Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them
What a difference a month makes. The euphoria clearly fading even as the positive numbers grow bigger still. The era of gigantic pluses is only reaching its prime, which might seem a touch pessimistic given the context. In terms of employment and the labor market, reaction to the Current Employment Situation (CES) report seems to indicate widespread recognition of this situation. And that means how there are actually two labor markets at the...
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Yield Cap History Is Rock Solid, Just Not At All In The Way They Are Telling You
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What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere
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Medicare Alphabet Soup
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Looking Ahead Through Japan
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 15: The Mass Opiate of Our Time
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Beware Medicare Enrollment Deadlines
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1st Quarter 2020
Accommodation and food services; finance and insurance; and health care and social assistance industries were the leading contributors to the 5.0 percent (annual rate) decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All sectors of the U.S. economy contributed to the decrease, led by a decline in private services-producing industries....
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2020
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New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2019
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U.S. International Investment Position, 1st Quarter 2020, Year 2019, and Annual Update
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Personal Income and Outlays, May 2020
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2020 (Revised Estimate)
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Personal Income by State, 1st Quarter 2020
BK Asset Management
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FX Traders Shake Off Coronavirus Worries
FX Traders Shake Off Coronavirus Worries Daily FX Market Roundup July 7, 2020 Over the holiday weekend, the number of coronavirus cases in the US hit new record highs but Monday’s rally in currencies and equities suggest that investors are unfazed by the growing health crisis in the US. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 300 points as the euro closed above 1.13 against the US dollar for the first time in nearly 2 weeks. It is...
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Why Are Stocks Up?
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Dark Clouds Loom Over Strong Labor Data
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Risk on Holds Ahead of NFPs
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Will Non-Farm Payrolls be a Boom or Bust for Dollar?
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Markets Look Ahead to Labor Data
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FX: Quiet End to Q2 as Q3 Uncertainty Looms
Bull Markets
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Our portfolio
In the interest of transparency, here’s how my wife and I allocate our assets: 20% in various trading models (U.S. equities) 20% in a long term market timing model (U.S. equities) 20% in a buy and hold strategy (U.S. equities) 40% in bond ETFs (to be used for other investments outside of U.S. equities when those opportunities arise) My wife also owns a construction company, which constitutes a significant portion of our net worth. But since...
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
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August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
Calculated Risk
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Tuesday: Job Openings
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Staying Very Flat and Very LowMortgage rates barely budged for the third straight day, which is welcome news considering they are at all-time lows. [Top Tier Scenarios 30YR FIXED - 2.94]emphasis addedTuesday:• At 8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for May• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.
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July 6 COVID-19 Test Results
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AAR: June Rail Carloads down 22.4% YoY, Intermodal Down 6.6% YoY
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By Request: Percent Permanent Job Losers by Recession
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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May, Cash-Out Refinance Activity Declined
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1% in June
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Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
CEPR Blog
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The Problem of Medical Supplies Was a Stockpile Problem, not a China Supply Chain Problem
As Donald Trump tries to whip up anti-Chinese sentiment as part of his re-election campaign, many have joined in by complaining about our Chinese supply lines. The NYT joined this effort by highlighting the extent to which the U.S. and the rest of the world relies on China for medical supplies. While it is arguable whether the reliance on China for medical supplies or anything else is a big problem, that was not the main issue when it came to...
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Is it Impossible to Envision a World Without Patent Monopolies?
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Profit Shares Soared After the Great Recession: News You Can’t Get at the New York Times
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Counterpoint: Unemployment Benefits Should Depend on the Pandemic
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Economy Brings Back 4.8 Million Jobs in June, Unemployment at 11.1 Percent
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América Latina necesita acceder a recursos sin generar deuda: Emisión de Derechos Especiales de Giro
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Vacations for All
Charles Hugh Smith
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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?
Given the extremes of the stock market's frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even exist in 2024, at least in its current form? Given the current trajectory of the real economy into the Greatest...
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How We Got Here: the Global Economy’s 75-Year Stumble to the Precipice
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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield
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An Interesting Juncture in History
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The New Normal: Extremes of Neofeudalism, Incompetence, Authoritarianism and Relocalization
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Forget the V, W or L Recovery: Focus on N-P-B
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The Depression Dominoes Are Toppling
Commodity Blog
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Commodities Technical Analysis, May 25th — May 29th
The technical analysis, that includes the indicator data and major pivot points for WTI Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas in continuous charts as of May 24th, 2020: Crude Oil Indicators Moving Averages RSI Parabolic SAR CCI Long Neutral Long Neutral Floor pivot points 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 26.82 28.61 31.03 32.82 35.24 37.03 39.45 Woodie’s pivot points 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st...
