Macro
Zerohedge
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Stocks, Yuan Tumble On US-China Trade Headlines
US equities and yuan are down notably after Bloomberg reports that some U.S. officials are concerned that China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks as progress slows toward a deal. Chinese negotiators have shifted their stance with the view that while they have agreed to changes to their intellectual-property policies, they haven’t ...
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If “Slow Wifi” Causes “Major Stress,” How Are Young People Going To Cope When Times Get Really Tough?
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“The Situation Is Quite Severe”: Aluminum Giant Norsk Crippled By Massive Ransomware Attack
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Why This Oil Price Rally Has A Limit
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Toxic Chemical Inferno Threatens Houston Area As Black Plume Extends For Miles
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Trump Vows To Investigate Facebook
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Nomura: “Event Risk” Has Become A Joke
The Capital Spectator
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US Q1 GDP Growth On Track To Slow Again As Fed Meeting Begins
The recent slowdown in US economic growth is expected to continue in the first quarter, according to the latest nowcasts for GDP. The estimates will likely be a factor in the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting that begins today and concludes tomorrow with an announcement on interest rates, a new set of quarterly forecasts and a press conference. Meantime, next month’s initial release of Q1 GDP data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected...
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Macro Briefing: 19 March 2019
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Across-The-Board Rallies Lifted All Markets Last Week
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Macro Briefing: 18 March 2019
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Book Bits | 16 March 2019
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Research Review | 15 March 2019 | Nowcasting
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Macro Briefing: 15 March 2019
Marc Chandler
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Third Vote on Withdrawal Bill Scuppered Until after EU Summit
Overview: The capital markets remain subdued. Many Asian equity markets eased after a strong two-day advance. European equities are slightly firmer. The S&P 500 closed at new five-month highs yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer. Australian 10-year bond yield fell five basis points, and the discount to the US widened to a new high since the early 1980s. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia...
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Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited
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Dollar Correction may Continue
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Three Highlights in the Week Ahead
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Euro and Yen Volatility Slips to New Five-Year Lows on the Ides of March
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There at the Beginning
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Another UK Vote, but No Closure
Mish’s Global Economic
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Factory Orders Inch Higher Only Because of Aircraft, Shipments Down 4th Month
Factory orders rose 0.1% but shipments which feed GDP reports were down for the fourth consecutive month. The advance reports five days ago set the tone for this report. Yet there was an unusually wide guess from Econoday economists where the range of estimates was from -3.0% to +0.6%. The consensus must have been paying attention to the advance report as they were nearly on the mark at 0.0%. The monthly full report of Manufacturers'...
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Decline of Globalization
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Recycling Movement Fails: China Doesn’t Want US Garbage, Not Profitable Here
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Parliament Speaker Rules Out Another Vote on May’s Deal Unless It’s Changed
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Real Reason Trump Wants to Ban Huawei: US Wants to Spy and China Won’t Cooperate
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Boeing 737 Max Major Design Flaws, Not a Software Failure
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Paris Burning: Luxury Stores Looted and Burned in Latest Yellow Vest Uprising
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 29-30, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on January 29-30, 2019. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these...
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Federal Open Market Committee reaffirms its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 18-19, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 7-8, 2018
BK Asset Management
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Markets Mark Time Ahead of Fed
Market Drivers March 19, 2019 Majors tread water UK labor data beats Nikkei 0.08% Dax 0.61% Oil $59/bbl Gold $1305oz. Europe and Asia: GBP UK Average earnings 3.4% vs. 3.2% GBP UK Unemployment rate 3.9% vs. 4.0% North America: No data It’s been a slow listless night of trade in FX with majors contained to 20 pip ranges for most of Asian and European dealing as markets awaited the FOMC announcement tomorrow while the rest of the eco calendar...
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Brexit Vote Blocked – Is GBP Headed for 1.30?
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Aussie Pops Stops at .7100 as Risk On Continues
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Dollar Stumbles, More Losses Ahead?
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Risk Revives Into Close of Week But BOJ Stays Pat
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USDJPY – What to Expect from the Bank of Japan
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Buck Boosted by US Yields
Calculated Risk
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Housing Inventory Tracking
Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. I don't have a crystal...
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
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"Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows"
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Goldman: FOMC Preview
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Sacramento Housing in February: Sales Down 10% YoY, Active Inventory up 16% YoY
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NAHB: Builder Confidence "Steady" in March
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Sunday Night Futures
Epsilon Theory
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Good Luck!
