Macro
Alhambra Investment Partners
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Nearly A Trillion In Bank Reserves, Where’s The ‘Money Printing?’
Over the last five weeks, the Federal Reserve has been in crisis mode. As a consequence of all its balance sheet expansions, the expansive alphabet soup of programs, along with QE6, the level of bank reserves has risen by just over $900 billion. That’s the increase leftover for the banking system after everything adds up on the asset side and whatever gets subtracted as liabilities.Most people still call this money printing. Just shy of a...
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It’s Hard To See Anything But Enormous Long-term Cost
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The Empty Bank
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Dollar And Overseas UST’s
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Dollar, Not Bank
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Banks Or (euro)Dollars? That Is The (only) Question
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The Economic Relief Bill Makes It Easier to Donate to Charity
BEA
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 4th Quarter and Year 2019
Retail trade, finance and insurance, and utilities were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. An increase in private services-producing industries was partly offset by a slight decrease in goods-producing industries; the government sector increased. Overall, 17 of 22 industry...
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2020
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U.S. International Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2019
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Personal Income and Outlays, February 2020
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Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th Quarter and Year 2019
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Personal Income by State, 4th Quarter and Year 2019 (Preliminary)
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U.S. International Transactions, 4th Quarter and Year 2019
BK Asset Management
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Is the Relief Rally in FX Sustainable?
Is the Relief Rally in FX Sustainable? Daily FX Market Roundup April 6, 2020 Early signs of COVID-19 curve flattening in Europe and the US kicked off with a relief rally in currencies and equities this morning. USD/JPY jumped above 109 as AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose nearly 2%. This contemporaneous rally is a confirmation that investors are not just bullish dollars but also less pessimistic about other currencies. Risk appetite is improving as the...
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Job Losses Soar and Dollar Follows – Here’s Why
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Dollar Gains Strength Ahead of NFP
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After Worst Jobless Claims Ever, How to Trade Non-Farm Payrolls
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Dollar Shrugs Off ISM & ADP in Fear of Ugly Jobless Claims
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FX Traders Should Brace for a Volatile Q2
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Will Consumer Confidence Bring Down The Market?
Bull Markets
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Bull Markets 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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Our portfolio
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Announcement: BullMarkets.co is now a part of SentimenTrader.com
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What is the wild bond market saying about the stock market?
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Macro Index Model (NASDAQ 100 version)
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Weekly update: our models & indices right now
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Market outlook: is this a V-shaped recovery?
Calculated Risk
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Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:• Schedule for Week of April 5, 2020Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 37 and DOW futures are up 275 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $26.19 per barrel and Brent at $31.97 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $63, and Brent was at $70 - so oil prices are down by more than 50% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com...
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April 5 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
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April 4 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results Increase; California to Increase Testing Fivefold
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Schedule for Week of April 5, 2020
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April 3 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results per Day; More Testing Needed
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AAR: March Rail Carloads down 6.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 12.2% YoY
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CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Decreased Sharply, Now "Low"
CEPR Blog
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Who Exactly Are Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg’s Bundlers?
Beginning in the fall, the Revolving Door Project was one of a handful of voices drawing attention to Democratic primary candidates’ failure to release the names of their most important fundraisers. In op-eds, newsletters, and across other forums throughout the fall we repeatedly made the case that this consequential information could not stay hidden. Why ...
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Dem Prez Candidates Fundraising from Union-Busting Lawyers
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Lifting Hold on Public Charge Rule Evokes Antebellum Slave Codes
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Year in Review – What Changed at Independent Agencies in 2019?
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Marital-Status Discrimination Reduces Fertility in China
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This is What Minimum Wage Would Be If It Kept Pace with Productivity
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Poverty, the Poor People’s Campaign, and the Free College Tuition Debate
Charles Hugh Smith
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If Lockdown Is a Needless Over-Reaction, Then Why Did China Lockdown Half its Economy?
Recall that the initial deaths and related costs are only the first-order effects; policy makers have to consider the second-order effects. Everyone who reckons that the lockdown is needless and more destructive than the pandemic that triggered it has to answer this question: then why did China lockdown half its economy? The reasoning of those who reckon the lockdown is needless can be summarized as follows: 1. The lockdown is based on...