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Gold Rises on US-China Tensions, Posts Weekly Loss
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Bitcoin Dips Below $9,000 and Drags Market Down with It
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Natural Gas Slumps as US Supplies Climb, Rig Count Dips
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Wheat Tops One-Week High of $5 Despite Global Supply Glut
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Soybeans Retreat From One-Week High Despite Bullish Developments
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Gold Plunges 1% on Stock Market Rally, COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate
South China Morning Post
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China’s copyright law amendment criticised as an ‘abusive use of power’ that weakens IP protection
The provision within Article 4 of China’s copyright law, which covers literary, artistic, as well as scientific works such as computer programmes, is intended to prevent copyright owners from hindering “normal distribution of works” and “harming the public interest”. Photo: Reuters
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Coronavirus: China tweaks graduate employment rate to include students who find ‘work’ as gamers, bloggers
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Severe backlog in Europe-bound trains at Chinese border, as coronavirus increases rail freight volume
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China province orders new checks on big cash transactions after bank runs
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Time for China to decouple the yuan from US dollar, former diplomat urges
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US lighting company Alpan joins an exodus of manufacturers leaving China to get around higher tariffs from trade war
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Australia sees ‘partial economic decoupling’ from China as Canberra weighs risks of over reliance after coronavirus disruptions
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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3/7/20: Services & Composite PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC
Note: charts below are not updated for full 2Q 2020 data on Global Services and Composite PMIs, which are yet to be reported for June and thus cover April-May period only. I will update these later.Starting with Services sector activity: BRIC Services index fell from a deeply recessionary 44.9 reading for 1Q 2020 to 40.9 in 2Q 2020, signalling accelerated rate of contraction in the sector across the four emerging markets economies. 1Q 2020...
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3/7/20: ECB Jumping the Proverbial Shark?
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2/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27
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2/7/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated
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2/7/20: COVID19 Update: World Cases and Deaths
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1/7/20: COVID19 Update: Three Charts on COVID19 Developments in Major Emerging Markets
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1/7/20: Manufacturing PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC
Curious Cat
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Huge Growth in USA Corporate Debt from 2005 to 2020
There are many problems with the extremely low interest rates available in decade since the too-big-to-fail financial crisis. The interest rates seem to me to be artificially sustained by massive central bank actions for 12 years now. Extraordinarily low rates encourage businesses to borrow money, after all how hard is it to invest in something that will return the business more than a few percent a year (that they can borrow at). Along...
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Retirement Portfolio Allocation for 2020
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Tencent Gaming
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
Dash of Insight
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Don’t Look Back!
The economic calendar is modest, and many market participants will probably extend their long weekends. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and jobless claims data will be the most important. Credit for today’s theme goes to Satchel Paige, one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Don’t look back; something might be gaining on you. Picture Courtesy of Simpson Street Free Press, where you will also find a nice article by Patricia Cazares,...
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Investing for the Long Term: Consider Potential Outcomes
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Sustaining a Fragile Recovery
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Investing for the Long Term: Time to be Wary
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Understanding a Mixed Message
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Hello, web admin again
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Greetings- a post from the web admin
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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Is the Stock Market Cheap?
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
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World Markets Update: July 6, 2020
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The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
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Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of June 2020
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Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Employment
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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Growth in June
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Powell’s Potent Put Powering Stock Market Meltup
From meltdown to meltup. The Greenspan Put, the Bernanke Put, and the Yellen Put all resulted from actions taken by the Fed under those three Fed chairs to give stock prices a boost when they seemed to need it to avert a meltdown. The Powell Put saved the day in late 2018 when the Fed chair started to pivot away from raising the federal funds rate in 2019 to actually lowering it three times instead. The S&P 500 soared 44.0% from December...
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MAMU: The Mother of All Meltups
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Economic Alphabet Soup: V, U, Z, W, L or Swoosh?
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US Declaration of (Cold) War
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Stock Market Keeping Score in the Three-Front War Against the Virus
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Fed Eats Buffett’s Lunch
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The Twilight Zone: Where Is Everybody?
