Macro
Zerohedge
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“It’s Very Sad” – Trump Blames Bankruptcy On Sears Management
Though investors realized early this year that the 2017 holiday season would be its last as a functioning company, Sears' bankruptcy filing has kicked off a wave of nostalgia for the company that, more than any other, pioneered the department store as a concept. During the American post-war golden age, Sears' dominance of the retail ...
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Why Crypto Miners Are Paying Attention To The Permian
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FBI Concealed Evidence That “Directly Refutes” Premise Of Trump-Russia Probe: GOP Lawmaker
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Choking On The Salt Of Debt
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“Math Correction” Confirms Warren Could Be 1/1024th Native American
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Goldman Adds Saudi Arabia As Key Political Risks For Oil
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Yellen Speaks, Market Shrieks
The Capital Spectator
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Bonds Popped Last Week As Stocks Stumbled
Foreign bonds posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes last week, delivering a contrast with falling prices in equity markets around the world, based on a set of exchange-traded products at the close of trading on Friday, Oct. 12. Inflation-linked government bonds in foreign markets led the field. SPDR Citi International Government Inflation-Protected Bond (WIP) edged up 0.8% last week, although the ETF remains close to its lowest...
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Macro Briefing: 15 October 2018
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Book Bits | 13 October 2018
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Mideast And US Hold On To Only Regional Equity Gains This Year
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Macro Briefing: 12 October 2018
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Parsing Yesterday’s Stock Market Slide
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Macro Briefing: 11 October 2018
Marc Chandler
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Macro Cheat Sheet
Key considerations and price for selected currencies distilled into four bullet points. US Dollar The dollar's recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President's criticism to alter the Fed's course. US data highlights this week include...
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Monday Blues
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Forces of Movement
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Constructive Price Action Leads Technicals
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Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend
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Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot
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Macro Cheat Sheet
Mish’s Global Economic
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DNA Testing: We’re All American Indians, Trump Proposes Personal Test of Warren
The test, conducted by a Stanford University Professor Carlos Bustamante, showed that Warren has a Native American ancestor going back six to 10 generations ago, making her somewhere between 1/32ndand 1/1024thAmerican Indian. The Cherokee Nation in a statement said using a DNA test to claim connection with a tribal nation is “inappropriate” and “wrong.” “Using a DNA test to lay claim to any connection to the Cherokee Nation or any tribal...
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Congratulations Workers, You Now Make 0.5% More Than a Year Ago
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Gold Shorts About to Get Burned
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September Retail Sales Fizzle: 0.1% Gain vs. 0.6% Expected
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Warning! Civilization at Risk, Crisis by 2040 (And Other Nonsensical Climate BS)
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Bavaria Final Math: Look for a CSU Plus Free Voters Coalition
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Trump, Saudi Arabia Trade “Severe Punishment” Threats Over Missing Journalist
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Please enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser or access the information through the links provided below. September 26, 2018 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT...
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Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 31-August 1, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 12-13, 2018
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
BK Asset Management
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Are USD/JPY & EUR/USD Poised for More Losses?
Are USD/JPY & EUR/USD Poised for More Losses? Daily FX Market Roundup 10.12.18 By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management In 2 trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,300 points and the S&P500 fell over 5%. The last time there was a decline of this magnitude was in February and on the day when the UK voted to leave the European Union. Both times the declines were short-lived and...
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Why the Sell-off in Stocks Only Hurt the Dollar
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Is US Inflation Finally Here?
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FX Snap Back – Will the Recovery Last?
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US Yields at 9 Year Highs – Euro and Pound Fall Further
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USD/JPY – Buy or Sell?
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Why Euro Seems Destined to Fall
Calculated Risk
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Tuesday: Industrial Production, Job Openings, Homebuilder Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a SignMortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate recovery at the beginning of last week. That recovery largely followed the stock market weakness....
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LA area Port Traffic in September
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House Prices and Inventory
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Retail Sales increased 0.1% in September
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Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey
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Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Down 15.5% YoY, Active Inventory up 23% YoY
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Schedule for Week of October 14, 2018
Epsilon Theory
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Locusts’ Lament
After publishing a few In Brief pieces featuring Quid-based narrative maps, we received a number of emails from subscribers asking us for analysis on other topics. For those who have read prior notes, you will know that what I usually find most interesting are areas in which otherwise similar topics or words engender very different sentiment and narratives, or in which different universes of authors, commenters and missionaries conjure up...