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When Bulls Are Over-Anxious to Catch the Rocketship Higher, This Isn’t the Bottom
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The Wonderful Insanity of Globalization
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Pandemic Pandemonium: The Tides of Globalization and Financialization Reverse
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What Happens as State and Local Tax Revenues Crater?
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The New (Forced) Frugality
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The Pandemic Is Accelerating the Breakdown That Began a Decade Ago
Commodity Blog
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Video: WTI Crude Oil Forecast for April 6, 2020
In this video, Chris from DailyForex provides his forecast for WTI crude oil on April, 2020. While hopes for some sort of an agreement about oil production cuts between the OPEC and Russia allowed prices to bounce recently, Chris remains bearish on crude. A deal between major oil producers can help the supply part of the supply-demand equation, but the demand part cannot be so easily fixed. If you found this video useful and want to see more...
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Video: Gold and Silver Forecast for April 6, 2020
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Commodities Technical Analysis, April 6th — April 10th
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US Crude Adds to Gains, Enjoys Best Weekly Gain in History
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Natural Gas Sheds 3% on Smaller-Than-Expected Weekly Supply Drop
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Bitcoin Breaks $6,500 Following Poor First Quarter
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Soybeans Slump 2% As Demand Hurts US Agriculture
South China Morning Post
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Coronavirus: China’s state pension fund under increasing pressure after fee cuts to help struggling businesses
[unable to retrieve full-text content]China’s short-term goal of pulling its economy out of the trouble created by the coronavirus pandemic is in danger of exacerbating the existing pressure on its national pension system already strained by an ageing population.Beijing announced in February that businesses could reduce or even stop contributions to provincial pension funds amid the outbreak in an effort to help them weather the current...
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Coronavirus: Asian multilateral bank lends US$355m to Chinese public health projects
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Coronavirus supercharges China digitalisation as stay-at-home economy thrives
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Coronavirus: desperate overseas firms turn to China as lockdowns hit home
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Coronavirus: nearly half a million Chinese companies close in first quarter as pandemic batters economy
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World at risk of second Great Depression due to coronavirus, says Chinese central bank
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China needs more, not fewer, immigrants if it wants long-term growth and prosperity
Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics
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5/4/20: US vs EU Coronavirus Update
Here is a visual comparing incidences of (officially reported) and deaths from (officially reported) Novel Coronavirus 2019 or Covid-19 in the EU27 and the US: Data through 04/04/2020
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5/4/20: Effective Corporate Tax Rates in the U.S.: 1980-2019
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2/4/20: US Record in Covid Response To-Date
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2/4/20: COVID19 in three charts
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26/3/20: Why “Families First Coronavirus Response Act” Can’t Fix America
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25/3/20: More than €3bn: The Need for Stimulus in Ireland
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24/3/20: Q2 2020 S&P 500 Earnings Outlook: Not As Ugly as It Will Be
Curious Cat
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Huge Growth in USA Corporate Debt from 2005 to 2020
There are many problems with the extremely low interest rates available in decade since the too-big-to-fail financial crisis. The interest rates seem to me to be artificially sustained by massive central bank actions for 12 years now. Extraordinarily low rates encourage businesses to borrow money, after all how hard is it to invest in something that will return the business more than a few percent a year (that they can borrow at). Along...
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Retirement Portfolio Allocation for 2020
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Tencent Gaming
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Tucows: Building 3 Businesses With Strong Positive Cash Flow
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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2018
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An Inverted Yield Curve Predicts Recessions in the USA
Dash of Insight
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Critical Thinking: Cyclical Stock Potential
At a time when many investors are taking a hard look at their portfolios, good information is more important than ever. Sadly, it is even harder to come by. There is no substitute for applying your own critical thinking skills to the opinions you see. A featured guest on CNBC, Senior Investment Analyst for a major firm, provided a test of that skill. (CNBC put the interview behind their paywall, but I record these programs to verify my...