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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ET Live! – 6.30.2020
0 Welcome to the June 30th edition of Epsilon Theory Live! As usual, we look forward to your pYou have reached the maximum number of free, long-form articles for the month. Please join here to read the rest of this content. Paid Members can log in here.
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Sideways: Observations on Pain and Privilege
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The Anxiety Algorithm: An interview with Adam Julian Goldstein
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What is Permissible
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The Lystrosaurus
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Another Brick in the Wall
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The Portnoy Top
Eurostat News Releases
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EU current account surplus €59.9 bn
Download PDF
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Volume of retail trade up by 17.8% in euro area
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Business profit share recorded sharpest drop to 37.9% while business investment is slightly down to 25.5% in the euro area
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Household saving rate all time high at 16.9% in the euro area while household investment rate down to 8.7%
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Euro area unemployment at 7.4%
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Industrial producer prices down by 0.6% in euro area
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Euro area annual inflation up to 0.3%
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 9-10, 2020
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on June 9–10, 2020. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15, 2020
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Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy
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Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10-11, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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Mike Trout Doubt’s America’s False Choice
We have always maintained that to reopen the economy was a false choice unless the public had confidence the virus had been contained. The U.S. is losing control of the COVID crisis due to the colossal failure of leadership by the Administration. Sure, deaths are way down but they lag the new case count by around two to four weeks. If the market rally is based on the lower death count, then it should be a short lived rally. The weekly...
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Canada Crushed The COVID Curve As The U.S. Struggles
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The Real History Of The 4th Of July
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Happy Birthday, America!
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The Mathematics Of Weight Loss
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Markets Have Jumped The Shark
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More Companies Jumping On Facebook Boycott Train
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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The 2020 Presidential election forecast from State polling: a Biden tsunami threatens to swamp the GOP Senate
- by New Deal democrat For the past two weeks I have posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days.Here’s how it works:- States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.- States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.- States where the range is between 5% and 10% are...
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Weekly Indicators for June 29 – July 3 at Seeking Alpha
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Frederick Douglass’s oration on the 4th of July (abridged)
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Initial and continued claims show stalling progress in rehiring
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June jobs report: the last hurrah of the wished-for “V-shaped” coronavirus recovery
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June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing
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Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled
Humble student of the markets
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Trading the Energizer Bunny rally
Mid-week market update: As regular readers are aware, I have been increasingly cautious about the equity outlook for the past few weeks as the market advanced. This has become the Energizer Bunny rally that keeps going beyond expectations. Where will it stop? One of the indicators that I have been keeping an eye on is the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI). In the past, whenever the NYSI has fallen to an oversold extreme of -1000 or less,...
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Brace for the second waves
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A bull market with bearish characteristics
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Back to basics: Is this market overvalued?
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The knife fight at the 200 dma
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Waiting for the inflection point
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What gold tells us about confidence
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Marx on the Corporation
(I wrote this post back in 2015, and for some reason never posted it. The inspiration was a column by Matt Levine, where he wondered what Marx would think of the modern corporation.) Let’s begin at the beginning. Capital, for Marx, is not a thing, it’s a social relation, a way of organizing human activity. Or from another point of view, it’s a process. It’s the conversion of a sum of money into a mass of commodities, which are transformed...
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Announcement: Money and Things
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Posts in Three Lines, Coronavirus Edition
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Endless austerity, state and local edition
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Daily News Op-Ed: Why Is Governor Cuomo Still Trying to Cut Medicaid?
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Talk on the Economic Mobilization of World War II
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Tracking COVID-19
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins 07-03-20
In this issue of, “The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins:” A Breakout Of Consolidation Updated Estimates As Earnings Begin A Quick Note On The Jobs Report Portfolio Positioning MacroView: The Fed Has Inflated Another Asset Bubble Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Upcoming Event – CANDID COFFEE Sign up now for this virtual “Financial Q&A” GoTo...
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 07-03-20
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 7-01-2020
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The Decade Long Path Ahead To Recovery- Part 1 Debt
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RIAPro: 15-Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game
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The Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality (Part I)
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Market Corrects As COVID Cases Surge 06-26-20
Marc Chandler
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
I began my career as a reporter on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, covering the currency futures and short-term interest rate futures for a news wire. Among other things, I learned that often, the locals, people trading with their own money and wits, would take the opposite side of trades of the institutional players. The institutional operators had deeper pockets but were looking to lay-off risk. It was a David vs. Goliath...
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New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk
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Are We on the Cusp of New Leg up in Risk Assets?