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Why Ben Sasse Loses the Game of You
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Dogs, Dog Food, and the Curse of Some Talent
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We Were Soldiers Once … And Young
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When Good Words Go Bad
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Why Am I Reading This NOW? 10/12/2018 Edition
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Complacency and Concern in Robo-Land
Charles Hugh Smith
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How Many Households Qualify as Middle Class?
By the standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? Defining the middle class is a parlor game, with most of the punditry referring to income brackets as the defining factor. People tend to self-report that they belong to the middle class based on income, but income is not the key metric: 12 other factors are more telling...
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Here’s Why the Next Recession Will Spiral Into a Depression
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The Distortions of Doom Part 2: The Fatal Flaws of Reserve Currencies
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The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations
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The Dynamics of Decadence
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Pensions Now Depend on Bubbles Never Popping (But All Bubbles Pop)
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The Labor Shortage Is Real
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Real retail sales lay an egg in September
- by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is among my favorite economic indicators. Measured per capita, it is a long leading indicator for the economy as a whole, while its simple measure is a short leading indicator for employment. Let's take a look at each. Last week I noted that retail sales had grown nominally by +1.9% last September, likely a rebound from last year's troika of major hurricanes, including the one that dumped up to...
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On the rise of German militarism
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Weekly Indicators for October 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha
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Housing’s most difficult comparisons in years begin next Wednesday
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Subdued September inflation means real hourly and aggregate wages grow
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Tracking Trump’s trade wars: inventories and intermodal traffic
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Is the taboo against raising wages beginning to break?
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Acquisitions as Corporate Money Hose
Among the small group of heterodox economics people interested in corporate finance, it is common knowledge that the stock market is a tool for moving money out of the corporate sector, not into it. Textbooks may talk about stock markets as a tool for raising funds for investment, but this kind of financing is dwarfed by the payments each year from the corporations to shareholders. The classic statement, as is often the case, is in Doug...
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New Piece on MMT
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Lecture Notes for Research Methods
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Macroeconomic Lessons from the Past Decade
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“Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change”
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Guns and Ice Cream
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Decarbonization: A Keynesian View
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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9/10/18: BRIC Composite PMIs 3Q 2018: A Tale of Growth Slowdown
Previous posts on 3Q 2018 PMIs have covered:BRIC Manufacturing PMIs: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/10/31018-global-pmis-tanked-in-3q-2018.html; BRIC Services PMIs: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/10/91018-bric-services-pmis-3q-2018-slower.html; and Global Composite PMIs: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/10/31018-global-pmis-tanked-in-3q-2018.html. Now, let’s take a look at the BRIC Composite PMIs that combine Services and...
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9/10/18: BRIC Services PMIs 3Q 2018: Slower Growth Ahead
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9/10/18: Euromoney on 3Q 2018 Changes in the Global Risk Environment
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9/10/18: Russian Growth, ‘Putin;’s Call’ and the Middle Income Growth Trap
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3/10/18: Global PMIs tanked in 3Q 2018
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3/10/18: Dumping Ice bags into Overheating Reactor: Bonds & Stocks Bubbles
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2/10/18: Government Debt per Employed Person
Alhambra Investment Partners
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The Neglected Tool
Whether or not any central banker chooses to appreciate the fact, money is an important economic tool. Before it ever gets to be a store of value, there has to be some correct supply so as to become a medium of exchange (and almost by virtue a unit of account). The problem throughout history has been to foresee and then apply the “correct” amount. Central banks have become corrupted as to that vital task. In these days of activist...
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The Risks of Expectations
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Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Economy
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Special Edition: Markets Under Pressure (VIDEO)
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How Close Are the Clouds?
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The Populist Pathology
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The Macro Downgrade Cycle
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark a Rebound in Stocks?
We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on housing data. Earnings season will be in full swing. The background for this news will, of course, be the stock market volatility and decline of the past week. That story will command the early-week attention, especially if aggressive selling resumes. Recent earnings seasons have buoyed stocks, leaving the punditry with this question: Can earnings season spark a rebound in stocks? In my last...