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Quest for Clarity
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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Pundit’s Paradise – Anyone Can Play
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Why it is Crucial to Use the Right Time Frame
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett
Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 1.5% From Thursday
[unable to retrieve full-text content] The S&P 500 was down 1.51% today after a mixed week. The index rose on Monday, began to drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, and flip-flopped on Thursday. It is down 2.08% since last Friday and is down 22.97% YTD.
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COVID-19, The Markets, and The Economy
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The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
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March Jobs Report: 701K Jobs Lost
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLIg Plummets
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ISM Non-Manufacturing: Continued Growth at Slower Rate in March
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Markit Services PMI: “Business activity declines steeply amid COVID-19 pandemic”
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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The Most Common Sense Way To Stop Spreading the Virus (#masks4all)
Executive Order To Slow Spread. The President of the United States should issue an executive order immediately requiring everyone to wear surgical masks or washable DIY masks made from cotton t-shirts when they go out. Along with social distancing and widespread testing, #masks4all is likely to dramatically slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Experts Changing Their Minds on Masks. In our March 25 Morning Briefing, we wrote: “Hopefully,...
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Stock Market Fears Virus of Socialism Almost as Much as COVID-19
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Government Measures To Stop COVID-19 Triggering Pandemic of Fear
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Powell Says Economy Is ‘In a Very Good Place.’ Time To Worry?
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With Immunity to Coronavirus, US Stocks Melt Up with Impunity
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Fed on Hold as Inflation Remains Stubbornly Below Fed’s 2.0% Target
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Sinatra’s Stock Market: Fly Me to the Moon
Economic Populist
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OPEC report shows July’s global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Friday of this past week and is available as a free download, and hence it's the report we check for monthly global oil supply and demand data. As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t...
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3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate
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2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009
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Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March
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OPEC’s February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again
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December Trade Deficit Up 5.3% on Higher Imports of Cellphones, Drugs and Cars
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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty
Epsilon Theory
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Our Finest Hour
There is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true: Last week we wrote a brief note (Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders) to introduce our efforts to get personal protective equipment (PPE) directly into the hands of frontline heroes: healthcare professionals and emergency responders who put their own lives and...
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But Barry Sternlicht Says …
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Until Further Notice
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The Miracle Max of MBS
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Once in a Lifetime
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When the Story Bends
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Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders
Eurostat News Releases
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.9% in euro area
Download PDF
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Industrial producer prices down by 0.6% in both euro area and EU
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Euro area unemployment at 7.3%
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Euro area annual inflation down to 0.7%
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Hourly labour costs ranged from €6.0 to €44.7 across the EU Member States in 2019
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EU Member States granted citizenship to over 670 thousand people in 2018
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EU trade in goods balance close to €200 bn surplus in 2019
Federal Reserve FOMC
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Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support households, businesses, and the U.S. economy overall in this challenging time. The coronavirus pandemic is causing tremendous hardship across the United States and around the world. Our nation's first priority is to care for those afflicted and to limit the further spread of the virus. While great uncertainty remains, it has become clear that our economy will face...
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Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2020
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10-11, 2019
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019
Global Macro Monitor
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Classic Bear Market Bounce
Big move today in stocks with the S&P500 closing up 7.03 percent. We are so glad we are out of the market. We believe stocks are now in phase two of a vicious bear market, where after the initial sharp sell-off, the major indices retrace close to 50 percent of their initial down move. See the chart below, which illustrates how the Nikkei recovered almost 50 percent of its first big move lower before rolling over again. The market appears...
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Is This The Newest & Hottest Leading Economic Indicator?
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It’s Truly Going To Be Different This Time
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The Necessary Condition For Economic & Financial Recovery
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QOTD: Will Rogers
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Exponential Growth 201
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Europe’s Catastrophic Services PMIs
Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog
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Revisiting a prediction of exponential growth
- by New Deal democratA few weeks ago, I mentioned that: “Looking back over my private correspondence, I see where I first voiced the likely impact back on February 27. Here’s what I wrote then:——-“The CDC only has 250 working test kits. They have *none* to spare to check for community spread. Thus the virus will spread for several weeks undetected until tests are administered among the first very sick. By then it will be too late. .... “In...
