Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Stuck In Between: No Recession Today, But No Turnaround, Either
There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half a point last month from the month prior. Most of that was related to a curious surge in New Export Orders. Having dropped to just 41.0 in September, this...
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Red Flags All Over It-Wasn’t-Worse Payroll Friday
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More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global
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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose
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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts And Their Real Nature/Purpose
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Three (Rate Cuts) And GDP, Where (How) Does It End?
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The Big Risks Left (and Right) In Europe
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by State, 2nd quarter 2019 and annual update
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter ranged from 4.7 percent in Texas to 0.5 percent in Hawaii (table 1). Professional, scientific, and technical services; government; real estate and rental and leasing; and mining were the...
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Gross Domestic Product for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), 2018
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2019
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Personal Income and Outlays, September 2019
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Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate)
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, Second Quarter 2019 and Annual Update
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Prototype Economic Statistics for Puerto Rico, 2012-2017
BK Asset Management
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5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week
5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week Daily FX Market Roundup November 11, 2019 Monday was a slow start to a busy week for the currency market. The US bond market was closed for Veteran’s Day but the stock market was open allowing stocks to come record highs. Holiday profit taking was not the only reason for the market’s decline – the mood on trade turned sour again after President Trump said he hasn’t made a decision on tariff rollbacks. Over...
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HK Protests Escalate – USDJPY Drops Below 109.00
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Trump Denies Tariff Rollback, Triggers FX Pullback
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Tariff Rollback in Doubt? Risk FX on Pause
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USD/JPY Hits 5 Month Highs as US Confirms Tariff Rollbacks
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Risk FX Explodes on Positive US China Trade Speculation
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What to Expect from BoE as Currencies Fall on Trade Worries
Bull Markets
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Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
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August 9, 2019: leading indicators macro update
Calculated Risk
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Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in 2019 Through September
During the recession, I wrote about the troubles in Las Vegas and included a chart of visitor and convention attendance: Lost Vegas. Since then Las Vegas visitor traffic recovered to new record highs.However, in 2018, visitor traffic declined 0.2% compared to 2017, but was still 7.5% above the pre-recession peak.Convention attendance declined 2.2% in 2018 from the record high in 2017. Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and...
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U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 3% Year-over-year in October
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LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in October
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Sunday Night Futures
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Update on Yield Curve
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Schedule for Week of November 10, 2019
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AAR: October Rail Carloads down 8.4% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.8% YoY
CEPR Blog
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Freshman Democrats Seek to Make Corporate Oversight Routine Again
Rep. Ayanna Pressley introduced legislation last week to require the CEOs of the country’s largest banks to testify before Congress at least once per year. While this might seem a perfectly run-of-the-mill measure from an outside vantage point, it is a marked departure from this Congress’ aversion to most oversight (especially of corporations). Indeed, most ...
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Inflation Inequality and the Poverty Measure
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Declining Labor Shares of GDP: Is There Something to Be Explained?
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October Update on the State of Independent Federal Agencies
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Lobbying Arm of Private Equity Industry Pays E&Y for Misleading Report on PE’s Economic Contributions
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Trump’s Hidden Attention to Detail in Avoiding Accountability
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Comment on Davis, Haltiwanger, Handley, Lipsius, Lerner, and Miranda, “The Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts”
Charles Hugh Smith
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No Recession Ever Again? The Yellowstone Analogy
Just as forestry management's policy of suppressing forest fires insured uncontrollable conflagrations, so central banks' attempts to eliminate recessions insure a financial conflagration that will burn down the entire global financial system. The first task of those at the levers of neoliberal global capitalism is to deny that global capitalism is in crisis. One manifestation of this is the no recession ever again policy that is the implicit...
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The Middle Class Is Now The Muddle Class
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Chumps: China Is Playing Trump and His Trade Team
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The Political Parties and the Media Have Abandoned the Working “Middle Class”
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Has California Lost The Mandate of Heaven?
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Will MMT Work as Intended, Or Will It Trigger the Collapse of “Money”?
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Recent Interviews on a Variety of Topics
Commodity Blog
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Commodities Technical Analysis, November 11th — November 15th
The technical analysis, that includes the indicator data and major pivot points for WTI Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas in continuous charts as of November 10th, 2019: Crude Oil Indicators Moving Averages RSI Parabolic SAR CCI Long Neutral Long Long Floor pivot points 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 54.03 54.89 56.14 57.00 58.25 59.11 60.36 Woodie’s pivot points 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st...