Let me get this straight. You think that your client – one of the wealthiest, and most powerful men in the world, is secretly a vigilante who spends his nights beating criminals to a pulp with his bare hands. And your plan is to blackmail this person?…Good luck!Lucius Fox in The Dark Knight (2008) You tell me it’s the institution, well you know, you better free your mind instead. Revolution, The Beatles (1968) It is better to die well,...
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The Zeitgeist – 3.18.2019
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The Ministry of Rites and the Compassionate Man
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The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 3.16.2019
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The Zeitgeist – 3.15.2019
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The Zeitgeist – 3.14.2019
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The Zeitgeist – 3.13.2019
Charles Hugh Smith
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The Coming Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix: Credit Exhaustion
Thus will end the central banks' bombastic hubris and the public's faith in central banks' godlike powers. Having fixed the liquidity crisis of 2008-09 and kept a perversely unequal "recovery" staggering forward for a decade, central banks now believe there is no crisis they can't defeat: Liquidity crisis? Flood the global financial system with liquidity. Interest rates above zero? Create trillions out of thin air and use the...
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A Precarious Revolution Is Brewing
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What Sort of “Democracy” Do We Have If Everyone’s Goal Is Maximizing Their Government Swag?
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How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps
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Here’s The Problem: The Pie Is Shrinking
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The Source of Killer Inflation: Services
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What If Politics Can’t Fix What’s Broken?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Over 50% of all wealth in the US is inherited not earned
- by New Deal democrat I got waylaid putting together a very detailed post about how the newly-widened Panama Canal is disrupting the internal US transportation network. When it goes up at Seeking Alpha, I’ll link to it. In the meantime, here is something that I found a week or two ago for you to chew on. Over half of all US wealth is not earned but inherited: According to a report summarized recently in the Washington Post, “The...
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The government shutdown may have caused a mini-recession
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Preventing Presidential autocracy: thoughts on reining in Executive power
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Weekly Indicators for March 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha
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Industrial production weak, while JOLTS employment remains strong
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Initial jobless claims not at warning levels yet
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Leading scenes from the February jobs report
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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The Economic Case for the Green New Deal
(Co-authored with Sue Holmberg and Mark Paul, and cross-posted from Forbes. This is a teaser for a project the three of us are working on at the Roosevelt Institute on the economics of the Green New Deal.) Almost overnight, the idea of a Green New Deal has won over environmental activists and many lawmakers. An all-out national mobilization to decarbonize the economy has a natural appeal to those who see climate change as an immediate,...
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Could Trump Have a Point about Rate Hikes?
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“On money, debt, trust and central banking”
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Strange Defeat
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In Jacobin: A Demystifying Decade for Economics
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How to Read a Regression
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Now Playing Everywhere
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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12/3/19: S&P500 Concentration Risk over 10 years
More on increasing concentration risks in the U.S. equity markets: Goldman Sachs estimates that almost 1/4 of total return to S&P500 over the last 10 years came from just 10 stocks: Of these, Apple alone accounted for almost 1/5th of total return to S&P500. 22% of total return was accounted for by ICT sector.
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10/3/19: Irish Residential Construction Sector 2018: A New ‘Recovery’ Low
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6/3/19: Expectations Sand Castles and Investors
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4/3/19: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: January-February Trend
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4/3/19: S&P 500 Share Price Support Scams are a Raging Trend
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1/3/19: U.S. PMI is not at a Crisis levels
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1/3/19: Australia is the New Ireland: How Property Hype Inflates Financial Bubbles
Bull Markets
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The stock market today is eerily similar to 1937
As the stock market rallies, it never ceases to amaze me how popular crash-analogues can be. The 1937 analogue has been quite popular recently, constantly shared and reshared on social media and trading blogs. Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the...
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A better valuation indicator for the U.S. stock market
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Market outlook: it’s been a terrific start to the year for stocks. What’s next
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Simple Trading Model applied to factor-specific indices
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Is the stock market high?
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March 15, 2019: fundamental outlook for stocks
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Negative TIC Is A Rare Level of Negative
Even on a six-month cumulative basis, it is rare to find a negative number. These are reserved for the big ones, the market-shaking events that either perform an inflection or confirm one as it reaches pretty hard depths. The world being the way that it is, you just don’t see the whole forced into outright selling (on net) US$ assets. According to the Treasury Department’s TIC data, over the last six months up to and including January 2019, US...