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Lockdowns work II
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Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working
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Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: mandatory lockdowns start to work
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Weekly Indicators for March 30 – April 3 at Seeking Alpha
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Coronavirus dashboard for April 4: with lockdowns in place, testing still far behind, no action on necessary “test, track, quarantine” plan
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Coronavirus dashboard for April 2: voluntary social distancing failed
Humble student of the markets
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A stock market roller coaster
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following...
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Has the bull caught the coronavirus?
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Waiting for the re-test
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A Chinese glass half full, or half empty?
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Panic City!
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A Lehman Crisis of a different sort
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In search of a market bottom
J. W. Mason: SLACK WIRE
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Endless austerity, state and local edition
Brian Nichols of the essential Employ America has a useful, if depressing, roundup of the coming wave of state-local austerity. Some highlights: Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania have already announced hiring freezes; Ohio is also looking at a 20 percent across the board cut in state spending, while Virginia has canceled planned raises for teachers. Many cities, including New York, St. Paul and New Orleans, are laying off public employees. And as...
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Daily News Op-Ed: Why Is Governor Cuomo Still Trying to Cut Medicaid?
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Talk on the Economic Mobilization of World War II
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Tracking COVID-19
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Slides on WWII Mobilization
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Teaching notes on capitalism
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2019 Books
Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice
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Aaand It’s Gone…The Biggest Support For Asset Prices
Since the passage of “tax cuts,” in late 2017, the surge in corporate share buybacks has become a point of much debate. I previously wrote that stock buybacks were setting records over the past couple of years. Jeffery Marcus of TP Analytics, recently confirmed the same: “U.S. firms have been the biggest incremental buyer of stocks in each of the past four years, with their net purchases exceeding $2 trillion – Federal Reserve data on fund...
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Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risk (Full Report)
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#MacroView: THE 2020 – INVESTMENT SUMMIT
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 04-03-20
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Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality
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Michael Markowski: Markets Now At Tipping Point, Ride Will Be Epic.
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Shedlock: Recession Will Be Deeper Than The Great Financial Crisis
Marc Chandler
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Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains
Overview: Global equities are finishing the week on a soggy tone despite the 2%+ gains seen in the US yesterday. The extension of shutdowns, rising contagion and fatality rate, and imploding economies weigh on prices. In Asia, Korea and Indonesia bucked the trend to most minor gains. Europe is giving back yesterday's gains, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nearly flat on the week. US shares are paring yesterday's gains as well, Benchmark...
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Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites…for the Moment
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April Monthly
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Hemorrhaging Resumes
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March Ends like a Lion, No Lamb in Sight
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Monday Blues
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Technicals Turn Against the Dollar
Mish’s Global Economic
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Corporations Rush to Borrow Money While They Still Can
DBG848914 minsIt's really very simple... If you're uncertain about the future, but have the ability to borrow a shitload of money, why not do it? The smart play would be to borrow it and then do nothing with it. If it all blows over, you pay it off, and if not, you may not have to. Personally, I don't do debt and I am not going to start now even if it think I might get "free money". My partners will be taking advantage of the PPP...
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A Bronx Zoo Tiger Tests Positive for Coronavirus
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Coronavirus Deaths: How Badly Undercounted Are They?
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Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day
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“Guerre des Masques” the War of the Masks
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Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day
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Investigating the Claim “Countries Trying to Get Out of Treasuries”
Naked Capitalism
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Right to Repair and Ventilators: Saving COVID-19 Patients
By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. The United States faces a dire shortage of ventilators for treat ing its COVID-19 patients. The coronavirus crisis has elevated the importance of the right to repair, since keeping machines currently in service operating properly is imperative to saving as many lives as possible. U.S. PIRG, a public...
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Links 4/5/2020
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Capitalism Has Failed in Fighting Coronavirus
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Links 4/4/2020
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Services Sector Falls Off Cliff: First Data Points from the Eurozone Where Lockdowns Started Earlier
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What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Know About Hospital Emergency Rooms
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2:00PM Water Cooler 4/3/2020
Soberlook
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Why Won’t the Fed Raise Rates?
Guest post by Norman Mogil When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has stated blankly “Let’s just raise rates." Furthermore, he has said a quarter point is just a “drop in the bucket." We know where the big money banks stand on the issue. They need higher rates to achieve...