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Gold Falls to Three-Month Low on Trade Optimism, Rising Yields
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Natural Gas Rallies on Smaller Supply Build, Winter Weather
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US Crude Slides on Larger-Than-Expected Weekly Build in Domestic Supplies
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Copper Edges Higher on Lower Chile Output, US-China Trade Optimism
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Bitcoin Stabilizes Above $9,000 As Litecoin Surges
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Gold Steady as US-China Trade Optimism Boosts Risk Appetite
South China Morning Post
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China’s new bank loans drop to lowest level in almost two years in October
[unable to retrieve full-text content]New loans in China fell to their lowest level in almost two years in October with manufacturers being forced to lower their prices amid slowing economic activity.Chinese banks extended 661.3 billion yuan (US$94.5 billion) in net new loans last month, well below the 800 billion yuan (US$114 billion) of loans estimated in a Bloomberg survey, and sharply down from the 1.69 trillion yuan (US$241.5 billion) in...
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Global funds seen buying more Chinese assets as reforms widen access to markets, Invesco survey shows
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China’s car sales drop for 16th consecutive month as October falls 4 per cent
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Chinese consumers break last year’s Singles’ Day record with 268.4 billion yuan in sales
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Chinese investors take a shine to Greece’s ‘Golden Visa’ scheme
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Hong Kong start-ups lack Shenzhen’s international focus, limiting opportunities, survey finds
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Growing ‘suspicion’ in US of doing business with China, ex-US diplomat says
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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16/10/19: Recalling the Celtic Tiger
Recalling the Celtic Tiger, edited by Brian Lucey, Eamon Maher and Eugene O’Brien is coming out this week from the series of Reimagining Ireland Volume 93, published by Peter Lang, DOI 10.3726/b16190, ISBN 978-1-78997-286-3.The book includes 12 mini-chapters by myself and multitude of contributions from some top-level contributors. Wroth buying and reading... and can be ordered here: https://www.peterlang.com/view/title/71254.
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16/10/19: Euromoney Risk Survey Q3 2019 Results
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16/10/19: Ireland and the Global Trade Wars
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16/10/2019:Corporate Bond Markets are Primed for a Blowout
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7/10/19: Bitcoin, ethereum and ripple: a fractal and wavelet analysis
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29/9/19: Divided ECB
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28/9/19: Evidence of Systemic Risk from Major Cybersecurity Breaches
Curious Cat
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
This post is an exploration of a specific stock Tucows (TCX). Tucows, based in Canada, has built from their domain registration business into a company with 3 businesses poised for predictable cash flow generation. In 2012 Tucows added Ting Mobile, a business that resells access to cell phone networks (Sprint, for CDMA, and T-mobile for GSM phones). This is not a flashy business but is a reliable cash flow generator. In 2015 they added...
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
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Real Estate Investing: Amazon’s Regional Office in Arlington, Virginia
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China’s Investments in Africa
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10 Stocks for 10 Years (2018 version)
Dash of Insight
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Stock Exchange: Is Sentiment a Factor in Your Trading?
Jeff: Joining me on the Stock Exchange is my colleague Todd E. Hurlbut, CMT, Chief Investment Officer at Incline Investment Advisors, LLC. Todd is the creator of the Emerald Bay model featured in this column. He is known as “Trending Todd.” And yes, that is a hint about his trading style. Summary With the US indices at a new all-time high, you might expect investor sentiment to confirm the reality. Instead, bullish money managers are in...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time for Investors to Act
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Stock Exchange: It’s difficult to argue with a market at new highs
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Analyzing Market Expectations
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings Season Opportunity?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Defining Moment for Financial Markets
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Stock Exchange: These Styles Will Come Back
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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World Markets Update
[unable to retrieve full-text content] All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 11, 2019. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 25.68% and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 22.99%. In third is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 20.87%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 7.15%.
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Yet Another Record High – We’re at 3,093
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Preliminary Mostly Unchanged
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The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Lifestyle of the Rich & Famous President
The US economy continues to grow despite recurring recession scares. By my count, they’ve triggered 65 panic attacks in the stock market since the start of the bull market during March 2009. (See our S&P 500 Panic Attacks Since 2009 chart book and table.) The panic attacks—which include both corrections and mini-selloffs—have been followed by relief rallies. As a result, the S&P 500 remains near its record high of 3025.86 on 7/26 (Fig....
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Another Upside Hook for S&P 500 Earnings?
