get into their fifties, and stop spending, which leads to an economic down period (i.e. recession/depression). Baby boomers continue to spend, even though they are in their 60s, so the economy has never collapsed. Meanwhile, the Millennials peaked about 1991, and are now in their late 20s and approaching the years when they get...
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Mediocre Housing Numbers: Single-Family Starts and Permits Down, Multi-Family Up
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Trump’s Trade War With China: The US is Not Winning
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Bitcoin Plunges Below $5,000 as a Battle Over Bitcoin Cash Erupts
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Financial Crisis Coming: Two Hour Live Discussion Tonight
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Stocks Dive on iPhone Concerns: Production Plans Cut Again and Again
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Keiser Report: Max Keiser, Mish, Stacy Herbert Discuss Capitalism, Job Shortages
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 25-26, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 31-August 1, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
BK Asset Management
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Jittery Trade in FX, Market Looks to US Housing Data
Market Drivers November 20, 2018 Cable seesaws again EURUSD feeling pressure from GE/IT spread Nikkei -1.09% Dax -0.86% Oil $57/bbl Gold $1222/oz. Bitcoin $4600 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: Building Permits/Housing starts 8:30 Another night of grinding seesaw action in FX tonight, with cable, as usual, seeing the most volatility. The situation surrounding the Theresa May’s Brexit deal remains in a flux as she fights battles on all...
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Currencies Have a History of Thanksgiving Milestones (with charts)
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Has Dollar Sentiment Turned?
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Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?
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No Confidence in May? Cable Rollercoaster Continues
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How UK Brexit Troubles Affect Rest of the World
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Brexit Deal Blows Up – What’s Next for Cable?
Calculated Risk
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Housing Inventory Tracking
Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. I don't have a crystal...
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John Burns: Builder Confidence "Feels more like a 50 to me"
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Comments on October Housing Starts
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Housing Starts Increased to 1.228 Million Annual Rate in October
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Tuesday: Housing Starts
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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY
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Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory up 21% YoY
Epsilon Theory
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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics
As Above, So Below “As Above, So Below” is the central principle of the ancient philosophies known as hermeticism, philosophies that had an overwhelming impact on the ancient Greeks, early Christianity, the Renaissance, the Reformation … i.e., Western civilization. I know it’s weird to imagine, but this little phrase has been one of THE most influential ideas in all of history. “As Above, So Below” means that our social lives are organized...
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That’s Just Putting On a Nice Sweater
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Cards of Control and a Brave Little Toaster
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You Had A Stamp Collection?
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When That Fire Hits
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The Sicilian Offense
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I Know Why the Caged Bird Speaks
Charles Hugh Smith
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Hell Hath No Fury Like a Liberal Scorned: The Media Turns on Facebook and Google
Here's the ugly truth: Facebook and Google are profit-maximizing quasi-monopolies who will do anything to protect their monopolies. Of the many remarkable trend changes of the past year, few are more striking than the fawning embrace of Facebook et al. by Big Media turning to an enraged sense of betrayal. Facebook and Google--by their own self-definitions, shining beacons of liberalism and goodness (we're not evil, we're fantabulous!)-- were...
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The Political Rebellion Gathers Momentum
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Does Any of This Make Sense?
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The Implicit Desperation of China’s “Social Credit” System
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Understanding the Global Recession of 2019
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Why Are so Few Americans Able to Get Ahead?
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Is This “The Most Important Election of our Lives” or Just Another Distraction?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Weekly Indicators for November 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha
- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators piece is up at Seeking Alpha.If my reference frames are well- constructed, economic trends ought to start out in the long leading forecast, then start to show up in the short leading forecast, and finally make it through to the coincident nowcast.Almost 6 months ago, the long leading forecast changed from positive to neutral for the first time. It's been flirting with further deterioration ever...
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Credit remains loose, but big borrowers aren’t interested; real consumer spending may be stalling
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Initial markers for a manufacturing slowdown now hit
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Real wages unchanged, real money supply increases in October
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Changes in labor bargaining power take up to a decade to be fully effective
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A baseline road map for the 2020 elections
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Weekly Indicators for November 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Now Playing Everywhere
This Businessweek story on the Sears bankruptcy is like the perfect business action-adventure story for our times. First act: Brash young(ish) hedge fund guy takes over iconic American business, forces through closures and layoffs, makes lots of money for his friends. From the moment he bought into what was then called Sears, Roebuck & Co., he also maneuvered to protect his financial interests. At times, he even made money. He closed...