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Stock Exchange: Do You Pretend To Understand The Market?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Rising Interest Rates Signal the Beginning of the End?
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Stock Exchange: Is Breaking News Useless Noise Or Trading Fuel?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Asking the Right Questions
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Stock Exchange: What Is The Foundation For Your Trades?
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Stock Exchange: Do You Trade Extreme Market Moves?
Curious Cat
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China’s Investments in Africa
The stories you most frequently hear about China in Africa are Resource extraction (oil, metals, etc.) Infrastructure loans from China (with Chinese labor and Chinese companies doing the work) (often to aid resource extraction) Farming exports to China While those are happening an excellent report from McKinsey (Dance of the Lions and Dragons) provides an in depth look at a much more entrepreneurial state of affairs. While There are big...
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
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Improvements to Credit Collection Requirements Have Had an Positive Impact
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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book
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USA Household Debt Jumps to Record $13.15 Trillion
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“Explaining” Random Variation
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2017
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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Jobs, Pensions Lost in Sears Bankruptcy, but Hedge Fund King Gets Paid
It was a few days after Christmas when Sears announced plans to close up to 120 Sears and Kmart locations. The year was 2011. With a market cap of only $3.45 billion, Sears looked like a good candidate for a takeover, but there were no takers. As Dan Primack observed at the time, Sears debt ...
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, October 2018
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The View from the Rear View Mirror: A ‘Ten Years After’ Critique
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Sen. Cornyn Unfairly Maligns Consumer Watchdog Agency
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Media Underplaying Number of Immigrants Affected by Trump’s “Public Charge” Proposal
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Just One Percent of Workers Do Gig Work as Main Job, Secondary Job or Additional Income
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They Should Have Listened
Economic Populist
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history. Also with this benchmark revision, the reference year...
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
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November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP
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Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs
Naked Capitalism
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Thanks! Hit Our Third Fundraiser Target Quickly, Onto the Fourth: Guest Bloggers
Thanks to the prompt responses of over 715 members of the Naked Capitalism community, we’ve met our first target, an increased budget for site improvements and IT support, and the second target, funding for meetups, travel and related site coverage, and our third, funding comments section support, at a rapid clip. You donations are a statement that you value this community and want a better debate and a better society and are willing to...
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2:00PM Water Cooler 10/15/2018
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#MeToo under the Golden Arches at McDonald’s
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Links 10/15/18
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Michael Hudson: Naked Capitalism – The Best Daily Paper
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How to Destroy Neoliberalism: Kill ‘Homo Economicus’
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Brexit: EU-UK Talks Collapse, Disorderly Exit Virtually Certain
Lance Roberts RIA
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Let’s Be Like Japan
There has been a lot of angst lately over the rise in interest rates and the question of whether the government will be able to continue to fund itself given the massive surge in the fiscal deficit since the beginning of the year. While “spending like drunken sailors” is not a long-term solution to creating economic stability, unbridled fiscal stimulus does support growth in the short-term. Spending on natural disaster recovery last year...
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Finding Opportunity In The Retail Apocalypse
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Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18
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VLOG: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
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Weekend Reading: We Are All In….Again!
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As Seen On Forbes: Volatility Is Surging
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Technically Speaking: Update – Markets Fail To Hold Support
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Grew in October
[unable to retrieve full-text content] This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 21.1 was an increase of 2.1 from the previous month's 19.0. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 20.4.
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S&P 500 Snapshot: This Week Saw Largest Daily Loss Since February
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A Long-Term Look at Inflation
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: October Preliminary Slips
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update
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Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components
The Barrel Blog
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Saudi Arabia’s power play will unleash crude oil supplies: Fuel for Thought
Saudi Arabia’s energy strategy could put to bed questions over its spare oil capacity in the coming years. The kingdom’s plan is two-pronged: Expand and develop oil fields to offset production decline, and diversify away from crude for power generation. It is this latter move that is key to unlocking further oil exports. The OPEC doyen plans to burn less crude as it pushes ahead with a swathe of important gas and high-sulfur fuel oil power...