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The Myth of Income Stagnation, Again
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No Recession In Purchasing Managers Report
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As Germany Sinks, Draghi Promotes MMT
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US Bond Yields Made in Germany
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From FOMO to FONIR
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Bye, Alexa…
To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. Leave aside the question of whether you care about wealth concentration or believe in any socially deleterious effects it might have. Ignore whether you believe that Amazon or any other Big Tech company is really an...
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The Age of the High-Functioning Sociopath
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US Recession Monitor – 10.31.2019
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US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 10.31.2019
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Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 10.31.2019
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Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 10.31.2019
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Inflation Monitor – 10.31.2019
Eurostat News Releases
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How satisfied are people with their lives?
Download PDF
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.1% in euro area
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Industrial producer prices up by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28
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GDP up by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28
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Euro area unemployment at 7.5%
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Euro area annual inflation down to 0.7%
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Tax-to-GDP ratio up to 40.3% in EU
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
Consistent with its January 2019 Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization, the Committee reaffirms its intention to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active...
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30-May 1, 2019
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19-20, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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Jamie Dimon On 60 Minutes
Great 60 Minutes interview with JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, last night. This is a must view, folks. Take 15 minutes to watch as it will be a very high return on your time investment. Jamie is very impressive and his leadership skills shine in the short talk with Leslie Stahl. JP Mo’s private-public partnership in helping to rebuild Detroit is a blueprint for rebuilding the rustbelt, in our opinion. Here is Dimon on JP Mo’s 2008...
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Beam me up, Scotty, it’s getting too real!
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China Still Looking For A Rollback
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Highest Paid Public-Sector Employee In Each State
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In The Age Of AI – Frontline
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Unit Labor Costs Hit 5-year High
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Bid Adieu To The Ownership Economy – Auto Subscriptions?
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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November leading reports point to slowdown, no recession
- by New Deal democratThe leading indicators reported so far this month show that, while manufacturing continues flat or even in contraction, there’s no significant indication that it has spread to other important sectors like residential construction or motor vehicle sales. And without the weakness spreading to their sectors, this looks similar to 2016, where there was a slowdown but no recession.This article was posted last week at Seeking...
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Weekly Indicators for November 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha
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Scenes from the October employment report: leading sectors remain poor
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Scenes from the October employment report: full employment?
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A note about turnout in yesterday’s elections
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September JOLTS report: mixed with “hard” positives and a “soft” negative
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Q3 GDP points away from a producer-led recession
Humble student of the markets
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A market beating Trend Model, and what it’s saying now
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...
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Time to buy Yom Kippur?
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A 5+ year report card of our asset allocation Trend Model
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The Art of the Deal (with Chinese characteristics)
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Whatever happened to the Momentum Massacre?
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How deep a pullback?
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What to watch for in Friday’s Jobs Report
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Presentation on Public Spending and Debt
I was in DC today at an event for legislative staffers organized by the Congressional Progressive Caucus, on fiscal policy and government debt. For anyone interested, the slides I used for my presentation are below. fiscal policy slides for 11-5-19
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CBO Interest Rate Forecasts, 2011-2019
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The CBO Just Handed Us Two Trillion Dollars
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In The American Prospect: The Collapse of Austerity Economics
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“Can We Afford a Green New Deal?”
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A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
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The Return of the Renter
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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The One Chart Every Millennial Should Ignore
The media is full of articles about the financial situation of Millennials in today’s economy. According to numerous surveys, they are saddled with too much debt, can’t secure higher wage-paying jobs, and are financially distressed on many fronts. Moreover, this is occurring during the longest financial and economic boom in the history of the United States. Of course, the media is always there to help by chastising boot-strapped Millennials to...
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The QE Rally Is On – How To Play It & What Happens Next 11-08-19
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Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice 1970-01-01 00:00:00
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What We Bought & Sold In Our Equity Portfolio
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 11-04-19
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Mauldin: Modern Central Banking Is More Vulnerable Than We Think
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10-Reasons Why Productivity Is Declining
Marc Chandler
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Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower
Overview: Escalating violence in Hong Kong and the continued fall in Chinese producer prices weighed on equities in Asia Pacific trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen nearly 7% during the five-week rally and is off to a weak start this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell around 2.6%, its biggest loss in three months, and China's CSI 300 was off 1.75%. Nearly all the local markets fell but Australia. European shares are also under...
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The Dollar Snaps Back after the October Pullback: Who has the Big Mo’ Now?