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Macro Considerations in the Week Ahead
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Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report
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July Monthly
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Second Verse Can’t be Worse than the First, Can it?
Mish’s Global Economic
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There is No Recovery in the Aerospace Industry
“COVID-19 Adaptation Plan”CEO Guillaume Faury announced a “COVID-19 adaptation plan” including a cut of 15,000 positions.“Airbus is facing the gravest crisis this industry has ever experienced. Our business in the civil airliner business has reduced with 40%, and we expect this to remain the level for the next two years. Then, in 2022 we think there will be an uptake in single-aisle business. Widebody deliveries will take longer to recover,...
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All In, All Out, Why Not?
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Worrisome Covid Mutation Is More Contagious
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Trump Extends Payroll Protection Program Another Five Weeks
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Covid-19 Update and Tweets of the Day
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Fake News: Students Throw Covid Parties Hoping to Get Infected
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Canada is the First Country to Break Treaty With Hong Kong
Naked Capitalism
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2020’s Plague of Locusts Spreads to Indian Subcontinent and South America
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. I thought I’d lighten up the mood by posting on a plague that’s actually visible: locusts (here is a photo essay in The Atlantic. See also previous NC posts in February and March. Wikipedia has a country round-up). Since the locust swarms of East Africa are already well-covered (“Crunch, crunch: Africa’s locust outbreak is far from over“), I’ll look at the Indian subcontinent (Nepal, Pakistan, India) and Latin...
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Links 7/5/2020
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Three Strikes against the Fed
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Links 7/4/2020
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How Largely Hidden Trends Are Shattering the Global Trade System
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Is Donald Trump Likely to Resign?
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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/3/2020
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
Global energy markets are still fragile, with Japanese LNG imports at more than 10-year lows in May, while fuel demand recovery across Asia remains patchy. S&P Global Platts editors also report on record US gas pipeline exports to Mexico, rapidly filling European gas storage and falling French winter power prices. 1: Japan’s LNG imports lowest since April 2009 What’s happening? Japan imported 4.58 million mt of LNG in May, down 18%...
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Of cars and cans: US aluminum and the pandemic
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Insight Conversation: Ian Johnston, Engenie
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From waste to fuel: the prospects for renewable natural gas in the US
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Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week
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Insight Conversation: Philippe Sauquet, Total
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Iron ore prices boom on supply shortages, record Chinese steel output
The Big Picture
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MiB: When America’s Warriors Need Help
Robin King did not expect to be involved with the Naval Special Warfare program. When her photographer husband decided to follow his older brother’s entry into the Navy SEAL program, the California State University at Long Beach graduate put her Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration and Finance to good use. (her previous employers were Walt Disney Company and McDonnell Douglas Corporation/Boeing). She began working in the...
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Torsten Sløk to Apollo from Deutsche Bank
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10 Monday AM Reads
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Jim Simons on Mathematics, Investing & Philanthropy
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Transcript: Robin King
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10 Sunday Reads
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Hamilton Lessons
The Capital Spectator
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Book Bits | 4 July 2020
● The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win Maria KonnikovaReview via Nature There has never been a more pressing need for digestible and coherent literature on rational decision-making. Enter The Biggest Bluff, psychologist Maria Konnikova’s depiction of her journey into professional poker. What at first seems a light-hearted story about a curious academic dipping her toe into shark-infested waters delivers a...
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Happy Independence Day!
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Research Review | 3 July 2020 | Business Cycle Analysis
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Macro Briefing | 3 July 2020
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2020
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Macro Briefing | 2 July 2020
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Major Asset Classes | June 2020 | Performance Review
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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67 Shot, 13 Fatally, Over Fourth of July Weekend In Chicago: Police
67 Shot, 13 Fatally, Over Fourth of July Weekend In Chicago: Police Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2020 - 19:00 Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, At least 67 people were shot, including 13 fatally, over the Independence Day weekend in Chicago, according to authorities. Nine of the weekend’s victims were minors, and two children died, ...
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China New Car Sales Crash 37% In 4th Week Of June
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State Dept Warns Top US Firms To Replace Supply Chains Exposed To China’s Xinjiang
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“Concept Incubator” Envisages Babies Being Grown At Home In A Pod
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Musk Tweets Link To “Limited Edition” Short Shorts At Tesla’s Online Store
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80% Of NYC Restaurants Couldn’t Afford June Rent
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Manhattan Apartment Sales Plummet, Worst In Three Decades