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Acquisitions as Corporate Money Hose
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New Piece on MMT
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Lecture Notes for Research Methods
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Macroeconomic Lessons from the Past Decade
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“Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change”
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Guns and Ice Cream
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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20/11/18: Bitcoin’s Steady Loss of Fundamentals
Base rate fallacy is one of the key behavioral heuristics or biases in economics and finance, defined as a cognitive error whereby too little (or too much) weight is placed on the base (original) rate of possibility (e.g., the probability of A given B). In behavioral finance,Base rate neglect is the case of giving not enough weight to the prior/original fundamentals in analyzing a complex phenomena, focusing analyst's attention instead on more...
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17/11/2018: California Rooftop Solar Mandate: An example of bad groupthink?
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17/11/18: Nine in Ten in the Red: Asset Markets YTD Returns Signal Risk Repricing
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16/11/18: Student Debt Hits Another High in 3Q 2018
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16/11/18: The Horsemen of the Financial Markets Apocalypse
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15/11/18: BIS on payments systems and cryptos / blockchain
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15/11/18: The ‘New Normal’ is a Road to another Tech Sector Bust
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice
For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became far more than a buzzword. Way back in 2012, under Bernanke’s direction officials would finally admit to an...
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TIC: You Really Can’t Say Enough About Not Enough Collateral
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Official Hedging Begins (Again)
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In A Booming Economy, You Make And Sell Cars
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Retail Sales Marked By Revisions
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In A Booming Economy, You Borrow And Build
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The Obvious Politics of Downturn(s)
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Holiday Shopping Provide an Economic Boost?
We have a normal economic calendar, but a very short week. Many market participants will head for home early on Wednesday for an extended weekend. Some will skip this week entirely. We’ll have interesting data on housing, sentiment, and leading indicators, all reported in a three-day period. The prediction for Friday is easy. The annual Black Friday coverage will take center stage. With these sales starting earlier and earlier, I expect...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Holiday Shopping Provide an Economic Boost?
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Boost Your JM Smuckers Dividend Yield
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Stock Exchange: Despite Volatility, Vale And Brazil Have More Upside
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The Costly Craving for Reasons
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The Costly Craving for Reasons
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Dash of Insight 1970-01-01 00:00:00
Curious Cat
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
Amazon announced they are opening major new offices in Arlington, Virginia and New York City. Each site will hold 25,000 new Amazon employees at an average salary above $150,000. Getting to that level with take many years, next year under 1,000 employees will be at each site. I lived in Arlington for many years and own rental property there. The Amazon decision is likely to catalyze a much more rapid ascent of the technology sector in the...
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
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“Explaining” Random Variation
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, November 2018
CEPR regularly publishes a curated collection of original research from academic institutions and nonprofits on the state of the US labor market. The compilation is part of our ongoing effort to promote informed debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. The Brookings Institution Learning from Opportunity Zones: How To ...
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How Goldman Sachs Still Holds Sway at SEC
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Building An Agency Tracker to Monitor Government Appointments
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Want Transparent Government? Answer These Questions
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Jobs, Pensions Lost in Sears Bankruptcy, but Hedge Fund King Gets Paid
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, October 2018
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The View from the Rear View Mirror: A ‘Ten Years After’ Critique
Economic Populist
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history. Also with this benchmark revision, the reference year...
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
Naked Capitalism
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Another Blow to the Biometric ID Fairy: Researchers Show ‘Master’ Fingerprints Can Bypass Smartphone ID Sensors
By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Motherboard ran a piece last week that suggests the biometric identification fairy’s days may be numbered – at least in her ability to protect smartphones, Researchers Created Fake ‘Master’ Fingerprints to Unlock Smartphones. The original paper announcing the research results is DeepMasterPrints:...
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Links 11/19/18
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Why I Have Given Up on Powell’s Books
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Sunrise Movement and AOC Push Pelosi for a Green New Deal, Highlighting Job Creation
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An MMT View of “Twin Deficits”: Budget and Current Account Deficits
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Links 11/18/18
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IMF, Warren Sound Alarm on Leveraged Lending
Lance Roberts RIA
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Technically Speaking: Why This Market Is Incurring A “Revision Of Belief”
Last year, I penned an article titled: “It’s a Turkey Market” and with Thanksgiving just a couple of days away, I thought it was an apropos time to revisit that post. “What’s a ‘Turkey’ market? Nassim Taleb summed it up well in his 2007 book ‘The Black Swan.’ ‘Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human...
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Kass: A Changing Market Structure or “WTF Is Going On?”
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Why Another Volatility Spike May Be Ahead
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The End Of The Tax Cut Boost
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Which Smart Beta Was Smartest in October?
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Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak 11-16-18
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How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Secular Trends in Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later. The monthly data points are preserved as faint dots. The trends are illustrated with 6-month moving averages of data divided by the Census Bureau's...