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Vietnam’s plastic end-users set to gain as US-China trade spat intensifies
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Insight: Libya’s oil production faces political litmus test
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US jet fuel soared in Q3 on sagging RVO, record demand
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In the LOOP: Imports of Kuwaiti crude fall 60.5% year on year
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African upstream recovery raises funding dilemma: Fuel for Thought
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Insight: US natural gas, coal markets calm about low inventories … for now
Eurostat News Releases
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Industrial production up by 1.0% in euro area
Download PDF
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House prices up by 4.3% in the euro area
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Business investment rate stable at 23.0% in the euro area
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Household saving rate nearly stable at 12.1% in the euro area
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Volume of retail trade down by 0.2% in euro area
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EU28 current account surplus €62.0 bn
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Industrial producer prices up by 0.3% in both euro area and EU28
Commodity Blog
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Bitcoin Price Rallies Following Tether Sell-Off
After discussing 5 reasons why Bitcoin price could surge on Saturday, the world’s largest virtual currency by market cap rallied more than 11 percent on Monday as Tether, a token designed to be pegged to the US dollar, dropped more than 2 percent. The price recovered above $6,900 level around 8:00 GMT for the first time after a major sell-off. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin reached a market cap $115 Billion after the price...
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Crude Oil Gains amid Tensions Between USA & Saudi Arabia
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Gold Rallies Over Dollar Weakness As Investors Eye $1,238
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Pennant on Chart of Gold Gives Hopes to Bulls
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Commodities Technical Analysis, October 15th — October 19th
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5 Factors That Could Cause Bitcoin Price to Surge
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Crude Oil Loses Gains on Friday, Heads to Weekly Loss
BEA
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2018
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $53.2 billion in August, up $3.2 billion from $50.0 billion in July, revised. Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1) August exports were $209.4 billion, $1.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $262.7 billion, $1.5 billion more than July imports. The August increase in the goods and services deficit...
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Personal Consumption Expenditures by State, 2017
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Personal Income and Outlays, August 2018
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Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2018 (revised estimate)
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U.S. International Investment Position, Second Quarter 2018
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State Quarterly Personal Income, 2nd quarter 2018; State Annual Personal Income, 2017
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Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, 2012-2016
Humble student of the markets
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The calm before the storm?
Notwithstanding today’s NAFTA USMCA driven reflex rally today, one puzzle to this market is the remarkable level of complacency in the face of potential market moving events, such as a trade war. From a technical perspective, complacency can be seen through the historically low level of weekly Bollinger Band on the VIX Index, which has foreshadowed volatility spikes (h/t Andrew Thrasher). The chart below depicts the 10-year history of this...
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Quantifying the fallout from a full-scale trade war
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Everyone expects Mr. Bond to die
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When should you buy gold?
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FOMC preview: Prepare for the hawkish surprise
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Surprising conclusions from advanced rotation analysis
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How to watch for signs of another Lehman Crisis
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Short Side of Long
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again, everyone. Welcome back to the Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan, thank you so much for tuning in today. We really appreciate it. Tiho, my friend, I want to ask how you’re doing today and what will we be covering in this episode number 21?Tiho Brkan: Jordan, I’m doing very well, thank you for asking. We’ll be looking at the precious metal sector, something that you are an expert in. So we’re...
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
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12 Charts Covering Current Stock Market Indecision
Global Macro Monitor
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FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate on overnight commercial bank funds less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th consecutive month. The REFFR has been negative during 87 percent of the months since the beginning of 2008, and 65 percent of the months this century, compared to just 17 percent in the months from 1954...
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Jamie And JP Mo = Class
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More “Cranes Of Dubai” In NYC
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Week In Review – October 12
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Auf Wiedersehen, Angela?
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Sector ETF Performance – October 12
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Global Risk Monitor – October 12
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Trump’s Poison Pills for China
A week ago I wrote about “China’s Syndromes.” I noted that aging demographic forces, which were significantly exacerbated by the Chinese government’s one-child policy, are already depressing the growth rate of real retail sales in China (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). As a result, the government is scrambling to expand its overseas military and economic power to counter the structural weakness at home. I argued that President Donald Trump is implementing...
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China’s Syndromes
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Bear Traps for Stocks?
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Financial Crisis of 2008 Part VII: FEDDIE
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The Financial Crisis of 2018 Part VI: FLAW IN THE MODEL
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part V: FAULTY INSURANCE POLICIES
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 Part IV: THE GREAT RECESSION