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Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles
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Chart(s) of the Week: Reviewing Curve Warnings
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The World Economy’s Industrial Downswing
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No Sign of Stimulus, Or Global Growth, China’s Economy Sunk By (euro)Dollar
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The Fed Proposes A Repo Facility, QE5
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Monthly Macro Chart Review – March (VIDEO)
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Hint at a New Course?
With a light economic calendar including a lot of old data and an FOMC meeting, the choice of focus for pundits is obvious. Investors might well wonder what new information about the Fed might be available, but that won’t stop the speculation. Pundits will be asking: Will the Fed hint at a new course? In last week’s installment of WTWA I took on a very ambitious question: Would a slowing Chinese economy lead to global recession. Since you...
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Stock Exchange: Is The Market’s Momentum Back?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Slowing Chinese Growth Spark a Global Recession?
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Stock Exchange: Who Moved My Cheese?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is “Baked Into” Current Market Prices?
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Stock Exchange: Realty Income’s Near-Term Momentum, Long-Term Risks
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Stock Exchange: Do You Trade Big Or Small?
Curious Cat
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
This post lists the 20 publicly traded companies with the largest market capitalization as of today. Since my November 2017 list of the 20 most valuable stocks the value of 2 companies increased by more than $150 billion and 4 companies value decreased by over $100 billion. In the 20 most valuable companies list there are 13 USA companies, 4 Chinese companies and 1 each for Korea, Netherlands and Switzerland. The remaining 15 companies with...
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Good Medicine: Universal Paid Sick Leave
Protecting the health of workers is a crucial factor in maintaining a productive workforce. However, this objective remains inaccessible for many Americans due to the lack of universal access to paid sick leave. Over 40 million American workers still do not have access to paid sick leave and face the dilemma of either taking an ...
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Coalition Asks Pelosi: Make Ways & Means Committee Do Its Job
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Speaker Pelosi: We Urgently Need Energetic House Ways & Means Committee Oversight
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Why Has the Share of US Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force Fallen Behind Other Economies?
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Understanding Challenges of AAPI Women to Achieve Equal Pay
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Revolving Door Project Reacts to Richard Neal’s Announcement: Late and Weak
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NY State Lawmakers Show How We Can Advance Reform in Face of Federal Gridlock
Economic Populist
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the quarter, revised from the 3.5% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as growth in personal consumption, fixed investment, and exports were revised lower than was previously reported even as the change in our inventories was a greater addition to GDP than in...
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
Naked Capitalism
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Links 3/18/19
Patient readers, we just this instant switched on the codes for a new advertising vendor. A very much unintended and unexpected side effect is that some of you may be seeing video and other pop-ups. We were very clear in that these types of ads were not allowed. We are working to make them go away as fast as we can, because we know how much you hate them (and we do too)! –lambert Update by Yves: The site seems to load faster with the new ads...
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Electronic Health Records: Death By A Thousand Clicks
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Shotgun Marriage: Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank Discuss Merger
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“Middle Class” Once Meant Stability and Now Means Fragility
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Seeking Feedback on Possible Meetups: DC on Thursday March 28, Milwaukee on Wednesday May 1?
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Can Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg Be Trusted To Turn Facebook into a “Privacy-Focused Communications Platform?”
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Links 3/17/19
Lance Roberts RIA
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Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles
Personal Request: I need your assistance with a new project. We have recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by the power and security of Yodlee, AWS, ForgeRock, and Intrinio. Our goal is to develop the next generation financial application to help you get control of, and grow, your wealth. Once you try it out, give us feedback as we continue to develop many new features over the next few months. A Different...
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After Two Of The Greatest Bull Markets In U.S. History, Why Are Boomers So Broke?
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The Goldilocks Warning 03-16-19
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Artificial Intelligence Or Real Stupidity?
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Stock Buybacks Aren’t Bad, Just Misused & Abused
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Commercial & Industrial Loans Are In The Danger Zone
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Mature Company Stocks Are NOT Bonds
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium, WTIC All Up
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The price of Regular and Premium are up eight cents each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.33 and Utah has the cheapest at $2.28. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 59.38, a 4.6% increase from this time last week.