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Caution: Prices Diverging from Macro Drivers
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Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend
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The End of Economic Primacy
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Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar
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Markets Catch Collective Breath as Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Advance
Mish’s Global Economic
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Chinese Debt Imploding: Hospitals Need Loans From Nurses
Speculative loans in China are souring rapidly. Ruzhou, a city of one million people provides examples. Struggling to keep its economy growing, the city of Ruzhou spent big, but is now asking its health care workers for cash to stay afloat. Begging Nurses for Money The New York Times asks How Bad Is China’s Debt? Ruzhou, a city of one million people in central China, urgently needed a new hospital, their bosses said. To pay for it, the...
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Farage Backs Down, Won’t Field Candidates in Tory-Held Seats
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Single’s Day Shopping Sales Top $12 Billion in One Hour
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Number of Job Openings Falling Dramatically
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Johnson and Farage In Secret Deal? Who Forced Whom?
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How to Spend $45,000 on a $27,000 Car
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UK Election Math: What are the Odds of a Hung Parliament?
Naked Capitalism
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Billionaire Entryism: Prospects and Problems for Mayor “Mike” Bloomberg’s Presidential Run
By Lambert Strether of Corrente There certainly are rather a lot of political engaged Democrat billionaire wannabe Presidents: Starbucks’ Howard Schultz (memorably, a “person of means“) who flirted with running, Tom Steyer (of the oddly poor personnel choices), who actually is, and now Mike “Mayor for Life” Bloomberg. From Town and Country: Back in March of this year, billionaire and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg announced that...
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2:00PM Water Cooler 11/11/2019
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Links 11/11/19
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Roiled Repo Markets: Looking for Answers in All the Wrong Places
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How The iPhone Widens the US Trade Deficit With China: The Case Of The iPhone X
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30 Years After the Berlin Wall Came Down, East and West Germany Are Still Divided
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Electronic Voting Machine Debacle Continues in 2019, Setting Dangerous Precedent for 2020
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
Precious metals top this week’s selection of energy and commodity charts, as palladium prices continue to climb, but provide little upside for platinum. Plus: US natural gas prices, Middle East economies’ oil dependency, European coal-to-gas generation switching and Chinese LNG imports. 1. Palladium continues to roar: eyes on $2,000/oz What’s happening? Palladium, the darling of the precious metals world for the past 18 months, continues...
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Renewable power GO: market looks to new drivers of liquidity and supply
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Norway’s new oil bonanza holds lessons for Britain
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Commodity Tracker: 7 charts to watch this week
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Booming Asian coal demand to drive exports from North America’s West Coast
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Oil majors struggle to counter Extinction Rebellion narrative
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China Macro and Metals: Steel exporters target China amid warmer economic signals
The Big Picture
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MIB: Applying Academic Theory in Real World Practice
How do you take an innovative academic theory and apply it in the world of investing? That was the challenge confronting David Booth, the co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors. Booth was a student of University of Chicago economist and future Nobel Laureate Gene Fama, whose ideas about efficient markets and factor-based investing revolutionized finance. Booth & Fama discuss their 50 year relationship in our Masters in Business...
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MiB Live: Eugene Fama and David Booth (Full Video)
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10 Monday AM Reads
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2019 Global hedge fund industry outlook
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Transcript: Gene Fama & David Booth
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10 Sunday Reads
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Bill Burr On Netflix
The Capital Spectator
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Introducing: The ETF Portfolio Strategist
The depth and breadth of ETF choices offers unprecedented opportunity for asset allocation design and management. The downside is that keeping track of this realm is burdensome—until now. The Capital Spectator is rolling out a new research service to help manage the information overload: The ETF Portfolio Strategist (ETF-PS). The newsletter is still in development, but you can download today’s debut issue here. Questions and suggestions are...
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Macro Briefing | 11 November 2019
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Book Bits | 9 November 2019
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What’s The Best Methodology For Measuring Drawdown Risk?
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Macro Briefing | 8 November 2019
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Bull Market In US Bonds Still Running Hot In 2019
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Macro Briefing | 7 November 2019
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car
How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars. Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride. Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the ...
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Trump To Release “Tantalizing” Transcript Of First Ukraine Call This Week
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Economists Are Still Hooked On The Myth That Saving Is Bad For The Economy
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Bank Of America: Stocks Are The Most Expensive Since The Jan 2018 Meltup “But There Is No Alternative”
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The Globalists Have Declared War On Your Savings
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Google Secretly Harvested ‘Detailed’ Healthcare Data From Millions Of Americans
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Ron Paul Asks: Is The “Mother Of All Bubbles” About To Pop?