Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"? Some comments on an interview with Ivy Zelman• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in September Adding Austin, California, Des Moines, Houston and Maryland• Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974 Housing Starts Decreased to 1.555 Million Annual Rate in September• 'Some prospective buyers took a break' Existing Home...

The ‘Maestro’ Is Why Jay Powell Keeps Seeing (inflation) Ghosts

See, this is backward. And while it may seem overly pedantic, getting it right is actually a crucial insight (lack thereof) into pretty much everything. Its purpose is to maintain a different sort of money illusion (the original relates to how workers focus on nominal rather than real levels of compensation). This other money illusion relates to the hidden nature of money itself. We’re told central bankers are it, therefore everything must be...

Personal Consumption Expenditures by State, 2020

State personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased 2.6 percent in 2020 after increasing 3.7 percent in 2019 (table 1), according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The percent change in PCE across all 50 states and the District of Columbia ranged from 1.2 percent in Idaho and Utah to –5.8 percent in the District of Columbia. PCE by state highlights Expenditures on food services and...

Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"? Some comments on an interview with Ivy Zelman• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in September Adding Austin, California, Des Moines, Houston and Maryland• Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974 Housing Starts Decreased to 1.555 Million Annual Rate in September• 'Some prospective buyers took a break' Existing Home...

A Nation of Imposters

That's how we've become a nation of imposters: our imposter stock market hits a new high and the imposters cheer because it proves the scam is still working. You've read the warnings about the proliferating imposter scams: scammers posing as "officials", representatives of utilities or "a close friend of a family member" all exploit the fast-draining reservoir of trust in America to extract financial information out of the...

Commodities Corner: Lean Hogs Rally to Record High, Coffee Slips on Suez Canal Relief

Spilling a Cup of Cocoa   Cocoa futures ended the trading week below $2,400 per metric ton as demand concerns weighed on the agricultural commodity. Contracts are settling near their lowest levels since the beginning of November.   Cocoa’s direction is being mostly driven by the resurgence of coronavirus infections across Europe, a major market for the crop. As COVID-19 cases skyrocket, many jurisdictions are instituting new lockdowns...

China will set up a property tax pilot plan, taking small steps after years of dithering to tame home prices for common prosperity

[unable to retrieve full-text content]China’s legislature will enact a property tax in selected regions across the country, rolling out the pilot plan as part of a wider “common prosperity” programme to enhance housing affordability and tame runaway prices.The State Council, as the government’s Cabinet is known, will select the first regions and the timing for implementing the dutiable tariff on land, as well as owners of residential and...

23/6/21: Covid19 Deaths and Income Inequality

An interesting, although intuitively straight forward note on the determinants of Covid19 deaths: https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1407418434955005955. As Youyang Gu @youyanggu states, "I believe income inequality is the single best predictor of total Covid deaths in the US. Not income, but income *inequality*. The R^2 is surprisingly high: 0.35."There are some potentially important issues with this analysis (some are explored...

New Health Care Insurance Subsidies in the USA

The $1.9 trillion covid19 relief law (American Rescue Plan Act) includes large increases in health insurance subsidies in addition to the $1,400 per person payments to individuals. The law increases subsidies for 2 years. Under the new law, nobody will have to pay more than 8.5% of their income on health insurance. The government will also pick up 100% of COBRA premiums through September. COBRA is health insurance for people who’ve lost...

Bad News

It’s Derek again. My dad, Jeff Miller, died on May 7, 2021. It was a total shock. Even though he had been hospitalized for over two months, all indications were that he was recovering steadily. Just the day before, he had been deemed stable enough to be transferred out of a step-down hospital and into a rehab facility. We really thought the worst was behind us. With that in mind, I apologize for the delay in reporting the bad news. It’s...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 21% YTD, Record High This Week

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P had almost an entire week of solid gains as well as another record high. The index is up a whopping 21% YTD and is down 0.11% from Thursday.

Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform

The Mandarin Class

The Mandarin is the latest super-villain in the MCU (“Marvel cinematic universe” for those of you behind the superhero movie curve). Pretty sure he was originally an Ironman foe, dating back to the Stan Lee heyday. But I’m not using the term “mandarin” in the sense of a supervillain (although if the shoe fits …). I’m using the word in the sense of the bureaucrats who essentially ruled China from the 7th century AD until the...

Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy

Following an extensive review that included numerous public events across the country, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday announced the unanimous approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates its approach to monetary policy and serves as the foundation for its policy actions. The updates reflect changes in the economy over the past decade and how policymakers are...

How Container Shipping Works

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Weekly Indicators for October 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha

- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Yesterday I wrote about how house prices appear to be at their peak for this cycle. And in the weekly high frequency data, there is more evidence that a number of other commodity and transportation measures - but not oil! - are also either at or already on their way down from their respective peaks.This can be treated as good news - hooray, the supply chain bottlenecks are...

The Evergrande panic bottom?

Mid-week market update: The stock market gapped down on Monday on China Evergrande contagion fears. The technical outlook darkened further Tuesday when a rally attempt failed. The markets took on a risk-on tone this morning when Evergrande issued an ambiguous statement that a coupon due on its yuan-denominated bond. An agreement had been reached with its lenders but the statement didn’t specify the nature of the payment, or when it would be...

The Politics of Pay-Fors Revisited

A couple of weeks ago  I wrote a post on the logic of pay-fors. The key point of that post was that you might support the principle that public spending ought to be be paid for, even if you did not believe that government faces a genuine financing constraint. Specifically, you might think that linking spending to tax increases would (1) enforce a stricter prioritization of public spending, eliminating programs of minimal or negative social...

Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone? 10-22-21

Print Friendly In this 10-22-21 issue of “Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone?” Market Surges Toward Previous HighsIt’s Been A Very Long-Time WIthout A Deeper CorrectionA Sea Of LiquidityPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Is It Time To Get Help With Your Investing Strategy? Whether it is complete financial, insurance,...

The Euro and Sterling Remain within Tuesday’s Ranges

Overview: A new record high in the S&P 500 yesterday and news that Evergrande had made an interest rate payment failed to lift most Asia Pacific bourses, though Japan and Hong Kong, among the large markets, posted modest gains.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is pushing higher in the European morning to put its finishing touches on its third consecutive weekly gain.  US tech is trading off, and this is weighing on the NASDAQ futures while the...

Mish's Talk 1970-01-01 00:00:00

Maven is a best-in-class technology platform empowering premium publishers who impact, inform, educate and entertain.We operate the media businesses for Sports Illustrated and TheStreet, and power over 140 brands including History, Maxim, and Biography. Maven is publicly traded under the ticker symbol MVEN.

2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/2021

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Patient readers, the Assumption of Neera Tanden happened just as I was preparing the post, so I had to focus on it. More coming shortly. –lambert UPDATE All done! Bird Song of the Day It does bark! * * * #COVID19 Patient readers, I have started to revise this section, partly to reduce my workload, but partly to focus more as an early warning, if that is possible. Hopefully I will have a variant tracker map...

Join us at The Daily Shot

Please join us at The Daily Shot.The Daily Shot® (TheDailyShot.com) is a niche graphical newsletter (see sample) that is not meant for broad distribution. Our objective is to work with a small group of professionals who are interested in a brief unbiased daily overview of global macro currents. We do not offer investment advice or trading recommendations, and nothing in The Daily Shot® should be interpreted as such.The Daily Shot® began as an...

Peak oil is coming, it’s just a question of when: Fuel for Thought

October marks a historic but largely forgotten moment in the history of the oil sector, and something which is unlikely to ever be repeated if forecasts for the demise of the world’s most valuable fossil fuel prove accurate. Fifty years ago, BP – then known as British Petroleum and state-owned – discovered oil off the coast of Scotland in the once mighty Forties field with the help of a GBP370 million loan. The financing would be equivalent to...

Book Bits: 23 October 2021

● The Digital Silk Road: China’s Quest to Wire the World and Win the FutureJonathan E. HillmanSummary via publisher (Harper Business)From the ocean floor to outer space, China’s Digital Silk Road aims to wire the world and rewrite the global order. Taking readers on a journey inside China’s surveillance state, rural America, and Africa’s megacities, Jonathan Hillman reveals what China’s expanding digital footprint looks like on the ground and...

Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now

[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....

Shipping Containers From Stranded Ships Abandoned In California Neighborhoods

Shipping Containers From Stranded Ships Abandoned In California Neighborhoods Authored by Christopher Burroughs via The Epoch Times, Shipping containers stranded for weeks at sea are now reportedly being abandoned in California neighborhoods. Anaheim Street in Los Angeles has become one of the locations where an overflow of empty containers now line local streets, as nearby UCTI Trucking deals with ...