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World Markets Update
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NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Holds Steady in March”
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: March Preliminary Rose
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: All Measures Up Again
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update
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Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle
The Barrel Blog
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In the LOOP: Third VLCC of the year departs Louisiana, bound for South Korea
Louisiana Offshore Oil Port continues to load on average one VLCC crude tanker per month for export and logged its third such export of the year late last week. The 2 million barrel-capacity VLCC Dilam loaded at LOOP and set sail for South Korea on Wednesday, according to cFlow, Platts trade flow software. Dilam marks the third VLCC export from LOOP so far this year. All of the LOOP-loaded tankers have been taken to South Korea. New...
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Tariffs frustrate US-China trade in plastic resins and finished products
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IMO 2020 may not solve crude oil quality riddle: Fuel for Thought
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Energy and commodities highlights: CERAWeek, US sanctions and EU energy laws
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Toxic air catastrophe triggers scrap metal revolution in China
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Big Oil braces for fresh pressure over climate strategy, diversity
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Insight from Washington: US refiners worry about White House wild card as IMO 2020 nears
Eurostat News Releases
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €1.5 bn
Download PDF
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Euro area and EU28 job vacancy rates at 2.3%
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Annual inflation up to 1.5% in the euro area
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Highest proportion of government expenditure goes to social protection and health
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580 800 first-time asylum seekers registered in 2018, down by 11% compared with 2017
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Industrial production up by 1.4% in euro area
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Over 5 million births in EU in 2017
Commodity Blog
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Gold Firms Above $1,300 Ahead of Fed Meeting
Gold futures are hovering slightly above the important $1,300 threshold to kick off the trading week. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, the yellow metal is rising on a weaker US dollar, global uncertainty, and disappointing economic data. April gold futures edged up $1.20, or 0.09%, to $1,304.10 per ounce at 16:30 GMT on Monday. Last week, gold posted a modest gain of 0.75%, bringing its year-to-date increase to 1%. Silver,...
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Commodities Technical Analysis, March 18th — March 22nd
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Soybeans Rally Despite Doubts on Chinese Demand Amid Swine Fever
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Natural Gas Jumps 1% as US Supplies Fall
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US Crude Rallies 2% on Steep Decline in Domestic Inventories
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Crude Oil Struggles to Move Higher amid Conflicting Fundamentals
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Copper Rallies 1% on Bullish Investors, Rebound in Chinese Imports
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2018
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion from $50.3 billion in November, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit Deficit: $59.8 Billion +18.8%° Exports: $205.1 Billion -1.9%° Imports: $264.9 Billion +2.1%° Next release: March 27, 2019 (°) Statistical significance...
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Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018; Personal Income, January 2019
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Initial Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 3rd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd quarter 2018
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 3rd quarter 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2018
Humble student of the markets
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Nearing peak good news?
Mid-week market update: Stock prices have been rallying as it hit a trifecta of good news. First, a compromise seems to have been made on the avoidance of another government shutdown. As well, Trump has been making encouraging noises about a US-China trade agreement. Either both sides could come to an understanding on or before the March 1 deadline, or the deadline will be extended, which is a sign of progress. Should the announcement of a...
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The Art of the Deal meets the Art of the Possible
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Here comes the growth scare
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Why there will be a US-China trade deal by March 1
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What gold tells us about stock prices
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Demographics isn’t destiny = History rhymes
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Recession ahead? Fuggedaboutit!
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Global Macro Monitor
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Rory It Is…
The Irishman, Rory McIlroy wins the Players Championship at the TPC Sawgrass in Florida on St. Patrick’s Day with a score of 16 under par. How cool is that? I think our “Unleash the Leprechauns!” chant and blessing helped him along today. You should have bet along with us. See here. In the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2019, Rory McIlroy made some clutch shots down the stretch, carding a 2-under 70 to finish the tournament at...
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Week In Review – March 15
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NASA’s Pot of Gold
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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!
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Sector ETF Performance – March 15
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Global Risk Monitor – March 15
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QOTD: Turkey/Eagle Flight Convergence During QE
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Disconnecting the Fed’s Dots (Melissa Tagg and Ed Yardeni)
Don’t look too closely at the Fed’s dot plot or you might miss the larger monetary policy picture, warned Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a 3/8 speech titled “Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead.” To make his point, he showed two unusual images: an unrecognizable close-up of a bouquet of flowers from impressionist painter Georges Seurat’s “A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte” and a very recognizable...
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Happy Birthday to the Bull Market!
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Chauncey Gardiner on GDP, “There will be growth in the spring.”
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Should Stock Buybacks Be Banned?
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Lipstick on a Pig: US Federal Government Debt
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Bonds: Doing the Unexpected
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Recession: Waiting for Godot