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The ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme takes shape
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What is Behind the Surge in the Corporate Debt
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The Big Disconnect in the Pension Industry
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The Looming Shortage in Government Bonds
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What the Bond Market is Telling Investors
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Unconventional Policies and Their Effects on Financial Markets
The Barrel Blog
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With pleading, threats and praise, US pushes Saudi Arabia to stop the oil bleeding: Fuel for Thought
“You can love me or hate me/I swear it won’t make me/Or break me/I’m going wherever the money take me” – Lil Wayne A dozen years after Louisiana-bred songwriter Lil Wayne rapped that verse on a bonus track on his album “Tha Carter III,” a strong mix of love and hate is being directed at Saudi Arabia from US oil state lawmakers. US President Donald Trump last Thursday, for example, tweeted of a global, Saudi-coordinated supply cut of 10...
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Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this week
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Jet fuel demand faces double blow from recession and coronavirus: Fuel for Thought
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Platts market on close shows commodity markets functioning despite COVID-19
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Coronavirus threatens US plastics recycling as states cancel collections
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China petrochemicals sector braces for global recession as coronavirus leaves economies reeling
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Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week
The Big Picture
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MiB: Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
In the latest “Masters in Business” podcast, I speak with Jonathan Miller, co-founder of Miller Samuel. He blogs at the Matrix Blog. Miller is an expert on real-estate appraisals and transactions, and runs one of the larger appraisal firms. He has created a variety of real-estate data analytics for various regions as well as nationally. He is also sought after as the go-to appraiser for many of the most expensive penthouses in Manhattan. (Our...
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10 Weekend Reads
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Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 3.3.20
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End of the Secular Bull? Not So Fast
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Bill Bernstein on Pandemics & Markets
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10 Friday AM Reads
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Mercedes-Benz E63 S AMG 4MATIC Wagon
The Capital Spectator
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Major Asset Classes | March 2020 | Performance Review
The value of cash as an asset class had its moment in the sun in March as coronavirus blowback cut deeply into markets around the world. Posting the only gain among the major asset classes in last month’s tsunami of losses, the S&P US T-Bill 0-3 Month Index exemplified its role as a port in the storm with a 0.2% gain. Par for the course for cash returns of late, but oh-so-welcome in an otherwise miserable month for risk assets. Beyond...
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Macro Briefing | 1 April 2020
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New York Fed Launches “Real Time” Index To Monitor US Economy
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Macro Briefing | 31 March 2020
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More Volatility Awaits Global Markets After Last Week’s Gains
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Macro Briefing | 30 March 2020
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Coronavirus Forecast Update: 29 March 2020
Tiho Brkan: The Atlas Investor
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Here’s What is Happening in the Economy Right Now
[embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Please tell us why you think it’s important to cover that right now.Tiho Brkan: Hello, everybody. Hello, Jordan. I hope you’re doing well. Thank you for having me on for another podcast....
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Gold’s Utility as Portfolio Diversifier
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What the Emerging Markets Currency Crisis Means for Your Portfolio
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 2 of 2)
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Where to Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 of 2)
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Tiho’s Analysis & Immediate Outlook for Stocks, Bonds & US Dollar
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Are Bond Yields Headed for a Major Breakout?
Zerohedge
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Bailing-Out The Bailed-Out
Bailing-Out The Bailed-Out Authored by Matt Taibbi via RollingStone.com, “I’ve never signed anything with a ‘T’ before,” Donald Trump quipped at the signing of the $2 trillion CARES Act. He reportedly wants his signature on coronavirus relief checks, as if they were Trump Plaza casino chips. This might be a fitting metaphor for America’s post-virus economic future. The new bailout ...
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Small Business Rescue Loan Platform Crashes As Firms Seek Virus Aid
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Boeing Troubles Continue
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Realtors Resort To Virtual Reality To Sell Homes During Lockdown
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US Army Colonel (Ret.): “Yes, The COVID-19 Pandemic Could Have Originated In A Chinese Lab…”
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US Hospitals Face ‘Severe’ Shortages Of Tests And Protective Equipment: Inspector General
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Watch Live: White House Holds Coronavirus Briefing As Outbreak ‘Peak’ Looms