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New Residential Building Permits: 1.263M in October
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New Residential Housing Starts Down Up in October
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World Markets Update
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down Seven Cents
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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Drops as Housing Affordability Issues Rise”
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 1.6% from Last Friday
The Barrel Blog
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Big Oil’s shale revival prompts industry doubts: Fuel for Thought
Oil and gas majors have brushed themselves off after the industrywide downturn and are back on their feet trying to mimic the success of smaller companies in US shale. But many doubters still question whether Big Oil is up to the task after failing at earlier attempts in such plays. The setbacks to global majors’ shale efforts earlier in the decade were well-publicized. Several invested heavily in shale gas before prices collapsed, as more...
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Spread between CAPP coal, ARA coal tightest in nearly four years
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Insight: US voters give boost to clean energy policies but stop short of carbon tax
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In the LOOP: Q3 Louisiana crude imports fall even as refinery input rises
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US Bakken crude latest to suffer from takeaway constraints: Fuel for Thought
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Insight from Washington: US energy conservation gets lost in the drive for oil abundance
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Charting relative cost of thermal coal vs LNG in Northeast Asia reveals fresh insights
Eurostat News Releases
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Production in construction up by 2.0% in euro area
Download PDF
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Total agricultural output in the EU up by 6.2% in 2017 compared with 2016
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Annual inflation up to 2.2% in the euro area
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €13.1 bn
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Amounts sent to non-EU countries by EU residents up at €32.7 billion in 2017
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Employment up by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU28
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Industrial production down by 0.3% in euro area
Commodity Blog
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Commodities Technical Analysis, November 19th — November 23rd
The technical analysis, that includes the indicators’ data and major pivot points for WTI Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas in continous charts as of November 18th, 2018: Crude Oil Indicators Moving Averages RSI Parabolic SAR CCI Short Oversold Short Neutral Floor pivot points 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 47.56 51.15 54.08 57.67 60.60 64.19 67.12 Woodie’s pivot points 2nd Sup 1st Sup...
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BitMEX CEO Correctly Predicts $5,000 in Bitcoin Price: Is His $2,000 Forecast Next?
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Natural Gas Rebounds After Posting Biggest One-Day Drop Since 2003
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Why Bitcoin Price Dropped: 5 Potential Reasons to Consider
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Soybean Rallies 1% on Slower US Harvest, Fresh Export Sales
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Gold Gains on Risk Aversion, Weakening Dollar
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Drops Sharply Below $6,200
BEA
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Local Area Personal Income, 2017
Personal income increased in 2,787 counties, decreased in 318, and was unchanged in 8 in 2017, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased 4.5 percent in the metropolitan portion of the United States and increased 3.2 percent in the nonmetropolitan portion in 2017. The change in personal income ranged from -41.4 percent in Slope County, North Dakota to 23.7 percent in Crosby...
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 2nd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product for Guam, 2017
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Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2016
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 2nd quarter 2018 and comprehensive update
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Personal Income and Outlays, September 2018
Humble student of the markets
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How fat tails could mean fat profits
The CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST) measures volatility over a 9-days. In effect, it’s the 9-day VIX, which measures 1-month volatility. VXST closed at 21.17 last week. indicating that the market expects an annualized volatility of 21.17% over the next 9-days. When I translate that to a weekly volatility by taking the 52nd root (52 weeks in a year), it comes to 1.1%. That figure seems low for several reasons. First, the SPX rose...
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Was the market swoon made in China?
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Tricks or treats for equities?
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Contrarian ideas for a relief rally
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How this Bear could be wrong: Exploring the bull case
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How short-sellers can get hurt in a bear market
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Defensive and Value leadership = Bear market?
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
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S&P Levels To Watch
We maintain our view there is a high probability the 2018 S&P500 intraday low at 2532.69 will be tested, which is 5.87 percent below today’s close. The next levels to watch are closes below 2641.24 and 2581.0, the recent and 2018 closing lows. It’s not going to happen in a straight line, folks, but more zig-zaggy, especially given the low holiday liquidity. We could get there as the market loses all hope only to have Santa save the day. ...
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Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P
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The Lessons of Quantitative Easing | Stephen Roach
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QOTD: Vincent Van Gogh
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Our Favorite Chart Of The Week
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Rosie On Investing In 2019 – Financial Post
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Week In Review – November 16
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Analysts Still (Too) High on S&P 500 Earnings
The latest earnings reporting season seemed to contribute to the sharp selloff in stocks during October, as some companies reported bullish earnings that were more than offset by bearish guidance about future earnings prospects. Collectively, however, the S&P 500 companies’ Q3 earnings results reported through the 11/8 week were 4.9% better than analysts had expected during the 9/28 week, i.e., just before the start of the latest earnings...
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Fed’s R-Star Is A Black Hole
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Fed’s Restrictive Chatter Rattles Stocks
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Trump’s Poison Pills for China
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China’s Syndromes
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Bear Traps for Stocks?
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Financial Crisis of 2008 Part VII: FEDDIE